-
President 2012 Poll: Romney Takes the Lead over Obama
President Obama and Mitt Romney
According to the latest CBS-New York Times national poll.
Mitt Romney holds a 3 percent lead over President Obama nationally in the latest CBS News-New York Times poll. Romney took 46 percent in the poll, compared to Obama’s 43 percent. The 3 percent difference is within the poll’s 4 point margin of error. Obama and Romney were tied at 46 in the same poll conducted last month.
The president’s endorsement of same-sex marriage has dominated the headlines recently, but the poll found the economy will be the most important issue to voters in the fall. Sixty-two percent said the economy was the most important issue, while the deficit was a distant second at 11 percent. Only 7 percent said same-sex marriage was the most important issue in the election. President Obama’s job approval rating has been hovering around break-even, and is at 48 percent approval and 48 disapproval, according to the poll. Romney continues to lead Obama among independents, 43 to 36, while Obama leads among moderates, 50 to 39.
This is a good poll for Mitt Romney and to be so close to Obama with the campaign barely starting demonstrates the President’s vulnerability. This election is ALL about the economy and jobs and Obama’s pivot to gay marriage has to be viewed as a cynical attempt to change the national discourse.
It hasn’t and it won’t.
Mitt Romney’s campaign has demonstrated a discipline, unlike McCain’s and will stay like a laser beam trained on the economy.
-
Economic Growth Stalls as Unemployment Decreases to 8.1%
The Obama economy continues to under perform as the American unemployment rate decreases to 8.1 per cent.The nation’s economy added 115,00 jobs in April while the unemployment rate dropped one-tenth of a point to 8.1 percent, according to a report released Friday—the day before President Obama officially launches his campaign.
The figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics are lower than a month ago and were also below what many analysts had expected. They also showed the nation’s labor participation rate dropping to a 30-year low of 63.6 percent, suggesting workers continue to leave the labor force because their job prospects are so grim.
The dismal numbers add to the sense that the labor market is cooling down after months of stronger growth, and come as unwelcome news for Obama, whose campaign launch includes rallies in Virginia and Ohio on Saturday.
Obama’s likely GOP rival Mitt Romney is hammering the president on the economy, which Romney sees as his best argument for reaching the White House.
This is not good news for President Obama especially with his re-election campaign starting tomorrow.
Look for Romney to seize the opportunity and begin to run economic-centric ads in key battleground states.
-
President 2012: Super PAC Restore Our Future Ad Buys Reveal States Which Are in Play for Mitt Romney
Restore Our Future: SavedThis positive ad has aired before for Mitt Romney but where it is “on air” is quite revealing.
A pro-Romney super PAC, Restore our Future, is reaching into the memory chest for its first big ad buy of the general election season, running a 30-second spot that recounts how Mitt Romney helped track down the daughter of a business partner in 1996.
The ad, called “Saved,” will run in nine battleground states, costing the group a total of $4.3 million, the PAC said in a statement. A major force in helping Mr. Romney beat back his Republican challengers, Restore Our Future is now turning to the battle against President Barack Obama with a distinctly positive biographical spot intended to boost Mr. Romney’s personal image by touching on a little-known episode from two decades ago.
The Romney campaign briefly ran a nearly identical spot in late 2007 in an effort to boost the candidate’s standing before the primary season began. In this election cycle, the super PAC has run the ads in 16 states around the country during the lead up to primaries in those states.
The group plans to run the ad in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia.
No real secret as to what are the key battleground states – just where Mitt Romney will spend the advertising dollars to win them.
Now, we know.
-
President 2012: Romney Might Convince Me to Accept Vice Presidency – Chris Christie
New Jersey Governor Chris Christie arrives for a March 2012 Town Hall
Mitt Romney could NOT do worse than Marco Rubio or Chris Christie.New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie on Monday said Romney “might be able to convince” him to serve as his No. 2 on the Republican presidential ticket.
