• Claire McCaskill,  Polling,  Sarah Steelman,  Todd Akin

    MO-Sen: McCaskill 43% Vs. Steelman 42%, McCaskill 45% Vs. Akin 43%

    According to the latest PPP Poll.

    Claire McCaskill’s approval rating has slipped a hair since PPP last polled Missouri in May, but she retains similarly slim leads over her two most likely opponents for a second Senate term, and both are still pretty unknown to voters.

    43% approve of McCaskill’s work in Washington, down from 46% four months ago. The same 47% disapprove. Among the 87 senators on which PPP has polled, only one of the 23 Democrats on the ballot next year has a worse standing—Nebraska’s Ben Nelson.

    But for now at least, McCaskill leads three Republicans running to replace her. She tops former State Treasurer Sarah Steelman, 43-42, down from 45-42 in the previous poll. McCaskill also edges Rep. Todd Akin, 45-43, versus 46-45 in May. And she leads businessman John Brunner, 46-37, up from 47-41.

    McCaskill benefits from the anonymity of these Republicans vying for the nomination. Three-quarters have no opinion of Brunner, and over half are not familiar with the other two. None of them is seen positively by voters either. Steelman is best off, with 23% seeing her favorably and 25% unfavorably, followed by Akin’s 18-26 and Brunner’s 7-19.

    Senator Claire McCaskill is in trouble. American Crossroads (Karl Rove’s Super PAC) is already hitting her hard with ads and a website.

    How about this billboard:

    The Republican Party should pick up this seat in 2012.

  • Claire McCaskill,  Ed Martin,  Sarah Steelman,  Todd Akin,  U.S. Senate 2012

    Mo-Sen Poll Watch: Claire McCaskill 46% Vs. Todd Akin 45%

    According to the latest PPP Poll.

    Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:

    • Senator Claire McCaskill – 46% Vs. 47%

    Approval Vs. Disapproval Vs. Not sure:

    • Todd Akin – 18% Vs. 21% Vs. 61%
    • John Brunner – 8% Vs. 19% Vs. 73%
    • Blaine Luetkemeye – 14% Vs. 22% Vs. 64%
    • Ed Martin – 11% Vs. 20% Vs. 70%
    • Sarah Steelman – 26% Vs. 22% Vs. 52%

    General election Head to Head:

    • McCaskill – 46% Vs. Akin – 45%
    • McCaskill – 47% Vs. Brunner – 41%
    • McCaskill – 45% Vs. Luetkemeye – 42%
    • McCaskill – 46% Vs. Martin – 39%
    • McCaskill – 45% Vs. Steelman – 42%

    Missouri Senator Clair McCaskill is vulnerable in 2012 and the GOP is counting on picking up her seat. The latest PPP Poll does nothing to give her campaign any optimism.

    These margins don’t exactly look comfortable for McCaskill and a look inside the numbers suggests they’re likely to get worse. There are a good deal more undecided Republicans than Democrats in all of these match ups- 5% more undecided GOP voters against Steelman, 6% more against Akin, 10% more against Luetkemeyer, 11% more against Brunner, and 12% more against Martin. If those folks end up coming ‘home’ you’re looking at each of the Republican picking up another 2-4 points on the margin.

    Why are there so many more Republican undecideds? The crop of GOP candidates continues to be mostly unknown to voters in the state. None of them reaches 50% name recognition. Steelman is the best known with 48% of voters having an opinion about her, 26% positive and 22% negative. She’s followed by 39% who know Akin (18/21), 36% who know Luetkemeyer (14/22), 31% who know Martin (11/20), and 27% who know Brunner (8/19).

    The state of this race remains the same- McCaskill is one of the most vulnerable incumbents up for reelection next year. But the bad news cycles she endured over the last few months seemed like they had the potential to shift this race to one where she was favored to lose. In that sense the continued toss up status of the contest is good news for her.

    Good news for McCaskill?

