• Marco Rubio,  Mitt Romney,  Paul Ryan,  Tim Pawlenty

    Has Mitt Romney Selected His Vice President?

    Matt Drudge is pushing this New York Times piece that says that Mitt Romney has selected his Vice Presidential running mate and that he may announce his decision this week.

    After a short-lived presidential bid of his own last year, Mr. Pawlenty is again being considered for the Republican ticket. His fate is in the hands of Mr. Romney, a rival-turned-friend, who is on the cusp of announcing his vice-presidential selection. Mr. Romney has reached a decision, his friends believe, and he may disclose it as soon as this week.

    Mitt would be making a BIG mistake if he chooses former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty.

    Pawlenty is boring on the campaign trail, was Governor of a “Blue” state (with no hope to win in 2012) and, well, is not distinguishable in any sense of the word.

    Look at who is leading in the Drudge Report poll:

    Almost any of the candidates would be better than Tim Pawlenty.

    Florida Senator Marco Rubio would be my first choice with Rep.aul Ryan in second.

    What say you, Mitt?

    If you want to win the Presidency, select either Rubio or Ryan. Even, Condi Rice would be a better choice.

  • President 2012,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012: Tim Pawlenty Drops Out of Republican Race for 2012 – So What?

    Republican Presidential Candidate Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty speaks during the Iowa Republican Party’s Straw Poll, Saturday, Aug. 13, 2011, in Ames, Iowa

    The former Minnesota Governor really never was in the race.

    Tim Pawlenty, the former governor of Minnesota, dropped his bid for the Republican nomination for president on Sunday morning, saying his disappointing performance in Iowa’s straw poll convinced him that his campaign had run its course.

    Just hours after his third-place finish in Iowa, Mr. Pawlenty said on ABC’s “This Week” program that his message “didn’t get the kind of traction we needed and hoped for” in order to continue.

    “There are a lot of other choices in the race,” he said. “The audience, so to speak, was looking for something different.”

    Mr. Pawlenty informed his supporters on a conference call Sunday morning before his television appearance that he was ending his candidacy. He thanked his supporters in the call, two participants said, but acknowledged that he had decided overnight that his candidacy could not proceed.

    Just NO gravitas as a leader.

    The race is now between Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry.

  • Michele Bachmann,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012 Iowa GOP Poll Watch: Bachmann 25% Vs Romney 21% Vs Pawlenty 9%

    According to the latest TIR Poll.

    Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann has surpassed former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney in a recent Iowa poll that was conducted by TheIowaRepublican.com.  With Bachmann now leading in Iowa, Romney has fallen to second place, but he is still well ahead of third place finisher Tim Pawlenty, who has overtaken Herman Cain my a miniscule margin.

    Bachmann received support from 25 percent of likely Iowa caucus goers in the poll, while Romney is backed by 21 percent.  The poll also shows signs of growth for former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, who now stands in third place in statistical tie with Herman Cain at just under nine percent.  Ron Paul finished with six percent, Newt Gingrich with four percent, Rick Santorum with two percent, and Jon Huntsman rounded out the field with one percent.

    Bachmann’s campaign has taken off like a rocket since participating and announcing her presidential intentions during the CNN debate in New Hampshire last month.  Here in Iowa, Bachmann has been playing up her Iowa roots.  She officially announced her candidacy in Waterloo, the town in which she was born and spent her formative years.  The night before she made her announcement, Bachmann’s campaign hosted a rally for 500 locals who came to welcome her home.

    While Bachmann’s lead over Romney is just within the margin of error, the poll’s cross tabs show how much momentum her campaign has generated in Iowa.  Her favorability is ten points higher than Romney’s, who had the second highest number in that category.  Her unfavorable figure is 14 points lower than Romney’s, giving her a stellar plus 65 favorability margin.  Her numbers suggest that Bachmann has found a very effective way to appeal to caucus goers.

    The conventional wisdom is that Michele Bachmann will win the Iowa Caucuses and that Romney (who is not contesting Iowa) will finish second or third. Then, Romney who has a commanding lead in the New Hampshire polls will win there.

    The only question will whether Tim Pawlenty can finish a close second to Bachmann or whether he will finish a distant third. In all reality, should Pawlenty finish third in Iowa, his campaign may be over.

  • Michele Bachmann,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Ron Paul,  Rudy Giuliani,  Sarah Palin,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012 New Hampshire GOP Poll Watch: Michele Bachmann Now in Second Place to Mitt Romney

    According to the latest Suffolk University Poll.

