Flap's Blog – FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog

With the 2012 presidential election just over six months away, the latest statewide Merrill/Morrison Institute poll found that Arizonans are evenly divided on whom they will support in November.

According to the poll of 488 registered voters, 42 percent said they would vote for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, while 40 percent said they would support President Barack Obama and 18 percent were undecided. Because the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percent, if the election were held today the contest for Arizona’s 11 electoral votes would be a “toss up.”

The poll found that the electorate is divided along party lines: 80 percent of Republicans said they would vote for Romney, 78 percent of Democrats for Obama. Although the sample of political independents is small (n=166), independents appear to be breaking slightly more for Obama (38 percent) than Romney (28 percent). However, the independent vote is still up for grabs because 34 percent of independents said they are undecided.

“In Arizona, like the rest of the nation, political independents may determine who wins in November,” said poll director Dr. Bruce Merrill, a senior fellow at Morrison Institute for Public Policy. “The eventual outcome also may be dependent on whether former Surgeon General Richard Carmona can mount a vigorous campaign for retiring Sen. John Kyl’s seat, a campaign that would stimulate turnout in the Hispanic community. While I think if the election were held today Romney probably would win, it appears Obama can mount a competitive campaign in Arizona.”

Romney appears to have the Tea Party support. Among the 39 percent of the electorate who said they support what the Tea Party stands for, 75 percent said they would vote for Romney.

But the poll also found that younger voters disproportionately support Obama while older voters support Romney. No “gender gap” was found among Arizona voters, however, as 40 percent of both men and women said they would vote for Obama.

Remember Arizona has not sent its Electoral College votes to a Democrat since Harry Truman in 1948.

But, if anything this poll may make more of a case for Romney to add an Hispanic to the ticket – like Senator Marco Rubio od Florida or Governor Susan Martinez of New Mexico.

President Obama’s job approval rating averaged 45.9% during his 13th quarter in office, showing improvement for the second consecutive quarter. His rating is essentially back to where it was before declining last summer and fall.

These results are based on more than 45,000 Gallup Daily tracking interviews conducted from Jan. 20 through April 19, the 13th quarter Obama has been in office since he was inaugurated on Jan. 20, 2009.

The improvement in Obama’s approval rating is likely tied to more positive economic news in recent months, especially concerning unemployment. Obama’s approval rating reached as high as 50% in Gallup Daily tracking, for April 3-5, before settling back down into the mid- to high 40% range in recent days.

Although Obama’s approval rating is improving, this is offset by the fact that it remains below the averages at the same point in time for presidents who were re-elected. All presidents since Eisenhower who were re-elected enjoyed average approval ratings above 50% during their 13th quarters in office.

Here is the chart of the other President who were re-elected:

The latest California unemployment numbers indicated that whatever economic recovery we have been experiencing lately may be short-lived. If American voters perceive the economy is not improving, President Obama will sink in the polls.

Obama remains short of the historical comfort zone — above 50% approval — that most successfully re-elected presidents achieved during their re-election year. However, he is not far below that threshold, and has seen his approval rating improve over the last two quarters.

The latest Gallup Daily tracking three-day rolling average of 46% suggests Obama is ending his 13th quarter at precisely his average performance for the entire quarter.

These are the results when registered voters are asked: “Suppose the presidential election were held today. If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party’s candidate and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney were the Republican Party’s candidate, who would you vote for Barack Obama, the Democrat or Mitt Romney, the Republican?” Those who are undecided are further asked if they lean more toward Obama or Romney and their leanings are incorporated into the results.

However, the latest Pew national poll has President Obama leading, but his lead has narrowed from the previous month.

But, what really matters is a few key battleground states and in one, President Obama is winning – Florida.

The polls are likely to fluctuate now as each national campaign ramps up their advertising programs.

Republican Mitt Romney holds a slim edge over President Obama in a head-to-head matchup, a Fox News poll released Thursday shows. In addition, the poll finds the president’s job rating has dropped to its lowest point of the year.

In a presidential matchup, Romney tops Obama by 46-44 percent if the election were today. 

As with every Romney-Obama matchup in the past six months, the race is so tight that it is within the poll’s margin of sampling error. This, however, is only the second time the Fox News poll shows Romney on top. The first time was November 2011, when he was also up by 2 percentage points.

The poll was conducted Monday through Wednesday. On Tuesday, Rick Santorum suspended his presidential bid — giving Romney a clear path to the Republican nomination. 

More Republicans (42 percent) than Democrats (32 percent) or independents (34 percent) say they are “extremely” interested in the upcoming presidential election.

Even so, the strength of party support in the matchup is dead even: 85 percent of Democrats back Obama and 85 percent of Republican back Romney.

Among the highly sought after group of independents, the poll found 43 percent back Romney and 37 percent Obama. Nearly one in four independent voters (21 percent) is undecided or won’t vote for either of the major party candidates.  Last month, independents split evenly between Obama and Romney at 40 percent each. In February, Romney had a 9-point advantage. 

The poll shows the gender gap may not solely be a problem for the Republican candidate. Women are more likely to back Obama (by 49-41 percent), while men are even more likely to give their support to Romney (by 52-38 percent). The 2008 Fox News national exit poll showed women voted for Obama over Republican John McCain by 13 percentage points (56-43 percent). Historically, exit poll results show women have consistently backed the Democrat over the Republican in presidential elections.

Now that Mitt Romney has clinched the Republican nomination, it is game on.

The Hilary Rosen flap may indeed hurt Obama enough that his female support may wane and any gender gap to his advantage may narrow.

Stay tuned…

Barack Obama’s opened up a 13 point lead on Mitt Romney in Colorado at 53-40. He’s gained 11 points in the state since December when he led just 47-45.

