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President 2012 Poll Watch: Obama Has the Key Battleground State Blues
Electoral College vote map of Larry Sabato
As I have been writing about for many weeks now, President Obama is NOT polling well in the key battleground states that the Republicans desperately need to beat him in the 2012 Presidential race.President Obama’s job approval rating in the latest national polls has been in the danger zone, ranging from 42 percent (Gallup) to 47 percent (ABC News/Washington Post), with every survey showing him with higher unfavorables than favorables. Needless to say, it’s not a good place for a president to be, especially since his numbers have worsened over the past two months.
The race for president isn’t a national contest. It’s a state-by-state battle to cobble an electoral vote majority. So while the national polls are useful in gauging the president’s popularity, the more instructive numbers are those from the battlegrounds.
Those polls are even more ominous for the president: In every reputable battleground state poll conducted over the past month, Obama’s support is weak. In most of them, he trails Republican front-runner Mitt Romney. For all the talk of a closely fought 2012 election, if Obama can’t turn around his fortunes in states such as Michigan and New Hampshire, next year’s presidential election could end up being a GOP landslide.
Take Ohio, a perennial battleground in which Obama has campaigned more than in any other state (outside of the D.C. metropolitan region). Fifty percent of Ohio voters now disapprove of his job performance, compared with 46 percent who approve, according to a Quinnipiac poll conducted from July 12-18.
Among Buckeye State independents, only 40 percent believe that Obama should be reelected, and 42 percent approve of his job performance. Against Romney, Obama leads 45 percent to 41 percent—well below the 50 percent comfort zone for an incumbent.
Read the rest of the piece.
Ohio, for now, is the BEST state for President Obama. In every other key battleground state, he is either behind Mitt Romney or tied with him. With the glow of the Osama Bin Laden death now fully expired, watch the polls after Labor Day. If Obama sinks further say in Virginia and/or Florida and Ohio swings for the GOP, the Republicans may be looking for quite a victory.
And, this is why the House GOP needs to clear the debt-limit debate out of the way as soon as today.
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Poll Watch: Underemployment 21% or Higher In Nine States Including California
View underemployment data for every state
Despite the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report today, Gallup raises another issue that may loom as more important – UNDEREMPLOYMENT.Underemployed Americans are generally those who are not working to their desired capacity. Gallup considers respondents to be “underemployed” if they are either 1) unemployed or 2) employed part time (under 30 hours per week) and wish to be employed full time. The definition of unemployment used as a component of underemployment closely follows the government’s definition; respondents are “unemployed” if they don’t have a job, and are actively looking for work and are available to begin work. Gallup reports underemployment by state in the following ranges: 9.0%-11.9%, 12.0%-14.9%, 15.0%-17.9%, 18.0%-20.9%, and 21.0%-24.9%.
The nine states with underemployment rates of 21% or higher were relatively spread out across the country and include the nation’s largest state, California, as well as Michigan and Nevada, which have been hit by downturns in the automotive and gambling industries, respectively. Twenty-two states cluster in the underemployment range of 18% to 20.9%, relatively close to the 18.9% national average.
Here are the charts:
So, what does this mean?Although the national unemployment rates are marginally decreasing, there is a large population of Americans that are not working enough. This is a measure of the real impact of the job situation and will have political implications – particularly in key battleground states as the campaigns for 2012 begin. Note the states of North Carolina, Nevada, Florida and Michigan are on the highest underemployment list.
Underemployment is a measure of the real impact of the job situation in the U.S., taking into account as it does workers who are out of and explicitly looking for work, as well as those who may be working part time but would like to work full time. The extent of underemployment in the U.S. varies widely by state, from relatively low levels in the energy states of North Dakota and Wyoming to quite high levels in a number of states, including the nation’s largest, California.
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President 2012: The First Map of Battleground States Updated
Back in November, I posted a first map of 2012 Presidential battleground states. Of course, this was before the census and a concomitant reapportionment.Republican-leaning states will gain at least a half dozen House seats thanks to the 2010 census, which found the nations population growing more slowly than in past decades but still shifting to the South and West.
The Census Bureau announced Tuesday that the nation’s population on April 1 was 308,745,538, up from 281.4 million a decade ago. The growth rate for the past decade was 9.7 percent, the lowest since the Great Depression. The nation’s population grew by 13.2 percent from 1990 to 2000.
Michigan was the only state to lose population during the past decade. Nevada, with a 35 percent increase, was the fastest-growing state.
