• Donald Trump,  Herman Cain,  Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012,  Ron Paul,  Rudy Giuliani,  Sarah Palin,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012 Poll Watch: Romney 20% Vs. Palin 12% Vs. Gingrich 9% Vs. Giuliani 7%

    According to the latest Suffolk University Poll.

    Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

    • Barack Obama – 51% Vs. 42%
    • Mitt Romney –  39% Vs. 32%
    • Mitch Daniels – 10% Vs. 14% Never heard of = 46%
    • Tim Pawlenty – 18% Vs. 16% Never heard of = 38%
    • Newt Gingrich – 29% Vs. 50%
    • Michele Bachmann – 20% vs. 28% Never heard of = 30%
    • Ron Paul – 24% Vs. 34%
    • Sarah Palin – 31% Vs. 58%

    Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:

    • President Barack Obama – 47% Vs. 45%

    Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be re-elected or is it time to give someone else a chance?

    • Deserve Re-election – 43% 
    • Someone else – 48%

    GOP Primary Head to Head:

    • Romney – 20%
    • Palin – 12%
    • Gingrich – 9%
    • Giuliani – 7%
    • Paul – 5%
    • Daniels – 4%
    • Cain – 4%
    • Bachmann – 4%
    • Pawlenty – 3%

    General Election:

    • Obama – 46% vs. Romney – 43%
    • Obama – 47% Vs. Pawlenty – 31%
    • Obama – 50% Vs. Bachmann – 30%
    • Obama – 52% Vs. Gingrich – 38%
    • Obama – 48% Vs. Daniels – 30%

    Is the economy improving or getting worse?

    • Improving – 41%
    • Getting Worse – 46%

    This is again a national poll and it is not certain that Sarah Palin, Mitch Daniels or Rudy Giuliani will be candidates. And, the poll was taken before Huckabee and Trump dropped out.

    But, at the present time, it looks like you would have to consider Mitt Romney as the front runner.

    The nationwide survey of 1,070 United States likely voters was conducted May 10-17, 2011, using live telephone interviews. The margin of error is +/- 3.0 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence.

  • Donald Trump,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 Poll Watch: Obama Gets a Bounce – Obama – 47% Vs. Romney – 42%

    According to the latest PPP Poll.

    The killing of Osama bin Laden has given Barack Obama a bounce in his approval ratings. But it doesn’t appear to have boosted his chances for reelection.

    PPP this month finds Obama with a 49% approval rating to 43% of voters who disapprove. That’s a seven point improvement on the margin since last month’s national survey when slightly more voters (48%) gave him poor marks for his work than good ones (47%). Obama’s greatest improvement has come with Republicans (from 8% approval to 14%). He’s up with independents (from 44% to 49%) and with Democrats (from 81% to 83%) by smaller amounts.

    More voters may like Obama for the moment, but there aren’t more planning to support him next year. Last month Obama led the Huckabee/Romney/Palin/Gingrich quartet by an average of 10.75 points. This month Obama leads those same four candidate by an average of…10.75 points. There’s been no improvement in his reelect numbers whatsoever since the bin Laden death and if there hasn’t been in the week after the killing it doesn’t seem likely there will be 18 months after the killing either. What Obama’s approval bounce appears to be is an increase in the percentage of people who say they like him, but still won’t vote for him. They appreciate him taking out bin Laden but that’s not going to outweigh everything he’s done that they don’t like over the course of the last 27 months.

    Approval Vs. Disapproval:

    • Mike Huckabee – 33% Vs. 41%
    • Sarah Palin – 33% Vs. 60%
    • Newt Gingrich – 29% Vs. 53%
    • Mitt Romney – 32% Vs. 41%
    • Donald Trump – 24% Vs. 65%
    • Mitch Daniels – 14% Vs. 33% Vs. 53% (not sure)

    Again, voters are not amored with the Republican Presidetial candidates and the one new face, Mitch Daniels is not really known.

    We also tested Mitch Daniels on this poll and he trails 48-34 but what might be most interesting is his favorability numbers with Republicans. Only 23% express a favorable opinion of him to 25% with an unfavorable one. I think a fair amount of that ‘unfavorable’ rating can be explained by voters who rate just about any politician they’ve never heard of negatively- which I think is about 10% of the population- but those are not impressive numbers by any stretch of the imagination. Beltway journalists are clearly a lot more enamored with Daniels than actual GOP voters are.

    General Election Head to Head:

    • Obama – 49% Vs. Huckabee – 42%
    • Obama – 54% Vs. Palin – 37%
    • Obama – 52% Vs. Gingrich – 38%
    • Obama – 47% Vs. Romney – 42%

    Again, this is a national poll and the election contest is in key battleground sates. But, it is surprising that Obama did not receive more of a bounce with the killing of Osama Bin Laden. This event will fade with time.

    What the GOP nominess should hope is that their favorability improves.

    The entire poll is here.

