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share save 120 16 President 2012: The Final Electoral College Map

final 2012 presidential map President 2012: The Final Electoral College Map

Map courtesy of 270towin.com

The Romney campaign this afternoon conceded the last state (Florida) in play from Tuesday’s Presidential election.

In total, only two states from the McCain Vs. Obama race flipped red from blue in the Electoral College – Indiana and North Carolina.

President Obama won the election with a total of 332 ECV to Mitt Romney’s 206 ECV.

This is certainly different from my final map which narrowly had Romney beating the President. I was surprised and believe the Romney Campaign was surprised as well.

Poll assumptions, averages and calculations, most notably by Nate Silver at the New York Times 538 blog had the results more accurately predicted. Larry Sabato over at the University of Virginia also had some successful prognostications.

Look at Nate Silver’s Tipping Point Analysis graph – it lays out the work for the GOP in 2016.

Nate Silver Presidential tipping point President 2012: The Final Electoral College Map

The same key battleground states in the 2012 race may very well be in play. Of course, Hillary Clinton or New York Governor Cuomo will be the Democratic candidate and the Republicans will also choose another.

In order to flip more states red in the Electoral College and win the election, the Republicans must win more votes in Florida, Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Iowa, and perhaps Wisconsin.

There may be two approaches as noted by Silver and I concur.

The Republican Party will have four years to adapt to the new reality. Republican gains among Hispanic voters could push Colorado and Nevada back toward the tipping point, for example.

States like Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Iowa are overwhelmingly white – but also highly educated, with fairly progressive views on social policy. If Republicans moderated their tone on social issues, they might be more competitive in these states, while regaining ground in Northern Virginia and in the Philadelphia suburbs.

The Republican Party has a few months to adapt and adopt new messaging to prepare for the 2014 mid-term elections.

The data is there and now it is up to the GOP to make the necessary changes.

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share save 120 16 President 2012 Polling: The Best National Pollsters

natlpolls vs outcome President 2012 Polling: The Best National Pollsters

Graphic courtesy of John Sides at The Monkey Cage

As you know, I am really into polling since it gives us a scientific method to measure what is happening in the political world.

So, let’s take a look at who did the best.

This list and the graphic above is for the NATIONAL Presidential polls for 2012.

1. PPP (D)
1. Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP
3. YouGov
4. Ipsos/Reuters
5. Purple Strategies
6. NBC/WSJ
6. CBS/NYT
6. YouGov/Economist
9. UPI/CVOTER
10. IBD/TIPP
11. Angus-Reid
12. ABC/WP
13. Pew Research
13. Hartford Courant/UConn
15. CNN/ORC
15. Monmouth/SurveyUSA
15. Politico/GWU/Battleground
15. FOX News
15. Washington Times/JZ Analytics
15. Newsmax/JZ Analytics
15. American Research Group
15. Gravis Marketing
23. Democracy Corps (D)
24. Rasmussen
24. Gallup
26. NPR
27. National Journal
28. AP/GfK

As everyone, particularly on the right, started criticizing polling models, it drew attention to sampling and methodology. This is a good thing.

Often campaigns use a recently release poll (even if an outlier) to spin a meme of momentum for their candidate or a lack therof for their opponent.

Polling averages like Nate Silver’s and Real Clear Politics help aggregate the myriad of national and state oriented polls. I have found it best to look at the averages and it smooths out the results.

The pollsters WERE pretty accurate – some better than others.

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share save 120 16 President 2012 Prediction: Romney Wins Narrow Electoral College Victory

Romney State of the Race October 23 2012 President 2012 Prediction: Romney Wins Narrow Electoral College Victory

From 270towin.com

I am an optimistic sort for the GOP and bucking the conventional wisdom believe that when all the votes are counted, Mitt Romney will be elected the 45th President of the United States. Note, my map above still has Iowa up in the air – but is irrelevant at this point.

By the time, the early Midwestern votes come in via exit polls, America should know the trend.

If Romney loses Ohio AND Wisconsin, he is probably toast.

If Obama loses any other state like Pennsylvania or Ohio, the President is done.

Others have offered their, I would say, balanced perspective.

In the final weeks of the presidential campaign, there have been two major schools of thought about who is going to win. One school points to President Obama getting reelected for a very simple reason: polls show Mitt Romney losing Ohio, and all of the states that he would need to win to make up for a loss in Ohio. The other school argues that state polls have been systematically biased against Romney by assuming that Democratic turnout will rival – or even exceed – elevated 2008 levels, when Obamamania was at its peak. Those who believe that Romney will win have pointed to polls showing him ahead among independents, predicted a late break toward the challenger, or pointed to economic fundamentals. To read the conventional wisdom pointing to an Obama win, check out Nate Silver. To read predictions of a Romney win, check out our own Michael Barone, as well as Dan McLaughlin, Ben Domenech, Jay Cost. Also read Ted Frank, who still thinks Obama will likely win, though he makes a strong devil’s advocate argument for how Romney could pull it out.

But, in the end, I think a majority of American voters are not happy with the direction of the country and will willing to vote for a change.

In any case, the majority of the House of Representatives looks safely in the hands of the GOP. The U.S. Senate majority will remain under Democratic Party control.

Balanced or split party government is what Americans desire and that is what they will have after the voting tomorrow.

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share save 120 16 President 2012: Latest Key Battleground State Polls for November 5

Rasmussen Poll Romney 49 vs. Obama 48 President 2012: Latest Key Battleground State Polls for November 5Here are the latest key battleground state polls:

The Real Clear Politics average of polls and more are here.

As I have been saying for about a week now – the Presidential race is very close and we will be in for an exciting night of election returns.

If the polls are correct, then we will be in for a very late night Tuesday and early morning Wednesday.

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share save 120 16 President 2012: Latest Key Battleground State Polls for November 1

Romney campaigning Oct 31 2012 President 2012: Latest Key Battleground State Polls for November 1

Mitt Romney campaigning yesterday in Florida

Here are the latest key battleground state polls:

The Real Clear Politics average of polls and more are here.

The Presidential race is very close – no matter what the spin spews out over the next few days.

This election can break either way and we may have a very exciting election night next Tuesday.

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