• Pinboard Links

    Flap’s Links and Comments for July 13th on 10:43

    July 13, 2011 /

    These are my links for July 13th from 10:43 to 10:47:

    • Republicans Fail to Pick up Democratic Seat in 200th Consecutive California U.S. House Race – The California GOP has not picked up a Democratic held U.S. House seat in general or special elections since 1998

      Democrat Janice Hahn's special election victory over Craig Huey in California's 36th Congressional District Tuesday evening continues a more than decade long string of futility on the part of California Republicans in their attempt to pick up a Democratic held U.S. House seat.

      A Smart Politics historical review of California election returns finds that Democrats have now successfully held 200 consecutive seats in general and special elections conducted after the Election of 1998.

      Although Hahn was criticized by some for running a traditional campaign in a non-traditional election year and matchup, she was able to notch a 9.1-point victory over the conservative businessman who surprised many by eking out a second place finish in May in the heavily Democratic district.

      The 36th CD has been vacant since late February when nine-term Democrat Jane Harman resigned to head the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.

      Democrats have now held their California U.S. House seats in 192 consecutive general election races over the last the last six cycles plus eight seats in special election races they have had to defend since 1999.

      But while the Republicans are currently suffering through a 0-200 stretch in pick up attempts, Democrats have won seven GOP-held seats in the Golden State out of 125 general and special election matchups during this 13-year period, or a 6 percent pick-up rate.

      Democrats won five Republican seats in 2000 (CA-15, 27, 31, 36, and 49), one in 2002 (CA-39) and one in 2006 (CA-11).

      Californians are now making up a larger and larger percentage of the Democratic caucus in Congress – currently resting at 18 percent (34 of 193 members), which marks the largest percentage in the history of the state.

      ======

      California is deeply blue like New York and Massachusetts.

    • President 2012: Tim Pawlenty says there’s no scientific conclusion that being gay is genetic – Pawlenty said "there's no scientific conclusion that (being gay) is genetic." On that specific question, we found broad agreement that Pawlenty was correct. Scientists told us that genetics may play a role in determining sexual orientation, but the current evidence suggests that it’s not the dominant factor and may ultimately be shown to play just a modest role.

      But a modest role is still different from no role. And we also think that viewers of the interview might be led to believe that because homosexuality is not primarily caused by genes, there’s no biological cause. In reality, most scientists do believe that sexual orientation is caused by biology, rather than by choice. On balance, we rate Pawlenty’s statement Mostly True.

  • Pinboard Links

    Flap’s Links and Comments for July 13th on 10:43

    July 13, 2011 /

    These are my links for July 13th from 10:43 to 10:47:

    • Republicans Fail to Pick up Democratic Seat in 200th Consecutive California U.S. House Race – The California GOP has not picked up a Democratic held U.S. House seat in general or special elections since 1998

      Democrat Janice Hahn's special election victory over Craig Huey in California's 36th Congressional District Tuesday evening continues a more than decade long string of futility on the part of California Republicans in their attempt to pick up a Democratic held U.S. House seat.

      A Smart Politics historical review of California election returns finds that Democrats have now successfully held 200 consecutive seats in general and special elections conducted after the Election of 1998.

      Although Hahn was criticized by some for running a traditional campaign in a non-traditional election year and matchup, she was able to notch a 9.1-point victory over the conservative businessman who surprised many by eking out a second place finish in May in the heavily Democratic district.

      The 36th CD has been vacant since late February when nine-term Democrat Jane Harman resigned to head the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.

      Democrats have now held their California U.S. House seats in 192 consecutive general election races over the last the last six cycles plus eight seats in special election races they have had to defend since 1999.

      But while the Republicans are currently suffering through a 0-200 stretch in pick up attempts, Democrats have won seven GOP-held seats in the Golden State out of 125 general and special election matchups during this 13-year period, or a 6 percent pick-up rate.

      Democrats won five Republican seats in 2000 (CA-15, 27, 31, 36, and 49), one in 2002 (CA-39) and one in 2006 (CA-11).

      Californians are now making up a larger and larger percentage of the Democratic caucus in Congress – currently resting at 18 percent (34 of 193 members), which marks the largest percentage in the history of the state.

      ======

      California is deeply blue like New York and Massachusetts.

    • President 2012: Tim Pawlenty says there’s no scientific conclusion that being gay is genetic – Pawlenty said "there's no scientific conclusion that (being gay) is genetic." On that specific question, we found broad agreement that Pawlenty was correct. Scientists told us that genetics may play a role in determining sexual orientation, but the current evidence suggests that it’s not the dominant factor and may ultimately be shown to play just a modest role.

      But a modest role is still different from no role. And we also think that viewers of the interview might be led to believe that because homosexuality is not primarily caused by genes, there’s no biological cause. In reality, most scientists do believe that sexual orientation is caused by biology, rather than by choice. On balance, we rate Pawlenty’s statement Mostly True.

