The Morning Flap: February 20, 2013
U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., listens to a question during a town hall, Tuesday, Feb. 19, 2013, in Sun Lakes, Ariz. McCain defended his proposed immigration overhaul to an angry crowd in suburban Arizona in the latest sign that this border state will play a prominent role in the national immigration reform debate AP (Photo/Matt York)
These are my news headlines for February 20th:
- Obama’s sequestration strategy: Shame
- Anti-austerity strike to bring Greece to a standstill
- John Boehner: The President Is Raging Against a Budget Crisis He Created
- New Jersey Poll: Hillary Clinton edges out Chris Christie
- Despite Controversy, Hagel’s Archives Sealed Shut
- Tea partier weighs Mitch McConnell race
- Video: President Obama Speaks Out of Both Sides of Mouth on Sequester – Flap’s Blog – Video: President Obama Speaks Out of Both Sides of Mouth on Sequester #tcot
- McCain defends immigration plan to angry residents – During a heated town hall gathering in the Phoenix suburb of Sun Lakes, McCain said the border near Yuma is largely secure, but he said smugglers are using the border near Tucson to pump drugs into Phoenix. He said immigration reform should be contingent on better border security that must rely largely on technology able to detect border crossings.McCain said a tamper-proof Social Security card would help combat identity fraud, and noted any path to citizenship must require immigrants to learn English, cover back taxes and pay fines for breaking immigration laws.”There are 11 million people living here illegally,” he said. “We are not going to get enough buses to deport them.”
Some audience members shouted out their disapproval.
One man yelled that only guns would discourage illegal immigration. Another man complained that illegal immigrants should never be able to become citizens or vote. A third man said illegal immigrants were illiterate invaders who wanted free government benefits.
- Gingrich-less, super PAC is back – The super PAC that raised nearly $24 million to power Newt Gingrich into the White House is rebranding itself as a booster of the conservative ground game and, possibly, 2014 GOP Senate candidates.Only this time around, Winning Our Future won’t have the key piece of its brand — Gingrich, who isn’t at all involved in the super PAC.
- House Democrats Cash In With Online Fundraising Program – It’s usually easier to bring in big bucks when your party holds the speaker’s gavel. But last cycle, House Democrats crushed their competitors thanks to a dramatic spike in online fundraising.In the 2010 cycle, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee raised $14.6 million online; in 2012 it took in $49.3 million — a total representing one-third of its revenue. In the previous two cycles, online donations accounted for 5 percent to 9 percent of the DCCC’s total haul, according to DCCC fundraising figures provided exclusively to CQ Roll Call.The online boom more than leveled the fundraising playing field for the minority party, allowing the campaign arm to raise $28 million more than its GOP counterparts last cycle.
- Marco Rubio: The Electable Conservative? – Some commentators have expressed surprise upon learning about the very conservative voting record of Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, who delivered the Republican response to the State of the Union address last week.Since winning his Senate seat, Mr. Rubio has generally sided with other Republicans as part of a party that has steadily grown more conservative over the last three decades. (Mr. Rubio’s recent support for immigration reform is more of an exception than his usual rule of sticking to the party line.)Being reliably conservative, however, is hardly a liability for someone who might hope to win the Republican presidential nomination in 2016. Indeed, one reason to watch Mr. Rubio carefully is that, among the candidates who will be deemed reliably conservative by Republican voters and insiders, he may stand the best chance of maintaining a reasonably good image with general election voters.
How does Mr. Rubio’s conservatism compare to the other men and women who might seek the Republican nomination in 2016 — and to other candidates, like Mitt Romney, that the G.O.P. has nominated recently?
- Video: Chris Christie Says HE Doesn’t Agree with Cuomo 98 Per Cent of the Time – Flap’s Blog – Video: Chris Christie Says HE Doesn’t Agree with Cuomo 98 Per Cent of the Time #tcot
- The California Flap: February 19, 2013 – Flap’s California Blog – The California Flap: February 19, 2013
- N.J. Gov. Christie in La Jolla, Romney sons join the party | UTSanDiego.com – N.J. Gov. Christie in La Jolla, Romney sons join the party
- California inmates renew demands – latimes.com – California inmates renew demands
- Jerry Buss dies at 80; Lakers owner brought ‘Showtime’ success to L.A. – latimes.com – Jerry Buss dies at 80; Lakers owner brought ‘Showtime’ success to L.A.
- California’s Tobacco Control Program generates huge health care savings, study shows – California’s Tobacco Control Program generates huge health care savings, study shows #tcot
- States worry about rate shock during shift to new health law – Los Angeles Times – States worry about rate shock during shift to new health law #tcot
- When to Retire a Running Shoe – NYTimes.com – When to Retire a Running Shoe #tcot
- The Morning Flap: February 19, 2013 – Flap’s Blog – The Morning Flap: February 19, 2013 #tcot
Day By Day January 18, 2013 – Not Keeping up with the Joneses
Chris, it looks to me that the House GOP Leadership would rather revert to the GOP of Rep. Bob Michel rather than fight a principled battle.