The formula for Obama’s gains is the same in Colorado as it is everywhere. He’s getting more popular and Romney’s getting less popular. In December only 45% of voters approved of the job Obama was doing to 50% who disapproved. Now he’s on positive ground with 50% giving him good marks to 47% who think he’s doing a poor job. The main thing that’s changed is Democrats really rallying around him. In December he was at 76/18 with them, but now it’s 89/8. The party is getting a lot more unified as the election comes closer.

Romney’s headed in the other direction. His net favorability has gone from -18 (35/53) to an even worse -29 (31/60). Romney had a healthy amount of appeal to Democrats earlier with 20% viewing him favorably but that’s now down to 11%. And he’s extremely unpopular with independents at 25/65.

In the head to head between them Obama leads Romney by 26 points with independents at 57-31. And Romney’s now getting just 7% of the Democratic vote, down from 14% on our December poll. This is the trend we’re seeing in most states- the primary campaign has caused much of Romney’s crossover support to evaporate and it’s also making him lose ground with independents.
Romney’s problem with women shows itself in a major way in Colorado. He’s down by 24 points with them at 58-34. With men the race is actually tied. Obama’s also up by an astounding 72-17 margin with voters under 30 in the state, a pretty good sign of where Colorado is headed politically.

I am not surprised and never considered Colorado a serious key battleground state. The only contested races appear to be in Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Nevada and Florida.

Mitt Romney will be an uninspired Republican nominee, but has a chance in those five states. A good media campaign and ground operation to turn out voters might lead him to a victory.

Otherwise, it will be on to 2016 for the GOP and Tea Party.

U.S. unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, declined to 8.4% in March from 9.1% in February, while Gallup’s seasonally adjusted rate fell to 8.1% from 8.6% in February.

These results are based on Gallup Daily tracking interviewing conducted in March, including interviews with 31,283 U.S. adults, 67.8% of whom are active in the workforce. Gallup’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is based on the adjustment used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the same month of the previous year.

On an unadjusted basis, the March unemployment rate matches the previous low since Gallup began monitoring and reporting unemployment in January 2010. The unadjusted unemployment rate was last at 8.4% in October and November 2011. On a seasonally adjusted basis, March’s 8.1% reading is near the monthly low of 7.9% for Gallup’s U.S. unemployment rate, seen in January of this year. In both cases, Gallup trends show the U.S. unemployment rate declining dramatically over the past year.

This is some good news for the American economy. And, why President Obama has been rising in the polls, as of late.

Americans are feeling better about their jobs and their economic job prospects.

Underemployment has dramtically fallen.

Gallup’s U.S. underemployment measure combines those unemployed with those working part time but looking for full-time work. As a result of sharp declines in both of these groups, the underemployment rate, on an unadjusted basis, fell to 18.0% in March from 19.1% in February 2012. The underemployment rate declined to as low as 18.0% last July before reversing course in August; it also increased from November through January.

Here is the chart:

The percentage of 18- to 25-year-old Americans who do not have health insurance has leveled off at the 24% range, after declining from about 28% after the healthcare law provision allowing adults up to age 26 to stay on a parent’s plan took effect.

The uninsured rate for 18- to 25-year-olds first began to decline in the fourth quarter of 2010 after the provision went into effect in September, falling to 26.3% from 28.0% in the third quarter of that year. It then declined further to 24% in the first quarter of 2011 and has remained at about that level since, with the exception of a slight temporary increase the third quarter of 2011.

The uninsured rate for 26- to 64-year-olds has also leveled off. Although, in contrast to 18- to 25-year-olds, the current uninsured rate for 26- to 64-year-olds has plateaued at a higher rate than in January 2008, when Gallup and Healthways first started tracking Americans’ health insurance coverage. Roughly one in five Americans in this age group report not having health insurance for the past year.

One of the political arguments in support of the Affordable Care Act (ObamaCare) is that by either the Supreme court striking down the law or a legislative/executive repeal that the government would be taking health insurance away from younger people who can join their parent’s plan.

Looking at the graph above, it is a whopping 4 per cent at best.

Not much of an argument, is it?

But, in the meantime, look what has happened to private health insurance after ObamaCare passed.

Surprise – employer-based private health insurance has declined and government paid health insurance (Medicare, Medicaid, or military/veterans’ benefits) has increased.

Overall, the percentage of all U.S. adults without health insurance was 17.3% in the first quarter of 2012, similar to its levels for the past year, although clearly lower than in 2008, 2009, and 2010. The increase in the percentage of all Americans who were uninsured in the second quarter of 2011 coincides with Gallup’s decision to include more cell phone-only respondents in the U.S. beginning April 1. Thus, some of the increase in the uninsured could reflect the greater representation of cell phone-only respondents — who tend to be younger — in Gallup samples.

Meanwhile, the percentage of all adults who get their health insurance through an employer has trended down — now at 44.5%. The percentage who have a government plan through Medicare, Medicaid, or military/veterans’ benefits has increased over time — now at 25.3%.

So, what does this all mean?

The U.S. Supreme Court last week heard arguments about the constitutionality of the 2010 healthcare law. During the hearings, the justices raised questions about how and if to save different parts of the health law should they decide against the individual mandate. While the final ruling is months away, if the court should decide to strike down the entire law — which includes the provision allowing those up to age 26 to stay on a parent’s health plans — many young adults who have recently gained coverage would likely lose it.

Still, even as the law remains intact for now, it appears that this part of the law that allows those up to age 26 to stay on a parent’s plan may have reached a saturation point. Although millions of people took advantage of this provision when it first went into effect, it does not seem at this point to be having any additional effect on the uninsured rate among young adults. This may be because all or most of those who qualify and have an interest in taking advantage of the provision have already done so. Or, it could be that only those who are most informed have taken part and many others are still unaware of this provision.