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Iran Nuclear Watch: The Two Red Lines; Update: Israel is Bluffing?
*****Scroll Down for Update*****
Iran’s overt nuclear installations
Senior United States military officials are concerned that Israel will soon lead an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities beofre the end of 2008.A senior defense official told ABC News there is an “increasing likelihood” that Israel will carry out such an attack, a move that likely would prompt Iranian retaliation against, not just Israel, but against the United States as well.
The official identified two “red lines” that could trigger an Israeli offensive. The first is tied to when Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility produces enough highly enriched uranium to make a nuclear weapon. According to the latest U.S. and Israeli intelligence assessments, that is likely to happen sometime in 2009, and could happen by the end of this year.
“The red line is not when they get to that point, but before they get to that point,” the official said. “We are in the window of vulnerability.”
The second red line is connected to when Iran acquires the SA-20 air defense system it is buying from Russia. The Israelis may want to strike before that system — which would make an attack much more difficult — is put in place.
Some Pentagon officials also worry that Israel may be determined to attack before a new U.S. president, who may be less supportive, is sworn in next January.
Well, no shit Sherlock.
President Bush, the United Nations and the European Union haven’t done anything to stop the Iranian Mullahs from acquiring nuclear weapons. The justifications for obtaining them are already floating around the blogs – “well. Israel has nukes, why shouldn’t Iran?”
So, Israel has a REAL concern that the mad men of Tehran could soon achieve a method for a second HOLOCAUST.
The United States and the rest of the world economies will be crippled while Israel and the United States neuter Iran. Americans will have to sacrifice. There will be a shortage of gasoline and oil based products.
But, not for long.
Update:
Is Israel’s threat to Iran a bluff?
Israel seems content to keep Iran and the rest of the world guessing uneasily about whether and when it might attack the Islamic Republic’s nuclear facilities.
It has done little to douse speculation stoked by a big Israeli air force exercise last month, an Israeli cabinet minister’s remark that military action was “inevitable” and a prediction by former U.S. official John Bolton that this might occur in the final weeks of President George W. Bush’s term.
Israel is NOT going to wait around until Iran possesses Breakout Capability for their nuclear weapons program.
Whenever the Breakout Capability is imminent or the two red lines are crossed Israel will act – alone if need be.
By this fall?
Possible…..
Previous:
Iran Nuclear Watch: One Year to Stop Iranian NUKE
Iran Nuclear Watch: Iran Will Play Disrupt Gulf Oil Route Card
Iran Nuclear Watch: Ahmadinejad – The West Could NOT Break Us
Iran Nuclear Watch: The Red Line
Iran Nuclear Watch: Britain to Increase Iran SanctionsIran Nuclear Watch: Ahmadinejad Taunts Bush
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Iran Nuclear Watch: One Year to Stop Iranian NUKE
T minus one year and counting before Iran can threaten or nuclear blackmail Israel.A former head of Mossad has warned that Israel has 12 months in which to destroy Iran’s nuclear programme or risk coming under nuclear attack itself. He also hinted that Israel might have to act sooner if Barack Obama wins the US presidential election.
The United States and European Union have fiddled while the uranium centrifuges have been spinning at Natanz.
Israel will have NO choice but to bomb Iran if they do not stand down from their nuclear weapons program.
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Iran Nuclear Watch: Iran Will Play Disrupt Gulf Oil Route Card
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (R) shakes hands with General Yahya Rahim Safavi — the former chief of the Revolutionary Guards — while his newly-appointed successor General Mohammad Ali Jaafari looks on during a meeting in Tehran. Khamenei pledged that Iran will never yield to Western pressure over its nuclear program, and it would outsmart “drunken and arrogant†Western opponents in the standoff. (September 2007)
In a shocker, Iran says if it is attacked that they will disrupt Persian Gulf Oil routes and attack neighboring states that support the attackers.The Revolutionary Guards said Iran would impose controls on shipping in the vital Gulf oil route if Iran was attacked and warned regional states of reprisals if they took part, a newspaper reported on Saturday.
