• Pinboard Links,  The Morning Flap

    The Morning Flap: December 9, 2011

    December 9, 2011 /

    From the Crystal Ball

    These are my links for December 8th through December 9th:

    • THE GOP PRESIDENTIAL FIELD MAY NOT BE CLOSED – Conventional wisdom is that the Republican presidential field is set, and that it is much too late for a new candidate to enter the race.

      In years past, that would be absolutely correct. Over the last few decades, dozens of primaries and caucuses have been shoe-horned into the opening weeks of the election year, with the tendency on the Republican side for the front-running candidate to score a quick knockout.

      But next year, the arrangement of the primary calendar is much different. It is less condensed at the front, much more loaded with events at the back, with the prospect of a viable, late-starting candidate quite real.

      This is not to say that it will happen, but simply to note that it could. Such a scenario could not have unfolded in 2008, when the early January events were followed in short order by an early February Super Tuesday vote-fest that involved nearly half the country.

      But the elongated layout of the nominating calendar this time provides the opportunity for a late-starting candidate to emerge. Should Mitt Romney stumble badly in the January events in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida, another establishment Republican could enter the race in early February and still compete directly in states with at least 1,200 of the 2,282 or so GOP delegates. Many of them will be up for grabs after April 1 when statewide winner-take-all is possible.

      Similarly, should non-Romney alternatives led by Newt Gingrich, Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry fall flat in the January contests, there would be time for the conservative wing of the party to find a new champion to carry its banner through the bulk of the primary season.

    • The Real G.O.P. Dark Horse: None of the Above – Two of my favorite analysts, Rhodes Cook and Josh Putnam, have a good debate going about just how plausible it is that a Republican who is not currently running for president could enter the race later and potentially win it (probably necessitating a brokered convention). Those of you who follow my Twitter feed will know that I think Mr. Cook has the stronger side of the argument; I think there is a small but nontrivial chance that the Republican nominee could be someone like Jeb Bush, Paul Ryan, Mitch Daniels, Tim Pawlenty or Chris Christie. (In fact, I was speculating about these scenarios as long as a month ago.)

      I’m not going to describe the means by which this would occur; Mr. Cook covers that in great detail. Instead, I’m more interested in the motive.

    • Twitter Halls of Fame and Shame : JIMROMENESKO.COM – Twitter has a way of making heroes and villains of people — those who earn “15 minutes of fame” because of the medium and others (far more of them at this point) who sully their reputations by tweeting before they think. I’ve created two Tumblr blogs to document this cultural phenomenon for posterity:

      Twitter Hall of Fame: http://twitterfame.tumblr.com/
      Twitter Hall of Shame: http://twittershame.tumblr.com/

    • Amazon starts row with retailers in US – – The row has broken out only days after James Daunt, the managing director of Waterstone’s, criticised Amazon – calling it a “ruthless, money-making devil”.

      The new Amazon Price Check app and promotion, which is starting from this Saturday, will allow people to perform a price check on an item in a shop, by scanning in the bar code using the app on their iPhone or Android device. The online retail giant will then offer a $5 discount to shoppers who carry out this market research for it for free, on any item across the site, including the same item they wanted to buy in the first place.

      The American Retail Industry Leaders’ Association issued the following statement about Amazon’s attempt to poach shoppers at the point of sale: “Retailers compete on price 365 days a year, and at no time is that competition hotter than during the make-or-break holiday shopping season. However, by continuing to evade collecting state sales taxes, Amazon’s exploitation of a pre-Internet tax loophole is resulting in a 6-10 percent perceived price advantage over their competitors on Main Street.

    • Trump might scrub his GOP presidential debate – Business mogul Donald Trump said Friday he might scrub a presidential debate that so far has drawn only Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum.

      Trump, the reality television star who has not ruled out an independent White House bid, had hoped for all of the Republican candidates to join in a debate he would moderate Dec. 27 in Iowa. Most have decided not to, leaving only Gingrich, a former House speaker, and Santorum, a former Pennsylvania senator.

      “I have to look into it,” Trump told Fox Business Network when asked whether he would host a two-candidate debate.

      Trump was most indignant about Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann skipping out.

    • Gingrich Is Inspiring—and Disturbing – I had a friend once who amused herself thinking up bumper stickers for states. The one she made up for California was brilliant. “California: It’s All True.” It is so vast and sprawling a place, so rich and various, that whatever you’ve heard about its wildness, weirdness and wonders, it’s true.

      That’s the problem with Newt Gingrich: It’s all true. It’s part of the reason so many of those who know him are anxious about the thought of his becoming president. It’s also why people are looking at him, thinking about him, considering him as president.