The new numbers are a boon for Republicans, with Texas leading the way among GOP-leaning states that will gain House seats, mostly at the Rust Belts expense. Following each once-a-decade census, the nation must reapportion the House’s 435 districts to make them roughly equal in population, with each state getting at least one seat.
That triggers an often contentious and partisan process in many states, which will draw new congressional district lines that can help or hurt either party.
In all, the census figures show a shift affecting 18 states taking effect when the 113th Congress takes office in 2013.
Texas will gain four new House seats, and Florida will gain two. Gaining one each are Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington.
Now, we have some additional polling/party identification information which should also give us a clue as to the identity of 2012 Presidential KEY battleground states:
Watching the party identification polling will give us the trend toward or away from the incumbent Democratic President. Remembering Obama/Biden won 365 electoral votes Vs. McCain/Palin 173.
Looking at the states that lost Electoral Votes:
And, the states that gained Electoral Votes:
Before, I identified the key battleground states (pre-census release):
- Ohio – 20 (electoral votes): -2 after reapportionment
- Virginia – 13
- Colorado – 9
- Florida -27: +2 after reapportionment
- Nevada – 5: +1 after reapportionment
- Wisconsin -10
- New Hampshire – 4
- Indiana – 11
- North Carolina – 15
And, I think, at least for now, pending any dramatic change in party identification I will stay with these states.
The question for the GOP will be: Who will be the best candidate in these nine states to match up against President Barack Obama?
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Presidential Election 2012: The First 2012 Map of Battleground States
Election 2010 Map as of today from electoral-vote.org
The first pundit map is out for the 2102 Presidential race.As we begin turning our attention to the 2012 presidential contest, we debut our initial presidential battleground map. Note: This is based on where we believe things will be a year from now, with the GOP candidates headed into home stretch in IA. It essentially combines what we know from ’04, ’06, ’08 and ’10, and factors it ALL in. Here’s another way to look at this: The lean Dem states are winnable by a Republican if things break, say, 53%-47% nationally for the nominee. And the lean GOP states are winnable by a Democrat if things break, well, 53%-47% nationally for the president. And you can guarantee BOTH parties will play in every lean and toss-up state so the BIG battleground for 2012 begins with 17 states. We fully expect a David Plouffe to attempt to argue GA and AZ should be in lean. And we expect a GOP strategist to argue they can put one EV in ME and, say, OR in play. But here you go…
Solid Dem: DE, HI, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT
Likely Dem: CA, CT, IL, ME, WA, OR
Lean Dem: IA, MI, MN, NJ, PA
Toss-up: CO, FL, NV, NH, NM, OH, VA, WI
Lean GOP: MO, MT, NE (one EV), NC,
Likely GOP: AL, AR, AZ, GA, IN, LA, MS, NE (four EVs), ND, SC, SD, TX
DC Solid GOP: AK, ID, KS, KY, OK, TN, UT, WV, WYOf course, this depends entirely on the economy and it will be interesting to revisit this in about a year. But, as of today, I would say the key battleground states will be:
- Ohio – 20 (electoral votes)
- Virginia – 13
- Colorado – 9
- Florida -27
- Nevada – 5
- Wisconsin -10
- New Hampshire – 4
- Indiana – 11
- North Carolina – 15
Remembering Obama/Biden won 365 electoral votes Vs. McCain/Palin 173. The battleground states above would have 114 electoral votes in play. A sufficient number for a GOP contender to flip and win the Presidency.
The race for 2012 has already started.
Stay tuned……
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ACORN Tries to Register Mickey Mouse in Florida
The Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now (ACORN) attempted to register Disney cartoon character Mickey Mouse to vote in Florida this summer.This year, ACORN signed up 1.3-million voters nationwide and about 152,000 in Florida, mostly in Orange, Broward and Miami-Dade counties. ACORN estimates it flagged 2 percent of its Florida registrations as problematic because they were incomplete, duplicates or just plain bogus.
That’s enough to give headaches to election officials and to provide ammunition to Republican activists.
Brevard County elections officials have turned over 23 suspect registrations from ACORN to prosecutors. The state Division of Elections has received two ACORN-related complaints, in Orange and Broward counties.
ACORN wasn’t active in the Tampa Bay area. Last week, however, Pinellas County elections officials gave local prosecutors 35 questionable registrations from another group, Work for Progress.
The GOP accuses ACORN of registration fraud all over the country. In Las Vegas, authorities said the group’s petitions included the names of the starting lineup of the Dallas Cowboys.