Fear of an escalation in the standoff between the West and Iran, the world’s fourth largest oil producer, have been one factor propping up sky-high oil prices. Crude hit a record level on international markets near $143 a barrel on Friday.
Speculation about a possible attack on Iran because of its disputed nuclear ambitions has risen since a report this month said Israel had practiced such a strike, prompting increasingly tough talk of retaliation, if pushed, from Tehran.
“Naturally every country under attack by an enemy uses all its capacity and opportunities to confront the enemy,” Guards commander-in-chief Mohammad Ali Jafari told Jam-e Jam newspaper in some of the toughest language Iran has used so far.
Analysts say Iran may not match the firepower of U.S. forces but could still cause havoc in the region using unconventional tactics, such as deploying small craft to attack ships, or using allies in the area to strike at U.S. or Israeli interests.
Well, DUH.
Flap thought if Israel or the United States and its allies militarily attacked Iran’s nuclear sites it was tantamount to all out war with Iran. The United States would blockade Iran’s ports, destroy its gasoline refineries and destroy its navy, air force and bomb the crap out of its army.
In the meantime, the world oil markets would be disrupted untl the United States won the war and secured the Persian Gulf from attack.
Of course, Iran would attack Israel and United States forces in Iraq and Kuwait. Hezbollah would attack Israel from the north. Israel and the United States would unleash a firestorm of bombing of Iran that the world has never seen.
Should Iran fire missiles into Israel, Israel would respond by bombing Iran with its nuclear arsenal and turn Tehran into a glass factory.
So, does Iran really gain much by saber rattling. They will lose in an all out war.
Here is what Iran can do to disrupt the Gulf but the consequences would be far more disastrous for them.
Technorati Tags: Mohammad Ali Jaafari, Iran, Israel
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Iran Nuclear Watch: Ahmadinejad – The West Could NOT Break Us
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad Ahmadinejad speaking at the opening ceremony of the 29th Annual Session of the OPEC Ministerial Council in the city of Isfahan, south of Tehran, June 17, 2008, has said the West has failed to break Iran’s will in the nuclear standoff, days after world powers presented Tehran with a new offer aimed at ending the crisis
The President of Iran is correct.President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Thursday the West has failed to break Iran’s will in the nuclear standoff, days after world powers presented Tehran with a new offer aimed at ending the crisis.
“In the nuclear issue, the bullying powers have used up all their capabilities but could not break the will of the Iranian nation,” Ahmadinejad was quoted as saying by state television.
World powers — Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States — on Saturday offered Tehran a new package of technological and economic incentives in exchange for suspending uranium enrichment activities.
Ahmadinejad’s comments were his first statement on the nuclear crisis since the offer was presented but it was not clear if they represented a reaction to the proposal.
The Iranian government spokesman has already said Tehran will reject any offer demanding it suspends uranium enrichment.
The United States and the European Union have been twiddling their thumbs with proposals of meaningless economic and political sanctions while Iran has been developing the ability to manufacture nuclear missile delivery systems and nuclear warheads.
This must be scaring Israel to action or Iran will soon nuclear blackmail them into leaving Israel.
Previous:
Iran Nuclear Watch: The Red Line
Iran Nuclear Watch: Britain to Increase Iran Sanctions
Technorati Tags: Iran, Iran Nuclear, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
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Iran Nuclear Watch: The Red Line
A map locating Iran’s nuclear facilities. Iran has insisted any demands for it to suspend sensitive atomic activities would cross its “red line”, days after world powers submitted a new package aimed at ending the nuclear standoff.
Shocker: Iran says NO it will NOT suspend uranium enrichment.Iran on Tuesday insisted any demands it should suspend sensitive atomic activities would cross its “red line”, days after world powers submitted a new package aimed at ending the nuclear standoff.
“We have said several times that uranium enrichment is Iran’s red line and we must have this technology,” Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Reza Sheikh Attar said, quoted by the state IRNA news agency.
Suspending uranium enrichment — which the West fears could be used to make a nuclear weapon — is the key demand in the deal offered Saturday to Tehran by EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana on behalf of world powers.