“He might be able to convince me. He’s a convincing guy, but I really love this job. I really want to stay in this job” Christie said during a high school visit in Plainsboro Township, New Jersey.
The popular Republican governor and early Romney backer said he is not interested in serving as vice president, but that he would be open to discussing the position with Romney.
“I really have no interest in being vice president, but if Governor Romney calls and asks me to sit down and talk to him about it, I’d listen because I think you owe the nominee of your party that level of respect and who knows what he’s going to say,” Christie said. “We’ll wait and see.”
I predicted four years ago that John McCain would pick little known Alaska Governor Sarah Palin. This time I think Mitt Romney will choose ……..
Marco Rubio.
-
President 2012: Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani Team Up on Bin Laden Anniversary Date
Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani during 2008 Presidential race
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is proving again he is a good Republican party man.Rudy Giuliani will appear at an event with Mitt Romney on Tuesday to mark the anniversary of the assault on Osama bin Laden, a campaign aide confirmed to CNN.
The death of the former al Qaeda leader is currently a political talking point between the campaigns of the former Massachusetts governor and President Barack Obama, with both sides attempting to capitalize on the one-year anniversary.
There is NO love lost between these two. But, Rudy is always the loyal Republican and will likely do whatever he is asked to elect Mitt Romney.
And, I do not exepect Romney to ask Rudy to be any part of his administration.
I don’ think Rudy particularly cares.
-
President 2012: Larry Sabato Lays Out the Electoral College Battle for the White House
From Sabato’s Crystal Ball
Larry Sabato lays out the Electoral College analysis for the race for the Presidency in 2012.The London Olympics isn’t the only venue for world-class sport this year. Political gold is waiting to be won in November, and the only way to grab the top U.S.A. medal is to master Electoral College math. It is both deceptively easy and maddeningly complex. A candidate has to accumulate 270 votes in a tiny universe of 538, but those 538 will be generated by 130 million votes cast in 51 separate entities. A game that looks like checkers is really multi-dimensional chess.
Still, the deep polarization of party politics has simplified the process somewhat. Remarkably, about 40 states — and maybe more — have almost no chance of flipping from one party to the other in the 2012 Electoral College. If President Obama gets his way, the electoral map will look very close to the way it did four years ago; on the other hand, Mitt Romney needs to flip a relative handful of states to take up residence at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.
Obama’s 2008 performance was close to the high-water mark for a modern Democrat: 365 electoral votes (359 under the new 2010 census apportionment). Obama did the seemingly impossible by very narrowly pulling two long-time Republican states, Indiana and North Carolina, to his column and even winning an electoral vote in Nebraska’s Second Congressional District, while narrowly losing Missouri and Montana. Those latter two states are widely believed to have moved out of his reach for 2012.
It is a little-known Electoral College tidbit that a president reelected to a second term has always added a state to his coalition that he did not win during his first successful run. Sometimes, in the early days of the Republic, it was a state that didn’t exist during a president’s first bid. But it appears that Obama, if reelected, will break this trend. The only state John McCain won that Obama appears to have a chance of flipping is Arizona, but that is a long shot that would require a massive turnout effort by the Obama campaign among Hispanic voters.
To compare 2012 politics to war for a moment, the current electoral map is akin to World War I’s Western Front trench warfare: Massive amounts of manpower and resources will be needed to move the frontlines even a smidgen. And the less the lines move, the better it is for Obama.
Read all of the post, which is in line with my previous analysis. Watch the video embedded below:
It looks to me that the battle will be waged in even fewer states – Ohio, Virginia, Nevada and Florida. Voters in those states should feel the brunt of all of the intense ad campaigns.
In any case, here is my prediction of how the Electoral College will turn out in November: Romney 275 Vs. Obama 263:
This map is from the interactive site, 270towin.com
-
President 2012: State of the Race for the Presidency: April 25, 2012
With Mitt Romney locking up the Republican nomination last night, it is time to look at the general election face off between him and President Obama. The Real Clear Politics poll average has Obama up by 4.1 points.Now, let’s look at the Electoral College vote averages (Real Clear Politics):
Here we have the state of the race: President Obama is up by a few points and there are a number of key battleground states which will determine who wins in November.Here is my prediction:
This map is from the interactive site, 270towin.com
Let the campaigns begin…..