    I suppopse she could be behind but with her airplane woes and the lack of GOP hit ads means that worst is yet to come.

    This race will NOT be a toss-up but a GOP gain.

  • Ann Wagner,  Claire McCaskill,  Ed Martin,  Sarah Steelman,  Todd Akin,  U.S. Senate 2012

    MO-Sen GOP Poll Watch: Steelman 31% Akin 24% Martin 9% Wagner 2%

    Sen. Claire McCaskill (top), D-Mo., faces challenges from Republicans (bottom, from left) Ann Wagner, Ed Martin and Sarah Steelman

    According to the lastest PPP Poll.

    Sarah Steelman is the early top choice of Missouri Republicans to be their candidate for the Senate next year, although with most of the candidates including herself largely unknown at this point there is plenty of time for that to change.

    The Poll:

    • Sarah Steelman – 31%
    • Todd Akin – 24%
    • Ed Martin – 9%
    • Ann Wagner – 2%

    Without GOP Rep. Todd Akin in the race:

    • Sarah Steelman – 37%
    • Todd Martin – 18%
    • Ann Wagner – 11%

    But, most Missouri voters don’t really know about these candidates, so take these numbers with a grain of salt.

    We’re not seeing any big ideological fissures yet in these numbers. Steelman leads Akin by 14 points with moderates but she also has a 13 point advantage with those voters describing themselves as ‘very conservative.’ Her lead is narrower with ‘somewhat conservative’ voters who give her only a one point edge on Akin. It’s a similar story when Akin’s out- then Steelman’s up 26 points on Martin with the ‘very conservative’ wing and 24 points with the moderates, but only 9 points with folks who call themselves ‘somewhat conservative.’ For whatever reason she’s doing better with moderates and the far right than the center right.

    It’s too early to make a whole lot of these numbers though given that 56% of voters don’t know enough about Steelman to have formed an opinion and that just rises to 61% for Akin, 75% for Martin, and 81% for Wagner.

    The full poll is here (PDF).

  • Ann Wagner,  Claire McCaskill,  Polling,  Sarah Steelman,  U.S. Senate 2012

    MO-Sen Poll Watch: McCaskill 45% Vs. Steelman 42%

    Looks like a possible GOP pick-up according to the latest PPP poll.

    Job Approval Vs. Disapproval

    • Senator McCaskill 46% Vs. 45%

    Favorable Vs. Unfavorable

    • Todd Akin 20% Vs. 24%
    • Ed Martin 12% Vs. 22%
    • Sarah Steelman 22% Vs. 22%
    • Ann Wagner 8% Vs. 18%

    Heads Up:

    • McCaskill 45% Vs Akin 44%
    • McCaskill 46% Vs. Martin 40%
    • McCaskill 45% Vs. Steelman 42%
    • McCaskill 45% Vs Wagner 36%

    Missouri is the “Show Me” state with which the GOP wishes to recapture the U.S Senate majority. And, it would certainly be sweet to avenge Claire McCaskill’s bruising win six years ago when she shamelessly used Michael J Fox shaking and baking on “stem cell” televison commercials. Remember?

    Democrat Senator Claire McCaskill is certainly vulnerable and is below the magical 50% in job approval.

    PPP’s 2nd poll on the 2012 US Senate race in Missouri finds pretty much the same thing as the first one. Voters are closely divided on Claire McCaskill’s job performance and she polls in the mid-40s against all of her prospective Republican opponents. She does have small leads over them that are largely attributable to their lack of name recognition.

    46% of Missouri voters approve of the job McCaskill is doing to 45% who disapprove. Her reviews are almost completely polarized along party lines with 85% of Democrats happy with the job she’s doing while 80% of Republicans give her poor marks. The thing of greatest concern for McCaskill should be where she stands with independents- just 36% think she’s doing a good job with 51% dissenting.

    Unless the Republicans nominate a nut job as their candidate (which they won’t), this will be a close race leaning toward a GOP pick up.

    The entire poll is here.