Flap's Blog – FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog

According to the latest Fox News Poll.

With the Republican field for the 2012 presidential nomination still in flux, the two major candidates who ran for president in 2008 — Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee — receive the most backing among GOP voters nationally.

Romney garners the support of 19 percent of Republicans and Huckabee 17 percent, according to a Fox News poll released Thursday. The next group of candidates is bunched together: Sarah Palin at nine percent, Donald Trump at eight percent, and Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul receive seven percent a piece.

Earlier this month, Huckabee was at 15 percent among Republican voters, Romney 14 percent, Palin 12 percent, Trump 11 percent and Gingrich 7 percent (April 3-5).

Among voters who consider themselves part of the Tea Party movement, Huckabee (19 percent) and Romney (17 percent) are still the top two choices, followed by Palin (10 percent) and Trump (10 percent). No other contenders receive double-digit support.

The GOP Primary:

• Mitt Romney – 19%
• Mike Huckabee – 17%
• Sarah Palin – 9%
• Donald Trump – 8%
• Newt Gingrich – 7%
• Ron Paul – 7%

The entire poll is here.

The poll was taken Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday nights, so some interviews were conducted before and some were after the president released his birth certificate.

The Fox News poll is based on landline and cell phone interviews with 911 randomly chosen registered voters nationwide and was conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) from April 25 to April 27. For the total sample, it has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

According to the latest PPP Poll.

Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

• Mitt Romney – 64% Vs. 23%
• Mike Huckabee – 61% Vs. 26%
• Newt Gingrich – 61% Vs. 21%
• Sarah Palin – 65% Vs. 26%
• Donald Trump – 47% Vs. 40%

But, Mitt Romney’s lead is declining as Donald Trump has entered the field.

Mitt Romney continues to be the early favorite to win the Republican race in Nevada next year, as he did in 2008. But his support in the state is on the decline, suggesting he may not be able to take a repeat victory for granted.

This is the fourth look we’ve taken at the GOP contest in Nevada and Romney’s support there has been on a steady decline. Last July he was at 34% in the state and he maintained that 34% standing in an October poll of Republican voters. But in January he dropped to 31% and now he’s at this 24% level. It’s no coincidence that Romney’s loss of support coincides with Pawlenty vaulting from 1% in January to now 8% in the Nevada polling. The two appeal to a similar type of voter and generally any time we’ve seen Pawlenty gain we’ve seen a corresponding Romney fall.

Mitt Romney has to be considered the favorite in the Nevada caucuses. He is Mormon and there is a large population of LDS voters who WILL march to the caucuses to vote for one of their own. Donald Trump will fade as the weeks meander towards summer.

The GOP Caucus preference:

• Romney – 24%
• Trump – 16%
• Gingrich – 11%
• Huckabee 10%
• Palin – 8%
• Pawlenty – 8%
• Bachmann – 7%
• Paul – 5%

Yeah, I would be shocked if Romney did not win Nevada. 

So, let’s see how it breaks out:

• Iowa = Huckabee (if he runs)
• New Hampshire = Romney (but by how much?)
• Nevada = Romney
• South Carolina = Huckabee (if he runs)
• Florida (where the real race starts)
• Super Tuesday – ?

The entire poll is here.

According to the latest PPP Poll.

Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:

• President Barack Obama – 45% Vs. 52%

Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

• Mitt Romney – 43% Vs. 43%
• Mike Huckabee – 36% Vs. 45%
• Newt Gingrich – 33% Vs. 53%
• Sarah Palin – 34% Vs. 61%
• Donald Trump – 32% Vs. 59%

The General Election:

• Romney – 46% vs. Obama – 43%
• Obama – 45% Vs. Huckabee – 43%
• Obama – 46% Vs. Gingrich – 42%
• Obama – 50% Vs. Palin – 39%
• Obama – 47% Vs. Trump – 41%

In Nevada, a key battleground state which the GOP needs to win the Presidency in 2012 is definitely in play. President Obama is in trouble in Nevada.

Barack Obama’s standing in Nevada has taken a significant turn in the wrong direction since early January and it appears he could have a much tougher time in the state next year than he did in 2008, particularly if the Republicans nominate Mitt Romney.

Obama’s approval rating in Nevada is only 45% with 52% of voters disapproving of him. That represents an 11 point negative shift in his net approval since he posted a 50/46 spread on PPP’s first 2011 poll of the state. There are two problems contributing to Obama’s poor numbers. The first is that he is very unpopular with independents, only 33% of whom express favor for the job he’s doing to 65% who disapprove. The second is that Republicans (89%) are more united in their unhappiness with Obama than Democrats (79%) are in their approval. When independents don’t like you and the opposite party dislikes you more than your own likes you, that’s pretty much always going to be a formula for bad poll numbers.

