Herman CainMichele BachmannMitt RomneyNewt GingrichPollingPresident 2012Rudy GiulianiSarah PalinTim Pawlenty

President 2012 Poll Watch: Romney 49% Vs. Obama 46%



According to the latest Washington Post-ABC News Poll.
The public opinion boost President Obama received after the killing of Osama bin Laden has dissipated, and Americans’ disapproval of how he is handling the nation’s economy and the deficit has reached new highs, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

The survey portrays a broadly pessimistic mood in the country this spring as higher gasoline prices, sliding home values and a disappointing employment picture have raised fresh concerns about the pace of the economic recovery.

By 2 to 1, Americans say the country is pretty seriously on the wrong track, and nine in 10 continue to rate the economy in negative terms. Nearly six in 10 say the economy has not started to recover, regardless of what official statistics may say, and most of those who say it has improved rate the recovery as weak.

New Post-ABC numbers show Obama leading five of six potential Republican presidential rivals tested in the poll. But he is in a dead heat with former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, who formally announced his 2012 candidacy last week, making jobs and the economy the central issues in his campaign.

Again, this is a national poll, so take it with a grain of salt. We all know that it is the election in key battleground states that really matter.

Mitt Romney is leading President Obama, 49% to 46% among registered voters but it is within the margin of error, so it is not statistically relevant, although it does point out Obama’s vulnerability. The other GOP candidates do not fair as well as Mitt Romney (see the graphic above).

GOP Primary election:

  • Romney – 21% (16%, 4/172011)
  • Palin – 17% (5%)
  • Giuliani – 8% (NA)
  • Gingrich – 6% (2%)
  • Paul – 6% (2%)
  • Pawlenty – 4% (1%)
  • Cain – 4% (NA)
  • Bachmann – 3% (1%)
  • None of the above – 5% (12%)

Well, Mitt Romney is polling the best against Obama but it is uncertain as to whether he can win in the GOP nomination race. It is also uncertain whether Sarah Palin or Rudy Giuliani will run.

My best guess, is that should Sarah Palin decide to roll the dice and run, that Rudy Giuliani will also enter the race. Rudy will count on the divisiveness of a Romney Vs. Palin contest, while he easily wins  East and West Coast Republican primary elections and delegates. He might also figure a deal with Romney to defeat Palin. A wild card in all of this will be Michele Bachmann who will run strong in the Iowa Caucus and may gather some momentum going into South Carolina.

So, what does this all mean?

The economy is weak, voters do not think it is improving, Obama is in trouble and the GOP Presidential field while hopeful, is uncertain, with no front runner.

The entire poll is here.