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As you recall, my GOP Congressman Elton Gallegly from Simi Valley was redistricted out of his current Congressional District 24 with the new census and by the work of the California Citizen’s Redistricting Commission.

The CD boundaries exclude his home in Simi Valley which game the long time Representative options:

• Retire
• Run in the new CD 26 (mainly Ventura County based)
• Run in the new CD 25 which has another Republican incumbent, Rep. Buck McKeon.

Apparently, Elton has decided to run in CD-25 and run against a fellow Republican incumbent Congressman.

The Antelope Valley Press last week reported last week that Congressman Elton Gallegly is either planning on retiring or running in CD25 against fellow Republican Buck McKeon. “‘As near as I can pin him, down, he’s running against me,’ said McKeon, who said he met with Gallegly last week.” This is consistent with what I’m hearing from locals as Gallegly isn’t sold on running in the Ventura’s CD26.

This opens CD26 up for Republican candidates that have held back awaiting Gallegly’s decision. The most likely serious candidate is State Senator Tony Strickland.

Here is the poop on CA-25:

And, the demographics:

Third quarter fundraising reports are out and Rep. Elton Gallegly, my Congressman, reports over $823 K cash on hand.

• Contributions: $229,221
• Expenditures: $157,407
• Cash on Hand: $823,988
• Debt: $0

Here are possible candidates, who may indeed challenge the long-time Republican incumbent.

• Steve Bennett – Ventura County Supervisor (D), Ventura
• Richard Francis – Former Ventura City Councilman (D)
• David Pollock – Moorpark City councilman (D)
• David Cruz Thayne – Westlake Village Businessman, tennis coach

Here is the poop on the district:

Gallegly saw his home drawn into Buck McKeon’s district, but he has represented Ventura County for years. With the additional of Democratic coastal communities in Ventura County added to this district and a resurgence of Democrats in the county this district is very competitive. Gallegly has been rumored to be retiring and this district may just push him over the edge. Democrats have 6-point registration advantage, Obama won this district by 16-points, but Brown lost it by 1-point. GOP state Senator Tony Strickland is looking at running here, though the district is competitive, there are no term limits.

With this fundraising activity, Gallegly is not laying down or looking like a retirement is imminent. He is active in GOP circles in the district and is home most weekends. Elton would either have to live just outside the district or move a few miles to be within the CA-24 borders.

However, he is widely know throughout Ventura County, having represented most of the CA-24 for decades.

I look for Elton to run for re-election, barring any health problems. If he doesn’t, look for California State Senator Tony Strickland to enter the race.

I guess the poll is over or the Ventura County Star took the poll offline, but it is now down off of their main page. Remember I first mentioned the poll earlier this morning.

Can the results be any more clear?

The answer to the question as to whether Rep. Elton Gallegly should retire is NO: 54% No Vs. 36% Yes.

Now, it is not a huge sample and unscientific as well, but as the reader can see there is no groundswell to get rid of the long-time GOP Congressman.

Here is the poll as it appeared this morning on the Ventura County Star home page:

There has been speculation that Rep. Elton Gallegly (R- Simi Valley), my Congressman, would retire rather than run in the new Ventura County centric CA-26. I shot down the speculation here.

Today, the Ventura County Star is trying to embarrass the Congressman by asking the question as to whether he should retire or not. The poll is here on their main page about half way down.

Go here and vote AND vote NO!

It looks likely.

Republicans backing a voter referendum to overturn California’s new congressional maps are on the verge of dropping the effort, sources say.

One reason is a lack of enthusiasm among California’s GOP congressional delegation. One of the newest but most-prominent members of that delegation — Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy, R-Bakersfield — reportedly led those arguing that it wasn’t worth fighting the new maps.

At a recent meeting of the National Republican Campaign Committee, several strategists argued that the statewide referendum wasn’t a good use of campaign resources. And some noted that the congressional maps, drawn by a voter-approved independent commission, are more favorable to Republicans than they would have been under a Democrat-controlled gerrymander.

The effort to put the new congressional maps in front of voters was submitted last month and had been cleared for signature gathering, although no committee had been created to raise funds, according to the secretary of state’s office.

