• Barack Obama,  Day By Day,  Mitt Romney,  President 2012

    Day By Day March 11, 2012 – Off Course

    March 11, 2012 /

    Day By Day by Chris Muir

    Chris, are you saying that Mitt Romney is NOT the answer to defeating the ‘Statist” GOP Establishment or President Obama’s LEFT ideology and leadership.

    Well, you are correct.

    Let us hope that Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich can both stop a Romney win in the GOP primary races.

    I say let the delegates elected and chosen to the Republican Convention make the decision in August.

    California Presidential primary election here we come!

  • Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  President 2012,  Rick Santorum,  Ron Paul

    President 2012: State of the GOP Race

    March 7, 2012 /

    Mitt Romney had a big night last night (Super Tuesday Eve) winning 6 of 10 races but….

    Mitt Romney eked out a win in Ohio over Rick Santorum which, when coupled with victories for the former Massachusetts governor in Vermont, Massachusetts, Virginia and Idaho, ensured that he would remain the frontrunner for the Republican nomination heading out of Super Tuesday.

    And, Romney leads in the actual Republican Party delegate count.

    A few more “bad nights” like Super Tuesday and Mitt Romney will be the Republican presidential nominee. With his haul from yesterday, according to AP, Romney now has 415 delegates, Rick Santorum 176, Newt Gingrich 105, and Ron Paul 47 out of the 1,144 needed for the GOP nomination.

    To be the frontrunner, you need to kill the frontrunner. And like a poor marksman—or at least an underfunded one—Santorum keeps missing the target. First Michigan, now Ohio. Online betting market Intrade gives Romney a 90% chance of being the GOP nominee. Of course, no one has a mathematical lock on the nomination yet. The fight will continue.

    But….

    Mitt Romney has not closed the door on Newt, Santorum or Paul. They all will continue in the race and probably draw enough votes and delegates to deny Mitt Romney the 1,144 needed to win the Presidential nomination.

    It’s far from over. Despite claiming six state wins last night and upping his delegate count to 404, Mitt Romney still does not have a lock on the nomination—or even a clear path to claiming it if his opponents don’t leave the field.

    Consider this: if Mitt wins every remaining all-or-nothing state but one, and half of the remaining proportional delegates, he would likely still fall short of the magic nomination number of 1,144—which would force him to rely on unpledged delegates, the Republican version of the infamous Democratic super-delegates in 2008, to claim his party’s mantle.

    After last night’s election results the chances of a “brokered Republican convention” have increased and the nomination of a candidate, like Jeb Bush, Mitch Daniels or Bobby Jindal. This will probably not be a bad thing, especially looking at certain polls.

    However, if Rick Santorum can beat Newt Gingrich in the upcoming Alabama and Mississippi primary elections, it is possible that Gingrich will quit the race. Santo would then compete one on one with Romney. Santorum might be able to beat Mitt or vice versa. Perhaps they just divide up the remaining delegates.

    Should Gingrich prove obstinate and stay in the race (no matter what), it is very likely that NO candidate will have the 1,144 needed on the first nomination ballot. Then, hold onto your hats for backroom deals and the emergence of a “NEW” candidate.

    Stay tuned….

  • Mitt Romney,  President 2012

    President 2012: Mitt Romney Wins the Michigan Primary Election

    February 28, 2012 /

    A sweep for Mitt Romney tonight with wins in Michigan and Arizona.

    Mitt Romney scored a hard-won, home state triumph in Michigan and powered to victory in Arizona Tuesday night, gaining a two-state primary sweep over Rick Santorum and precious momentum in the most turbulent Republican presidential race in a generation.

    Romney tweeted his delight – and his determination: “I take great pride in my Michigan roots, and am humbled to have received so much support here these past few weeks. On to the March contests.”

    Romney has regained the Big Mo for Super Tuesday on March 7th.

    Stay tuned….

  • Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Rick Santorum

    President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Close Race in Michigan

    February 20, 2012 /

    Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney

    A couple of recent polls show a dead heat in Michigan.

    We Ask American Poll:

    • Romney – 29%
    • Santorum – 29%
    • Gingrich – 10%
    • Paul – 12%
    • Undecided – 20%

    PPP Poll:

    The Republican race for President in Michigan has tightened considerably over the last week, with what was a 15 point lead for Rick Santorum down to 4. He leads with 37% to 33% for Mitt Romney, 15% for Ron Paul, and 10% for Newt Gingrich.

    The tightening over the last week is much more a function of Romney gaining than Santorum falling. Santorum’s favorability spread of 67/23 has seen no change since our last poll, and his share of the vote has dropped only 2 points from 39% to 37%. Romney meanwhile has seen his net favorability improve 10 points from +10 (49/39) to +20 (55/35) and his vote share go from 24% to 33%.

