Barack Obama’s opened up a 13 point lead on Mitt Romney in Colorado at 53-40. He’s gained 11 points in the state since December when he led just 47-45.
The formula for Obama’s gains is the same in Colorado as it is everywhere. He’s getting more popular and Romney’s getting less popular. In December only 45% of voters approved of the job Obama was doing to 50% who disapproved. Now he’s on positive ground with 50% giving him good marks to 47% who think he’s doing a poor job. The main thing that’s changed is Democrats really rallying around him. In December he was at 76/18 with them, but now it’s 89/8. The party is getting a lot more unified as the election comes closer.
Romney’s headed in the other direction. His net favorability has gone from -18 (35/53) to an even worse -29 (31/60). Romney had a healthy amount of appeal to Democrats earlier with 20% viewing him favorably but that’s now down to 11%. And he’s extremely unpopular with independents at 25/65.
In the head to head between them Obama leads Romney by 26 points with independents at 57-31. And Romney’s now getting just 7% of the Democratic vote, down from 14% on our December poll. This is the trend we’re seeing in most states- the primary campaign has caused much of Romney’s crossover support to evaporate and it’s also making him lose ground with independents.
Romney’s problem with women shows itself in a major way in Colorado. He’s down by 24 points with them at 58-34. With men the race is actually tied. Obama’s also up by an astounding 72-17 margin with voters under 30 in the state, a pretty good sign of where Colorado is headed politically.
I am not surprised and never considered Colorado a serious key battleground state. The only contested races appear to be in Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Nevada and Florida.
Mitt Romney will be an uninspired Republican nominee, but has a chance in those five states. A good media campaign and ground operation to turn out voters might lead him to a victory.
Otherwise, it will be on to 2016 for the GOP and Tea Party.