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share save 120 16 President 2012: If Mitt Romney Loses Michigan   We Need a New Candidate Says Top GOP Senator
Jeb Bush President 2012: If Mitt Romney Loses Michigan   We Need a New Candidate Says Top GOP Senator

Former Gov. Jeb Bush speaks at the Hispanic Leadership Network’s conference, Thursday, Jan. 26, 2012 in Miami

You knew it was going to start.

The GOP establishment is getting antsy about Mitt Romney and if he does manage to lose Michigan – well, he is done.

A prominent Republican senator just told me that if Romney can’t win in Michigan, the Republican Party needs to go back to the drawing board and convince somebody new to get into the race.

“If Romney cannot win Michigan, we need a new candidate,” said the senator, who has not endorsed anyone and requested anonymity.

The senator believes Romney will ultimately win in Michigan but says he will publicly call for the party to find a new candidate if he does not.

“We’d get killed,” the senator said if Romney manages to win the nomination after he failed to win the state in which he grew up.

“He’d be too damaged,” he said.  “If he can’t even win in Michigan, where his family is from, where he grew up.”

What about Rick Santorum?

“He’d lose 35 states,” the senator said, predicting the same fate for Newt Gingrich.

And, who would the new candidate be?

Jeb Bush, said this Senator.

I, frankly, think it will be Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels or Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal – or even Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan.

If the GOP wants to win against President Obama, they had better hope Santorum beats Romney in Michigan.

share save 120 16 President 2012: If Mitt Romney Loses Michigan   We Need a New Candidate Says Top GOP Senator
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share save 120 16 President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Newt Gingrich Poll Lead Collapses
Newt Poll Lead Collapses President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Newt Gingrich Poll Lead Collapses

According to the latest Gallup Poll.

After enjoying 14- to 15-percentage-point leads over Mitt Romney in early December, Newt Gingrich is now statistically tied with Romney in national Republican preferences for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination: 26% for Gingrich vs. 24% for Romney. This follows a steady decline in support for Gingrich in the past 10 days.

The latest findings are from Dec. 13-18 Gallup Daily tracking, based on 1,177 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who are registered to vote. Gallup initiated Daily tracking of the Republican presidential trial heat on Dec. 1, and reports the results in continuous five-day rolling averages.

No single candidate has benefited proportionately more from Gingrich’s 11-point decline — from 37% to 26% — over the past 10 days. Rather, Gallup polling finds slight increases in support for the six remaining major candidates in the race. Also, the percentage of Republicans favoring none of the candidates or who are unsure has risen by three points, from 14% to 17%.

Twenty-four percent of registered Republicans and Republican-leaning independents now favor Romney for the nomination. This is up just slightly from the 22% to 23% level seen for much of the first two weeks of December. Support for Ron Paul is now 11%, up from 8% to 9% earlier in the month — marking the first time his support has been above 10% since mid-September. At that time, a Gallup poll of all Republicans/Republican-leaning independents put his support at 13%.

The GOP Establishment “pile on” against Newt Gingrich has been profound and frequent. Gingrich who has little campaign cash and/or organization to respond to the attacks both in the free media and “on air” has had as meteoric a rise as has been his collapse.  Gingrich has wilted under all of the attacks. Here is the graph:

Gallup Gingrich Collapse President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Newt Gingrich Poll Lead Collapses

It seems the GOP voters are “settling” now for Mitt Romney or are giving other candidates a second look.

I maintain that there is still time for a third candidate to arise from the ash pile of former GOP Poll leaders. Today’s hunch is Jeb Bush who, today, has a piece in the Wall Street Journal.

share save 120 16 President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Newt Gingrich Poll Lead Collapses
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share save 120 16 President 2012 Iowa GOP Poll Watch: Romney 21% Cain 15% Palin 15% Gingrich 12%

According to the latest PPP Poll.

Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

  • Newt Gingrich – 39% Vs. 41%
  • Sarah Palin – 59% Vs. 31%
  • Mitt Romney – 51% Vs. 34%
  • Tim Pawlenty – 48% Vs. 18%
  • Herman Cain – 38% Vs. 24% Vs Not Sure = 38%
  • Michele Bachmann – 53% Vs. 16%
  • Jeb Bush – 51% Vs. 20%
  • Ron Paul – 42% Vs. 29%
  • Rick Santorum – 29% Vs. 18% Vs. Not Sure = 53%
  • Rudy Giuliani – 49% Vs. 31%
  • Donald Trump – 28% vs. 56%
  • Jon Huntsman – 7% Vs. 23% Vs. Not Sure = 70%
  • Chris Christie – 42% Vs. 12% Vs. Not Sure = 46%
  • Rick Perry – 21% Vs. 16% Vs. Not Sure = 63%
  • Paul Ryan – 42% Vs. 14% Vs. Not Sure = 45%

GOP Primary Caucus Head to Head:

Given the choices of Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney, who would you most like to see as
the Republican candidate for President next year?

  • Romney – 21%
  • Palin – 15%
  • Cain – 15%
  • Gingrich -12%
  • Pawlenty – 10%
  • Ron Paul – 8%
  • Jon Huntsman – 0%

If Sarah Palin does not run then?

  • Romney – 26%
  • Cain – 16%
  • Gingrich – 15%
  • Bachmann – 14%
  • Pawlenty – 10%
  • Paul – 11%
  • Huntsman – 1%

If the Republican nomination came down to Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?

  • Romney – 48% Vs. Palin – 41% Vs. Not Sure = 11%

If the Republican nomination came down to Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty, who would you vote for?