      Ethically dubious? True. Intelligent and accomplished? True. Has he known breathtaking success and contributed to real reforms in government? Yes. Presided over disasters? Absolutely. Can he lead? Yes. Is he erratic and unreliable as a leader? Yes. Egomaniacal? True. Original and focused, harebrained and impulsive—all true.

    • NLRB Labor board withdraws Boeing complaint – The National Labor Relations Board has officially dropped its high-profile case challenging Boeing’s decision to open a nonunion plant in South Carolina.

      The move Friday came after the Machinists union approved a 4-year contract extension with Boeing earlier this week and agreed to withdraw its charge that the company violated labor laws.

      Lafe Solomon, the agency’s acting general counsel, says settlement is the outcome he had always preferred. The agency settles about 90 percent of its cases.

      Under the deal, Boeing promised to build the new version of the 737 in Washington state and the Machinists agreed to drop allegations that Boeing opened the South Carolina plant in retaliation for previous strikes.

      Despite intense criticism of the case, Solomon says he was following the law and would do it again.

    • (500) http://flapsblog.com/2011/12/09/flap-twitter-updates-for-2011-12-09-2/ – @Flap Twitter Updates for 2011-12-09 #tcot #catcot
    • Flap’s Dentistry Blog: The Morning Drill: December 8, 2011 – The Morning Drill: December 8, 2011
    • Putin slams Clinton for encouraging protesters – Prime Minister Vladimir Putin strongly criticized U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton on Thursday, accusing her of encouraging and funding Russians protesting election fraud, and warned of a wider Russian crackdown on dissent.

      By describing Russia’s parliamentary election as rigged, Putin said Clinton “gave a signal” to his opponents.

      “They heard this signal and with the support of the U.S. State Department began their active work,” Putin said in televised remarks. He said the United States is spending “hundreds of millions” of dollars to influence Russian politics with the aim of weakening a rival nuclear power.

    • Still Not Too Late for Another Candidate – Still Not Too Late for Another Candidate #tcot #catcot #fb
    • President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Newt Gingrich Surges in 3 Key Battleground States as President Obama Struggles | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Newt Gingrich Surges in 3 Key Battleground States as President Obam… #tcot #catcot
    • California Proposition 8 on Gay Marriage Back in Court Today » Flap’s California Blog – California Proposition 8 on Gay Marriage Back in Court Today
    • News from The Associated Press – RT @AP: Romney campaign switches strategy with broadside against Gingrich, as rival rises in the polls #GOP: -ldh
    • The Morning Flap: December 8, 2011 | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – The Morning Flap: December 8, 2011 #tcot #catcot
  • Twitter

    @Flap Twitter Updates for 2011-12-09

    December 9, 2011 /

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  • Electoral College,  President 2012

    President 2012: How Does the Electoral College Look – One Year Out?

    November 7, 2011 /


    NBC has their battleground map above and their analysis.

    A year out from Election Day 2012, NBC’s battleground map shows that the presidential contest is shaping up to be VERY competitive and potentially VERY close; think 2004 meets 2000, with the 2008 states. According to the map, 196 electoral votes are in the Democratic column, while 195 are in the GOP column. And 147 electoral votes are considered a toss-up. The map also shows the toll the past summer took on President Obama: In April, it was 232 Dem, 191 GOP, with 115 toss-up.

    • Solid Dem (no chance at flip): DC, DE, HI, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT (67 electoral votes)
    • Likely Dem (takes a landslide to flip): CA, CT, IL, ME, WA (98)
    • Lean Dem: MN, NJ, OR (31)
    • Toss-up: CO, FL, IA, MI, NV, NM, NC, OH, PA, VA, WI (147)
    • Lean GOP: AZ, GA, MO, NE (one EV), NH (42)
    • Likely GOP (takes a landslide to flip): AL, AR, IN, LA, MS, MT, NE (four EVs), ND, SC, SD, TX (100)
    • Solid GOP (no chance at flip): AK, ID, KS, KY, OK, TN, UT, WV, WY (53)

    The fact is some of the key battleground states which I have been writing about since the beginning of 2011 have swung to the GOP and there remain just a few battlegrounds. One of these states must be won by President Obama in order to win the Presidency. These states are: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Ohio.

    Here is my map which will reflect the Electoral College votes if the Presidential electionwere held today. This is an accurate representation of the polling data I have seen and will likely be the result of next November’s election.

    So, the GOP will concentrate its campaign resources into probably six states, depending upon who the nominee is – Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Colorado and Nevada. It is in these states where the race for the Presidency will be run.

    And, as of today, the Republican candidate wins the Presidency 275 Vs. 263.

