• Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012 Nevada Poll Watch: Obama Surges to an 8 Point Lead

    May 2, 2012 /

    According to the latest Rasmussen Poll.

    President Obama continues to lead Mitt Romney in a head-to-head matchup in Nevada.

    A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state finds Obama earning 52% support, while Romney picks up 44% of the vote.  Two percent (2%) prefers some other candidate, and another two percent (2%) are undecided.

    This Nevada survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on April 30, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

    Perhaps the economy is better in Nevada. But, in any case, Mitt Romney had better choose his Vice Presidential running mate with Nevada in mind.

    A key battleground state, Romney needs to win in Nevada.

  • Barack Obama,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012: State of the Race for the Presidency: April 25, 2012

    April 25, 2012 /

    From Real Clear Politics

    With Mitt Romney locking up the Republican nomination last night, it is time to look at the general election face off between him and President Obama. The Real Clear Politics poll average has Obama up by 4.1 points.

    Now, let’s look at the Electoral College vote averages (Real Clear Politics):

    Here we have the state of the race: President Obama is up by a few points and there are a number of key battleground states which will determine who wins in November.

    Here is my prediction:

    This map is from the interactive site, 270towin.com

    Let the campaigns begin…..

  • Barack Obama,  Marco Rubio,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012,  Susana Martinez

    President 2012 Poll Watch: Arizona in Play?

    April 23, 2012 /

    If Arizona is in play, then Mitt Romney will be a collosal Biggest Loser in November. This poll while close is probably an outlier.

    With the 2012 presidential election just over six months away, the latest statewide Merrill/Morrison Institute poll found that Arizonans are evenly divided on whom they will support in November.

    According to the poll of 488 registered voters, 42 percent said they would vote for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, while 40 percent said they would support President Barack Obama and 18 percent were undecided. Because the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent, if the election were held today the contest for Arizona’s 11 electoral votes would be a “toss up.”

    The poll found that the electorate is divided along party lines: 80 percent of Republicans said they would vote for Romney, 78 percent of Democrats for Obama. Although the sample of political independents is small (n=166), independents appear to be breaking slightly more for Obama (38 percent) than Romney (28 percent). However, the independent vote is still up for grabs because 34 percent of independents said they are undecided.

    “In Arizona, like the rest of the nation, political independents may determine who wins in November,” said poll director Dr. Bruce Merrill, a senior fellow at Morrison Institute for Public Policy. “The eventual outcome also may be dependent on whether former Surgeon General Richard Carmona can mount a vigorous campaign for retiring Sen. John Kyl’s seat, a campaign that would stimulate turnout in the Hispanic community. While I think if the election were held today Romney probably would win, it appears Obama can mount a competitive campaign in Arizona.”

    Romney appears to have the Tea Party support. Among the 39 percent of the electorate who said they support what the Tea Party stands for, 75 percent said they would vote for Romney.

    But the poll also found that younger voters disproportionately support Obama while older voters support Romney. No “gender gap” was found among Arizona voters, however, as 40 percent of both men and women said they would vote for Obama.

    Remember Arizona has not sent its Electoral College votes to a Democrat since Harry Truman in 1948.

    But, if anything this poll may make more of a case for Romney to add an Hispanic to the ticket – like Senator Marco Rubio od Florida or Governor Susan Martinez of New Mexico.

  • Pinboard Links,  The Morning Flap

    The Morning Flap: April 23, 2012

    April 23, 2012 /

    Assembly member Steven Bradford (D-Gardena) putts on the 18th green as other attendees shake hands during the Speakers Cup, a golf tournament fundraiser hosted by AT&T at Pebble Beach. Photo Credit: Los Angeles Times

    These are my links for April 20th through April 23rd:

    As the sun set behind Monterey Bay on a cool night last year, dozens of the state’s top lawmakers and lobbyists ambled onto the 17th fairway at Pebble Beach for a round of glow-in-the-dark golf. 

    With luminescent balls soaring into the sky, the annual fundraiser known as the Speaker’s Cup was in full swing. 

    Lawmakers, labor-union champions and lobbyists gather each year at the storied course to schmooze, show their skill on the links and rejuvenate at a 22,000-square-foot spa. The affair, which typically raises more than $1 million for California Democrats, has been sponsored for more than a decade by telecommunications giant AT&T. 

    At the 2010 event, AT&T’s president and the state Assembly speaker toured Pebble Beach together in a golf cart, shaking hands with every lawmaker, lobbyist and other VIP in attendance. 

    The Speaker’s Cup is the centerpiece of a corporate lobbying strategy so comprehensive and successful that it has rewritten the special-interest playbook in Sacramento. When it comes to state government, AT&T spends more money, in more places, than any other company.

     

    • President Obama’s Medicare slush fund – An $8 Billion ObamaCare Trick? – Call it President Obama’s Committee for the Re-Election of the President — a political slush fund at the Health and Human Services Department.

      Only this isn’t some little fund from shadowy private sources; this is taxpayer money, redirected to help Obama win another term. A massive amount of it, too — $8.3 billion. Yes, that’s billion, with a B.

      Here is how it works.

      The most oppressive aspects of the ObamaCare law don’t kick in until after the 2012 election, when the president will no longer be answerable to voters. More “flexibility,” he recently explained to the Russians.

