Donald Trump,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin,  Tim Pawlenty

President 2012 Nevada GOP Poll Watch: Romney 24% Trump 16% Gingrich 11% Huckabee 10%

According to the latest PPP Poll.

Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

  • Mitt Romney – 64% Vs. 23%
  • Mike Huckabee – 61% Vs. 26%
  • Newt Gingrich – 61% Vs. 21%
  • Sarah Palin – 65% Vs. 26%
  • Donald Trump – 47% Vs. 40%

But, Mitt Romney’s lead is declining as Donald Trump has entered the field.

Mitt Romney continues to be the early favorite to win the Republican race in Nevada next year, as he did in 2008. But his support in the state is on the decline, suggesting he may not be able to take a repeat victory for granted.

This is the fourth look we’ve taken at the GOP contest in Nevada and Romney’s support there has been on a steady decline. Last July he was at 34% in the state and he maintained that 34% standing in an October poll of Republican voters. But in January he dropped to 31% and now he’s at this 24% level. It’s no coincidence that Romney’s loss of support coincides with Pawlenty vaulting from 1% in January to now 8% in the Nevada polling. The two appeal to a similar type of voter and generally any time we’ve seen Pawlenty gain we’ve seen a corresponding Romney fall.

Mitt Romney has to be considered the favorite in the Nevada caucuses. He is Mormon and there is a large population of LDS voters who WILL march to the caucuses to vote for one of their own. Donald Trump will fade as the weeks meander towards summer.

The GOP Caucus preference:

  • Romney – 24%
  • Trump – 16%
  • Gingrich – 11%
  • Huckabee 10%
  • Palin – 8%
  • Pawlenty – 8%
  • Bachmann – 7%
  • Paul – 5%

Yeah, I would be shocked if Romney did not win Nevada. 

So, let’s see how it breaks out:

  • Iowa = Huckabee (if he runs)
  • New Hampshire = Romney (but by how much?)
  • Nevada = Romney
  • South Carolina = Huckabee (if he runs)
  • Florida (where the real race starts)
  • Super Tuesday – ?

The entire poll is here.