    If you, the reader, would like to test other Electoral College vote scenarios, go here to this interactive website.

  • Pinboard Links,  The Morning Flap

    The Morning Flap: November 4, 2011

    November 4, 2011 /

     

    These are my links for November 3rd through November 4th:

    • New Herman Cain SuperPAC ad: ‘A high-tech lynching’– A slick, dramatic new web ad in support of Herman Cain hammers on the comparison between the allegations against him and the confirmation hearings of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas.The spot, from the super PAC Americans for Herman Cain, uses footage of Thomas at his confirmation hearing responding to sexual harassment allegations: “It is a high-tech lynching for uppity blacks who in any way deign to think for themselves. It is a message that unless you kowtow to an old order you will be lynched, destroyed, caricatured rather than hung from a tree.”The ad also quotes various black liberals (Al Sharpton, Cornel West) criticizing Cain. At the end the words, “Don’t let liberals do it again” appear on the screen.
    • Gallup Poll: Obama, Romney Tied Nationally and in Swing States – Registered voters nationally and in 12 key swing states are evenly divided in their preferences for president in the 2012 election between President Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. Romney is at least somewhat more competitive versus Obama than either Rick Perry or Herman Cain, in polling conducted before the recent allegations of sexual harassment against Cain surfaced.
    • U.S. Payrolls Rose in October; Jobless Rate 9%– U.S. employment climbed in October at the slowest pace in four months, illustrating the “frustratingly slow” progress cited by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke this week.The 80,000 increase in payrolls was less than forecast and followed gains in the prior two months that were revised up by 102,000, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The unemployment rate fell to a six-month low of 9 percent from 9.1 percent even as the labor force expanded.The crisis in Europe and looming deadline on U.S. budget talks may be prompting companies to hold back on concern failure to reach resolutions will put the global recovery at risk. Fed policy makers project the jobless rate won’t drop under 8 percent until 2013 at the earliest, one reason why Bernanke this week said additional stimulus “remains on the table.”“We’re making progress at a very slow pace,” said John Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina, who projected an 85,000 gain in payrolls. “It indicates continued consumer spending, getting a little better over time. The labor market is consistent with moderate economic growth.”

      The median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey was for a gain of 95,000. Payroll estimates of 91 economists ranged from increases of 50,000 to 150,000.

    • Cain rises in Post-ABC poll despite scandal; most Republicans dismiss allegations– Businessman Herman Cain and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney are running nearly even atop the field of 2012 GOP presidential hopefuls, a new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows, with most Republicans dismissing the harassment allegations that over the past week have roiled Cain’s campaign.Seven in 10 Republicans say reports that Cain made unwanted advances toward two employees when he was head of the National Restaurant Association in the 1990s — allegations which have been stiffly rebutted by Cain’s campaign — do not matter when it comes to picking a candidate.But the potential threat to his burgeoning campaign is evident as well, with Cain slipping to third place among those who see the charges as serious, and Republican women significantly more likely than men to say the scandal makes them less apt to support Cain.The poll was conducted Oct. 31 through Nov. 3, starting the evening after Politico first reported the harassment allegations. Support for Cain was basically steady over the four nights of interviewing, even as new charges against him surfaced.

      Nearly a quarter of all Republicans and GOP-leaning independents now back Cain as the party’s nominee, his best showing in Post-ABC polls this year, and up significantly from early October. At 23 percent nationally, Cain is neck-and-neck with Romney (24 percent) atop the GOP field.