    PPP surveyed 814 American voters from May 5th to 8th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.4%.  This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political 

    organization.  PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.  PPP  is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times

    found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

  • Donald Trump,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 Virginia Poll Watch: Obama 52% Vs. Huckabee 43%

    According to the latest PPP Poll.

    Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:

    • President Barack Obama – 51% vs. 44%

    Democrats are united for the President.

    The biggest key for him is that he has the Democratic base completely behind him- 94% approve to only 4% who disapprove. Virginia still has a lot of white conservative Democrats, particularly in certain parts of the state, so for Obama to have almost unanimous approval within his party is very impressive. He even has more Republicans (albeit a paltry 7%) who approve of him than there are Democrats (4%) who disapprove. That’s not something we’re seeing in our polling very often right now. Independents narrowly give him good marks, 48/46, as well.

    Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

    • Mike Huckabee – 37% Vs. 42%
    • Mitt Romney – 35% Vs. 43%
    • Newt Gingrich – 26% Vs. 54%
    • Sarah Palin – 31% Vs. 62%
    • Donald Trump – 22% vs. 69%

    General Election Head to Head:

    • Obama – 52% Vs Huckabee – 43%
    • Obama – 51% Vs. Romney – 40%
    • Obama – 54% Vs. Gingrich – 37%
    • Obama – 55% Vs. Palin – 40%
    • Obama – 54% Vs. Trump – 32%

    Virginia is a key battleground sate that the GOP needs to flip in 2012. Compare the results of the most recent Washington Post poll of Virginia.

    Similar, no?

    In Virginia, the GOP Presidential candidate field is not very popular and well received. If the Republicans want to take back Virginia’s Electoral College votes, they will need to run candidates other than the current field. Calling on Mitch Daniels and/or Chris Christie.

    Even if Obama was unpopular in Virginia he’d still be in a decent position to win the state again because the GOP contenders are so weak there. Take those unpopular Republicans and combine them with a decently popular Obama and you have a very difficult battle for the GOP to get Virginia back. And it’s hard to imagine the party winning back the White House without Virginia- because of that fact and because of Obama’s relative strength there, this is looking to me like the most important state in the Presidential race next year.

    Exactly and why Mitch Daniels or Chris Christie will jump into the race.

    The entire poll is here.

  • Donald Trump,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012 Virginia Poll Watch: Obama 51% vs. Romney 44%, Obama 53% Vs. Huckabee 44%

    According to the latest Washington Post poll.

    Presidential Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:

    • Barack Obama – 57% Vs. 40% (49% vs. 46%)

    General Election Head to Head:

    • Obama – 51% vs. Romney – 44% (48% Vs. 46%)
    • Obama – 53% Vs. Huckabee – 44% (50% Vs. 46%)
    • Obama – 55% Vs. Pawlenty – 35% (51% Vs. 38%)
    • Obama – 61% Vs. Trump – 30% (54% Vs. 35%)
    • Obama – 61% Vs. Palin – 30% (55% Vs. 36%)

    Virginia is a key battleground state that the Republican nominee will need to deny President Barack Obama a second term. Undoubtedly, President Obama has received a bounce from the Osama bin Ladin operation and this is somewhat reflected in this poll.

    However, the GOP will either have to nominate someone else or hope that Romney and/or Huckabee will be able to persuade Virginia voters.

    Survey of 1,180 adults in Virginia was conducted April 28 – May 4, 2011; including 677 interviews before the killing of Osama bin Laden, with 503 afterward. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points.  Results from interviews conducted before the announcement of bin Laden’s death are in parentheses.

  • Donald Trump,  Jon Huntsman,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee Lead – Palin and Trump = Not So Much

    According to the latest Quinnipiac National Poll.

    By healthy margins, American voters say they would consider or be enthusiastic about backing former governors Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee for president, but 58 percent would never support Sarah Palin or Donald Trump, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

    No surprise here.

    Sarah Palin and Donald Trump will NOT be candidates, in any case.

    The race will either be Huckabee Vs. Romney Vs. Daniels or Huckabee Vs. Romney Vs. Pawlenty. And, Jon Huntsman will be in the mix somewhere.

  • Donald Trump,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 Florida GOP Poll Watch: Romney 26% Huckabee 12% Gingrich 11% Palin 9%

    According to the latest ARG Poll.

    This is the third poll in less than a month that has been especially favorable for Mitt Romney. Here is the other poll.

    With Romney having a virtual lock on New Hampshire and Nevada, and him polling well in Pennsylvania and Arizona is Romney setting himslef up as the front runner?


    And, what affect will this Florida polling have on a possible Mitch Daniels or even Mike Hucakbee’s candidacy?

    A good day for Mitt Romney.

  • Donald Trump,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitch Daniels,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 Arizona Poll Watch: Mitt Romney 48% Vs. Barack Obama 44%

    According to the latest PPP Poll.

    Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:

    • President Barack Obama – 46% Vs. 50%

    Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

    • Newt Gingrich – 26% Vs. 59%
    • Mike Huckabee – 35% Vs. 48%
    • Sarah Palin – 32% Vs. 62%
    • Mitt Romney – 45% Vs. 37%
    • Donald Trump – 24% Vs. 66%

    Interesting that Mitt Romney is the only GOP candidate in positive favorable territory.

    General election Head to Head:

    • Barack Obama – 47% Vs. Newt Gingrich – 40%
    • Barack Obama – 46% Vs. Mike Huckabee – 44%
    • Barack Obama – 49% Vs. Sarah Palin – 38%
    • Mitt Romney – 48% Vs. Barack Obama – 44%
    • Barack Obama – 48% Vs. Donald Trump – 36%

    Again, only Mitt Romney leads President Obama. This is the third state in the last month, including Nevada and Pennsylvania that Romney is the ONLY Republican beating Obama.

    There has been speculation that Sarah Palin may move from Alaska to Arizona. But, she would not receive a warm welcome as only 27% say they would like her to move to Arizona, whereas 57% hope she stays away. 16% don’t offer an opinion.

    Again, it seems Arizona voters are unhappy with the GOP Field. Will the addition of Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels make a difference? Or is Mitt Romney good enough?

    The entire poll is here.

  • Donald Trump,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Romney 19% Huckabee 17% Palin 9% Trump 8% Gingrich 7% Paul 7%

    According to the latest Fox News Poll.

    With the Republican field for the 2012 presidential nomination still in flux, the two major candidates who ran for president in 2008 — Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee — receive the most backing among GOP voters nationally.

    Romney garners the support of 19 percent of Republicans and Huckabee 17 percent, according to a Fox News poll released Thursday. The next group of candidates is bunched together: Sarah Palin at nine percent, Donald Trump at eight percent, and Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul receive seven percent a piece.

    Earlier this month, Huckabee was at 15 percent among Republican voters, Romney 14 percent, Palin 12 percent, Trump 11 percent and Gingrich 7 percent (April 3-5).

    Among voters who consider themselves part of the Tea Party movement, Huckabee (19 percent) and Romney (17 percent) are still the top two choices, followed by Palin (10 percent) and Trump (10 percent). No other contenders receive double-digit support.

    The GOP Primary:

    • Mitt Romney – 19%
    • Mike Huckabee – 17%
    • Sarah Palin – 9%
    • Donald Trump – 8%
    • Newt Gingrich – 7%
    • Ron Paul – 7%

    The entire poll is here.

    The poll was taken Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday nights, so some interviews were conducted before and some were after the president released his birth certificate.

    The Fox News poll is based on landline and cell phone interviews with 911 randomly chosen registered voters nationwide and was conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) from April 25 to April 27. For the total sample, it has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

  • Donald Trump,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012 Nevada GOP Poll Watch: Romney 24% Trump 16% Gingrich 11% Huckabee 10%

    According to the latest PPP Poll.

    Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

    • Mitt Romney – 64% Vs. 23%
    • Mike Huckabee – 61% Vs. 26%
    • Newt Gingrich – 61% Vs. 21%
    • Sarah Palin – 65% Vs. 26%
    • Donald Trump – 47% Vs. 40%

    But, Mitt Romney’s lead is declining as Donald Trump has entered the field.

    Mitt Romney continues to be the early favorite to win the Republican race in Nevada next year, as he did in 2008. But his support in the state is on the decline, suggesting he may not be able to take a repeat victory for granted.

    This is the fourth look we’ve taken at the GOP contest in Nevada and Romney’s support there has been on a steady decline. Last July he was at 34% in the state and he maintained that 34% standing in an October poll of Republican voters. But in January he dropped to 31% and now he’s at this 24% level. It’s no coincidence that Romney’s loss of support coincides with Pawlenty vaulting from 1% in January to now 8% in the Nevada polling. The two appeal to a similar type of voter and generally any time we’ve seen Pawlenty gain we’ve seen a corresponding Romney fall.

    Mitt Romney has to be considered the favorite in the Nevada caucuses. He is Mormon and there is a large population of LDS voters who WILL march to the caucuses to vote for one of their own. Donald Trump will fade as the weeks meander towards summer.

    The GOP Caucus preference:

    • Romney – 24%
    • Trump – 16%
    • Gingrich – 11%
    • Huckabee 10%
    • Palin – 8%
    • Pawlenty – 8%
    • Bachmann – 7%
    • Paul – 5%

    Yeah, I would be shocked if Romney did not win Nevada. 

    So, let’s see how it breaks out:

    • Iowa = Huckabee (if he runs)
    • New Hampshire = Romney (but by how much?)
    • Nevada = Romney
    • South Carolina = Huckabee (if he runs)
    • Florida (where the real race starts)
    • Super Tuesday – ?

    The entire poll is here.