    While former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney remains a front-runner in New Hampshire, Michele Bachmann climbed 8 points since May, to 11 percent, according to a Suffolk University/7NEWS (WHDH TV) poll of likely voters in New Hampshire’s GOP presidential primary.

    Bachmann’s gain was more than that of any other candidate. Romney, with 36 percent support, gained 1 point since Suffolk University’s last Granite State poll was released nearly two months ago.

    GOP Primary election:

    • Mitt Romney – 36%
    • Michele Bachmann – 11%
    • Ron Paul – 8%
    • Rudy Giuliani – 5%
    • Sarah Paln – 4%
    • Jon Huntsman – 4%
    • Tim Pawlenty – 2%
    • Newt Gingrich – 2%

    Michele Bachmann distinguished herself in he Manchester, New Hampshire debate a few weeks ago and it is paying her dividends in the polls.

    Among those who watched the Republican Presidential debate in Manchester earlier this month, 33 percent said Romney won the debate, while 31 percent gave the win to Bachmann.

  • Michele Bachmann,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012 Oregon GOP Poll Watch: Without Sarah Palin in the Race Michele Bachmann Leads in Oregon

    According to the latest PPP Poll.

    GOP Primary election with Sarah Palin as a candidate:

    • Mitt  Romney – 28%
    • Michele Bachmann – 18%
    • Sarah Palin – 16%
    • Ron Paul – 9%
    • Herman Cain – 8%
    • Tim Pawlenty – 6%
    • Newt Gingrich – 6%
    • Jon Huntsman – 0%

    GOP Primary election without Sarah Palin as a candidate:

    • Mitt  Romney – 28%
    • Michele Bachmann – 29%
    • Ron Paul – 10%
    • Herman Cain – 7%
    • Tim Pawlenty – 6%
    • Newt Gingrich – 9%
    • Jon Huntsman – 2%

    Michele Bachmann is polling well in Oregon and this poll and in other states are being referred to as the Bachmann “Surge.” The LEFT is sure picking on Michele with “gotcha moments” with everything she says.

    I guess they can read the polls too.

    After a well received debate performance, Michele Bachmann has surged forward. Before the debate, Bachmann garnered 8% nationally; but she has more than doubled this level of support in the three states PPP has polled the primary since the debate. However, if Sarah Palin runs, this isn’t enough to claim the lead in Oregon. Mitt Romney takes the lead with 28%, followed by Bachmann with 18%, Palin with 16%, Ron Paul with 9%, Herman Cain with 8%, Newt Gingrich and Tim Pawlenty with 6%, and Jon Huntsman with 0% support. 

    If Palin does not run, Bachmann is the clear choice of Palin’s supporters while Romney picks up an insignificant share. Bachmann leads with 29% to Romney’s 28%, Paul’s 10%, Gingrich’s 9%, Cain’s 7%, Pawlenty’s 6%, and Huntsman’s 2%. Bachmann’s strength lies in her appeal to very conservative voters who make up 44% of GOP voters in Oregon. If Palin runs, Bachmann wins very conservatives with 24% to Romney’s 22%. This margin is expanded to a 37-26 lead without Palin. 

  • Herman Cain,  Michele Bachmann,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012 Iowa GOP Poll Watch: Romney 23% Vs Bachmann 22% Vs. Cain 10%

    Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney

    According to the latest Des Moines Register Iowa Poll.

    Two-time candidate Mitt Romney and tea party upstart Michele Bachmann are neck and neck leading the pack, and retired pizza chief Herman Cain is in third place in a new Des Moines Register Iowa Poll of likely participants in the state’s Republican presidential caucuses.

    The results are bad news for the earnest Tim Pawlenty, a former Minnesota governor who is in single digits despite a full-throttle campaign.

    Romney, a former Massachusetts governor and business executive, claims 23 percent, and Bachmann, a Minnesota congresswoman and evangelical conservative, garners 22 percent. Neither has done heavy lifting in Iowa.

    The rest of the Republican field is at least 12 points behind them.

    As, I have said for the past few weeks, this race is boiling down to one between Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann. The only wild cards in the race are whether Texas Governor Rick Perry will run and of course, what Sarah Palin will do. Palin is traveling to Iowa this week for the debut of her documentary.

  • Michele Bachmann,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Bachmann and Pawlenty Gaining in GOP Field?

    Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., speaks in St. Paul, Minnesota on June 18, 2011

    Yes, according to the latest AP-GfK Poll.