  • Barack Obama,  Day By Day,  Mitch McConnell

    Day By Day July 13, 2011 – Not Exactly Peanuts

    July 13, 2011 /


    Day By Day by Chris Muir

    Senator McConnell’s plan for raising the national debt ceiling is ill-advised and questionably unconstitutional. The explosion of the debt is Obama’s problem and the GOP should make him own it. Instead the Republicans are allowing the President the opportunity to demagogue the issue and threaten cutting off senior citizen checks.

    You will not obtain substantial spending reform on entitlements until after the 2012 elections anyway and you win a majority of the Senate and have a new President.

    Republican leaders should quickly approve some bipartisan deal to raise the limit before the economy tanks further and the Democrats go to the airwaves blaming the GOP. This poor economy and high unemployment are Obama’s and Pelosi’s.

    Make them own it and worry about major debt reform during the upcoming 2012 campaigns.

    Previous:

    The Day By Day Archive

  • Michele Bachmann,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012,  Rick Perry,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Romney 25% Bachmann 14% Palin 12% Perry 10%

    July 13, 2011 /

    Republican presidential candidate, Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., speaks with Rep. Steve King, R-Iowa., during a news conference on Capitol Hill in Washington, Wednesday, July 13, 2011

    According to the latest Quinnipiac University Poll.

    A new national poll shows Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann surging into second place behind longtime front-runner Mitt Romney in the Republican presidential race.

    Romney leads Bachmann, 25 percent to 14 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday. Sarah Palin places third with 12 percent and Texas Gov. Rick Perry garners 10 percent support. Romney’s support remained unchanged since the last Quinnipiac poll taken a month ago, while Bachmann picked up eight percentage points. With Bachmann moving up, Palin lost three points.

    The poll also suggests that Romney and Bachmann have the most to gain if Perry or Palin stays out of the race. In Perry’s absence, Romney leads Bachmann by 28 percent to 16 percent and Palin places third with 13 percent. In a Palin-less race, Romney continues to lead with 28 percent support, followed by Bachmann with 17 percent and Perry at 10 percent.

    Romney comes the closest to President Obama in a head-to-head matchup, trailing the president, 47 percent to 41 percent. This margin has not changed since the last Quinnipiac poll. Though he trails overall, Romney edges Obama among independents, 42 percent to 40 percent.

    The president leads the other top candidates with at least 50 percent support, topping Bachmann, 50-38; Palin, 53-34; and Perry, 50-37. He tops these candidates among independents as well.

    So, the political world waits for Sarah Palin and/or Rick Perry to make their move. aAnd, don’t forget Rudy Giuliani who could win many Northeastern GOP states and create a “brokered” convention scenario.

    The entire poll is here.

  • Craig Huey,  Janice Hahn

    CA-36: The Michael Barone Analysis of the Race Between Janice Hahn and Craig Huey

    July 13, 2011 /

    Washington political punidt Michael Barone is partially correct in his analysis of the 9 or 10 point loss of Republican Craig Huey to Democrat Janice Hahn yesterday.

    The Los Angeles County elections director has tweeted that Democrat Janice Hahn beat Republican Craig Huey in yesterday’s California 36th congressional district special election by a 55%-45% margin. This is in a district that Barack Obama carried 64%-34% in 2008. In other words, the Democrat ran 9% behind Obama and the Republican ran 11% ahead of John McCain. (…)

    California 36, in contrast, is an affluent area along the Los Angeles County beachfront, heavily white (look at this terrific New York Times interactive graphic showing the predominant racial group: the coast is a white bastion penned in by black and Hispanic interior areas in Los Angeles County). Historically Republican, primarily because of economic issues, it trended heavily toward Democrats in the 1990s. Republican nominee Craig Huey was spectacularly out of line with the district on cultural issues, but managed to get 45% of the vote anyway. I take this result as evidence of significant erosion in Obama/Democratic support in affluent white areas that are part of large metropolitan areas—a key part of the Democratic national coalition since 1996. (…)

    CA-36 is a very gerrymandered Democratic district from a decade old census. The race was uphill for Craig Huey from the start and Huey ran a very good campaign.

    The fact is that the Democrats and President Obama are less popular than in 2006 and 2008, but this will make little difference in California politics which is solidly blue Democratic. Republican voters are concentrated in certain areas of California and are overwhelmed by racially based demographic groups that traditionally vote Democratic no matter what. Now whether they turn out is another matter but the numbers are so great that winning is relatively easy for the Democrats.

    Any extrapolation of this race to the national mood is probably folly – no matter who is doing the spinning.

