• Donald Trump,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012 Nevada GOP Poll Watch: Romney 24% Trump 16% Gingrich 11% Huckabee 10%

    According to the latest PPP Poll.

    Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

    • Mitt Romney – 64% Vs. 23%
    • Mike Huckabee – 61% Vs. 26%
    • Newt Gingrich – 61% Vs. 21%
    • Sarah Palin – 65% Vs. 26%
    • Donald Trump – 47% Vs. 40%

    But, Mitt Romney’s lead is declining as Donald Trump has entered the field.

    Mitt Romney continues to be the early favorite to win the Republican race in Nevada next year, as he did in 2008. But his support in the state is on the decline, suggesting he may not be able to take a repeat victory for granted.

    This is the fourth look we’ve taken at the GOP contest in Nevada and Romney’s support there has been on a steady decline. Last July he was at 34% in the state and he maintained that 34% standing in an October poll of Republican voters. But in January he dropped to 31% and now he’s at this 24% level. It’s no coincidence that Romney’s loss of support coincides with Pawlenty vaulting from 1% in January to now 8% in the Nevada polling. The two appeal to a similar type of voter and generally any time we’ve seen Pawlenty gain we’ve seen a corresponding Romney fall.

    Mitt Romney has to be considered the favorite in the Nevada caucuses. He is Mormon and there is a large population of LDS voters who WILL march to the caucuses to vote for one of their own. Donald Trump will fade as the weeks meander towards summer.

    The GOP Caucus preference:

    • Romney – 24%
    • Trump – 16%
    • Gingrich – 11%
    • Huckabee 10%
    • Palin – 8%
    • Pawlenty – 8%
    • Bachmann – 7%
    • Paul – 5%

    Yeah, I would be shocked if Romney did not win Nevada. 

    So, let’s see how it breaks out:

    • Iowa = Huckabee (if he runs)
    • New Hampshire = Romney (but by how much?)
    • Nevada = Romney
    • South Carolina = Huckabee (if he runs)
    • Florida (where the real race starts)
    • Super Tuesday – ?

    The entire poll is here.

  • Donald Trump,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 Poll Watch: Romney 46% Vs. Obama 43%

    According to the latest PPP Poll.

    Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:

    • President Barack Obama – 45% Vs. 52%

    Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

    • Mitt Romney – 43% Vs. 43%
    • Mike Huckabee – 36% Vs. 45%
    • Newt Gingrich – 33% Vs. 53%
    • Sarah Palin – 34% Vs. 61%
    • Donald Trump – 32% Vs. 59%

    The General Election:

    • Romney – 46% vs. Obama – 43%
    • Obama – 45% Vs. Huckabee – 43%
    • Obama – 46% Vs. Gingrich – 42%
    • Obama – 50% Vs. Palin – 39%
    • Obama – 47% Vs. Trump – 41%

    In Nevada, a key battleground state which the GOP needs to win the Presidency in 2012 is definitely in play. President Obama is in trouble in Nevada.

    Barack Obama’s standing in Nevada has taken a significant turn in the wrong direction since early January and it appears he could have a much tougher time in the state next year than he did in 2008, particularly if the Republicans nominate Mitt Romney.

    Obama’s approval rating in Nevada is only 45% with 52% of voters disapproving of him. That represents an 11 point negative shift in his net approval since he posted a 50/46 spread on PPP’s first 2011 poll of the state. There are two problems contributing to Obama’s poor numbers. The first is that he is very unpopular with independents, only 33% of whom express favor for the job he’s doing to 65% who disapprove. The second is that Republicans (89%) are more united in their unhappiness with Obama than Democrats (79%) are in their approval. When independents don’t like you and the opposite party dislikes you more than your own likes you, that’s pretty much always going to be a formula for bad poll numbers.

    Despite his unpopularity Obama does lead 4 of the 5 Republicans we tested against him in the state, albeit by smaller margins than what he won over John McCain in 2008.