-
President 2012: Mitt Romney Now the Presumptive Republican Nominee for President
After last night’s sweep of five states, Mitt Romney, it is safe to say, the presumptive Republican nominee for President. -
President 2012 Poll Watch: Arizona in Play?
If Arizona is in play, then Mitt Romney will be a collosal Biggest Loser in November. This poll while close is probably an outlier.With the 2012 presidential election just over six months away, the latest statewide Merrill/Morrison Institute poll found that Arizonans are evenly divided on whom they will support in November.
According to the poll of 488 registered voters, 42 percent said they would vote for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, while 40 percent said they would support President Barack Obama and 18 percent were undecided. Because the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent, if the election were held today the contest for Arizona’s 11 electoral votes would be a “toss up.”
The poll found that the electorate is divided along party lines: 80 percent of Republicans said they would vote for Romney, 78 percent of Democrats for Obama. Although the sample of political independents is small (n=166), independents appear to be breaking slightly more for Obama (38 percent) than Romney (28 percent). However, the independent vote is still up for grabs because 34 percent of independents said they are undecided.
“In Arizona, like the rest of the nation, political independents may determine who wins in November,” said poll director Dr. Bruce Merrill, a senior fellow at Morrison Institute for Public Policy. “The eventual outcome also may be dependent on whether former Surgeon General Richard Carmona can mount a vigorous campaign for retiring Sen. John Kyl’s seat, a campaign that would stimulate turnout in the Hispanic community. While I think if the election were held today Romney probably would win, it appears Obama can mount a competitive campaign in Arizona.”
Romney appears to have the Tea Party support. Among the 39 percent of the electorate who said they support what the Tea Party stands for, 75 percent said they would vote for Romney.
But the poll also found that younger voters disproportionately support Obama while older voters support Romney. No “gender gap” was found among Arizona voters, however, as 40 percent of both men and women said they would vote for Obama.
Remember Arizona has not sent its Electoral College votes to a Democrat since Harry Truman in 1948.
But, if anything this poll may make more of a case for Romney to add an Hispanic to the ticket – like Senator Marco Rubio od Florida or Governor Susan Martinez of New Mexico.
-
Video: Rudy Giuliani Finally Endorses Mitt Romney on Eve of New York Primary Election
A little late in the game since Mitt Romney has already locked up the Republican Presidential nomination with Rick Santorum’s suspending his campaign. Newt Gingrich will NOT be able to beat Romney in delegates to the GOP Convention.Here is the video:
You might be wondering why Rudy, the former New York City Mayor has waited so long? This is an easy one – Rudy doesn’t like Mitt much – especially since the 2008 campaign when Romney pushed personal details to the press about Giuliani’s wives and family.
Ed over at Hot Air has transcribed the quotes:
When you have one of these things, it leaves animosity, no doubt about it. The only time it didn’t happen was with John McCain, because John was an old friend, and we sort of palled around a lot when we campaigned against each other, told a lot of jokes. Usually, ones I can’t repeat. I love John. I almost didn’t run because John was running, so it was easy for me — I just got out and supported him. I see that [toughness] as a virtue. I don’t think the Democrats have any idea what they’re running against. I mean, Mitt Romney is a tough, tough campaigner, and his campaign organization is really tough.
I agree with Rudy about Mitt Romney being a tough campaigner. Mitt has not spend the last 5-6 years of his life not to give Obama a race he will remember.
But, I, also, understand Rudy’s hope for another GOP Presidential nominee. And, Rudy won’t be waiting for a call from Mitt for any cabinet position either.
Rudy did what a good GOP party man does – but he doesn’t have to like it.