  • Romney – 41% Vs. Pawlenty – 41% Vs. Not Sure = 18%

If the Republican nomination came down to Mitt Romney and Herman Cain, who would you vote for?

  • Romney – 48% Vs. Cain – 34% Vs. Not Sure = 19%

If the Republican nomination came down to Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?

Romney – 46% Vs. Bachmann – 38% Vs. Not Sure = 16%

Mitt Romney is leading in Iowa ever since Mike Huckabee exited the race, but he is being challenged by a surging Herman Cain. Iowa will be the first primary state for the 2012 Presidential nominee and is a caucus state.

Cain and Palin have been the biggest beneficiaries in Iowa of Huckabee and Trump’s decisions not to run. Cain is at 15% now despite not even having been included on our last poll. Palin’s gained 7 points in the six weeks since our last poll compared to 5 point gains for Romney, Pawlenty, and Bachmann, a 3 point gain for Gingrich, and a 2 point bump for Paul.

Romney’s leading in Iowa based on his strength with centrist and center right Republican voters. With moderates he’s at 34% to 16% for Palin, 13% for Paul, and 11% for Gingrich. With ‘somewhat conservative’ voters he’s at 24% to 15% for Pawlenty, 13% for Palin, and 12% for Gingrich and Cain. His strength with those two groups outweighs his continuing weakness with the furthest right group of voters in the state, which constitute the largest segment of the Republican electorate at 41%. With those ‘very conservative’ folks Romney can muster only a fourth place finish at 13%. Cain and Palin tie for the lead with that group of voters at 19% followed by Bachmann at 15%.

I would think one would have to say that while Mitt Romney is leading, conservative candidates Cain, Palin and Bachmann are splitting votes. If Iowa conservatives were to consolidate on one candidate, then Romney is in trouble. Surprisingly, Tim Pawlenty, a moderate-conservative does the best head to head with Romney though.

Here is a summary of the favorable vs unfavorable data:

iowa ppp poll President 2012 Iowa GOP Poll Watch: Romney 21% Cain 15% Palin 15% Gingrich 12%

So, what does this all mean?

There is definitely room for the entry of a “new” candidate like Paul Ryan, Chris Christie or Jeb Bush. The $1 million question is whether Sarah Palin runs and if she does, whether the GOP establishment then run someone else against her, ie. Ryan,Christie or Bush?

Tim Pawlenty is not catching fire and Jon Huntsman fledgling campaign is on life support – at least in Iowa.

The entire poll is here.

share save 120 16 President 2012 Iowa GOP Poll Watch: Romney 21% Cain 15% Palin 15% Gingrich 12%
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share save 120 16 President 2012: Jeb Bush is Still a NO

He can read the polls too.

Nothing like a busted Amtrak train to bring me face-to-face with the one man Republicans would love — and I mean LOVE — to get into the 2012 race for the Republican presidential nomination. Former governor Jeb Bush (R-Fla.) and his wife Columba were just a few rows behind me. So, of course, I couldn’t resist asking him a question he has heard myriad times. “Is there any possible way your party could convince you to run for president,” I asked? “I don’t think so,” he said. “A lot of people are asking me that, and it’s flattering. But the Magic Eight Ball says, ‘Outlook not so good.’ ”

This comes mere hours before former House speaker Newt Gingrich alerts the world via Twitter, Facebook and Fox News that he will seek the 2012 Republican nomination for president. According to Gallup, he will enter the race with high name recognition and low positive intensity. I’d love to say there’s nowhere to go but up for him, but that wouldn’t be true.

My bet is that Mitch Daniels and/or Chris Christie will jump in very soon.

After Mitt Romney’s disastrous blow up on RpomneyCare today, he is out and Mike Huckabee is still not showing any effort.

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share save 120 16 President 2012 Florida Poll Watch Angst: Jeb Bush 57% Vs. Barack Obama 38%
jeb2bbush2bbarack2bobam President 2012 Florida Poll Watch Angst: Jeb Bush 57% Vs. Barack Obama 38%

President Obama shakes hands with former Florida Governor Jeb Bush

According to the latest Viewpoint Florida Poll.
If the 2012 Presidential election were held today, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush would defeat President Barack Obama in the Sunshine State by nearly 20 points.

Governor Bush’s 57%-38% lead over Obama can be attributed to several interesting figures found in the crosstabs of our statewide survey of likely voters in Florida. For example, Bush enjoys a 66%-31% lead over President Obama among male voters, but only leads Obama 50%-44% among women.

Governor Bush leads President Obama among all age groups except voters aged 18-34, where Obama hangs on to a slim 48%-45% lead. Bush holds a 56%-40% lead with voters over 65, and crushes Obama 66%-32% with voters between 35 and 49 years old.

26% of Democrats stated they would vote for the younger brother of former President George W. Bush over Barack Obama if the Presidential election were held today. Bush has almost unanimous support from his base with 89% of Republicans supporting him, while Obama gets just 71% support from members of his own party. Governor Bush also leads President Obama 46%-40% among independent voters.

Finally, our regional crosstabs show Governor Bush dominating the President in Jacksonville and Florida’s Panhandle. 71% of respondents in that region preferred Governor Bush, to just 27% who said they would pull the lever for President Obama. Bush earns 60% support in Orlando and the Space Coast, beating Obama in that swing region by 27 points. Bush even bests Obama in South Florida, where he holds a narrow 48%-46% lead.

Except Jeb is not running…..

But, can Bush help a candidate, perhaps like Mitch Daniels?

share save 120 16 President 2012 Florida Poll Watch Angst: Jeb Bush 57% Vs. Barack Obama 38%
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