    • Flood of fundraising under way in 26th Congressional race – Of the 1,347 men and women running for a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives, only eight have raised more money this year in support of their quest than state Sen. Tony Strickland, of Moorpark.

      Of them, six are incumbents and one is a Democratic candidate in Massachusetts by the name of Joseph P. Kennedy III.

      Only one Republican challenger nationwide outpaced Strickland — Joseph Carvin, of New York, a partner in a hedge fund who outpaced Strickland only because he wrote himself a $1 million check.

      Strickland, the lone Republican among six candidates running in Ventura County’s 26th Congressional District, raised $781,804 from the day he entered the race, Jan. 17, through the end of the first quarter, March 31 — an average of $10,424 a day.

    • How much Hispanics matter in 2012 — in one chart – Republicans have a Hispanic problem.

      Unless they can find ways to begin convincing the nation’s fastest growing population — Hispanics accounted for half of all the growth of the U.S. population over the last decade — that the GOP is a potential political home for them, they won’t remain a credible national party in 2016, 2020 and beyond.

      Some within their party understand this. Take Florida Sen. Marco Rubio who is pushing a Republican “Dream Act” designed to show the Hispanic community that the entirety of the party is not lined up against them. And even former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, who took a hardline stance against illegal immigration in the presidential primary, is starting to moderate his positions.

      Resurgent Republic, a conservative-aligned, polling conglomerate has produced a snappy infographic that details everything you need to know about the Hispanic vote including the fascinating chart below that allows you to experiment with how much of the 2012 electorate will be Hispanic, how much of it Republicans will win and what that means for the outcome of the contest.

    • Republicans making effort to speak to Latino priorities – For the Republican Party’s future, there is no greater strategic imperative than improving its performance with Hispanic voters for this election and for the foreseeable future.

      A 2006 report from the U.S. Census Bureau demonstrates the explosive growth of the Hispanic population in the U.S. From around 15 percent of the population today, it is on pace to grow to nearly a quarter of the population 40 years from now. Just 40 years ago, Hispanics were only 4.7 percent of the population.

      The Washington Post recently identified nine swing states that will decide the 2012 presidential election. Three of them have major Hispanic populations: Florida (primarily Cuban and Puerto Rican), Nevada and Colorado. According to estimates by Matt Barreto of Latino Decisions, only eight states have Hispanic voting-age populations greater than 13 percent, and among those, five are likely to be hotly contested in 2012: New Mexico (42.5 percent Latino), Arizona (21.3 percent), Florida (19.2 percent), Nevada (17.3 percent) and Colorado (13.4 percent). If Republican former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney wins 31 percent of the Hispanic vote in those five states, the rate that McCain won nationally in 2008, he will likely lose four of them, and perhaps even Arizona.

    • Schweitzer Stands by ‘Polygamy Commune’ Remark About the Romneys –
    • Untitled (http://richardmourdock.com/sites/default/files/FactCheckRadio.mp3) – RT @jameshohmann: #INSen is red hot. Daniels ad for Lugar: . Mourdock radio ad: . Lugar mailer: …
    • On the Job
      – YouTube       – RT @jameshohmann: #INSen is red hot. Daniels ad for Lugar: . Mourdock radio ad: . Lugar mailer: …
    • With GOP Race Settled, Will Republicans Turn Out for Romney? – What if they held an election and no one came?

      That could happen Tuesday, when five states will hold the first presidential primaries since a daunting delegate lead and Rick Santorum’s exit from the race made Mitt Romney the presumptive Republican nominee. For voters in Pennsylvania, New York, Delaware, Rhode Island and Connecticut, the put-a-fork-in-it race at the top of the ticket isn’t much of a draw.

      Except that history shows there’s a group of hardcore voters who show up even when the presidential primary has been settled. George Mason University associate professor Michael McDonald, who specializes in turnout, calls them “expressive voters.’’ For a candidate like Romney, viewed in some Republican circles as a consolation prize in an election year in which stronger and more conservative politicians took a pass, Tuesday’s turnout could help “express’’ the enthusiasm gap, if it exists

    • Can the Tea Party Defeat Dick Lugar? – ‘You can’t beat up on Grandpa. You shouldn’t beat up on Grandpa. But still, there comes a time when it’s time.” So declares Richard Mourdock, the Indiana treasurer who is trying to unseat 80-year-old Sen. Dick Lugar in the May 8 GOP primary.

      It’s hard to find a better symbol of the “Washington establishment” than Mr. Lugar, who has lived in D.C. since he was first sworn into office in 1977. But the avuncular senator is beloved by many Hoosiers—and for the very reason that tea partiers want to send him home: He’s a statesman, not a warrior.

      An early test of the tea party’s strength this year will be whether Mr. Mourdock can unseat the iconic incumbent. At 60, the challenger is no spring chicken, nor is he a national rock star like freshman Florida Sen. Marco Rubio. But he’s “capable, competent, and conservative,” as he says.

      Mr. Mourdock spent 30 years in the energy business as a geologist, executive and consultant. A heightened sense of civic pride spurred him to run for Vanderburgh County commissioner in 1995. Ten years later, impressed by his business background and political service, Gov. Mitch Daniels recruited him to run for treasurer. “I am known as a hard-working politician,” says Mr. Mourdock. “I go everywhere in Indiana to help the local Republican parties.