The Democrats controlled the House for forty years until Newt Gingrich had the intestinal fortitude to devise the Contract With America.
Think it is time for a new contract?
President 2012: State of the GOP RaceMitt Romney had a big night last night (Super Tuesday Eve) winning 6 of 10 races but….
Mitt Romney eked out a win in Ohio over Rick Santorum which, when coupled with victories for the former Massachusetts governor in Vermont, Massachusetts, Virginia and Idaho, ensured that he would remain the frontrunner for the Republican nomination heading out of Super Tuesday.
And, Romney leads in the actual Republican Party delegate count.
A few more “bad nights” like Super Tuesday and Mitt Romney will be the Republican presidential nominee. With his haul from yesterday, according to AP, Romney now has 415 delegates, Rick Santorum 176, Newt Gingrich 105, and Ron Paul 47 out of the 1,144 needed for the GOP nomination.
To be the frontrunner, you need to kill the frontrunner. And like a poor marksman—or at least an underfunded one—Santorum keeps missing the target. First Michigan, now Ohio. Online betting market Intrade gives Romney a 90% chance of being the GOP nominee. Of course, no one has a mathematical lock on the nomination yet. The fight will continue.
Mitt Romney has not closed the door on Newt, Santorum or Paul. They all will continue in the race and probably draw enough votes and delegates to deny Mitt Romney the 1,144 needed to win the Presidential nomination.
It’s far from over. Despite claiming six state wins last night and upping his delegate count to 404, Mitt Romney still does not have a lock on the nomination—or even a clear path to claiming it if his opponents don’t leave the field.
Consider this: if Mitt wins every remaining all-or-nothing state but one, and half of the remaining proportional delegates, he would likely still fall short of the magic nomination number of 1,144—which would force him to rely on unpledged delegates, the Republican version of the infamous Democratic super-delegates in 2008, to claim his party’s mantle.
After last night’s election results the chances of a “brokered Republican convention” have increased and the nomination of a candidate, like Jeb Bush, Mitch Daniels or Bobby Jindal. This will probably not be a bad thing, especially looking at certain polls.
However, if Rick Santorum can beat Newt Gingrich in the upcoming Alabama and Mississippi primary elections, it is possible that Gingrich will quit the race. Santo would then compete one on one with Romney. Santorum might be able to beat Mitt or vice versa. Perhaps they just divide up the remaining delegates.
Should Gingrich prove obstinate and stay in the race (no matter what), it is very likely that NO candidate will have the 1,144 needed on the first nomination ballot. Then, hold onto your hats for backroom deals and the emergence of a “NEW” candidate.
SNL Parodies of Clint Eastwood’s Half Time in America Are Really StupidIt’s Halftime in America. And our second half is about to begin. All that matters now is looking ahead and finding a way forward.The first one below is for the third quarter and calls Rick Santorum a “PUSSY” – real mature NBC.
This second one is for the fourth quarter and talks about Newt Gingrich having a big head = more name calling.
The third one, I won’t even bother, since it is just nonsense.
I understand this is supposed to be comedy, but this exercise like many over there at NBC just seem to be simple name calling of Republican POLS. Where is your parody of Obama, Lorne?
President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Trouble Ahead for Romney After Florida?
Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney calls voters, as he is seated with volunteers, Tuesday, Jan. 31, 2012, at his campaign office in Tampa, FloridaApparently so, according to new polls.
Mitt Romney’s headed for a big victory in Florida today but new PPP polls in Missouri and Ohio find the road ahead might be a little bit tougher for him, especially if Newt Gingrich or Rick Santorum drops out of the race and leaves a single conservative alternative.
Rick Santorum is leading the way for next week’s ‘beauty contest’ primary in Missouri with 45% to 34% for Romney, and 13% for Ron Paul. Newt Gingrich is not on the ballot for that, but he will be in the picture for Missouri’s caucus and leads the way for that with 30% to 28% for Santorum, 24% for Romney, and 11% for Paul.
In Ohio Gingrich is at 26% to 25% for Romney, 22% for Santorum, and 11% for Paul.
What might be most interesting in both states is what happens in a head to head between Romney and either Gingrich or Santorum:
- In Missouri Santorum leads Romney 50-37 and in Ohio Santorum leads 45-38.
- In Missouri Gingrich leads Romney 43-42 and in Ohio Gingrich leads 42-39.
My guess is that Rick Santorum may be prevailed upon to drop out after a while – or simply run out of money. Newt Gingrich has a sugar daddy in Las Vegas and says he will go on to the summer Republican Convention.