    Nevada voters are leery of President Obama. Whether it is the assinine comments about Las Vegas travel, the massive unemployment or rampant house foreclosures, Nevada is increasngly looking like an Electoral College pick-up for the Republicans.

    The entire poll is here.

  • Donald Trump,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 New Hampshire Poll Watch: Romney 47% Vs. Obama 39%

    According to the latest Rockefeller Center at Dartmouth College Poll.

    Of the Republican candidates expected to seek the presidential nomination, only Mitt Romney received a plurality of support. Barack Obama received a majority of the vote in matchups against Sarah Palin and Donald Trump. The Republican who performed best against Obama was Colin Powell. Powell was added to the survey in an effort to test the perceived absence of leadership qualities among the Republican candidates and in President Obama. Despite his advanced age and no mention of any presidential aspirations at this time, New Hampshire registered voters in the sample are clearly enamored with the prospect of a Powell candidacy

    New Hampshire is a key battleground state for the race for the 2012 Presidency and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is well positioned, thus far, to beat President Obama. Second place Mike Huckabee trails the President.

    In the polling for Iowa, Mike Huckabee leads while Mitt Romney doesn’t do as well. Iowa is becoming a key battleground state as well.

    How about a deal?

    Both Romney and Huckabee agree to a compact after which Pawlenty, Palin, Gingrich and Trump et. al. all drop out.

    1. Run only positive ads and limit the advertising budget

    2. Whoever wins the most GOP delegates by the end of Super Tuesday is annointed the Republican nominee. The other drops out and endorses the other.

    3. The second place finisher is nominated as Vice President on the ticket.

    4. The Romney-Huckabee or Huckabee-Romney ticket goes into the Spring 2012 as a unified team against President Obama and who ever his Vice President is (I assume it will not be Joe Biden).

    Well, how about it?

  • Donald Trump,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Huckabee 16% Trump 16% Romney 13% Palin 10%

    According to the latest Gallup Poll.

    Donald Trump debuts in a first-place tie in Gallup’s latest update of Republicans’ preferences for the party’s 2012 presidential nomination among potential contenders. Trump ties Mike Huckabee at 16%, with Mitt Romney close behind at 13%. Sarah Palin is the only other potential Republican candidate to earn double-digit support.

    Again, another national poll that does not reflect the reality of early state GOP caucuses and primary elections.

    But, the fact that Donald Trump is polling better than Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty cannot give each of these declared candidates much pleasure.

    With Ed Rollins, Mike Huckabee’s former 2008 Presidential campaign manager leaking that he thought Huck would make the run, folks looking at these polls will have to consider his numerous first place finishes as being significant. If and when Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin drop out of potential candidacies then the heads up battle between Huckabee and Romney will be the race – unless Mitch Daniels enters the race as the Fred Thompson of 2012.

    So, what does this all mean?

    Trump’s strong showing in Republican nomination preferences is partly a function of his high profile. Currently, the top vote-getters are generally the best-known Republicans. Lesser-known potential candidates such as Tim Pawlenty, Mitch Daniels, and Rick Santorum have more limited support on the nomination ballot at this point.

    That is a typical pattern in early nomination preference polls. Once campaigning gets underway in earnest later this year, and after the initial primaries and caucuses next year, some of the currently lesser-known candidates may emerge as stronger candidates, and some of the better-known candidates may fade.

    In fact, the leaders in early nomination polls for the last two presidential election cycles — Joe Lieberman in 2003 and Hillary Clinton in 2007 on the Democratic side and Rudy Giuliani in 2007 on the Republican side — did not eventually win their party’s nomination, with Lieberman and Giuliani having poor showings in the early primaries.

    Giuliani’s performance aside, the early leader in GOP primaries has usually gone on to win the nomination. The lack of a clear front-runner in this year’s field is a distinct departure from prior Republican contests. That situation could still change in the current campaign, since Romney is the only one of the four leading contenders who has taken any formal steps toward running for president.