Polling

President 2012: Latest Key Battleground State Polls for November 1

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Romney campaigning Oct 31 2012

Mitt Romney campaigning yesterday in Florida

Here are the latest key battleground state polls:

The Real Clear Politics average of polls and more are here.

The Presidential race is very close – no matter what the spin spews out over the next few days.

This election can break either way and we may have a very exciting election night next Tuesday.

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President 2012

President 2012: The Latest Key Battleground State Polls

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https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-9dt_5zNjajk/T6FhYj0bJdI/AAAAAAAAFSc/Mp6P-P2z6rs/s600/Obama+and+Romney.jpg

Here are the latest key battleground state polls:

The Real Clear Politics average of polls and more are here.

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Barack Obama

The Electoral College: State of the Presidential Race

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Romney State of the Race October 23 2012 The Morning Flap: October 23, 2012

From 270towin.com

The above graphic is how the Presidential race will turn out in the Electoral College on November the 6th. I have Mitt Romney defeating President Obama 271 Electoral Votes vs. 261 Electoral Votes.

Most notable recent changes I have made have been the loss of Ohio to the President and the pick up of Colorado for Romney.

Here is my Electoral College map I made after Mitt Romney chose Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin for his Vice President running mate.

 Electoral College August 11 2012 Does Paul Ryan Help Mitt Romney in the Electoral College?

From 270towin.com

To say the least, the race is tight.

Mitt Romney continues to make a play for Nevada and I understand as of yesterday, he made a very large television ad buy in Northern Nevada – the Reno market.

Recent polling by Rasmussen and Gallup have Ohio all tied up – well within the margins of error. Ohio could go either way. I think Obama now needs Ohio more than Romney in order to win, which goes against the maxim that GOP Presidential wins go through Ohio.

Stay tuned as more polls roll in throughout the next few days.

However, I think, my first map with a 271 Electoral College Vote win for Romney will probably be the end result.

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Barack Obama

Gallup Poll: Obama Losing Momentum With Voters

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Gallup Presidential Poll among likely votersPresident Obama’s loss of momentum traces back to the first Presidential debate when Mitt Romney schooled the President. But, the latest Gallup Poll is even more telling.

Half of likely voters now prefer Mitt Romney for president and 46% back President Barack Obama in Gallup interviewing through Monday.

While Romney’s four-percentage-point advantage is not statistically significant, he has consistently edged ahead of Obama each of the past several days in Gallup’s seven-day rolling averages conducted entirely after the Oct. 3 presidential debate. Prior to that debate — regarded as a decisive Romney win by political experts and Americans who watched it — Romney averaged less than a one-point lead over Obama among likely voters.

The latest result, from Oct. 9-15, is based on 2,723 likely voters drawn from more than 3,100 registered voters.

And, here is the registered voters poll chart – note the trend.

Gallup Registered Voters Presidential PollGallup has also done a comparison between Obama Vs. McCain and Obama Vs. Romney.

Here is the chart:

Gallup Poll Presidential Preferences 2008 vs 2012Here is the summary of the differences between 2008 and 2012:

Degreed voters backing off Obama: In 2008, Obama led McCain among postgraduate educated voters by a 30-point margin, while he ran roughly even with McCain among those with lower levels of education. Today, Obama’s postgraduate advantage has been cut to 14 points and he trails Romney among college graduates (those with four-year degrees only) by 22 points. His support from high school graduates and those with some college is also down slightly, providing no counterbalance to his major losses among the college educated.

Southern losses: The South gave Obama the least support of any region in 2008, but still split their vote evenly for Obama vs. McCain. Today, Southerners favor Romney by a 22-point margin, the largest shift of any region. Voters in the East are also less supportive, while preferences in the West and Midwest are little changed.

Young voters stick with him: Young voters were an important part of Obama’s 2008 coalition, and in 2012 they continue to support him overwhelmingly, at roughly the same level as four years ago. The difficulty for Obama is that he currently has less support among each older age group, particularly those aged 30 to 49 years.

White support dwindles: Obama lost the white vote in 2008 by 12 percentage points, but that was more than offset by a 72-point lead among nonwhites. Today, Obama has a more daunting 22-point deficit among whites, while his margin over Romney among nonwhites is essentially unchanged.

Men move away: In 2008, Gallup found a 14-point swing in gender preferences for president, with women favoring Obama by a 14-point margin and men tied in their preferences for Obama vs. McCain. Today, there is a 20-point gender gap. Women’s support for Obama shrank to six percentage points, while men favor Romney by 14 points.

So, what does this all mean?

The President is in trouble for re-election. Mitt Romney has been surging since the first Denver  Presidential debate and if Obama does not reverse this course in three weeks there will be a new President come 2013.

Watch the President come out swinging in tonight’s debate.

Obama really has to hit a home run or he is toast.

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