    • Rubio is latest to join Romney on campaign trail – CNN Political Ticker – CNN.com Blogs – RT @PoliticalTicker: Rubio is latest to join Romney on campaign trail –
    • New York Times Backs Romney in N.Y. Primary – Lara Seligman – NationalJournal.com – RT @nationaljournal: New York Times backs Romney in NY Republican primary.
    • 6 things to watch for at the John Edwards trial – John Edwards’s trial is the latest chapter in a “sex, lies and videotape” saga involving a politician’s reckless affair, a brazen cover-up and a spurned wife who later lost her battle with cancer.

      But to those in the world of campaign finance, it’s also about the fuzzy line between the political and the personal, vague legal standards and questions of prosecutorial overreach.

    • New York Times features piece on Mormons: In Salt Lake City, Museum Show – The president, according to Mormon doctrine, is literally a seer, a prophet – the president, that is, of the church. Usually American presidents have a somewhat lower reputation.

      Now that Mitt Romney, an active Mormon, is aspiring to the more mundane office, new attention has come upon the faith that guides him. And much of that attention has been accompanied by controversy, confusion and concern about how Mormonism fits into American society.

      For a glimpse of how Mormons see themselves, though, it’s worth visiting the Church History Museum of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints here. Created by believers, for believers, the museum shows how close to the center of American life Mormons consider themselves to be.

    • Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog » @Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-04-23 – @Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-04-23
    • Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog » Day By Day April 22, 2012 – Choose – Day By Day April 22, 2012 – Choose
    • Humor / Dissing the engineer – what? – Dilbert on a Sunday Dissing the engineer – what?
    • Sen. Dianne Feinstein puts re-election campaign on cruise control – Millions of dollars were embezzled from her campaign. Twenty-two challengers are trying to knock her off in the June primary. And the stakes in the November election are nothing less than control of Capitol Hill.

      But U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein isn’t a bit worried. Her campaign is on cruise control, her re-election all but certain — yet again.

      After holding elected office for all but five of the last 42 years, Feinstein is the doyenne of California Democrats. She’s so politically bulletproof that no A-list candidates are wasting their time and money trying to dethrone her.

      At 78, Feinstein has become the rare lawmaker who plays to her own political base while not overly riling her opponents. “She should have her easiest re-election ever,” said Gary Jacobson, a UC San Diego political science professor.

    • Senator Rubio wants DREAM Act in time for fall semester – Rubio, in two separate events in Washington D.C., said his plan is still being hammered out, and important details – such as the minimum and maximum age of those who would qualify – were yet to be determined.
      “We’re involving the DREAMers” in the drafting of the measure, he said, using the term that refers to undocumented youth brought to the country by their parents. “We’re involving the kids themselves.”

       

      Asked by a reporter when it will be introduced in the Senate, Rubio said: “When it’s ready. It won’t be next week.”He said he hopes it gets introduced by summer and passed by fall.

      “There are a bunch of kids. . .who want to go to school this fall,” Rubio said at an appearance at the Newseum in Washington, D.C.. “I’m also cognizant that this is an election year,” he added, saying it wouldn’t be easy to get bi-partisan support as the parties vie for elective offices.

      The number of undocumented youth who would benefit from the DREAM Act has been estimated at between 1 million and 2 million. An estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants live in the United States.

      Rubio said at different events throughout Thursday in the nation’s capital that criticism about his plan creating “a permanent underclass” was “not true.”
      The senator said that critics who dismiss his plan before it is even finalized are just interested in keeping the inability of undocumented youth to attend college “a political wedge issue,” and are not really serious about finding a bipartisan solution.

      “The general concept is that [students] would receive the equivalent of a non-immigrant visa, it legitimizes you,” he said of his alternate DREAM Act proposal. “It doesn’t allow you to to become a resident or citizen, however it doesn’t prohibit you from applying.”

      “There’s no limbo” that the students will be stuck in under his plan, he said. “The limbo is what they’re in now.”

    • Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog » CA-26: Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Drops OPPO Bomb on Linda Parks – CA-26: Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Drops OPPO Bomb on Linda Parks
    • Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog » @Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-04-21 – @Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-04-21
    • Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog » @Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-04-22 – @Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-04-22
    • Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog » CA-26: Who Can Out Nanny State on Grocery Bags Tony Strickland or Julia Brownley? – CA-26: Who Can Out Nanny State on Grocery Bags Tony Strickland or Julia Brownley?
    • Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog » President 2012 Poll Watch: Obama Approval Up, But Below Other Presidents Who Were Re-Elected – President 2012 Poll Watch: Obama Approval Up, But Below Other Presidents Who Were Re-Elected
    • Political Cartoons / Amateurs indeed – just like the Secret Service and their Columbian Hookers…. – Amateurs indeed – just like the Secret Service and their Columbian Hookers….
    • Orrin Hatch pushed into primary in Utah Senate race – Utah Sen. Orrin Hatch will face off against conservative former state Sen. Dan Liljenquist in a June primary after the six-term incumbent failed to win 60 percent of the vote at the state Republican convention on Saturday.
    • The Weekend Interview with Joel Kotkin: The Great California Exodus – Now, however, the Golden State’s fastest-growing entity is government and its biggest product is red tape. The first thing that comes to many American minds when you mention California isn’t Hollywood or tanned girls on a beach, but Greece. Many progressives in California take that as a compliment since Greeks are ostensibly happier. But as Mr. Kotkin notes, Californians are increasingly pursuing happiness elsewhere.