    What we’re seeing in Michigan is a very different story from Florida where Romney surged by effectively destroying his opponent’s image- here Romney’s gains have more to do with building himself up.

    Groups Santorum has double digit leads with include Protestants (up 47-30), union members (up 43-23), Evangelicals (up 51-24), Tea Partiers (up 55-20), ‘very conservative’ voters (up 54-23), and men (up 40-28).

    Romney is leading the field with women (38-34), seniors (42-34), moderates (35-24), ‘somewhat conservative’ voters (40-34), and Catholics (43-31).

    As I have said, if Mitt Romney were to lose Michigan, the state of his youth and family legacy, there will undoubtedly be another candidate who will jump into the race. If Romney wins Michigan by a point or two, then there may also be a challenge.

    Take your pick: Mitch Daniels or Jeb Bush.

    Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich are not polling well in general election match-ups against President Obama. The GOP Establsihment will not stand by and let Santorum and/or Gingrich sink their 2012 prospects.

    But, the new candidate will have to move quickly since election deadlines loom in early March.

  • Bobby Jindal,  Jeb Bush,  Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  President 2012,  Rick Santorum

    President 2012: If Mitt Romney Loses Michigan – We Need a New Candidate Says Top GOP Senator

    February 17, 2012 /

    Former Gov. Jeb Bush speaks at the Hispanic Leadership Network’s conference, Thursday, Jan. 26, 2012 in Miami

    You knew it was going to start.

    The GOP establishment is getting antsy about Mitt Romney and if he does manage to lose Michigan – well, he is done.

    A prominent Republican senator just told me that if Romney can’t win in Michigan, the Republican Party needs to go back to the drawing board and convince somebody new to get into the race.

    “If Romney cannot win Michigan, we need a new candidate,” said the senator, who has not endorsed anyone and requested anonymity.

    The senator believes Romney will ultimately win in Michigan but says he will publicly call for the party to find a new candidate if he does not.

    “We’d get killed,” the senator said if Romney manages to win the nomination after he failed to win the state in which he grew up.

    “He’d be too damaged,” he said.  “If he can’t even win in Michigan, where his family is from, where he grew up.”

    What about Rick Santorum?

    “He’d lose 35 states,” the senator said, predicting the same fate for Newt Gingrich.

    And, who would the new candidate be?

    Jeb Bush, said this Senator.

    I, frankly, think it will be Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels or Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal – or even Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan.

    If the GOP wants to win against President Obama, they had better hope Santorum beats Romney in Michigan.

  • Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Is Mitt Romney Electable?

    February 14, 2012 /

    Graphic from PPP Polling

    Mitt Romney’s argument that he is the most electable Republican against President Obama bares close scutiny, according to the latest PPP Polls.

    One thing that has remained constant in the ever changing GOP Presidential race is that Mitt Romney is the strongest candidate against Barack Obama…at least until now.  PPP’s newest national poll finds Romney trailing Obama by 7 points at 49-42, while Santorum trails by only 5 points at 49-44.

    Santorum’s net favorability is 21 points better than Romney’s. Santorum’s at -7 (39/46), while Romney is at -28 (29/57). That’s mostly because Republicans like Santorum a lot better (+40 at 62/22 to Romney’s +2 at 43/41). But Santorum also does a good deal better with independents, coming in at -6 (40/46) to Romney’s -23 (32/55). In the head to heads Obama leads Romney by 9 with independents, but has only a 4 point advantage on Santorum with that group.
    Ron Paul has nearly matched Romney on the electability front, trailing Obama by 8 points at 49-41. Paul does the best of the Republican candidates with independents, with only a 1 point deficit to Obama. Newt Gingrich has firmly established himself as the Republican who would be the biggest general election disaster, trailing 52-40 with a 19 point deficit among independents.

    Why is Obama doing so well? It has a lot to do with this finding: 41% of voters think the economy’s getting better to only 31% who think it’s getting worse with 27% thinking that it’s staying about the same. This is the first time since Obama took office that we’ve asked a question in this vein on a national poll and found more voters feeling optimistic than pessimistic about the way things are heading.

    If the GOP nominates Mitt Romney, he will lose by as much or more than John McCain.  Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich are flawed candidates, who also will lose. There is no path to victory for any of these pols, especially with an improving economy.

    If the GOP wants to win, they need to nominate someone outside the current field – an accomplished Governor like Bobby Jindal, Mitch Daniels or Chris Christie.

    The entire poll is here.

  • Barack Obama,  Mitt Romney,  President 2012

    Updated: President 2012 Video: Mitt Romney’s Greatest Hits

    February 9, 2012 /

    Yes, this is from an Obama supporting Super PAC, but it is a preview of what is to come, if the GOP nominates Mitt Romney.

    I mean the Republican Party has an opportunity – where are the rest?

    Update:

    Below is the 2007 John McCain Opposition Research Book on Mitt Romney:

    The Romney Book