The package offers Iran talks on a package of technological and economic incentives, so long as Tehran suspends uranium enrichment.
As Flap has been writing about for years now. Iran WILL NOT voluntarily suspend uranium enrichment. So, the choice is clear to the West:
1. Allow Iran to become a nuclear weapons possessing country
2. Militarily destroy Iran’s nuclear weapon producing capacity
3. Embargo Iran and sanction them so severely that they are “forced” to forego uranium enrichment.
Apparently the EU and United States are not serious – even yet!
Previous:
Iran Nuclear Watch: Britain to Increase Iran Sanctions
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Iran Nuclear Watch: Britain to Increase Iran Sanctions
US President George W. Bush holds talks with British Prime Minister Gordon Brown at No. 10 Downing Street. Brown announced new troops for Afghanistan and tougher sanctions on Iran, delighting Bush
After talking with President Bush, U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown has agreed to tighter sanctions against Iran.“Our message today to the Iranian people is that you do not have to pursue the path of confrontation,†he said during a press conference with Mr. Bush.
“Today, Britain will urge Europe and — Europe will agree — to take further sanctions against Iran,†Mr. Brown said.
Specifically, he said, the sanctions would be designed to freeze the assets of Iran’s biggest bank, Bank Melli.
“We will take action today that will freeze the overseas assets of the biggest bank in Iran, the Melli bank, and secondly, action will start today for a new phase of sanctions on oil and gas,†he said, without elaborating.
For his part, President Bush refused to rule out any action in Iran, saying “all options†were on the table — a formula he has used that has been interpreted as not precluding military strikes.
Mr. Brown said that Britain would “do everything possible to maintain the dialogue†with Iran over its nuclear program. “But we are also clear that if Iran continues to ignore United Nations resolutions and continues to ignore our offers of partnership, we have no choice but to intensify sanctions.â€
YAWN. Another sign that Britain and the United States are “PUNTING” this issue to the next President.
And, in a shocker:A Q Khan may have sold small bomb design
The West has been weak to crack down on nuclear proliferation and what a surprise that Iran may have received advanced uranium enrichment technology and blueprints for an advanced nuclear weapon from the A Q Khan network.
“These would have been ideal for two of Khan’s other major customers, Iran and North Korea,” wrote Albright, now president of the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security. “They both faced struggles in building a nuclear warhead small enough to fit atop their ballistic missiles, and these designs were for a warhead that would fit.”
NOT
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Iran Nuclear Watch: Ahmadinejad Taunts Bush
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, clinches his fist, as he delivers a speech in a public gathering at the city of Shahr-E- Kord, some 330 miles (550 kilometers) south of the capital Tehran, Iran, Wednesday, June 11, 2008. Ahmadinejad said Wednesday that U.S. President George W. Bush’s era ‘has come to an end’ and he has failed in his goals to attack Iran and stop its nuclear program
Iran President Ahmadinejad is correct in taunting President Bush. President Bush has done NOTHING but talk about Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon.“It’s Bush’s dream to harm Iran’s nation,” Ahmadinejad
said today during a televised speech in the western Iranian city
of Shahre Kord. “You thought you would be able to do something
but your term came to an end and you will not be capable of
harming even 1 centimeter of Iran’s sacred land.”Iran won’t stop its nuclear work, Ahmadinejad stressed.
“You think that you can force the Iranian nation to back
down from its legitimate rights through threats and pressures,”
Iran’s state-run Islamic Republic News Agency cited Ahmadinejad
as saying today in another speech, in the western town of Sefid
Dasht. He added, “The Iranian nation will not retreat even 1
inch.”The European Union who is threatened directly by Iran continues to insist on negotiations and China and Russia, Iran’s oil business partners, block the United Nations Security Council.
So, there will be either a military intervention by Israel and the United States or Iran will achieve its goal of becoming a nuclear weapon possessing country.
Flap cannot believe that President George W. Bush “punted” on this issue.
But, he did.
Previous:Iran Nuclear Watch: Israel Issues Another Warning
Iran Nuclear Watch: The IAEA Inspectors
Iran Nuclear Watch: Israel – Iran Could Have Nukes by 2009
Iran “Reminded†with Deployment of USS Abraham Lincoln
Iran Nuclear Watch: Iran Demands Azerbaijan Deliver Russian Nuclear Shipment
Shocker: Iran Threatens To Eliminate Israel
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Iran Nuclear Watch: Israel Issues Another Warning
Deputy Prime Minister of Israel Shaul Mofaz, seen in April, on Friday warned that Iran would face attack if it pursues what he said was its nuclear weapons program
Another warning from Israel today re: Iran’s development of nuclear weapons.
An Israeli deputy prime minister on Friday warned that Iran would face attack if it pursues what he said was its nuclear weapons programme.
“If Iran continues its nuclear weapons programme, we will attack it,” said Shaul Mofaz, who is also transportation minister.
“Other options are disappearing. The sanctions are not effective. There will be no alternative but to attack Iran in order to stop the Iranian nuclear programme,” Mofaz told the Yediot Aharonot daily.
He stressed such an operation could only be conducted with US support.
A former defence minister and armed forces chief of staff, Mofaz hopes to replace embattled Ehud Olmert as prime minister and at the helm of the Kadima party.
Flap cannot help but think that the rise of Barack Obama as the Democrat Presidential nominee is driving Israel to pursuing action while George W. Bush is President. Obama is an unknown and has stated he would meet with Iran’s President Ahmadinejad without preconditions.
In the meanime, the uranium enrichment centrifuges at Natanz continue to spin.
Previous:
Iran Nuclear Watch: The IAEA Inspectors
Iran Nuclear Watch: Israel – Iran Could Have Nukes by 2009
Iran “Reminded†with Deployment of USS Abraham Lincoln
Iran Nuclear Watch: Iran Demands Azerbaijan Deliver Russian Nuclear Shipment
Shocker: Iran Threatens To Eliminate Israel
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Iran Nuclear Watch: The IAEA Inspectors
Michael Ramirez on Barack Obama and Iran
President Bush, the European Union and the United Nations have been unable to contain Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
But, never fear, Barack Obama WILL talk to Iran President Ahmadinejad and we will be on the rim of a golden world.
Right.
Previous:
Iran Nuclear Watch: Israel – Iran Could Have Nukes by 2009
Iran “Reminded†with Deployment of USS Abraham Lincoln
Iran Nuclear Watch: Iran Demands Azerbaijan Deliver Russian Nuclear Shipment
Shocker: Iran Threatens To Eliminate Israel
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Iran Nuclear Watch: Israel – Iran Could Have Nukes by 2009
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (2nd L) visits the Natanz nuclear enrichment facility, 350 km (217 miles) south of Tehran, April 8, 2008
Israel now believes that Iran with its uranium enrichment centrifuges spinning at Natanz will be able to begin enriching uranium on a military scale this year.
The new assessment moves up Israel’s forecasts on Teheran’s nuclear program by almost a full year – from 2009 to the end of 2008. According to the new timeline, Iran could have a nuclear weapon by the middle of next year.
Iran, a senior defense official said on Tuesday, had encountered numerous technical obstacles on its way to enriching uranium but was now on track to master the technology needed to enrich uranium within six months.
Israel is also concerned that Teheran is developing a cruise missile that can evade interception by the Arrow, the IDF’s anti-ballistic missile defense system. Iran is suspected of having smuggled Ukrainian X-55 cruise missiles and using them as models for an independent, domestic project. A cruise missile, which flies at low altitudes to dodge radar detection and interception, could be used to carry a nuclear warhead.
In the meantime, the United States sits idly by as Iran exports extremists to kill American soldiers in Iraq.
Flap agrees with John Bolton on this one.
So, will the United States continue its emphasis on economic and political sanctions while Iran develops BREAKOUT CAPABILITY?
Stay tuned…….
Previous:Iran “Reminded†with Deployment of USS Abraham Lincoln
Iran Nuclear Watch: Iran Demands Azerbaijan Deliver Russian Nuclear Shipment
Shocker: Iran Threatens To Eliminate Israel