  • Pinboard Links

    Flap’s Links and Comments for July 13th on 08:26

    July 13, 2011 /

    These are my links for July 13th from 08:26 to 08:32:

    • Can President Obama keep paying Social Security benefits even if the debt ceiling is reached? – The president obviously does not want to show all of his cards in this high-stakes game of poker. Raising the specter of not issuing Social Security checks is designed to raise pressure on Republicans, but could also cause angst among the elderly.

      At this point the answer is unclear but we become suspicious when politicians begin to use “may,” rather than speak in definitive sentences. If Treasury has the ability to keep paying Social Security benefits, even if the debt limit is reached, the Obama administration should make that clear. The Treasury Department’s new statement begins to add some clarity. We will keep watching how the president speaks about this issue.

      ========

      Answer is perhaps….

      Read it all

    • The McConnell Plan’s Pitfalls – Shortly after Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell unveiled his “contingency” plan for a debt limit increase, the Associated Press bulletin read: “GOP Leader McConnell proposes giving Obama new power for automatic debt limit increase.”

      It’s surely not the headline McConnell wanted, but unlike much of the media coverage of the debt fight, it’s accurate. And that’s a problem.

      It is not, however, the main problem with the McConnell plan. Far worse, in my view, is that the plan isolates House Republicans, it undercuts their (tentative) plan to offer an aggressive debt limit proposal of their own, it turns their principled intransigence from a possible strength to a certain liability, and it virtually ensures that, in the event of default, Republicans – not the White House – will be blamed.

      McConnell’s plan gives the president the ability to raise the debt ceiling through 2012, in three separate increments, by requiring Obama to propose spending cuts greater than each request. Its main virtue is that these hikes would have to pass largely with Democratic support – something that McConnell and others believe will redound to Republicans’ benefit heading into the 2012 election cycle. And, the theory goes, if President Obama offers phony spending cuts, as he almost certain to do, his posturing as the “adult in the room” on entitlements and spending will be exposed as unserious.

      But there’s the catch, too: the spending cuts do not have to be real or even implemented in order for the president to get his debt ceiling increases. McConnell acknowledged this at the press conference to announce the plan Tuesday afternoon. ABC’s Jonathan Karl asked: “Does it guarantee you’ll get your spending cuts or not?” McConnell responded: “No, it doesn’t.”

      ======

      Read it all

      A different perspective than the Wall Street Journal

    • Debt-Limit Harakiri or Why McConnell’s Plan is Not So Bad – The tea party/talk-radio expectations for what Republicans can accomplish over the debt-limit showdown have always been unrealistic. As former Senator Phil Gramm once told us, never take a hostage you're not prepared to shoot. Republicans aren't prepared to stop a debt-limit increase because the political costs are unbearable. Republicans might have played this game better, but the truth is that Mr. Obama has more cards to play.

      The entitlement state can't be reformed by one house of Congress in one year against a determined President and Senate held by the other party. It requires more than one election. The Obama Democrats have staged a spending blowout to 24% of GDP and rising, and now they want to find a way to finance it to make it permanent. Those are the real stakes of 2012.

      Even if Mr. Obama gets his debt-limit increase without any spending cuts, he will pay a price for the privilege. He'll have reinforced his well-earned reputation as a spender with no modern peer. He'll own the record deficits and fast-rising debt. And he'll own the U.S. credit-rating downgrade to AA if Standard & Poor's so decides.

      We'd far prefer a bipartisan deal to cut spending and reform entitlements without a tax increase. But if Mr. Obama won't go along, there's no reason Republicans should help him dodge the political consequences by committing debt-limit harakiri.

      ======

      Read it all…..

      An interesting perspective…..

  • American Debt Linit,  American Economy,  Polling

    Poll Watch: 53 Per Cent Want Their Representative in Congress to Vote Against Raising Debt Ceiling

    July 13, 2011 /

    According to the latest Gallup Poll.

    Echoing resistance to raising the nation’s debt ceiling among the public at large, 53% of Americans who say they are following the issue very closely in the news want their member of Congress to vote against raising the debt limit, while 37% urge a vote in favor.

    This 16-percentage-point margin against raising the debt limit among the most attentive Americans is similar to the 20-point margin among those following the matter somewhat closely, 48% vs. 28%. Those not following the issue closely are also more likely to want their member of Congress to vote against raising the debt limit than for it; however, the majority, 59%, have no opinion.

    Similarly, the Americans most attentive to the debt ceiling issue are no more anxious about the potential negative economic fallout should the debt ceiling not be raised than are those paying less attention to the issue. The majority of those following the issue very closely say they are more worried that the government would raise the debt ceiling without plans for major cuts in future spending than they are that not raising the debt ceiling would result in a major economic crisis.

    The United States should honor its financial obligations but there needs to be dramatic reform, otherwise the POLS will just spend more money (which we don’t have) to get re-elected. If the President and Congress cannot agree on a long term deal then they should pass a short term one and revisit the issue in six months.