      Nearly four million more people have left the Golden State in the last two decades than have come from other states. This is a sharp reversal from the 1980s, when 100,000 more Americans were settling in California each year than were leaving. According to Mr. Kotkin, most of those leaving are between the ages of 5 and 14 or 34 to 45. In other words, young families.

    • Gregory Flap @ Ronnie’s Diner – foursquare – Finished 12 miler and thank goodness for the clouds. Not too hot but humid. With Alice, Nancy and Mary
    • Flap’s Dentistry Blog: The Morning Drill: April 20, 2012 – The Morning Drill: April 20, 2012
    • What swing states? Senate majority hinges on red states and blue states – The Washington Post – RT @RalstonFlash: NV is 7th most likely Senate seat to switch hands, says that Berkley ethics issue could be key.
    • (500) http://pinterest.com/pin/114138171776344451/ – Love that Buffett…..Rule…..
    • (500) http://pinterest.com/pin/114138171776344439/ – Bribe a blogger? Hummmm…..
    • Awesome: Breitbart’s ‘Occupy Unmasked’ trailer released » The Right Scoop – – RT @trscoop: *** Awesome: Breitbart’s ‘Occupy Unmasked’ trailer released
    • California Assemblyman Roger Hernandez was driving state car when arrested in DUI case – Assemblyman Roger Hernandez did not have permission of the Assembly to take a state car out of the Sacramento area last month when he was arrested on suspicion of drunken driving in Concord.

      The Toyota Camry hybrid that Hernandez was driving the night of his arrest, March 27, was an Assembly pool car assigned to the West Covina Democrat for travel in the Capitol area, according to Jon Waldie, Assembly administrator.

      Lawmakers are making more extensive use of personal vehicles or pool cars after California’s independent salary-setting commission eliminated a lease-car program serving Assembly and Senate officeholders.

      The general rule is that Assembly members not take pool cars out of Sacramento without prior permission. Officials prefer that out-of-area trips be for a legislative or governmental purpose, Waldie said.

    • Romney campaign hits Obama on Hispanic unemployment rate – The Hill’s Ballot Box – RT @thehill: Romney campaign hits Obama on Hispanic unemployment rate
    • Poll Watch: American cities favorability poll – The Pacific Northwest has a good reputation nationwide–the two most popular of the 21 prominent cities we asked about in our national poll last weekend are Seattle and Portland, OR. 57% of American voters see Seattle favorably and only 14% unfavorably, edging out Portland (52-12) by three points on the margin.

      The most unpopular is Detroit, which only 22% see positively and 49% negatively. Americans have net-negative impressions of only two other of these cities, and both are in California: Oakland (21-39) and Los Angeles (33-40). In February, PPP found California to be the least popular state in the union. It does have the 11th most popular city, though: San Francisco (48-29).

      Between the pack are Boston (52-17), Atlanta (51-19), Phoenix (49-18), Dallas (48-21), New York (49-23), New Orleans (47-24), Houston (45-22), Salt Lake City (43-20), Philadelphia (42-22), Baltimore (37-24), Las Vegas (43-33), Chicago (42-33), Cleveland (32-25), Washington, D.C. (44-39), and Miami (36-33).

    • Untitled (http://www.vcstar.com/news/2012/apr/20/local-employers-add-3300-jobs-in-march/) – RT @vcstar: Ventura County employers add 3,300 jobs in March, but unemployment rate stays same.
    • MA Dem Congressman Proposes Amendment to Strip Most Newspapers, Churches, Nonprofits, and Other Corporations of All Constitutional Rights – That’s the People’s Rights Amendment:

      Section 1. We the people who ordain and establish this Constitution intend the rights protected by this Constitution to be the rights of natural persons.

      Section 2. People, person, or persons as used in this Constitution does not include corporations, limited liability companies or other corporate entities established by the laws of any state, the United States, or any foreign state, and such corporate entities are subject to such regulation as the people, through their elected state and federal representatives, deem reasonable and are otherwise consistent with the powers of Congress and the States under this Constitution.

      Section 3. Nothing contained herein shall be construed to limit the people’s rights of freedom of speech, freedom of the press, free exercise of religion, and such other rights of the people, which rights are inalienable.

      So just as Congress could therefore ban the speech of nonmedia business corporations, it could ban publications by corporate-run newspapers and magazines — which I think includes nearly all such newspapers and magazines in the country (and for good reason, since organizing a major publications as a partnership or sole proprietorship would make it much harder for it to get investors and to operate). Nor does this proposal leave room for the possibility, in my view dubious, that the Free Press Clause would protect newspapers organized by corporations but not other corporations that want to use mass communications technology. Section 3 makes clear that the preservation of the “freedom of the press” applies only to “the people,” and section 2 expressly provides that corporations aren’t protected as “the people.”