    • Republicans still give Romney the highest favorability rating among announced candidates, at 61 percent. Palin, who’s keeping everyone guessing about her intentions, is holding steady, too, with a 63 percent favorability rating.
    • Bachmann’s favorability rating jumped from 41 percent to 54 percent among Republicans. A third still have no opinion about her, and it’s too soon to tell if her boost will endure or was a June phenomenon.
    • Huntsman, who announced his candidacy this week but still is relatively unknown nationally, had a 23 percent favorability rating among Republicans. He’s gotten better known — 59 percent had no opinion about him in the latest poll, down slightly from 66 percent a month earlier. But the result was an increase in those with an unfavorable opinion, from 11 percent to 17 percent, with a greater uptick among tea party supporters.
    • Pawlenty, one of the first to get into the race, saw his favorable ratings rise 10 percentage points to 43 percent. His support among tea party backers was up 11 points.

    The poll was conducted June 16-20 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and cellphone interviews with 1,001 adults nationwide and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. The survey included 429 Republicans, and that subset had a larger, 6.2 percentage point margin of error.

    This is a national poll and still has Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin as the leaders.

    Michele Bachmann and Tim Pawlenty are gaining in favorability because they are becoming better known.

    I want to see the polling with Sarah Palin out of the race and Rick Perry in, but we will have to wait for these match-ups until toward the end of summer.

  • Herman Cain,  Michele Bachmann,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012,  Ron Paul,  Sarah Palin,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Romney 27% Palin 16% Cain 9% Paul 7% Pawlenty 6%

    According to the latest Gallup Poll.

    Republicans’ support for Mitt Romney as their party’s 2012 presidential nominee has increased significantly to 24%, compared with 17% in late May. As a result, Romney has widened his advantage over Sarah Palin in the latest update on rank-and-file Republicans’ nomination preferences.

    Going into tonight’s first GOP Presidential debate (without Sarah Palin in the field, by the way), Mitt Romney clearly is the front-runner for the GOP nomination. Unless another candidate emerges, the path to the GOP nomination should be Romney’s to lose.

    These results are based on a June 8-11 USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted on the eve of a candidate debate in New Hampshire that will be the first to include some of the better-known candidates.

    Romney appears to have gotten a boost in recent weeks after the official announcement of his candidacy. Gallup’s prior update of May 20-24 came just after former co-leaders Mike Huckabee and Donald Trump announced they were not candidates for the nomination; that poll showed Romney and Palin in a virtual tie. Since then, Romney’s support has increased and Palin’s has been flat, leaving Romney with an eight-percentage-point advantage.

    That is the largest numerical lead Gallup has measured for any candidate since it first began measuring nomination preferences in September. In that initial September poll, Romney held a seven-point advantage over the field of candidates. Romney or Huckabee held slim margins of no more than four points in subsequent polls.

    No candidate besides Romney has shown a significant increase in support since the May update, though Rick Santorum, who also recently announced his official candidacy, saw his support rise from 2% to 6%. Meanwhile, support for Newt Gingrich, whose campaign has been off to a rocky start since his official announcement last month, is now at 5%, a slight decline since May. The high point for Gingrich was 13% in November.

    And, Romney’s lead over the field expands with Sarah Palin out of the field.

    Let’s look at the graph:

    Note with Sarah Palin gone, Michele Bachmann does not rise substantially in the polls with Palin voters being redistributed throughout the field. However, Bachmann will stick in Iowa and be able to gain momentum there. Whereas, this is a national poll.

    What are the demographics of the GOP voters?

    The graph:

    So, what does this all mean?

    Mitt Romney is the early front-runner and the only challenger who is close in the polls is Sarah Palin, who has not decided whether to run or not. A number of candidates remain in the field but their chances of winning the nomination appear remote.

    Perhaps tonight’s GOP Presidential debate will deliver some momentum to the third and fourth tier candidates. But, I doubt it. This race is Romney’s to win or lose.

    Romney may be emerging as a front-runner in a GOP race that has been characterized to date by its lack of a leading candidate. Republican nomination contests usually have a clear front-runner, and that candidate often goes on to win. But that did not hold true in the last presidential election cycle, when Rudy Giuliani led in national preference polls throughout 2007 but performed poorly in the actual nominating contests in 2008. Additionally, even if Romney were to expand his lead into the double digits in the coming months, he still would rate as one of the weakest Republican front-runners in recent GOP nominating history.

    Romney remains behind lesser-known candidates Cain and Bachmann in Gallup’s measure of positive intensity toward candidates, though his score seems to be on the rise.

    Whether Romney is actually assuming the mantle of the front-runner will be clear in future polls. The current results could be a short-term bounce due to increased attention paid to his campaign after his official entry into the race, or could indicate a more lasting shift in preferences that has put him in the top position in the GOP field.

