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Arnold Schwarzenegger, Bear Flag League, California, Politics, Proposition 73, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77, Proposition 78, Proposition 79, Proposition 80, Special Election 2005
California Special Election Watch: New Survey USA Poll Out
Previously on Flap, California Special Election Watch: New Poll Results
A new Survey USA Poll has been released.
In an election today, 10/18/05, 3 weeks to the 11/8/05 vote, California voters approve Proposition 73, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76 and Proposition 77, according to an exclusive SurveyUSA poll of 613 likely voters.
Support for all 5 measures is strongly tied to approval of Governor Schwarzenegger. Those who approve of the job the Governor is doing, vote overwhelmingly “Yes” on all 5 Propositions. Those who disapprove of the job the Governor is doing oppose all 5 Propositions. Interest in ballot measures intensifies as the election approaches and ad dollars are spent to influence voters. These numbers can and should be expected to fluctuate,
Proposition 73 requires that physicians notify the parent of a pregnant minor at least 48 hours before performing an abortion. If the special election were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, would you vote Yes on Proposition 73? Or would you vote No?
60% Yes
38% No
2% UndecidedProposition 74 extends the probationary period for new teachers from 2 years to 5 years, and makes it easier to dismiss teachers with unsatisfactory performance evaluations. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on Proposition 74? Or would you vote No?
53% Yes
45% No
1% UndecidedProposition 75 prohibits public employee unions from using union dues for political purposes without the written consent of union members. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on Proposition 75? Or would you vote no?
56% Yes
42% No
2% UndecidedProposition 76 limits growth in state spending so that it does not exceed recent growth in state revenues. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on Proposition 76? Or would you vote no?
54% Yes
41% No
5% Undecided
Proposition 77 changes the way California draws boundaries for Congressional and legislative districts. District boundaries would be drawn by a panel of retired judges and approved by voters in a statewide election. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on 77? Or would you vote no?54% Yes
41% No
5% UndecidedThis is continued good news for the Governor.
Absentee ballots have been mailed and requests for them are greater than Arnold’s last election in 2003.
Elections officials in Los Angeles County, which is home to nearly a quarter of California’s registered voters, already have sent out 445,784 absentee ballots. That’s up from 338,747 at the same point in the 2004 primary race and 350,747 in the recall.
“We’re actually running closer to the numbers we saw in the 2004 general election,” said Kristin Heffron, chief deputy registrar for Los Angeles County.
There’s a similar situation in Santa Clara County, where the 200,972 absentee ballots already mailed to voters are more than the 132,965 issued in the 2004 primary and not far behind the 232,231 mailed out for the November general election.
“I think there’s interest out there,” said Alma Rosas, a spokeswoman for the Santa Clara Country registrar. “It’s not like a governor’s race, with a 50 percent turnout, or the 70 percent that turns out for a presidential race, but we’re looking at a 40 to 45 percent turnout, like for a primary.”
Stay Tuned.
Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77
Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page
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Arnold Schwarzenegger, Bear Flag League, California, Election 2006, Politics, Proposition 73, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77, Proposition 78, Proposition 79, Proposition 80, Special Election 2005
California Special Election Watch: McClintock and Schwarzenegger Teaming Up
The Los Angeles Times has Gov., McClintock on Same Side This Time.
The conservative state senator, who opposed Schwarzenegger in the 2003 recall election, appears in Redding to help promote initiatives.
Campaigning alongside Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger on Tuesday, state Sen. Tom McClintock paused and stated the obvious: “Now, you all know I ran against this governor in the recall.”
Assessing the damage, Schwarzenegger grinned and said, “Just a little bit.”
he legislator from Thousand Oaks could once have been a political liability, but the governor has brought his more conservative — and frequently — contrarian Republican colleague into the tent.
On Tuesday, during an appearance here to promote the Nov. 8 special election, the governor called the senator a “terrific, terrific partner of mine.”
McClintock, the only major Republican to challenge Schwarzenegger during the contentious recall effort in 2003, ended up getting 1.1 million votes, or 13.5%. Further frustrating Schwarzenegger, he signed the ballot arguments opposing the governor’s budget initiatives last year.
But McClintock has produced an ad for talk radio stations supporting the governor’s special election agenda. And he is expected to show up again in conservative areas, such as Redding, the seat of a county where he and Schwarzenegger received nearly 80% of the recall election votes.
Tom McClintock is a very smart yet principled politician. He observed the Republican 11th Commandment when he ran against the Governor in the recall and understands the importance of the special election reforms to California governance. He recognizes his lot is cast with Schwarzenegger’s.
McClintock wil be a good running mate next year. Flap handicaps that the Governor and McClintock will win as Team Republican.
The only question then left for McClintock will be whether in future years he will seek the Governor’s office again or returns to Thousand Oaks and runs for Congress for a one day retiring Elton Gallegly’s seat.
McClintock’s Lt. Governor website is here.
Technorati Tags: Tom McClintock, Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Special Election, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77, Proposition 78, Proposition 79, Capitol Research Institute, Proposition 73, Proposition 80
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Arnold Schwarzenegger, Bear Flag League, California, Politics, Proposition 77, Special Election 2005
Proposition 77 Watch: What Are Your Boundaries? Mobilizing America’s Youth
Mobilizing America’s Youth (MAY) is an all-partisan network dedicated to educating, empowering, and energizing young people to increase our civic engagement and political participation.
The element that sets MAY apart from many similar organizations across the country is that we aim to EMPOWER youth to advocate on behalf of their passions and to become the change they would like to see in their communities. This element of political involvement goes one step beyond just registering and voting, but it gives youth a reason to vote and a sense of why it is important to be involved. By learning about how issues affecting their lives can be influenced by public policy, then getting out there and voicing their opinions, America’s youth will be increasingly engaged for years to come.
On Monday, October 24, MAY and Mobilize.org are launching their “What Are YOUR Boundaries?†RV Tour in support of Proposition 77, the California Redistricting Initiative.
The Mobilize.org RV Tour has one major purpose and one major goal. The purpose is to educate, empower, and energize young people throughout the state for the upcoming special election, and our goal is to pass the Voter Empowerment Act – Proposition 77. The RV tour is historic and the first of its kind as no other independent organization has hosted such an event exclusively devoted to a single proposition.
Mobilize.org believes that redistricting is the best way to end the political deadlock in California. We have built a strong coalition of support to help us get that message to America’s youth.
Mobilize.org’s blog is located here.
The official kick-off will consist of an editorial board conference call with college newspapers throughout the state on Monday, September 24th at 3 PM.
Stay tuned for more about this youth/college oriented RV tour in support of Proposition 77.
Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 77
Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page
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Arnold Schwarzenegger, Bear Flag League, California, Politics, Proposition 73, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77, Proposition 78, Special Election 2005
California Special Election Watch: Latest Stanford University-Hoover Institution-Knowledge Networks (S-H-KN) Online Survey
The Hoover Institution has Poll: Race Too Close to Call for Two Schwarzenegger Propositions.
A Stanford University-Hoover Institution-Knowledge Networks (S-H-KN) online survey shows two of the statewide ballot propositions backed by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in a statistical dead heat.
Prop. 74 (Teacher Tenure) and Prop. 77 (Redistricting) both split likely California voters right down the middle.
Another Schwarzenegger initiative, Prop. 76 (State Spending and School Funding Limits), is trailing by a wide margin, with 70% of likely California voters saying they will vote against it.
Prop. 75 (Public Employee Union Dues), endorsed by the Governor, currently has a commanding majority, with 70% of likely voters saying they will vote in favor.
This poll has a different methodology than the traditional telephone poll but looks promising for the Governor.
Flap senses that Proposition 75, Paycheck Protection Initiative is poised to win decisively.
Pressure will be on the Join Arnold folks to win 74 and 77, although 77 will be challenged by the Democrats in the courts (remember there is a stayed lawsuit about initiative circulation issues).
While the current numbers are generally consistent with other recent surveys conducted by the Field Poll and the Public Policy Institute of California, the S-H-KN survey indicates that support for both Proposition 74 and Proposition 77 is higher than previously reported. In the S-H-KN poll respondents view a facsimile of the actual ballot on their computer screens and make yes or no vote decisions just as they will do in the upcoming special election. No undecided option is offered, although survey respondents can choose not to vote on a proposition just as voters can in the election. Consistent with S-H-KN polling in the 2003 recall election (see www.knowledgenetworks.com/ganp for all materials related to this press release), this methodology resulted in far fewer undecided responses than telephone surveying.
The survey also tracked how the other four initiatives on the November ballot are faring.
The S-H-KN poll has the following for the other propositions:
Prop. 73 (Parental Notification) is currently leading by a margin of 54% to 46%, but this margin is within sampling error of the survey.
Prop. 78 is leading 59% to 41%
Prop. 79 is leading 58% to 42%
Since these are competing initiatives whichever receives the most positive votes wins.
Prop. 80 the final statewide initiative to appear on the November ballot (Electric Service Providers Regulation), currently trails by a wide margin. The poll finds that only 37% of likely voters are currently in favor, with 63% opposed.
The media campaigns are in full swing and Flap has noticed a reduced frequency in the Los Angeles market for big unions’ ads.
Are they out of money?
Will the California Teachers Association mortgage their future and/or be headed toward bankruptcy due to unwise media spending?
Stay tuned.
Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77, Proposition 73, Proposition 78, Proposition 79, Proposition 80, Hoover Institution, Proposition 73
Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page
and
Cross Posted to the SoCal Law Blog
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Arnold Schwarzenegger, Bear Flag League, California, Politics, Proposition 77, Special Election 2005
California Special Election Watch: Schwarzenegger Endorses Ohio Redistricting Measure
The New York Times has Schwarzenegger Enters Debate Over Redistricting in Ohio.
Separate ballot measures in California and Ohio to remove lawmakers from the drawing of legislative districts have been dogged by accusations that they are essentially partisan power grabs.
Now Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican, hopes to counter those claims by throwing his weight behind the Ohio measure, even though no prominent Republican elected official in that state has done so and many Republican lawmakers there are raising money to defeat it.
A campaign aide to Mr. Schwarzenegger, Darrel Ng, said Monday that the governor endorsed the Ohio measure, known on the Nov. 8 ballot as Issue 4, though he has not said so publicly. A top supporter of the measures in both states said Mr. Schwarzenegger would participate in a series of public events this week to signal his stance.
“He has agreed to do it,” said the supporter, Chellie Pingree, president of Common Cause, a watchdog group that is pushing for redistricting changes in more than a dozen states, including California and Ohio.
A calculated risk for the Governor that will undoubtedly rankle the House Republican leadership.
However, he, like John McCain can be viewed as a maverick who does what he thinks is RIGHT- without regard to Republican Party advantage.
Flap handicaps this to be a slight plus in California with independent voters who are now completing absentee ballots.
Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 77, Issue 4
Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page
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Arnold Schwarzenegger, Bear Flag League, California, Politics, Proposition 73, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77, Proposition 78, Special Election 2005
California Special Election Watch: ROPE-A-DOPE II
Sacramento Bee columnist, Dan Walters, has Ultra-low turnout could spell semi-victory for Schwarzenegger.
By all appearances, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has been set up – or has set himself up – for a sharp setback in the Nov. 8 special election, but in the Alice-in-Wonderland world of California politics being so far down could give him a leg up.
On Flap previously, California Special Election Watch: It is the TURNOUT Stupid.
Uniformly, polls indicate that voters are not impressed with Schwarzenegger’s arguments that two major ballot measures – one overhauling the redrawing of legislative districts, the other imposing new limits on state spending – are needed.
They do, however, appear to be somewhat more amenable to his teacher tenure measure and two others he has endorsed, one requiring parental notification when minors seek abortions and another to require public employee unions to ask permission before taking campaign funds from members.
More importantly, perhaps, voters are turned off by the very notion of having this special election, having been convinced by a massive, union-financed media campaign that Schwarzenegger is wrong to have launched his ballot measure war this year. The latest polling by the Public Policy Institute of California found that more than half of likely voters think the election is a bad idea, but it’s just possible that the negative reaction to Schwarzenegger’s drive could, in a perverse way, produce a better result for him than the current polls indicate, perhaps even a semi-victory.
Absolutely a correct analysis.
Even the Unions seem to be “getting it”.
The Mercury News has Unions say it’s vital for allies in Bay Area not to sit out election.
But other Democratic strategists say the turnout problem is real and the union campaign so far has fallen into a trap that may inadvertently suppress the Democratic vote.
“We’re worried,” said Steve Smith, who is managing Planned Parenthood’s campaign against Proposition 73 because the measure is dead even in polls. The initiative, another the governor is supporting, would require that parents be notified when underage girls seek abortions.
“The kind of campaign that’s been run for months is, `Say no.’ One function of saying no is staying home. That’s a problem for us.”
Now Walters discusses the bungled union media campaign in surpressing their OWN voters.
Flap has noticed a reduction in frequency of anti-Schwarzenegger television ads in the Los Angeles market.
Will the Alliance for a Better California change their message in the last weeks of the campaign?
The tens of million of dollars that are being spent by pro-and anti-sides on the eight ballot measures are aimed, of course, at influencing voters’ decisions, but they may have the auxiliary effect of depressing turnout as voters become even more confused and alienated. And this election may hinge more on how many vote and who they are, rather than on the massive media campaigns.
The PPIC poll found, not surprisingly, that anti-election sentiment is concentrated heavily among Democrats (73 percent) and independents (56 percent). In sharp contrast, 63 percent of Republicans think the election is a good idea, so it may be intrinsically more difficult for Democrats and unions to persuade their voters even to cast ballots.
And then there are the Evangelical Christians and Proposition 73 (Parental Notification for Abortion).
This important base for the Republicans and Schwarzenegger WILL turn-out to vote.
Conservative churches are, with Republican Party encouragement, marshaling turnout for the parental notification measure, Proposition 73.
“If every Christian in California voted for this initiative, it would pass by a landslide,” one pro-Proposition 73 group, the Capitol Resource Institute, says in an appeal that includes suggested church bulletin fliers. Religious conservatives are likely to support Schwarzenegger’s measures.
The Unions are worried and they should be.
Schwarzenegger could possibly win two or three of his endorsed measures, including the Paycheck Protection Initiative which would be a knife to the union’s heart.
Who will the Union bosses blame for the ROPE-A-DOPE?
Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77, Proposition 73
Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page
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Arnold Schwarzenegger, Bear Flag League, California, Politics, Proposition 73, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77, Special Election 2005
California Special Election Watch: Schwarzenegger Begins GOTV Drive in the OC
The Orange County Register has Get-out-the-vote drive starts in Orange County.
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger kicked off his get-out-the-vote efforts for the Nov. 8 special election here Friday, linking the importance of turnout to the fate of his ballot initiatives.
“It’s all about how many people you bring to the polls,” Schwarzenegger told two dozen volunteers at Orange County Republican Party headquarters. “The grass-roots operation is everything.”
This week, as absentee ballots began reaching local mailboxes, Republican volunteers started phoning those homes. More homes will receive pre-recorded calls from Schwarzenegger and other Republican officials. This weekend, hundreds of volunteers plan precinct walks across Orange County, knocking on doors and leafleting the homes of absentee voters.
It is all about turn-out folks.Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 75, Proposition 73, Proposition 74, Proposition 76, Proposition 77
Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page
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Arnold Schwarzenegger, Bear Flag League, California, Politics, Proposition 73, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77, Special Election 2005
California Special Election Watch: Howard Dean, He’s BACK
The San Francisco Chronicle has Howard Dean back in California this weekend.
Democratic National Committee chair Howard Dean is back in California this week — and boy, is it getting crowded with Democratic “could be 2008 presidential candidate material” types in the Golden State. Senator Hillary Clinton is here (in Los Angeles Friday), Virginia Governor Mark Warner was here (speaking to SF Bar on Wednesday) and Senator John Kerry also in the state and making news on special election campaigning (here and gone).
Now State Democratic chair Art Torres has told his supporters by email that Dean “has accepted my invitation to join me in meeting Northern California Democrats about Governor Schwarzenegger’s Special Election plans for California.” Expect Dean and his famous oratory to fire up those grassroots Dems: Torres promises he will “speak about how we must enlist every Democrat to turn out to vote in order to defeat the Republican plans for our state.”
Watch for the rhetoric to fly.
Is anyone from Northern California Bear Flag League attending one of his functions to report?
Oh, here they are:
Dean’s plans are to address supporters on Sunday afternoon at the UFCW 870 Union Hall in Hayward. But party chairs are also about money: Dr. Dean is also slated to appear at a $100 a head fundraising party for Rep. Zoe Lofgren at a union hall in San Jose on Saturday night.
All of the National Democrats are trolling for union dollars this weekend.
Flap wonders if Cindy Sheehan will try to meet with any of them?
Heh.
Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77, Proposition 73, Howard Dean, Cindy Sheehan
Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page
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Arnold Schwarzenegger, Bear Flag League, California, Politics, Proposition 73, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77, Special Election 2005
California Special Election Watch: Feinstein to Oppose Schwarzenegger’s Reform Initiatives
Sen. Dianne Feinstein will participate in the campaign against Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s agenda in the Nov. 8 special election, as well as an initiative seeking to impose restrictions on minors seeking abortions.
“Feinstein believes that the special election is a mistake. It’s a costly waste of taxpayer dollars,” spokesman Howard Gantman said Friday.
Feinstein, a San Francisco Democrat who also appeals to many independents and Republicans, plans to participate in opponents’ efforts to explain why voters should defeat the initiatives, Gantman said. Such efforts could involve a direct mail campaign.
DiFi is bowling for Union dollars……re-election next year.
Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77, Proposition 73, Dianne Feinstein
Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page
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Arnold Schwarzenegger, Bear Flag League, California, Politics, Proposition 77, Special Election 2005
California Special Election Watch: Proposition 77 Redistricting Ad DISSES the Legislature
The Proposition 77, the Redistricting Initiative, folks have a new television ad disrespecting the California Legislature.
Flap has to agree with Dan Weintraub on his one.
Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 77
Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page