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President 2012 Poll Watch: Republicans Have Significantly More Voter Engagement
According to the latest Gallup Poll.
Sixty-four percent of Americans say they have given quite a lot of thought to the 2012 presidential election, a slightly lower percentage than Gallup measured in July of 2004 and 2008. But Americans are much more engaged in the current election than in the 2000 election.
But, Republicans are significantly MORE engaged and MORE likely to vote.
Here is the chart:
This is bad news for President Obama and the national Democratic Party.
With the weekend selection of conservative, Tea Party favorite, Rep. Paul Ryan as Mitt Romney’s Vice Presidential running mate, voter engagement will likely expand and remain high.
The Paul Ryan selection unites the Republican Party and they WILL turn out to vote.
Americans are not as engaged in the 2012 election as they were in the 2004 and 2008 elections at similar points in the campaign, but they do seem to pay more attention to election campaigns than to most news stories.
Republicans currently are more highly engaged in the campaign than Democrats. If that persists, it suggests Republican turnout may be much stronger than Democratic turnout. However, Democrats may not have had as much reason to tune in to the campaign yet, given that most of the news has centered on the Republican nomination. Thought given to the election in September, after the party conventions are held, and in the final stretch of the campaign in October will give a better indication of potential turnout among party groups.
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President 2012: Obama Approval Sinks to 43 Per Cent
According to the latest Gallup Poll.
Gallup tracks daily the percentage of Americans who approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president. Daily results are based on telephone interviews with approximately 1,500 national adults; Margin of error is ±3 percentage points.
And, the CNN and Fox News polls showing President Obama today with a large lead are – well, inaccurate.
This race with Mitt Romney will be close.
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Gallup: United States Unemployment Rate Up in July to 8.2%
According to the latest Gallup poll.
U.S. unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, was 8.2% in July, up slightly from 8.0% in June, but better than the 8.8% from a year ago. Gallup’s seasonally adjusted number for July is 8.0%, an increase from 7.8% in June.
These results are based on Gallup Daily tracking interviews, conducted by landline and cell phone, with almost 30,000 Americans throughout the month. Gallup calculates a seasonally adjusted unemployment rate by applying the adjustment factor the government used for the same month in the previous year. July data by demographic group are found on page 2.
Unemployment had previously dropped to 7.9% in mid-July, the lowest it has been since Gallup began tracking employment daily in 2010. However, the improvement was short-lived, and unemployment increased during the second half of the month.
Underemployment has declined:
Underemployment, however, did decline — for the third straight month in July, to 17.1%, the lowest since Gallup started collecting employment data. Gallup’s U.S. underemployment measure combines the unemployed with those working part time but looking for full-time work. Gallup does not apply a seasonal adjustment to underemployment.
Here is the summary chart for July:
So, what does this all mean?The unemployment rate and workforce participation rate are not improving at a very rapid rate. They are flat at best.
The American economy continues in the doldrums and with the job creation rate also down, the economy will remain a prime Presidential campaign issue.
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July Job Creation Index Slips
According to the latest Gallup Poll.Gallup’s U.S. Job Creation Index slipped to +17 in July, after registering at or near +20 from April through June. Despite the drop, the +17 continues to be one of the more positive net hiring values Gallup has recorded since 2009, though it still trails the readings seen as the 2008-2009 recession was just starting.
The Gallup Job Creation Index is a measure of U.S. adult employees’ perceptions of hiring conditions where they work. On average in July, 34% of all full- and part-time workers said their employers are hiring and expanding the size of their workforces, and 17% said their employers are letting workers go and reducing the size of their workforces, resulting in the +17 net hiring figure.
The hiring component of the index fell slightly to 34% in July, from 36% in June, while the firing component moved to 17%, from 16%. This backslide in hiring mirrors Americans’ flagging economic confidence in July.
There appears to be NO sustained economic recovery at this point of the Presidential election cycle. Certainly, President Obama is not going to be able to point to an improving job’s climate the past few months.
What are the implications?
These figures will be exploited by the Republican Mitt Romney during the fall campaign.
Here is the Hiring Vs. Firing Chart for the same time period:
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President 2012 Florida Poll Watch: Obama 48% Vs. Romney 47%
President Obama and Mitt Romney
According to the Democratic leaning PPP Polling.
PPP’s first likely voters poll of Florida finds that it’s likely to take its customary place as one of the most closely contested states in the country this year. Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney by the slightest of margins, 48-47, but Romney would take a small advantage in the state if he added either Marco Rubio or Condoleezza Rice to his ticket.
Speaking to the general discontent of the electorate this year Florida voters aren’t terribly enamored with either Obama or Romney. Voters narrowly disapprove of the job Obama’s doing, with 50% giving him poor marks to 47% who think he’s doing a good job. But they’re not terribly fond of Romney either, with 46% rating him favorably to 49% with a negative opinion. Still this parity between Obama’s approval and Romney’s favorability numbers is notable- Obama has tended to run well ahead of Romney on that front.
Obama and Romney are holding their party bases at basically equal levels, with 84% of Democrats supporting Obama and 83% of Republicans committed to Romney. Romney’s holding a 47-40 lead with independents. Obama’s up 51-44 with women, 61-34 with Hispanics, and 58-35 with young voters while Romney’s ahead 50-45 with men, 56-39 with whites, and 52-44 with seniors.
We tested five potential running mate pairings for Romney in Florida and two of them moved him from a small disadvantage to a small lead. Home state Senator Marco Rubio makes the biggest difference for Romney, pushing him up to a 49-47 lead. Rubio’s approval numbers aren’t earth shattering at 45/42, but his appeal is strong enough to help Romney gain a couple points with both Democrats and Republicans.