    • Untitled (http://www.snsanalytics.com/Zmf9y7) – RT @SacramentoDaily: California unemployment jumps to 11 percent; 11.6 percent in Sacramento #tcot #catcot
    • The PJ Tatler » Hey Tommy Christopher, You Can Thank Maggie Thatcher for Romney’s ‘Obama Isn’t Working’ Slogan – RACIST! RT @PJTatler: Hey Tommy Christopher,you Can Thank Maggie Thatcher for Romney’s Obama Isn’t Working Slogan #tcot
    • Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog » Update: Obama’s Father Has a Polygamist Past: Montana Democrat Governor Brian Schweitzer Calls Out Mitt Romney’s Mormon “Polygamy” Past – No apology yet from Democrat Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer about Romney polygamy comment: #tcot
    • Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog » The Morning Flap: April 20, 2012 – The Morning Flap: April 20, 2012
  • Barack Obama,  Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012 Poll Watch: Obama Approval Up, But Below Other Presidents Who Were Re-Elected

    April 20, 2012 /

    According to the latest Gallup Poll.

    President Obama’s job approval rating averaged 45.9% during his 13th quarter in office, showing improvement for the second consecutive quarter. His rating is essentially back to where it was before declining last summer and fall.

    These results are based on more than 45,000 Gallup Daily tracking interviews conducted from Jan. 20 through April 19, the 13th quarter Obama has been in office since he was inaugurated on Jan. 20, 2009.

    The improvement in Obama’s approval rating is likely tied to more positive economic news in recent months, especially concerning unemployment. Obama’s approval rating reached as high as 50% in Gallup Daily tracking, for April 3-5, before settling back down into the mid- to high 40% range in recent days.

    Although Obama’s approval rating is improving, this is offset by the fact that it remains below the averages at the same point in time for presidents who were re-elected. All presidents since Eisenhower who were re-elected enjoyed average approval ratings above 50% during their 13th quarters in office.

    Here is the chart of the other President who were re-elected:

    The latest California unemployment numbers indicated that whatever economic recovery we have been experiencing lately may be short-lived. If American voters perceive the economy is not improving, President Obama will sink in the polls.

    Obama remains short of the historical comfort zone — above 50% approval — that most successfully re-elected presidents achieved during their re-election year. However, he is not far below that threshold, and has seen his approval rating improve over the last two quarters.

    The latest Gallup Daily tracking three-day rolling average of 46% suggests Obama is ending his 13th quarter at precisely his average performance for the entire quarter.

    This means Mitt Romney has an opportunity.

  • Barack Obama,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012 Poll Watch: Romney 48% Vs. Obama 43%

    April 17, 2012 /

    According to the latest Gallup Poll.

    These are the results when registered voters are asked: “Suppose the presidential election were held today. If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party’s candidate and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney were the Republican Party’s candidate, who would you vote for Barack Obama, the Democrat or Mitt Romney, the Republican?” Those who are undecided are further asked if they lean more toward Obama or Romney and their leanings are incorporated into the results.

    However, the latest Pew national poll has President Obama leading, but his lead has narrowed from the previous month.

    But, what really matters is a few key battleground states and in one, President Obama is winning – Florida.

    The polls are likely to fluctuate now as each national campaign ramps up their advertising programs.

  • Barack Obama,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012 Poll Watch: Mitt Romney 46 Vs. Barack Obama 44%

    April 12, 2012 /


    According to the latest Fox News Poll.

    Republican Mitt Romney holds a slim edge over President Obama in a head-to-head matchup, a Fox News poll released Thursday shows. In addition, the poll finds the president’s job rating has dropped to its lowest point of the year.

    In a presidential matchup, Romney tops Obama by 46-44 percent if the election were today. 

    As with every Romney-Obama matchup in the past six months, the race is so tight that it is within the poll’s margin of sampling error. This, however, is only the second time the Fox News poll shows Romney on top. The first time was November 2011, when he was also up by 2 percentage points.

    The poll was conducted Monday through Wednesday. On Tuesday, Rick Santorum suspended his presidential bid — giving Romney a clear path to the Republican nomination. 

    More Republicans (42 percent) than Democrats (32 percent) or independents (34 percent) say they are “extremely” interested in the upcoming presidential election.

    Even so, the strength of party support in the matchup is dead even: 85 percent of Democrats back Obama and 85 percent of Republican back Romney.

    Among the highly sought after group of independents, the poll found 43 percent back Romney and 37 percent Obama. Nearly one in four independent voters (21 percent) is undecided or won’t vote for either of the major party candidates.  Last month, independents split evenly between Obama and Romney at 40 percent each. In February, Romney had a 9-point advantage. 

    The poll shows the gender gap may not solely be a problem for the Republican candidate. Women are more likely to back Obama (by 49-41 percent), while men are even more likely to give their support to Romney (by 52-38 percent). The 2008 Fox News national exit poll showed women voted for Obama over Republican John McCain by 13 percentage points (56-43 percent). Historically, exit poll results show women have consistently backed the Democrat over the Republican in presidential elections.

    Now that Mitt Romney has clinched the Republican nomination, it is game on.

    The Hilary Rosen flap may indeed hurt Obama enough that his female support may wane and any gender gap to his advantage may narrow.

