California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, left, talks with Marco Rodriquez, seated at right, during a break in the taping of a Spanish-language talk show at the Univision Television station held in Sacramento, Calif., Tuesday, Oct. 25, 2005. Schwarzenegger appeared on the policy and political debate program ‘Voz Y Voto’, where he discussed his ballot initiatives on the upcoming Nov. 8th special election and took a few questions from the audience. The show is to be broadcast Saturday.

The ASSociated Press and San Francisco Chronicle has Select Hispanic audience questions Schwarzenegger on immigration.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger took his special election campaign before a hand-picked Hispanic audience that was more interested in asking him about amnesty and driver’s licenses for illegal immigrants than his “year of reform” ballot measures.

Schwarzenegger’s appearance Tuesday in the capital studio of Spanish-language television network Univision was another step in his attempt to connect with voters two weeks before they decide his proposals to change state government.

Schwarzenegger on the road………

Will his personal poll numbers improve?

The Governor is in a two minute drill towards the California special election.

But, the unions and their leftie lackies are already moaning about the event.

Critics immediately assailed the Univision session because it did not provide time for any of his opponents to speak. Univision’s chairman, Jerry Perenchio, is one of the governor’s largest campaign supporters, having donated more than $3 million to Schwarzenegger campaign committees since he took office two years ago.

“This amounts to a one-hour infomercial for the governor,” said Roger Salazar, a spokesman for the Alliance for a Better California, the coalition of labor groups opposing the governor’s ballot agenda. “It is nothing more than one of his biggest contributors providing him the opportunity to deliver his message on his terms.”

The question-and-answer session will be broadcast statewide Saturday on Univision stations. The company controls two broadcast networks and is the nation’s dominant Spanish-language media company.

Flap recommends a debate.

How about Schwarzenegger vs. Lt. Governor Cruz Bustamante in Fresno this Friday?

How about it, Alliance for a Better California, and the California Teachers Association?

Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77

Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page

California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger responds to questions during the Special Election Showdown, at the Dean Lesher Regional Center for the Arts in Walnut Creek, Calif., Monday Oct. 24, 2005. Schwarzenegger and state Sen. Don Perata and others appeared at the forum to discuss issues in California’s upcoming election.

The ASSociated Press has Schwarzenegger: Special Election Crucial.

Defending his November special election before an audience of voters, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger said Monday the ballot initiatives are crucial to continue changes he launched two years ago.

He cast the Nov. 8 election as the next step of the 2003 recall election that propelled him to office. Voters, he said, sent him to Sacramento to rebuild the state’s economy and fix a moribund political system.

“We need reform. We have a broken system. That’s why you sent me to Sacramento — to fix the broken system,” he said. “Please give me the tools.”

He contended his policies have created 400,000 new jobs and billions in new revenue.

The 90-minute forum in the east San Francisco Bay area was the first time Schwarzenegger sat for an extended time to field unscripted questions from an audience not chosen by his staff.

Dan Weintraub of the Sacramento Bee was live-blogging the event.

Check out his coverage here.

My take

We’ll have to see if anybody’s watching this forum or will watch others if they are held. But if the governor is smart, he’ll barnstorm the state and do them in every city. Most voters haven’t seen Schwarzenegger since the campaign, other than in brief snips on the news. They’ve seen and heard him portrayed as an ogre, a bully, an idiot. But his command of the issues is far better than it was two years ago, and he can articulately make his case for his measures, even in the face of tough questions from voters who disagree with him. He relied on his stump speech material at times, but he wasn’t overly scripted. He mixed in humor. He used anecdotes to make his points. He wasn’t perfect. But he was close to it. His opponents weren’t terrible, but they were what they were: defenders of the status quo. If two-thirds of Californians think the state is going in the wrong direction, they’re not likely to be convinced by these folks that everything is just fine.

Sacramento Bee Columnist Dan Walters and Proposition 77’s Steve Poizner, Photo Courtesy of Dan Weintraub

The Governor is performing well and although he has already won the special election, he may be initiating a new era in California governance.

Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77

Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page

President Bush and wife Laura at the dedication of an Air Force One exhibit at the Reagan Library.

The San Francisco Chronicle has Bush visit stirs election anxiety Governor skips event — his backers call trip ill-timed

President Bush sought to draw a link between himself and former President Ronald Reagan on Friday, comparing his war on terrorism to the Cold War — even as a political cold war continued between Bush and Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who was a glaring no-show during the president’s two-day California trip.

Reagan “recognized that freedom was opposed by dangerous enemies,” Bush said at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library here. “And … America has always prevailed by standing firmly on principles and never backing down in the face of evil.”

But Bush’s visit, at a party fundraiser Thursday night and at the dedication Friday of an Air Force One exhibit at the library before an audience of high-profile state and national Republicans, was termed “ill-timed” by supporters of the governor, who is facing a difficult special election in just over two weeks.

So, what affect will this FLAP have on the California Special Election?

Well, at least the Governor did not have to witness the Bush/Arnold hybrid protesters.

“The governor’s got challenges, and it’s a very tense time for both of them,” said Ken Khachigian, a former Reagan speechwriter and longtime political adviser. “I think they’re both extremely focused on what they’re doing, and as a result, the challenges are higher and the emotions rise.

“… The president’s trip to California will have no effect on the outcome of the special election, and the governor’s not showing up here will have no effect on President Bush,” Khachigian said. “Staff people just got carried away on both sides.”

Agreed!

The President had a good event and the Governor had a few bad press pieces but the FLAP will all but be forgotten by Monday’s press cycle.

Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, George Bush, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77, Bear Flag League

Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page

and

Cross Posted to the SoCal Law Blog

Previously on Flap, California Special Election Watch: New Poll Results

A new Survey USA Poll has been released.

In an election today, 10/18/05, 3 weeks to the 11/8/05 vote, California voters approve Proposition 73, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76 and Proposition 77, according to an exclusive SurveyUSA poll of 613 likely voters.

Support for all 5 measures is strongly tied to approval of Governor Schwarzenegger. Those who approve of the job the Governor is doing, vote overwhelmingly “Yes” on all 5 Propositions. Those who disapprove of the job the Governor is doing oppose all 5 Propositions. Interest in ballot measures intensifies as the election approaches and ad dollars are spent to influence voters. These numbers can and should be expected to fluctuate,

Proposition 73 requires that physicians notify the parent of a pregnant minor at least 48 hours before performing an abortion. If the special election were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, would you vote Yes on Proposition 73? Or would you vote No?

60% Yes
38% No
2% Undecided

Proposition 74 extends the probationary period for new teachers from 2 years to 5 years, and makes it easier to dismiss teachers with unsatisfactory performance evaluations. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on Proposition 74? Or would you vote No?

53% Yes
45% No
1% Undecided

Proposition 75 prohibits public employee unions from using union dues for political purposes without the written consent of union members. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on Proposition 75? Or would you vote no?

56% Yes
42% No
2% Undecided

Proposition 76 limits growth in state spending so that it does not exceed recent growth in state revenues. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on Proposition 76? Or would you vote no?

54% Yes
41% No
5% Undecided

Proposition 77 changes the way California draws boundaries for Congressional and legislative districts. District boundaries would be drawn by a panel of retired judges and approved by voters in a statewide election. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on 77? Or would you vote no?

54% Yes
41% No
5% Undecided

This is continued good news for the Governor.

Absentee ballots have been mailed and requests for them are greater than Arnold’s last election in 2003.

Elections officials in Los Angeles County, which is home to nearly a quarter of California’s registered voters, already have sent out 445,784 absentee ballots. That’s up from 338,747 at the same point in the 2004 primary race and 350,747 in the recall.

“We’re actually running closer to the numbers we saw in the 2004 general election,” said Kristin Heffron, chief deputy registrar for Los Angeles County.

There’s a similar situation in Santa Clara County, where the 200,972 absentee ballots already mailed to voters are more than the 132,965 issued in the 2004 primary and not far behind the 232,231 mailed out for the November general election.

“I think there’s interest out there,” said Alma Rosas, a spokeswoman for the Santa Clara Country registrar. “It’s not like a governor’s race, with a 50 percent turnout, or the 70 percent that turns out for a presidential race, but we’re looking at a 40 to 45 percent turnout, like for a primary.”

Stay Tuned.

Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77

Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page

The Hoover Institution has Poll: Race Too Close to Call for Two Schwarzenegger Propositions.

A Stanford University-Hoover Institution-Knowledge Networks (S-H-KN) online survey shows two of the statewide ballot propositions backed by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in a statistical dead heat.

Prop. 74 (Teacher Tenure) and Prop. 77 (Redistricting) both split likely California voters right down the middle.

Another Schwarzenegger initiative, Prop. 76 (State Spending and School Funding Limits), is trailing by a wide margin, with 70% of likely California voters saying they will vote against it.

Prop. 75 (Public Employee Union Dues), endorsed by the Governor, currently has a commanding majority, with 70% of likely voters saying they will vote in favor.

This poll has a different methodology than the traditional telephone poll but looks promising for the Governor.

Flap senses that Proposition 75, Paycheck Protection Initiative is poised to win decisively.

Pressure will be on the Join Arnold folks to win 74 and 77, although 77 will be challenged by the Democrats in the courts (remember there is a stayed lawsuit about initiative circulation issues).

While the current numbers are generally consistent with other recent surveys conducted by the Field Poll and the Public Policy Institute of California, the S-H-KN survey indicates that support for both Proposition 74 and Proposition 77 is higher than previously reported. In the S-H-KN poll respondents view a facsimile of the actual ballot on their computer screens and make yes or no vote decisions just as they will do in the upcoming special election. No undecided option is offered, although survey respondents can choose not to vote on a proposition just as voters can in the election. Consistent with S-H-KN polling in the 2003 recall election (see www.knowledgenetworks.com/ganp for all materials related to this press release), this methodology resulted in far fewer undecided responses than telephone surveying.

The survey also tracked how the other four initiatives on the November ballot are faring.

The S-H-KN poll has the following for the other propositions:

Prop. 73 (Parental Notification) is currently leading by a margin of 54% to 46%, but this margin is within sampling error of the survey.

Prop. 78 is leading 59% to 41%

Prop. 79 is leading 58% to 42%

Since these are competing initiatives whichever receives the most positive votes wins.

Prop. 80 the final statewide initiative to appear on the November ballot (Electric Service Providers Regulation), currently trails by a wide margin. The poll finds that only 37% of likely voters are currently in favor, with 63% opposed.

The media campaigns are in full swing and Flap has noticed a reduced frequency in the Los Angeles market for big unions’ ads.

Are they out of money?

Will the California Teachers Association mortgage their future and/or be headed toward bankruptcy due to unwise media spending?

Stay tuned.

Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77, Proposition 73, Proposition 78, Proposition 79, Proposition 80, Hoover Institution, Proposition 73

Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page

and

Cross Posted to the SoCal Law Blog

Sacramento Bee columnist, Dan Walters, has Ultra-low turnout could spell semi-victory for Schwarzenegger.

By all appearances, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has been set up – or has set himself up – for a sharp setback in the Nov. 8 special election, but in the Alice-in-Wonderland world of California politics being so far down could give him a leg up.

On Flap previously, California Special Election Watch: It is the TURNOUT Stupid.

Uniformly, polls indicate that voters are not impressed with Schwarzenegger’s arguments that two major ballot measures – one overhauling the redrawing of legislative districts, the other imposing new limits on state spending – are needed.

They do, however, appear to be somewhat more amenable to his teacher tenure measure and two others he has endorsed, one requiring parental notification when minors seek abortions and another to require public employee unions to ask permission before taking campaign funds from members.

More importantly, perhaps, voters are turned off by the very notion of having this special election, having been convinced by a massive, union-financed media campaign that Schwarzenegger is wrong to have launched his ballot measure war this year. The latest polling by the Public Policy Institute of California found that more than half of likely voters think the election is a bad idea, but it’s just possible that the negative reaction to Schwarzenegger’s drive could, in a perverse way, produce a better result for him than the current polls indicate, perhaps even a semi-victory.

Absolutely a correct analysis.

Even the Unions seem to be “getting it”.

The Mercury News has Unions say it’s vital for allies in Bay Area not to sit out election.

But other Democratic strategists say the turnout problem is real and the union campaign so far has fallen into a trap that may inadvertently suppress the Democratic vote.

“We’re worried,” said Steve Smith, who is managing Planned Parenthood’s campaign against Proposition 73 because the measure is dead even in polls. The initiative, another the governor is supporting, would require that parents be notified when underage girls seek abortions.

“The kind of campaign that’s been run for months is, `Say no.’ One function of saying no is staying home. That’s a problem for us.”

Now Walters discusses the bungled union media campaign in surpressing their OWN voters.

Flap has noticed a reduction in frequency of anti-Schwarzenegger television ads in the Los Angeles market.

Will the Alliance for a Better California change their message in the last weeks of the campaign?

The tens of million of dollars that are being spent by pro-and anti-sides on the eight ballot measures are aimed, of course, at influencing voters’ decisions, but they may have the auxiliary effect of depressing turnout as voters become even more confused and alienated. And this election may hinge more on how many vote and who they are, rather than on the massive media campaigns.

The PPIC poll found, not surprisingly, that anti-election sentiment is concentrated heavily among Democrats (73 percent) and independents (56 percent). In sharp contrast, 63 percent of Republicans think the election is a good idea, so it may be intrinsically more difficult for Democrats and unions to persuade their voters even to cast ballots.

And then there are the Evangelical Christians and Proposition 73 (Parental Notification for Abortion).

This important base for the Republicans and Schwarzenegger WILL turn-out to vote.

Conservative churches are, with Republican Party encouragement, marshaling turnout for the parental notification measure, Proposition 73.

“If every Christian in California voted for this initiative, it would pass by a landslide,” one pro-Proposition 73 group, the Capitol Resource Institute, says in an appeal that includes suggested church bulletin fliers. Religious conservatives are likely to support Schwarzenegger’s measures.

The Unions are worried and they should be.

Schwarzenegger could possibly win two or three of his endorsed measures, including the Paycheck Protection Initiative which would be a knife to the union’s heart.

Who will the Union bosses blame for the ROPE-A-DOPE?

Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77, Proposition 73

Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page

The Orange County Register has Get-out-the-vote drive starts in Orange County.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger kicked off his get-out-the-vote efforts for the Nov. 8 special election here Friday, linking the importance of turnout to the fate of his ballot initiatives.

“It’s all about how many people you bring to the polls,” Schwarzenegger told two dozen volunteers at Orange County Republican Party headquarters. “The grass-roots operation is everything.”

This week, as absentee ballots began reaching local mailboxes, Republican volunteers started phoning those homes. More homes will receive pre-recorded calls from Schwarzenegger and other Republican officials. This weekend, hundreds of volunteers plan precinct walks across Orange County, knocking on doors and leafleting the homes of absentee voters.

It is all about turn-out folks.

Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 75, Proposition 73, Proposition 74, Proposition 76, Proposition 77

Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page

The San Francisco Chronicle has Howard Dean back in California this weekend.

Democratic National Committee chair Howard Dean is back in California this week — and boy, is it getting crowded with Democratic “could be 2008 presidential candidate material” types in the Golden State. Senator Hillary Clinton is here (in Los Angeles Friday), Virginia Governor Mark Warner was here (speaking to SF Bar on Wednesday) and Senator John Kerry also in the state and making news on special election campaigning (here and gone).

Now State Democratic chair Art Torres has told his supporters by email that Dean “has accepted my invitation to join me in meeting Northern California Democrats about Governor Schwarzenegger’s Special Election plans for California.” Expect Dean and his famous oratory to fire up those grassroots Dems: Torres promises he will “speak about how we must enlist every Democrat to turn out to vote in order to defeat the Republican plans for our state.”

Watch for the rhetoric to fly.

Is anyone from Northern California Bear Flag League attending one of his functions to report?

Oh, here they are:

Dean’s plans are to address supporters on Sunday afternoon at the UFCW 870 Union Hall in Hayward. But party chairs are also about money: Dr. Dean is also slated to appear at a $100 a head fundraising party for Rep. Zoe Lofgren at a union hall in San Jose on Saturday night.

All of the National Democrats are trolling for union dollars this weekend.

Flap wonders if Cindy Sheehan will try to meet with any of them?

Heh.

Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77, Proposition 73, Howard Dean, Cindy Sheehan

Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page