Late yesterday, Gallup came out with new numbers on the generic ballot question—which party’s candidates would you vote for in the election for House of Representatives? Among registered voters Gallup shows Republicans ahead by 46%-42%, about as good a score as Republicans have ever had (and about as bad a score as Democrats have ever had) since Gallup started asking the question in 1942.

However, Gallup also shows the results for two different turnout models. Under its “high turnout model” Republicans lead 53%-40%. Under its “low turnout model” Republicans lead 56%-38%.

These two numbers, if translated into popular votes in the 435 congressional districts, suggest huge gains for Republicans and a Republican House majority the likes of which we have not seen since the election cycles of 1946 or even 1928. For months, people have been asking me if this year looks like ’94. My response is that the poll numbers suggest it looks like 1994, when Republicans gained 52 seats in a House of 435 seats. Or perhaps somewhat better for Republicans and worse for Democrats. The Gallup high turnout and low turnout numbers suggest it looks like 1894, when Republicans gained more than 100 seats in a House of approximately 350 seats.

No matter the Democratic Party spin, the basic fundamentals are there for a massive pick up of seats for the Republicans.

American voters are unhappy with Obama, the Congress and the direction of the country. They will vote angry on November 2nd and throw out a goodly number of Democrat incumbents from the Congress.

President Barack Obama’s efforts this week to stir young voters to turn out in November on behalf of his party’s candidates come as Gallup finds support among this group — so important to the Democrats’ success in 2008 — improving. Gallup’s September polling suggests that young voters remain in the Democrats’ corner, and show increased support at a time when seniors have shifted more to the Republicans. The key question is whether young adults will vote in big enough numbers to offset the impact of the senior vote. The most recent indications on this from Gallup polling are not promising for the Democrats.

Hispanics present a different problem for the president’s party. While they voted strongly for Obama in 2008 and were supposed to be one of the building blocks of Democratic victory in 2010, Gallup’s recent polling suggests their support for Democratic congressional candidates is slipping. This is in line with Hispanics’ dwindling approval of Obama as president, with the initial decline seen in May possibly linked to the Democrats’ failure to pass comprehensive immigration reform.

The fact is the “youth” vote will NOT turn out for the November 2nd elections like they did in the Presidential election year of 2008. There is not a young “COOL” candidate like Barack Obama running. They will stay home while “Senior” voters who are scared to death of ObamaCare and the cuts to Medicare will – and vote the GOP ticket.

Hispanics feel betrayed by Obama. They mistrusted him initially (culturally they do anyway), supported Hillary Clinton, but resigned themselves to support Obama because they just could not vote for the old white guy, John McCain. There have been diminishing expectations for them without an immigration deal and they are weary about becoming another taken for granted minority voting group for the Democrats like African Americans and Jews. Hispanics may very well be ambivalent to this election except in California where Jerry Brown and the SEIU are race baiting with Nicky the $23/hr illegal alien maid for Meg Whitman.

Two months before this year’s midterm congressional elections, Gallup finds 54% of Republicans, compared with 30% of Democrats, already saying they have given “quite a lot of” or “some” thought to the contests.

The large party gap in “thought” suggests the typical Republican turnout advantage could be larger than usual this year if that gap persists until Election Day. Attention normally spikes as elections approach, and this is likely to occur among Democrats. However, it is unclear whether the Republicans have reached the limit for how much attention they will pay to a midterm election, or whether their attention will rise to perhaps a historic level by November. How this plays out will determine Democrats’ ability to catch up to Republicans on this measure before Election Day, and will in turn determine the size of the Republican turnout advantage.

My observation for California is an unmotivated/demoralized Democratic Party electorate with the GOP working hard at GOTV for the independent vote – which means Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman win.