The Electoral College: State of the Presidential Race

Posted Posted in Barack Obama, Electoral College, Mitt Romney, President 2012

Romney State of the Race October 23 2012 The Morning Flap: October 23, 2012

From 270towin.com

The above graphic is how the Presidential race will turn out in the Electoral College on November the 6th. I have Mitt Romney defeating President Obama 271 Electoral Votes vs. 261 Electoral Votes.

Most notable recent changes I have made have been the loss of Ohio to the President and the pick up of Colorado for Romney.

Here is my Electoral College map I made after Mitt Romney chose Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin for his Vice President running mate.

 Electoral College August 11 2012 Does Paul Ryan Help Mitt Romney in the Electoral College?

From 270towin.com

To say the least, the race is tight.

Mitt Romney continues to make a play for Nevada and I understand as of yesterday, he made a very large television ad buy in Northern Nevada – the Reno market.

Recent polling by Rasmussen and Gallup have Ohio all tied up – well within the margins of error. Ohio could go either way. I think Obama now needs Ohio more than Romney in order to win, which goes against the maxim that GOP Presidential wins go through Ohio.

Stay tuned as more polls roll in throughout the next few days.

However, I think, my first map with a 271 Electoral College Vote win for Romney will probably be the end result.

Gallup Poll: Obama Losing Momentum With Voters

Posted Posted in Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, Polling, President 2012

Gallup Presidential Poll among likely votersPresident Obama’s loss of momentum traces back to the first Presidential debate when Mitt Romney schooled the President. But, the latest Gallup Poll is even more telling.

Half of likely voters now prefer Mitt Romney for president and 46% back President Barack Obama in Gallup interviewing through Monday.

While Romney’s four-percentage-point advantage is not statistically significant, he has consistently edged ahead of Obama each of the past several days in Gallup’s seven-day rolling averages conducted entirely after the Oct. 3 presidential debate. Prior to that debate — regarded as a decisive Romney win by political experts and Americans who watched it — Romney averaged less than a one-point lead over Obama among likely voters.

The latest result, from Oct. 9-15, is based on 2,723 likely voters drawn from more than 3,100 registered voters.

And, here is the registered voters poll chart – note the trend.

Gallup Registered Voters Presidential PollGallup has also done a comparison between Obama Vs. McCain and Obama Vs. Romney.

Here is the chart:

Gallup Poll Presidential Preferences 2008 vs 2012Here is the summary of the differences between 2008 and 2012:

Degreed voters backing off Obama: In 2008, Obama led McCain among postgraduate educated voters by a 30-point margin, while he ran roughly even with McCain among those with lower levels of education. Today, Obama’s postgraduate advantage has been cut to 14 points and he trails Romney among college graduates (those with four-year degrees only) by 22 points. His support from high school graduates and those with some college is also down slightly, providing no counterbalance to his major losses among the college educated.

Southern losses: The South gave Obama the least support of any region in 2008, but still split their vote evenly for Obama vs. McCain. Today, Southerners favor Romney by a 22-point margin, the largest shift of any region. Voters in the East are also less supportive, while preferences in the West and Midwest are little changed.

Young voters stick with him: Young voters were an important part of Obama’s 2008 coalition, and in 2012 they continue to support him overwhelmingly, at roughly the same level as four years ago. The difficulty for Obama is that he currently has less support among each older age group, particularly those aged 30 to 49 years.

White support dwindles: Obama lost the white vote in 2008 by 12 percentage points, but that was more than offset by a 72-point lead among nonwhites. Today, Obama has a more daunting 22-point deficit among whites, while his margin over Romney among nonwhites is essentially unchanged.

Men move away: In 2008, Gallup found a 14-point swing in gender preferences for president, with women favoring Obama by a 14-point margin and men tied in their preferences for Obama vs. McCain. Today, there is a 20-point gender gap. Women’s support for Obama shrank to six percentage points, while men favor Romney by 14 points.

So, what does this all mean?

The President is in trouble for re-election. Mitt Romney has been surging since the first Denver  Presidential debate and if Obama does not reverse this course in three weeks there will be a new President come 2013.

Watch the President come out swinging in tonight’s debate.

Obama really has to hit a home run or he is toast.

Day By Day October 14, 2012 – Pattern

Posted Posted in Day By Day, President 2012

Day By Day cartoon for October 14, 2012

Day By Day by Chris Muir

Chris, you mean the “Lame Stream” media might actually have some bias? Have family members or themselves working for the POLS before and subsequent to their media assignments?

Fancy that!

Now, there is a brewing kerfuffle over CNN’s Candy Crowley and tomorrow night’s Presidential debate.

In a rare example of political unity, both the Romney and Obama campaigns have expressed concern to the Commission on Presidential Debates about how the moderator of this Tuesday’s town hall has publicly described her role, TIME has learned.

While an early-October memorandum of understanding between the Obama and Romney campaigns suggests that CNN’s Candy Crowley would play a limited role in the Tuesday-night session, Crowley, who is not a party to that agreement, has done a series of interviews on her network in which she has suggested that she will assume a broader set of responsibilities. As Crowley put it last week, “Once the table is kind of set by the town-hall questioner, there is then time for me to say, ‘Hey, wait a second, what about X, Y, Z?’”

In the view of the two campaigns and the commission, those and other recent comments by Crowley conflict with the language the campaigns agreed to, which delineates a more limited role for the debate moderator. The questioning of the two candidates is supposed to be driven by the audience members — likely voters selected by the Gallup Organization. Crowley’s assignment differs from those of the three other debate moderators, who in the more standard format are supposed to lead the questioning and follow up when appropriate. The town-hall debate is planned for Oct. 16 at 9 p.m. E.T. at Hofstra University in Hempstead, N.Y.

Should Crowley be replaced?

If she doesn’t agree with the rules of the format, she should step down.

Oh, by the way, the “Lame Stream” media needs to prop up Obama so he has already won this debate.

Obama Campaign Gets Serious with Big Bird Ad?

Posted 1 CommentPosted in Barack Obama, President 2012

[youtube]http://youtu.be/bZxs09eV-Vc[/youtube]

Of course, the Obama Campaign folks will say that this is just a light-hearted dig at Romney. But, the fact that in their press release they did not list the states where this purported television ad will air, everyone suspects that this was a “trial balloon.”

The add is a pretty stupid move when the President just had his ass kicked on the issues in the first debate with Mitt Romney.

I mean, really, 8 per cent unemployment for 44 months of his Presidency and a stagnant economy, then the President attacks Romney over Big Bird.

Obama and his campaign are flailing….

Poll: Americans Don’t Want MORE Government Regulation of Business and Industry

Posted Posted in Barack Obama, Government Regulation, Mitt Romney, Polling, President 2012

According to the latest Gallup Poll.

Americans say there is too much (47%) rather than too little (26%) government regulation of business and industry, with 24% saying the amount of regulation is about right. Americans have been most likely to say there is too much regulation of business over the last several years, but prior to 2006, Americans’ views on the issue of government regulation of business were more mixed.

The collapse of Lehman Bros., the failure of the secondary mortgage market, and other business problems in 2008 and 2009 might have been expected to increase Americans’ desire for more government control of business and industry. But that was not the case. Americans’ views that there is too much government regulation in fact began to rise in 2009, perhaps in response to the new Obama administration and new business regulation policies such as Dodd-Frank, reaching an all-time high of 50% in 2011 before settling down slightly this year to 47%.

There has been little change since 2003 in the percentage of Americans saying there is too little regulation of business. The changes that have occurred in recent years have involved shifts between the percentages choosing the “too much” and “about right” alternatives.

Congressional Democrats and President Obama are vulnerable on this issue and this is certainly exploitable by the GOP.

I, certainly, would have expected to see some national cable television ads on this subject. But, maybe, they will be hitting this issue hard in the coming weeks with their ad buys.

Even independent voters say there is too much government regulation of business.

Here is the chart:

Poll of Goverment Regulation by party preference chart

What does this mean?

Despite what some observers call a pattern of excess by big business that helped lead to the 2008 recession, Americans continue to say there is too much rather than too little government regulation of business. In fact, over the 15 times since 1993 that Gallup has asked this question, never have more than a third of Americans said there is too little regulation of business and industry.

The increase in the “too much” viewpoint since 2008 largely results from Republicans’ increased agreement with this point — most likely reflecting their reaction to Democratic President Obama’s election and his policies once in office.

All in all, the results suggest that a call from Mitt Romney for a reduction in government regulations and red tape may strike a more responsive chord from the average American, particularly independent Americans, than a call from Obama for more regulation.