    • 91% of Recruiters Use Social Networks to Screen Candidates!– Just how important is your social footprint now if you are looking for a job, well, 91% of recruiters use social networks to screen candidates now.In a recent study by the social media monitoring server Reppler, results showed more than 90% of recruiters and hiring managers have visited a potential candidate’s profile on a social network as part of the screening process. And a whopping 69% of recruiters have rejected a candidate based on content found on his or her social networking profiles — an almost equal proportion of recruiters 68%, though, have hired a candidate based on his or her presence on those networks.
    • @Flap Twitter Updates for 2011-11-04 | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – @Flap Twitter Updates for 2011-11-04 #tcot #catcot
    • Dilbert November 3, 2011 – Ugly » Flap’s California Blog – Dilbert November 3, 2011 – Ugly
    • President 2012 Poll Watch: Obama Faces an Uphill Path to Re-Election in Key Battleground States | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – President 2012 Poll Watch: Obama Faces an Uphill Path to Re-Election in Key Battleground States #tcot #catcot
    • PJ Media » BREAKING: PJM Sources Report Details of Alleged Cain Incident – BREAKING: PJM Sources Report Details of Alleged Cain Incident
    • Celebrity Gossip | Entertainment News | Celebrity News | TMZ.com – Pete Rose Sued By Dentist — He Charlie Hustled Me!! |
    • SB 202 California Initiative Law Referendum Effort Sputters » Flap’s California Blog – SB 202 California Initiative Law Referendum Effort Sputters
    • 12 charged with bilking Medicare of $95 million – CNN.com – 12 charged with bilking Medicare of $95 million: “Federal authorities have charged 12 people in connection with …
    • Thousands of lives could be saved if rest of UK adopted average diet in England, study concludes – Thousands of lives could be saved if rest of UK adopted average diet in England, study concludes: “Around 4,000 …
    • Pete Rose Sued By Dentist — He Charlie Hustled Me!! | TMZ.com – Pete Rose Sued By Dentist — He Charlie Hustled Me!!: “Baseball won’t have him back … and now, Pete Rose’s den…
    • Flap’s Smiles and Health Headlines: November 3, 2011 | Smiles For A Lifetime – Temporary (Locum Tenens) Dentistry – Flap’s Smiles and Health Headlines: November 3, 2011
    • The Afternoon Flap: November 3, 2011 | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – The Afternoon Flap: November 3, 2011 #tcot #catcot
  • Twitter

    @Flap Twitter Updates for 2011-11-04

    November 4, 2011 /

    Powered by Twitter Tools

  • American Crossroads,  Barack Obama

    American Crossroads Channels Bill Clinton in Ads Against President Obama

    October 11, 2011 /

    American Crossroads: “Don’t”

    The ads are running in the key battleground states of Pennsylvania and Florida.

    From the press release:

    American Crossroads today announced it is releasing a TV ad in Pennsylvania and Florida as part of a continuing campaign to aggressively counter President Obama’s efforts to sell his second stimulus plan at state and local events.

    American Crossroads released its ad, “Don’t”, last night in the Pittsburgh and Orlando designated market areas, to provide a message to counter the president as he visits there on Tuesday. The ad, which features former President Bill Clinton decrying new tax increases in his own words, went up in Orlando and Pittsburgh on Monday night, and will run Monday night, all day Tuesday and Wednesday on local network stations and cable news. The $70k total buy is the second local bracketing effort by Crossroads in the paid media since Obama launched his campaign for his second round of stimulus.

    Interesting how the President is traveling to key battleground states which he needs to win in the Electoral College to deliver his “JOBS” message. Maybe Obama should remain in Washington to convince Democrat members of the Senate to pass his legislative program.

    In any case, Obama can campaign all he wants, but this plan is DEAD in the GOP controlled House. But, of course, Obama knew this before he proposed it – he simply wanted a foil upon which to run for re-election = a Do-Nothing Congress.

  • Day By Day,  Sarah Palin

    Day By Day September 21, 2011 – Never Again

    September 21, 2011 /


    Day By Day by Chris Muir

    Sarah Palin was “destroyed” by the Lamestream media and the Far Left in 2008 because she was a threat. She continues as a threat to them today with not only with a potential candidacy but also her ability to frame issues and communicate them.

    Will she be a candidate for the Presidency in 2012?

    Perhaps. The key will be whether she has the ability or popularilty in the polls to beat President Obama in the key battleground states.

    On October 1 when the Republican National Committee finalizes GOP Primary election/caucus dates, we will have a better idea as to what Sarah will do.

    Just a week or so to go.

  • Boeing,  Mitt Romney,  President 2012

    President 2012: Mitt Romney Delivers Labor Policy Speech – Backs Boeing

    September 12, 2011 /

    Paul Munsch is the owner of St. Louis Paving in St. Louis, Missouri. He and his employees have faced years of bullying by the union bosses with whom President Obama continues to side.

    GOP Presidential candidate Mitt Romney delivered a labor policy speech this morning in South Carolina before heading to Tampa, Florida for tonight’s GOP Presidential debate.

    Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) invoked aerospace giant Boeing in his labor policy speech Monday as an example of the type of American innovation he would encourage as president.

    Romney used the opportunity to hit President Obama on his labor policies, highlighting what he called the “egregious example” of the president’s failed policies in South Carolina.

    Romney toured Boeing’s new South Carolina plant prior to the speech, a strong indication of his commitment to stand with South Carolina in the dispute between that state and the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB), an independent federal agency. The board is suing Boeing for allegedly moving the plant from Washington state in retaliation for labor strikes there.

    “It’s an assault on business, it’s an assault on jobs, it’s an assault on states that have right-to-work policies,” Romney said of the NLRB suit.