  • Herman Cain,  Michele Bachmann,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Rudy Giuliani,  Sarah Palin,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012 Poll Watch: Romney 49% Vs. Obama 46%

    According to the latest Washington Post-ABC News Poll.

    The public opinion boost President Obama received after the killing of Osama bin Laden has dissipated, and Americans’ disapproval of how he is handling the nation’s economy and the deficit has reached new highs, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

    The survey portrays a broadly pessimistic mood in the country this spring as higher gasoline prices, sliding home values and a disappointing employment picture have raised fresh concerns about the pace of the economic recovery.

    By 2 to 1, Americans say the country is pretty seriously on the wrong track, and nine in 10 continue to rate the economy in negative terms. Nearly six in 10 say the economy has not started to recover, regardless of what official statistics may say, and most of those who say it has improved rate the recovery as weak.

    New Post-ABC numbers show Obama leading five of six potential Republican presidential rivals tested in the poll. But he is in a dead heat with former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, who formally announced his 2012 candidacy last week, making jobs and the economy the central issues in his campaign.

    Again, this is a national poll, so take it with a grain of salt. We all know that it is the election in key battleground states that really matter.

    Mitt Romney is leading President Obama, 49% to 46% among registered voters but it is within the margin of error, so it is not statistically relevant, although it does point out Obama’s vulnerability. The other GOP candidates do not fair as well as Mitt Romney (see the graphic above).

    GOP Primary election:

    • Romney – 21% (16%, 4/172011)
    • Palin – 17% (5%)
    • Giuliani – 8% (NA)
    • Gingrich – 6% (2%)
    • Paul – 6% (2%)
    • Pawlenty – 4% (1%)
    • Cain – 4% (NA)
    • Bachmann – 3% (1%)
    • None of the above – 5% (12%)

    Well, Mitt Romney is polling the best against Obama but it is uncertain as to whether he can win in the GOP nomination race. It is also uncertain whether Sarah Palin or Rudy Giuliani will run.

    My best guess, is that should Sarah Palin decide to roll the dice and run, that Rudy Giuliani will also enter the race. Rudy will count on the divisiveness of a Romney Vs. Palin contest, while he easily wins  East and West Coast Republican primary elections and delegates. He might also figure a deal with Romney to defeat Palin. A wild card in all of this will be Michele Bachmann who will run strong in the Iowa Caucus and may gather some momentum going into South Carolina.

    So, what does this all mean?

    The economy is weak, voters do not think it is improving, Obama is in trouble and the GOP Presidential field while hopeful, is uncertain, with no front runner.

    The entire poll is here.

  • Herman Cain,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012 Iowa Poll Watch: Obama 49% Vs. Romney 40%, Obama 55% Vs. Palin 35%

    Electoral College vote map of Larry Sabato

    According to the latest PPP Poll.

    Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:

    • President Barack Obama – 49% Vs. 46%

    Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

    • Newt Gingrich – 19% vs. 63%
    • Sarah Palin – 29% Vs. 63%
    • Mitt Romney – 35% Vs. 47%
    • Tim Pawlenty – 25% Vs. 41%
    • Herman Cain – 20% vs. 40%

    General Election Head to Head:

    • Obama – 54% Vs. Gingrich – 33%
    • Obama – 55% Vs. Palin – 35%
    • Obama – 49% Vs. Romney – 40%
    • Obama – 49% Vs. Pawlenty – 37%
    • Obama – 50% Vs. Cain – 32%

    Although President Obama is doing better in Iowa than the past polling period, his job approval ratings still lag. Obviously, Iowa voters are not happy with the current GOP Presidential field and they all perform less than John McCain in 2008.

    When PPP polled Iowa in mid-April Barack Obama had negative approval numbers, was tied with Mike Huckabee, and led Mitt Romney by only 4 points in a state that he won by 10 points against John McCain in 2008. Now six weeks later Obama’s fortunes in the state have shifted dramatically, symbolizing the uptick in his political fortunes we’ve seen throughout the country in the month since the killing of Osama bin Laden. He now has positive approval numbers, doesn’t have to worry about Huckabee anymore, and has built his lead over Romney to a 9 point margin similar to what he won the last time around.

    Also, Iowa is NOT considered by many to be a KEY battleground state that the GOP will need to beat Obama in the Electoral College. See the list here.

    Obama’s approval numbers in Iowa aren’t that strong and it would certainly be premature to declare 17 months out from the election that he’ll win the state again. But the numbers here are another reminder that the weak Republican field is his greatest ally as he moves toward reelection, and that the GOP will have to come up with a stronger candidate to have a serious chance of defeating Obama next year.

    The entire poll is here.