A one on one race with Romney is what Newt wants. But, will he get it in time?
This race is NOT over today with a Romney win – no matter how big the victory is.
The results of the polls are here.
President 2012 Poll Watch: Romney Viewed as More Presidential Than GingrichAccording to the latest Gallup Poll.
Mitt Romney leads Newt Gingrich, 59% to 39%, in U.S. registered voters’ perceptions that each “has the personality and leadership qualities a president should have.” Romney also has solid advantages for being “sincere and authentic” and able to manage the government effectively. Romney and Gingrich are about tied, however, on understanding the problems Americans face in their daily lives.
These findings are based on registered voters nationally, according to a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted as part of Jan. 27-28 Gallup Daily tracking.
If GOP voters are looking at electability, it appears Romney has a definite edge in general election voter perceptions. Romney is perceived as sincere and Presdiential – Gingrich is NOT.
These are likely the reasons why in head to head general election polls, Romney is close or beating President Obama, whereas Gingrich trails.
President 2012 Video: Newt Gingrich Does Not Have a Conservative Ideological Core – Pat BuchananPat Buchanan: Gingrich is a Rockerfeller republican, political opportunist with no core beliefs
This is a big knife in the back of Newt Gingrich on the eve of the Florida GOP Primary election. With Ann Coulter and Elliott Abrams attacks of Gingrich, conservatives and Tea Party voters may very well be less enthused to vote for him.
Over the last week, several people that worked in the Reagan administration have come forward and countered former House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s claim that he is a “Reagan Republican.” These people say Gingrich “wasn’t on board with a lot of what President Ronald Reagan tried to accomplish during his two terms.”
And although that claim has been disputed by other Reagan administration officials, former Reagan communications director Pat Buchanan told “The McLaughlin Group” this weekend that Gingrich wasn’t seen favorably by those in the administration.
“[I]n the Reagan White House, Newt Gingrich was considered quite frankly by a lot of folks to be something of a political opportunist and who was not trusted and who had played no role whatsoever,” Buchanan said. “He was a Rockefeller Republican in the great Goldwater-Rockefeller battle, where conservatism came of age.”
There is little doubt that Gingrich Campaign will be able to survive after the Florida Primary tomorrow. However, the RIGHT is split as to whether Gingrich is the conservative alternative to Romney.
The nominee will either be Romney or somebody else, should Gingrich catch fire on Super Tuesday and win sufficient delegates to deny Romney a majority. With all of these conservative attacks on Gingrich, I doubt he can consolidate support within the GOP.
And, Mark Levin has this criticism of Pat Buchanan.
As I said, the RIGHT is split over the Newt Gingrich candidacy.
President 2012 Video: Herman Cain Endorses Newt GingrichFormer Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain endorsed his former rival Newt Gingrich at an event in West Palm Beach, Florida Saturday night. (Jan. 28)
This will probably not do too much for Newt Gingrich in Florida on Tuesday. But, Gingrich is now playing a delegate game with Romney, much like Ronald Reagain in 1976 against Gerald Ford. The difference is that Romney is not an incumbent President.
Herman Cain on the stump will help Gingrich in many states and bring along plenty of Tea Party supporters.
President 2012 Video: Sarah Palin Says Vote for Newt – Rage Against the Machine
Here is Sarah Palin yesterday on the Judge Jeanine Show urging conservatives to vote for Newt Gingrich.
Will it be enough in Florida?
Probably not, but Gingrich will go forward with a hard earned second place and will take his campaign to other states. When Santorum and/or Ron Paul drop out, he will hope a one on one contest with Romney will help him win sufficient delegates to at least tie up the nomination (deny Mitt Romney a delegate majority) until the convention.
President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Gingrich Maintaining National Poll Lead While Romney SlumpsAccording to the latest Gallup Poll.
Republican registered voters nationally continue to prefer Newt Gingrich over Mitt Romney for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination, with no sign in Gallup Daily tracking from Jan. 22-26 that Gingrich is giving back any of his recent gains.
The 32% of Republican voters now choosing Gingrich as the candidate they are most likely to support for the nomination is his highest level of support since the 2012 primary voting began in early January. The 24% supporting Romney is his lowest.
Despite the heavy media focus on the two front-runners, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum are each holding their own at just under 15%, putting the two men in a statistical tie for third.
It looks like the concentrated attacks of the GOP Establishment, including New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and former U.S. Senator Bob Dole have had little effect. It could also be that Mitt Romney just does not command that much support for himself.
Romney has pummeled Gingrich in Florida this past week with negative ads. Perhaps people just no longer respond to Romney’s negativity.
But, I suppose we will see what Florida voters do on Tuesday.