    On Monday, Romney also named William Kilberg, the lead counsel for Boeing in the ongoing dispute, as a co-chairman of his Labor Policy Advisory Group. Kilberg will help “shape the policies I am proposing to return power from the labor bosses to the workers and businesses that can get our economy going again,” Romney said in a statement.

    “Boeing, when they decided where they were going to build their new expansion facility, chose South Carolina, chose America,” Romney said in the speech. “The folks that are their No. 1 competitor, Airbus, chose China for their expansion. … Boeing did the right thing. Boeing should not be punished for doing the right thing. Boeing should be celebrated and encouraged.”

    The issue has become important in key state South Carolina, where Gov. Nikki Haley (R) has repeatedly called on Obama, along with the Republican presidential candidates, to state his position on the lawsuit.

    This Boeing flap in South Carolina WILL be an issue in the general election. I can see the political ads already flying in the key battleground states.

    President Obama is likely to allow the NLRB vacancies go unfilled and thus any further NLRB action to avoid any further political embarrassment from his friends in Big Labor.

  • Barack Obama,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012,  Rick Perry

    President 2012 GOP North Carolina Poll Watch: Rick Perry 46% Vs. Barack Obama 46%

    September 9, 2011 /

    According to the latest PPP Poll.

    Barack Obama’s approval rating in North Carolina has fallen to 43%, with 53% of voters disapproving of him.  That’s the lowest PPP has found in monthly polling of the state since the weekend before last year’s general election when Democrats were annihilated at the polls.

    Obama’s got 2 big problems: independents and a loss of support with his party base.  Only 31% of independent voters think he’s doing a good job to 62% who disapprove. He was at an already bad 38/56 a month ago and things have only gotten worse for him.  Obama’s other issue is that he’s losing support from Democrats.  He was at 79/16 and now he’s down to 75/20.  He also has only a 7% approval with Republicans but that’s really par for the course at this point- we’re well beyond the point where he can expect to get any support across party lines.

    Despite Obama’s atrocious approval numbers he remains competitive with Rick Perry and Mitt Romney in the state, at least on the surface.  He’s tied with Perry at 46% and holds the smallest of advantages over Romney at 45-44.  Those numbers aren’t as rosy for Obama as they appear to be though.  Only 5% of the undecideds in the Perry match up approve of him to 83% who disapprove and on the generic legislative ballot they support Republicans by a 57-21 margin.  It’s a similar story in the match up with Romney.  The undecideds there disapprove of Obama by a 10/81 spread and support a generic Republican 62-14.  When those folks come off the fence they’re going to be voting GOP which means if the election was today Obama would lose the state.

    Looks like North Carolina which Obama won in 2008 is trending toward the GOP. One less key battleground state the Republicans have to contend perhaps.

    As the number of key battleground states shrink, the more hotly contested will be the remainder – most notably Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada and maybe Florida.

    The entire poll is here.

  • Barack Obama,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012,  Rick Perry

    President 2012 Florida Poll Watch: Obama 44% Vs. Romney 44%

    August 4, 2011 /

    According to the latest Quinnipiac Poll.

     President Barack Obama is losing support among Florida voters, especially among independents, a poll released Thursday shows.

    Fifty percent of voters surveyed randomly by landline telephone between July 27-Aug. 2 by Quinnipiac (Conn.) University said Obama would not deserve a second term in the election were held today. However, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney was the only announced Republican candidate with enough support in the poll to give the president a strong challenge. Both men were favored by 44 percent of those questioned.

    In a matchup against Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who is expected to get into the race for the GOP presidential nomination, Obama was favored 44 percent to 39 percent.

    Florida with 29 Electoral College votes is one of the key battleground states that the GOP must win in order to deny President Obama re-election. So far, so good for Republicans Mitt Romney and Rick Perry. The President against both men is below the magic 50 per cent mark.

    Remember Obama beat John McCain in Florida by three points in the 2008 Presidential race and without Florida’s EC votes, Obama has a reduced path to re-election. 270 votes are needed to win.

    The president’s popularity dipped slightly in Quinnipiac’s survey of 743 voters after the long, acrimonious battle on the debt ceiling. His negative rating increased from 50 percent to 51 percent despite most respondents, 36 percent, saying he acted in their best interests during the lengthy debate compared to 32 percent for Republican House Speaker John Boehner and 12 percent for Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.

    Overall, 42 percent said the president deserves re-election.

    Obama’s job approval rating in Florida was 44 percent compared to 51 percent who disapproved, a drop from a 51-43 favorable rating he enjoyed in a May survey by Quinnipiac shortly after U.S. Navy SEALs killed terrorist leader Osama bin Laden in Pakistan.