    Stay tuned…

  • Pinboard Links,  The Morning Flap

    The Morning Flap: April 11, 2012

    April 11, 2012 /

    These are my links for April 6th through April 11th:

    • Google+ gets major redesign with simpler UI and more customization Google announced this morning that Google+ is set to receive a massive redesign over the next few days that will make it easier to use and much more intuitive. The company has been innovating quickly with its social network, and this is just another example of their commitment to the platform.   For starters, the main page has seen a complete overhaul. Rather than your tabs bring up top as well as along the side, you’ll get icons along the left panel. These are also customizable, so if you don’t want the Games icon, you can simply move it. There are also quick actions that you can access for each icon by hovering over them.   Posting photos and videos is getting an upgrade as well. Larger content will appear in your Stream now whether you’re sharing it yourself or viewing pictures from your friends. Google is adding a feature that they’re calling ‘cards’, which are streams of conversations that you can join. There will also be an activity drawer to highlight important content.

    • ObamaCare Poll Watch: Health Care Law Support Slides – The recent Supreme Court arguments over the constitutionality of President Obama’s health care law have not helped the public’s perception of the landmark legislation. A new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds just 39% of Americans support the reforms, it’s lowest percentage ever.

      “Only about half of Democrats want the entire law upheld. Nearly two-thirds of Republicans want all of it thrown out. “

    • The Obama Rule – Forget Warren Buffett, or whatever other political prop the White House wants to use for its tax agenda. This week the Administration officially endorsed what in essence is the Obama Rule: Taxes must be high simply to spread the wealth, never mind the impact on the economy or government revenue. It’s all about “fairness,” baby.

      This was long apparent to those fated to closely watch the 2008 campaign, but some voters might have missed the point amid the gauzy rhetoric about hope and change. Now we know without any doubt. White House aides made it official Tuesday in their on-the-record briefing on the new federal minimum tax that travels under the political alias known as the “Buffett rule.”

    • Online sales tax battle pits Amazon against Norquist and Sen. DeMint – Proponents of an online sales tax aren’t letting up in their push to move legislation through Congress this year, despite the opposition of conservative heavyweights.

      Retailers have been lobbying aggressively for legislation that would help states collect sales taxes from online purchases. Joining in the effort are state and local governments and some unions, which see an opportunity to raise more revenue.

    • Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog » President 2012: Rick Santorum Suspends Presidential Campaign – President 2012: Rick Santorum Suspends Presidential Campaign
    • Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog » Day By Day April 8 – 10 Win One for the Zimmer, Smokin’ and Rush Job – Day By Day April 8 – 10 Win One for the Zimmer, Smokin’ and Rush Job
    • Parent Center Opens on El Monte High School Campus – More than 80 parents, students, staff and community members came together in celebration of the grand opening of El Monte High School’s new Parent Center. The center was realized through a partnership between the school and L.E.A.R.N.’s (Learning, Enrichment & Academic Resources Network) GEAR UP (Gaining Early Awareness and Readiness for Undergraduate Programs) program which is designed to increase the number of low income students who are prepared to enter and succeed in post-secondary education.{
      According to El Monte High School principal Keith Richardson, the center will provide resources enabling parents to partner with their children in academic success throughout their high school years as well as encourage them to seek post-secondary education.
    • El Monte Union weighs proposal to manage its own bond program to cut contractor costs – Months after a major controversy surrounding its bond construction management company, the El Monte Union High School District may begin overseeing its $148 million bond program internally instead.

      Board members last week postponed the decision until they could get more information on the proposal, which would eliminate the need to hire outside consultants and save the district roughly $1 million a year, according to district documents.

      “A lot of districts use construction management firms that have a large staff with different expertise,” said El Monte Union’s Chief Business Official Ryan Di Giulio. “There’s a cost associated with that. There’s a certain protection provided with that expertise. That’s what each district has to weigh.”

      The district is currently contracting with Industry-based Del Terra to manage several construction projects following the district’s fallout with former bond management company Alsaleh Project Management (APM).

      The two entities officially parted ways in October following allegations by the district that APM misused public funds. The district later retracted those accusations, settled with APM – paying $150,000 in outstanding invoices and agreeing not to elaborate on any of the issues.

      The contract with APM was never reinstated.

      School board member Salvador Ramirez said the changes could result in a big cost savings to the district as well as better oversight.

    • Health-care law will add $340 billion to deficit, new study finds – President Obama’s landmark health-care initiative, long touted as a means to control costs, will actually add more than $340 billion to the nation’s budget woes over the next decade, according to a new study by a Republican member of the board that oversees Medicare financing.

      The study is set to be released Tuesday by Charles Blahous, a conservative policy analyst whom Obama approved in 2010 as the GOP trustee for Medicare and Social Security. His analysis challenges the conventional wisdom that the health-care law, which calls for an expensive expansion of coverage for the uninsured beginning in 2014, will nonetheless reduce deficits by raising taxes and cutting payments to Medicare providers.