“This is part of a widespread and systemic effort … to undermine the election process,” says Republican National Committee chief counsel Sean Cairncross, who describes ACORN as a “quasicriminal organization.”
And, how much did the Barack Obama campaign contribute to ACORN this year?
Over 1 $ million, you don’t say?
Now, the state of North Carolina is investigating suspicious voter registration forms submitted by ACORN. Also, in Ohio, Nevada and Michigan – other battleground states. Here is a case in Indiana.
The Wall Street Journal this morning has a piece about the Obama-ACORN relationship.
The Bush Justice Department and FBI need to treat these fraudulent activities of ACORN as serious matters and not random local irregularities of voter fraud.
The integrity of our election laws demand no less.
Technorati Tags: ACORN, Barack Obama
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The Four Battleground States
Graphic from Electoral-Vote.com
Karl Rove in the Wall Street Journal today says four key battleground states will decide the Presidental Race for 2008.Other states will see serious competition, including Florida, Pennsylvania, Nevada, New Hampshire, Missouri and Wisconsin. But Colorado, Virginia, Michigan and Ohio are likely to be the center of the action. To win, Mr. Obama needs to pick up 18 electoral votes more than John Kerry received, meaning Mr. Obama must carry Colorado or Virginia and add another small state to his column. If Mr. McCain carries Michigan as well as Ohio, it would make Mr. Obama’s Electoral College math very difficult. And if Mr. McCain can limit GOP losses to one or two small states from those won by the GOP in 2004, he’ll be America’s 44th president.
Flap agrees and having traveled to Nevada and Colorado this summer can verify that television advertising is very heavy in those states.
Michigan is the key and whichever Vice President hopeful polls the best will be McCain’s choice.
Stay tuned……
Technorati Tags: Barack Obama, John McCain
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President 2012: The Final Electoral College Map
The Romney campaign this afternoon conceded the last state (Florida) in play from Tuesday’s Presidential election.
In total, only two states from the McCain Vs. Obama race flipped red from blue in the Electoral College – Indiana and North Carolina.
President Obama won the election with a total of 332 ECV to Mitt Romney’s 206 ECV.
This is certainly different from my final map which narrowly had Romney beating the President. I was surprised and believe the Romney Campaign was surprised as well.
Poll assumptions, averages and calculations, most notably by Nate Silver at the New York Times 538 blog had the results more accurately predicted. Larry Sabato over at the University of Virginia also had some successful prognostications.
Look at Nate Silver’s Tipping Point Analysis graph – it lays out the work for the GOP in 2016.
The same key battleground states in the 2012 race may very well be in play. Of course, Hillary Clinton or New York Governor Cuomo will be the Democratic candidate and the Republicans will also choose another.
In order to flip more states red in the Electoral College and win the election, the Republicans must win more votes in Florida, Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Iowa, and perhaps Wisconsin.
There may be two approaches as noted by Silver and I concur.
The Republican Party will have four years to adapt to the new reality. Republican gains among Hispanic voters could push Colorado and Nevada back toward the tipping point, for example.
States like Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Iowa are overwhelmingly white – but also highly educated, with fairly progressive views on social policy. If Republicans moderated their tone on social issues, they might be more competitive in these states, while regaining ground in Northern Virginia and in the Philadelphia suburbs.
The Republican Party has a few months to adapt and adopt new messaging to prepare for the 2014 mid-term elections.
The data is there and now it is up to the GOP to make the necessary changes.
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Day By Day October 23, 2012 – Foreigner
The foreign policy Presidential debate last night broke NO new ground.
Mitt Romney looked and was ill.
President Obama was the aggressor and had to be as it is perceived he is trailing in his re-election race. Obama won on points.
Mitt Romney did what he had to do – not look like a radical, Barry Goldwater type. He succeeded and the campaign continues into the last two weeks.
The key battleground states at this point are Wisconsin, Iowa, and Colorado. I will have more on this and a new Electoral College map soon.
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Day By Day August 24, 2012 – Profit
President Obama will need more and more campaign cash since Mitt Romney has been able to out fund raise Obama.
Since the President does not have much of a record on which to run, he will need the ad buys to slime his opponent in the key battleground states. But, why shouldn’t Obama go on the stump for cash?
He certainly has not been very good at governance.
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Day By Day August 21, 2012 – Build It
Chris, Obama Crony Capitalism WILL be the subject of television ads in the key battleground states during the last month of the Presidential campaign.
All of the Obama Administration waste and corrupt practices will be distilled down to thirty second television spots.
There will be many…..