Despite his unpopularity Obama does lead 4 of the 5 Republicans we tested against him in the state, albeit by smaller margins than what he won over John McCain in 2008.

Nevada voters are leery of President Obama. Whether it is the assinine comments about Las Vegas travel, the massive unemployment or rampant house foreclosures, Nevada is increasngly looking like an Electoral College pick-up for the Republicans.

The entire poll is here.

According to the latest PPP Polls.

Donald Trump Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

• Nevada: 32% Vs. 59% (-27)
• North Carolina: 27% Vs. 62% (-35)
• Iowa: 27% Vs. 61% (-34)
• New Hampshire: 27% Vs. 60% (-33)

Even though President Obama released his long form birth certificate today and Donald Trump claimed some victory so to speak, the Donald does not poll well with Republican or independent voters.

Republicans don’t really like him that much. In New Hampshire his favorability with them is 46/40, in Iowa it’s 41/40, in North Carolina it’s 45/42, and in Nevada it’s 51/37. He’s doing well in primary polls because the GOP voters who do like him are pretty inclined to name him as their top Presidential choice. That’s different from say a Mike Huckabee or Mitt Romney who are mostly well liked even by Republicans for whom they are not the first choice for the nomination. With Trump there is not as much of that middle ground- you either want him as the nominee or you dislike him. Those kinds of numbers will maybe give you a long shot chance at the nomination but they don’t make you a viable contender in November.

Trump is completely toxic to independent voters. His favorability with them in Nevada is 35/57, in Iowa it’s 29/58, in New Hampshire it’s 23/63, and in North Carolina it’s 28/61. His recent antics have ingratiated him to a meaningful chunk of the far right Republican base, but he’s completely turned off the folks in the center whose votes often determine who comes out on top in Presidential contests.

So, it has been a fun show Donald for a few weeks, but it is time to say good bye. With these numbers, Trump will NOT be a candidate for President.

According to the latest PPP Poll.

Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:

President Barack Obama – 49% Vs.48%

Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

• Newt Gingrich –  31% Vs. 50%
• Mike Huckabee – 42% Vs. 37%
• Sarah Palin –  33% Vs. 60%
• Mitt Romney – 31% Vs. 44%
• Donald Trump – 27% Vs. 62%

The General Election:

• Obama – 48% Vs. Huckabee – 47%
• Obama – 47% Vs. Romney 44%
• Obama – 49% Vs. Gingrich – 45%
• Obama – 52% Vs. Palin – 40%
• Obama – 51% Vs. Trump – 39%

PPP polling seems to think that the President is holding his own in North Carolina. But, in this point in the race for 2012, Obama is not looking particularly strong in a key battleground state that the GOP nominee must win.

Barack Obama’s poll numbers nationwide aren’t looking very good right now but one place where he’s holding up pretty well is North Carolina. His approval rating there this month is 49%, with 48% of voters disapproving. Those numbers basically mirror the results of the 2008 election in the state, pretty good given that in our national polling right now his approval spread is running 13 points behind his margin of victory against John McCain.

There are two data points key to Obama’s continued decent standing in North Carolina. In most places Obama has maintained his popularity with minorities but seen a significant decline in his popularity with white voters. Here though his 37% approval rating with whites matches the percentage of the vote we found him winning in 2008 and that combined with his 87% standing with black voters puts him on slightly positive ground overall. The other key thing for Obama is that he’s at 50/44 with independents here, basically matching his 2008 victory margin over McCain in the state with those voters and running counter to his 37/54 approval breakdown with them nationally.

Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney are both withn the margin of error (4.4%) in the polls with an uncumbent President. Huckabee has NOT even made overtures to run for the office. This isn’t saying much about Obama’s strength.

The PPP polling folks, a Democratic pollster, are having some delusions of grandeur here. Obama is in trouble.

The entire poll is here.

According to the latest PPP Poll.

Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

• Mike Huckabee – 73% Vs. 10%
• Sarah Palin – 67% Vs. 18%
• Newt Gingrich – 57% Vs. 20%
• Mitt Romney – 51% Vs. 23%
• Donald Trump – 47% Vs. 33%

The GOP Primary:

• Huckabee – 24%
• Trump – 24%
• Palin – 13%
• Romney – 11%
• Gingrich – 9%
• Pawlenty – 4%
• Bachmann – 3%
• Paul – 3%

As the GOP field narrows in the next 30 days, we will see how the numbers start to move. As Karl Rove said yesterday, a GOP candidate cannot wait more than another 30-60 days to begin raising sufficient money to run their campaign. And, major GOP donors are waiting on the sidelines, waiting for the field to firm up.