    • @Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-04-10 | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – @Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-04-10
    • With my daughter, Ashley and son Jesse at Saugus Cafe for lun… on Twitpic – With my daughter, Ashley and son Jesse at Saugus Cafe for lunch
    • @Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-04-09 | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – @Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-04-09
    • Ultra-Training FAQ, Part 2 | runner’s rambles – How do you build up mileage / keep high mileage without getting burned out?
    • With my grandson, James Phillip in San Diego for Easter
      on Twitpic       – With my grandson, James Phillip in San Diego for Easter
    • yfrog Photo : http://yfrog.com/hsrz1gjj Shared by Flap – With my daughter, Anna, son Scott in Irvine, California. Happy Easter. Anna is expecting in August
    • @Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-04-08 | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – @Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-04-08
    • Happy Easter 2012: He is Risen | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Happy Easter 2012: He is Risen
    • Parting Ways – Anyone who has read Derb in our pages knows he’s a deeply literate, funny, and incisive writer. I direct anyone who doubts his talents to his delightful first novel, “Seeing Calvin Coolidge in a Dream,” or any one of his “Straggler” columns in the books section of NR. Derb is also maddening, outrageous, cranky, and provocative. His latest provocation, in a webzine, lurches from the politically incorrect to the nasty and indefensible. We never would have published it, but the main reason that people noticed it is that it is by a National Review writer. Derb is effectively using our name to get more oxygen for views with which we’d never associate ourselves otherwise. So there has to be a parting of the ways. Derb has long danced around the line on these issues, but this column is so outlandish it constitutes a kind of letter of resignation. It’s a free country, and Derb can write whatever he wants, wherever he wants. Just not in the pages of NR or NRO, or as someone associated with NR any longer.
    • NBC Fires Producer of Misleading Zimmerman Tape – NBC News has fired a producer who was involved in the production of a misleading segment about the Trayvon Martin case in Florida.

      The person was fired on Thursday, according to two people with direct knowledge of the disciplinary action who declined to be identified discussing internal company matters. They also declined to name the fired producer. A spokeswoman for NBC News declined to comment.

      The action came in the wake of an internal investigation by NBC News into the production of the segment, which strung together audio clips in such a way that made George Zimmerman’s shooting of Mr. Martin sound racially motivated. Ever since the Feb. 26 shooting, there has been a continuing debate about whether race was a factor in the incident.

      The segment in question was shown on the “Today” show on March 27. It included audio of Mr. Zimmerman saying, “This guy looks like he’s up to no good. He looks black.”

    • Day By Day April 7, 2012 – Voice-Overs | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Day By Day April 7, 2012 – Voice-Overs
    • CA-26: Fundraising wrap-up: Big hauls for Democrat House contender Julia Brownley – California Democrat Julia Brownley will post $280,000 in her first fundraising report and has $250,000 in the bank. Brownley is running in a Democrat-friendly district in Florida left open by the retirment of Rep. Elton Gallegly (R-Calif.).
    • Untitled (http://getglue.com/Fullosseousflap/stickers/fan?s=ts&ref=Fullosseousflap) – I’m a Fan of Los Angeles Dodgers on @GetGlue
    • Santorum moves fuel predictions he will exit – Rick Santorum’s campaign insisted Friday the former Pennsylvania senator is still in the race despite mounting pressure even from voters in his home state that he pull out before the Keystone State’s primary April 24.

      But Santorum has scheduled no public events over the holiday weekend and has made no major media buys, fueling speculation that he might quit. Polling in Pennsylvania that shows him slipping against front-runner Mitt Romney raises the prospect of an embarrassing home-state loss that could hurt his chances if he were to make a run for the nomination in 2016.

      A Santorum campaign spokesman said the candidate had a busy slate of events scheduled for next week and promised that a list would be released soon.

    • Giuliani Close to Endorsing Romney – The Washington Post reports that Rudy Giuliani (R), who ran in the 2008 Republican presidential primaries, is about to endorse his former opponent Mitt Romney, according to the Romney campaign’s New York state director Guy Molinari.

      Said Molinari, “He’s about to… He wants to do it for the sake of the country, so he is willing to put his own feelings aside.”

      Liz Benjamin points out that Giuliani is the last “high-profile holdout” in New York and “hasn’t been terribly kind to his erstwhile opponent, calling the former Massachusetts governor a flip-flopperon national TV back in February.”

    • Gregory Flap @ Ronnie’s Diner – foursquare – After our 8 miler I am here with Mary, Alice, Nancy and Tara (@ Ronnie’s Diner)
    • @Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-04-07 | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – @Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-04-07
    • Updated With Video: CA-26: Linda Parks Avoids Question Who She Supports for President | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Updated With Video: CA-26: Linda Parks Avoids Question Who She Supports for President
    • The Afternoon Flap: April 6, 2012 | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – The Afternoon Flap: April 6, 2012
    • CA-26: Linda Parks Avoids Question Who She Supports for President | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – CA-26: Linda Parks Avoids Question Who She Supports for President
  • Barack Obama,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012 Colorado Poll Watch: Obama Leading Romney 53% Vs. 40%

    April 11, 2012 /


    According to the latest PPP Poll.

    Barack Obama’s opened up a 13 point lead on Mitt Romney in Colorado at 53-40. He’s gained 11 points in the state since December when he led just 47-45.

    The formula for Obama’s gains is the same in Colorado as it is everywhere. He’s getting more popular and Romney’s getting less popular. In December only 45% of voters approved of the job Obama was doing to 50% who disapproved. Now he’s on positive ground with 50% giving him good marks to 47% who think he’s doing a poor job. The main thing that’s changed is Democrats really rallying around him. In December he was at 76/18 with them, but now it’s 89/8. The party is getting a lot more unified as the election comes closer.

    Romney’s headed in the other direction. His net favorability has gone from -18 (35/53) to an even worse -29 (31/60). Romney had a healthy amount of appeal to Democrats earlier with 20% viewing him favorably but that’s now down to 11%. And he’s extremely unpopular with independents at 25/65.

    In the head to head between them Obama leads Romney by 26 points with independents at 57-31. And Romney’s now getting just 7% of the Democratic vote, down from 14% on our December poll. This is the trend we’re seeing in most states- the primary campaign has caused much of Romney’s crossover support to evaporate and it’s also making him lose ground with independents.
    Romney’s problem with women shows itself in a major way in Colorado. He’s down by 24 points with them at 58-34. With men the race is actually tied. Obama’s also up by an astounding 72-17 margin with voters under 30 in the state, a pretty good sign of where Colorado is headed politically.

    I am not surprised and never considered Colorado a serious key battleground state. The only contested races appear to be in Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Nevada and Florida.

    Mitt Romney will be an uninspired Republican nominee, but has a chance in those five states. A good media campaign and ground operation to turn out voters might lead him to a victory.

    Otherwise, it will be on to 2016 for the GOP and Tea Party.

    The entire poll is here.

  • Polling,  Unemployment Rate

    Gallup Poll Watch: U.S. Unemployment Rate Falls in March But…

    April 5, 2012 /

    According to the latest Gallup Poll.

    U.S. unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, declined to 8.4% in March from 9.1% in February, while Gallup’s seasonally adjusted rate fell to 8.1% from 8.6% in February.

    These results are based on Gallup Daily tracking interviewing conducted in March, including interviews with 31,283 U.S. adults, 67.8% of whom are active in the workforce. Gallup’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is based on the adjustment used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the same month of the previous year.

    On an unadjusted basis, the March unemployment rate matches the previous low since Gallup began monitoring and reporting unemployment in January 2010. The unadjusted unemployment rate was last at 8.4% in October and November 2011. On a seasonally adjusted basis, March’s 8.1% reading is near the monthly low of 7.9% for Gallup’s U.S. unemployment rate, seen in January of this year. In both cases, Gallup trends show the U.S. unemployment rate declining dramatically over the past year.

    This is some good news for the American economy. And, why President Obama has been rising in the polls, as of late.

    Americans are feeling better about their jobs and their economic job prospects.

    Underemployment has dramtically fallen.

    Gallup’s U.S. underemployment measure combines those unemployed with those working part time but looking for full-time work. As a result of sharp declines in both of these groups, the underemployment rate, on an unadjusted basis, fell to 18.0% in March from 19.1% in February 2012. The underemployment rate declined to as low as 18.0% last July before reversing course in August; it also increased from November through January.

    Here is the chart:

    Now, these numbers are from Gallup and not the government, Bureau of Labor Services. Here is the comparison chart:

    Whichever the numbers, there is a decided downward trend = good news for Americans.

    So, what does this all mean?

    Gallup’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate decreased in March to 8.1%, slightly higher than January’s 7.9% reading but an improvement from 8.5% in Gallup’s preliminary mid-March estimate. The March and January rates are the two lowest since Gallup began monitoring and reporting unemployment in January 2010. They are also consistent with Gallup’s other behavioral economic data for March showing a new high in Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index and a post-recession high in its Job Creation Index as well as strong consumer spending.

    While the sharp drop in the U.S. unemployment rate during recent months is clearly good news, it raises some significant economic questions. Traditional economic analysis raises the question of why the unemployment rate is falling much more rapidly than can be justified by the modest pace of current economic growth. Answering this question is essential to determining the sustainability of the declining trend in unemployment.

    Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke made this issue the centerpiece of his recent speech to the National Association for Business Economics, noting, “the better jobs numbers seem somewhat out of sync with the overall pace of economic expansion.” He went on to explain his hypothesis that companies shed many more jobs than necessary during the recession and financial crisis of 2008-2009, and now they are correcting their workforces for this understaffing of the past. The chairman went on to suggest that achieving further declines in the unemployment rate is likely to require a more rapid pace of economic growth going forward.

    f Bernanke is right, then the rapid decline in the unemployment rate might be approaching its end as individual businesses achieve a right-sizing of their workforces. Further, traditional economics also suggest that many people who have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for the economy to improve might decide that now is the time to seek a job, increasing the baseline figure used to calculate unemployment. In turn, this could keep the unemployment rate from decreasing or even send it higher, negatively affecting economic confidence and the overall economy — not good news for political incumbents, including the president.

    On the other hand, the economy might continue to build on the momentum indicated by the current positive trend in Gallup’s behavioral economic data, or perhaps the economy is already growing faster than the current economic data suggest. Either way, if true, the unemployment rate could fall below 8.0% in the not-too-distant future — particularly if the workforce does not grow — meaning good things for the economy, incumbents, and the president’s re-election effort.

    In other words, this decline in unemployment and underemployment may be an outlier from economic activity or a portent for increasing economic growth to come.

    Again, stay tuned…