There was no formal announcement that the ballot referendum campaign for the congressional districts was abandoned. However, in such cases groups typically elect to cease signature gathering, causing the measure to fail once the deadline is passed. The referendum’s sponsor, Julie Vandermost, and its attorney did not return phone calls seeking comment.

At the recent GOP convention in Los Angeles, there were closed-door discussions about the initiative’s failure to gain traction.

Plain and simple, the supporters of the referendum (whoever they might be i.e. Gallegly, Dreier, Lungren, Miller, Royce, Bilbray) would have to pony up around $2 million or so to qualify the referendum.

Even if they could do so, and nobody has shown the interest, the California Supreme Court is no slam dunk to draw Congressional Districts that are any more favorable to the GOP, especially all of the delegation.

The referendum is a colossal waste of campaign resources. Money that the California Republican Party does NOT have.

So, back over to my Congressman Elton Gallegly who will now decide to either run and run hard in CA-26 or not.

I have known Rep. Elton Gallegly for almost 30 years. While I have not discussed his re-election propsects with him, I do know that he is doing campaign events and recently moved his Congressional office from Westlake Village to Camarillo.

I say Gallegly is running, despite the referendum (which I understand the campaign for which is NOT actively gathering signatures). There is NO groomed successor and Elton is quite aware that there would be a split in the Ventura County GOP, if he retires at this time. He does not want such a split to be his legacy.

Elton is also aware that Democrat Rep. Brad Sherman WILL run in CA-26, if Elton retires, since Sherman has represented some of the Congressional District previously. The GOP would be quite content to have Sherman and Howard Berman face off against each other in a San Fernando Valley centric Congressional District.

So, sorry to California State Senator Tony Strickland and Ventura County Supervisor Linda Parks. If you want CA-26, you will have to beat Elton and his $800K bank roll.

Here is Timm Herdt’s analysis of the race.

Here are the demographics of the new CA-26 Congressional District.

A morning collection of links and comments about my home, California.

Westlake Village man announces plans to run for new 26th Congressional District

David Cruz Thayne, a former professional tennis player from Westlake Village, on Wednesday became the second Democrat to announce plans to run in the newly drawn 26th Congressional District, which covers most of Ventura County.

Thayne, 40, is a tennis coach and the producer of two tennis-themed documentary films. He joins Moorpark City Councilman David Pollock as the only announced candidates in a district that is expected to attract considerable national attention. It is home to no incumbent and the partisan leanings of its voters are such that the candidates in last fall’s governor’s race were separated by only 1 percentage point.

The district includes all of Ventura County except for most of the city of Simi Valley and a small slice of the city of Ventura. The city of Westlake Village is the only area of Los Angeles County in the district.

It is likely the district in which incumbent Rep. Elton Gallegly, R-Simi Valley, will run if he chooses to seek re-election. Although his home is a few blocks outside the district boundary, Gallegly has represented much of the area for the last two decades.

The incumbent congressman has made no announcement about his plans for 2012.

California governor not interested in Prop 13 reforms

Gov. Jerry Brown on Wednesday turned down a challenge from the mayor of Los Angeles to reform Proposition 13, saying he would prefer to focus his attention on bringing financial stability to California.

Brown was responding to comments by Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, who called on the governor and state lawmakers to think big in solving California’s ongoing fiscal problems. The mayor suggested the Prop 13 property tax cap be lifted for businesses and left in place for homeowners.

Prop 13, however, is seen as untouchable by many politicians in the state because it is so popular with the electorate.

During a speech Tuesday before the Sacramento Press Club, Villaraigosa urged the governor to convene a commission on tax reform and estimated that gradually lifting the Prop 13 cap for businesses could raise between $2.1 billion and $8 billion a year money the state could invest in education and lower property taxes for homeowners.

Brown rejected the idea after making a luncheon address at Maddy Institute in Fresno.

“I’m not planning to join (Villaraigosa), but I certainly welcome the debate,” Brown said. “I will focus my attention on ensuring financial stability and making the state more efficient.”

Brown did not offer specifics beyond saying he plans to support a ballot initiative next year for new revenue. He also said jobs would come by generating confidence that California is on stable footing.

One way he might do that is through infrastructure investment.