The other difference maker among potential Romney running mates is Condoleezza Rice. She has a 59/28 favorability rating, basically unheard of among politicians today. Republicans (76/15) and independents (62/26) and love her and even with Democrats she’s on narrowly positive ground (42/41). If she was on the ticket Romney’s lead with independents would jump from 7 points to 13, leaving him ahead 46-45 overall.
Interesting that Florida Senator Marco Rubio pushes Romney into the lead. Mitt Romney, in order to win the Presidency must win Florida.
Rubio, a Cuban American conservative, would also help Romney with Hispanic voters in Colorado and Nevada.
This is why, I feel, Rubio is the BEST choice for Romney.
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Poll Watch: Presidential To Do List – Jobs and Government Corruption
According to the latest Gallup Poll.
Creating good jobs, reducing corruption in the federal government, and reducing the federal budget deficit score highest when Americans rate 12 issues as priorities for the next president to address. Americans assign much less importance to increasing taxes on wealthy Americans and dealing with environmental concerns.
Looks to me that Americans do not care too much for the class warfare jibberish of President Obama and the Congressional Democrats. This appears to be an opening for Mitt Romney to exploit the policy issues.
But, will he?
Or, will Obama try to pivot toward the center and cut Romney off at the policy pass?
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President 2012 Poll Watch: Romney Leading Obama by 5 Points Nationally
According to the latest Rasmussen Presidential daily tracking poll.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Mitt Romney attracting 49% of the vote, while President Obama earns support from 44%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided.
The numbers are similar to the 49% to 43% advantage Romney enjoys on the question of who is trusted more to handle the economy.
Romney’s five-point advantage is the largest enjoyed by either candidate in just over a month. As with any such change in the race, it remains to be seen whether it marks a lasting shift or is merely statistical noise.
The president’s support has been at either 43% or 44% for six straight days. See tracking history.
Rasmussen Polling is always seen to be GOP biased by about 3 or 4 points so this latest result may be significant.
But, the main result is that the incumbent President Obama is NOT leading Romney by 5 points like he did the presumptive GOP nominee, John McCain in 2008.
So, despite the lumps that Romney has taken in the past few days over his remarks in England, Mitt Romney is still very much in this race.
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President 2012 Nevada Poll Watch: Obama Leads Romney By 5 Points
According to the latest Rasmussen Poll.The presidential race in Nevada is a little tighter this month, with President Obama now leading Mitt Romney by five points in the Silver State.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Nevada shows the president drawing 50% of the vote to Romney’s 45%. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided.
The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Nevada was conducted on July 24, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
Negative Romney ads have been running for some time in the Las Vegas television market.
Romney needs to win Nevada and by selecting a Hispanic Vice President Marco Rubio might be the way to regain the edge in the state.
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Does Democrat Voter Enthusiasm Spell Trouble for Obama?
Yes, according to the latest Gallup Poll.Democrats are significantly less likely now (39%) than they were in the summers of 2004 and 2008 to say they are “more enthusiastic about voting than usual” in the coming presidential election. Republicans are more enthusiastic now than in 2008, and the same as in 2004.
These results are based on a July 19-22 USA Today/Gallup poll. They suggest a shift in Republicans’ and Democrats’ orientation to voting in the coming presidential election compared with the last two, with Republicans expressing more voting enthusiasm. The current 51% to 39% Republican advantage in voter enthusiasm is slightly larger than the 53% to 45% GOP advantage Gallup measured in February of this year.
The voting enthusiasm measure gives a sense of Americans’ motivation to turn out and vote but probably also their expectations of their preferred party’s chances of winning. Thus, the Republican advantage may indicate a greater likelihood of voting among Republicans but also greater optimism about a Republican victory than was the case in 2008. In turn, Democrats are probably less optimistic about their chances of winning than they were in 2008.
Can you not feel a sense in a change of momentum in the Obama re-election campaign and the left-wing dominated media about Democratic Party prospects?
In 2004 and 2006, the LEFT was determined and driven to beat Bush and the GOP. This year it is ho hum. This indifference is reflected in the polls.
Republicans vote with greater frequency than Democrats anyway. Should Democrats fail to show up to the polls to support Obama in the key battleground states, the President will be toast.
With voter enthusiasm down significantly from 2004 and 2008 levels, it is reasonable to expect that turnout will be lower this presidential election than in the last two elections, both of which had above-average turnout from a historical perspective.
Republicans’ greater enthusiasm about voting is a troubling sign for the Obama campaign, especially given the fact that registered voters are essentially tied in their presidential voting preferences and that Republicans historically vote at higher rates than Democrats do.
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Poll Watch: Mtt Romney Should Release More Tax Returns
According to the latest Gallup Poll.A majority of Americans (54%) say Mitt Romney should release additional tax returns, while 37% say he should not, according to a USA Today/Gallup snapshot poll conducted Wednesday night. Predictably, Democrats strongly favor his releasing more tax returns, Republicans have the opposite view, and independents mirror the national tendency to favor Romney’s releasing more returns.
I am not too distressed that Romney has not released all of his tax returns.
We know he is very wealthy and like everyone has minimized his tax burden.
I am more concerned about the issues and what he plans to do his first few months in office – as everyone should.
This is a non-issue that President Obama is using to distract voter’s attention away from the abysmal job he has done during his term.
So, I do not think Romney will capitulate and will choose to ride out the flap.