    And, President Obama should refrain from trying to scare senior citizens. This is demagoguery at its worse and most seniors understand that it is all Obama bluster in order to obtain votes for his re-election effort.

    Americans’ general opposition to raising the nation’s debt ceiling limit — at least in the abstract — does not primarily reflect low public awareness of the president’s warnings about the perils of not raising it. In fact, the majority of Americans who say they are following the issue very closely oppose it, and are more concerned about the impact that raising the debt limit would have on future U.S. deficit spending than the possibility of an economic crisis if it is not raised.

    In trying to win more public support for raising the debt ceiling, President Obama appealed to seniors Tuesday, warning that failure to do so could put a freeze on Social Security checks as soon as Aug. 3. Obama’s approval rating among seniors is currently at 39%, the lowest of any age group. However, seniors are also the age group paying closest attention to the deficit issue and might be persuaded to rethink their position on the debt ceiling (currently 26% are in favor of raising it and 48% opposed) if they believe their retirement income is at risk.

  • Pinboard Links

    Flap’s Links and Comments for July 12th through July 13th

    July 13, 2011 /

    These are my links for July 12th through July 13th:

  • California,  California Economy,  Gavin Newsom

    Shocker: California Businesses Voting With their Feet and Leaving the State

    July 13, 2011 /
    The $5 Million a Year San Francisco Tax Break

    Twitter notwithstanding, California for many years has not been business friendly and now the businesses are giving up and simply either leaving or expanding in other states.

    Buffeted by high taxes, strict regulations and uncertain state budgets, a growing number of California companies are seeking friendlier business environments outside of the Golden State.

    And governors around the country, smelling blood in the water, have stepped up their courtship of California companies. Officials in states like Florida, Texas, Arizona and Utah are telling California firms how business-friendly they are in comparison.

    Companies are “disinvesting” in California at a rate five times greater than just two years ago, said Joseph Vranich, a business relocation expert based in Irvine. This includes leaving altogether, establishing divisions elsewhere or opting not to set up shop in California.

    “There is a feeling that the state is not stable,” Vranich said. “Sacramento can’t get its act together…and that includes the governor, legislators and regulatory agencies that are running wild.”

    The state has been ranked by Chief Executive magazine as the worst place to do business for seven years.

    “California, once a business friendly state, continues to conduct a war on its own economy,” the magazine wrote.

    That is about to change, at least if Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom has anything to say about it. Newsom is developing a plan to address the state’s economic Achilles heels, and build on its strengths. It will be unveiled at the end of July.

    “California has got to get its act together when it comes to economic development and job creation,” he said.

    While not all companies investing elsewhere are doing so for economic reasons, some are shopping around for lower costs, lighter regulations, stable leadership and government assistance and incentives.

    The most popular places to go? Texas, Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, Utah, Virginia and North Carolina, said Vranich. All rank in the Top 13 places to do business, according to Chief Executive.

    California has great weather and ample natural resources, but the far left Democratic nature of its politics is stifling to business.Unemployment is high and entitlement costs associated with this and rampant illegal immigration are a definite drag to business development.

    I do not foresee the California business climate improving anytime soon. No matter what former Democratic Mayor of San Francisco Gavin Newsom says or creates with Nanny State commissions, businesses are voting wit their feet and leaving.

    California’s economy will stagnate much like Michigan’s with little or no growth and for the forseeable future.

  • Craig Huey,  Janice Hahn

    CA-36: Janice Hahn Wins Special Election Over Craig Huey

    July 13, 2011 /

    California’s new Representative Janice Hahn and GOP Congressional Nominee and businessman Craig Huey

    Janice Hahn cruises to an easy 9 point victory over Craig Huey in yesterday’s California special congressional election.

    Democrat Janice Hahn defeated Republican Craig Huey in a bitterly contested Southern California special election marked by stinging attacks from both sides.

    Hahn finished with a healthy 54.56 percent of the vote to Huey’s 45.44 percent in Tuesday’s vote. The good news came early for Hahn’s camp soon after polls closed when the initial absentee returns showed the Los Angeles councilwoman with an 8-point advantage. Huey’s campaign needed a stronger showing in the early vote to offset the 18-point Democratic registration advantage in the beach town district.

    Hahn emerged with a win despite an aggressive campaign by Huey, a wealthy tea partier who poured $883,000 of his own money into the effort after a surprise second-place primary finish vaulted him into the runoff.

    In the end, the overwhelming Democratic Party registration was just too much to overtake in this ten-year old Democratic gerrymandered district.

    Now, all eyes will be on the California Citizen’s Redistricting Commission as to how they will carve up CA-36 and how many GOP voters will be placed within the area where Craig Huey lives on the Palos Verdes Peninsula/Rolling Hills area.

    Or, whether a more friendly race for the California Assembly might be in play for Craig.

    Here are the results: