• Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012: The Final Electoral College Map

    President 2012 Final Electoral College Map

    Map courtesy of 270towin.com

    The Romney campaign this afternoon conceded the last state (Florida) in play from Tuesday’s Presidential election.

    In total, only two states from the McCain Vs. Obama race flipped red from blue in the Electoral College – Indiana and North Carolina.

    President Obama won the election with a total of 332 ECV to Mitt Romney’s 206 ECV.

    This is certainly different from my final map which narrowly had Romney beating the President. I was surprised and believe the Romney Campaign was surprised as well.

    Poll assumptions, averages and calculations, most notably by Nate Silver at the New York Times 538 blog had the results more accurately predicted. Larry Sabato over at the University of Virginia also had some successful prognostications.

    Look at Nate Silver’s Tipping Point Analysis graph – it lays out the work for the GOP in 2016.

    Nate Silver Presidential tipping point

    The same key battleground states in the 2012 race may very well be in play. Of course, Hillary Clinton or New York Governor Cuomo will be the Democratic candidate and the Republicans will also choose another.

    In order to flip more states red in the Electoral College and win the election, the Republicans must win more votes in Florida, Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Iowa, and perhaps Wisconsin.

    There may be two approaches as noted by Silver and I concur.

    The Republican Party will have four years to adapt to the new reality. Republican gains among Hispanic voters could push Colorado and Nevada back toward the tipping point, for example.

    States like Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Iowa are overwhelmingly white – but also highly educated, with fairly progressive views on social policy. If Republicans moderated their tone on social issues, they might be more competitive in these states, while regaining ground in Northern Virginia and in the Philadelphia suburbs.

    The Republican Party has a few months to adapt and adopt new messaging to prepare for the 2014 mid-term elections.

    The data is there and now it is up to the GOP to make the necessary changes.

  • Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012 Polling: The Best National Pollsters

    Chart of the best national presidential polls

    Graphic courtesy of John Sides at The Monkey Cage

    As you know, I am really into polling since it gives us a scientific method to measure what is happening in the political world.

    So, let’s take a look at who did the best.

    This list and the graphic above is for the NATIONAL Presidential polls for 2012.

    1. PPP (D)
    1. Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP
    3. YouGov
    4. Ipsos/Reuters
    5. Purple Strategies
    6. NBC/WSJ
    6. CBS/NYT
    6. YouGov/Economist
    9. UPI/CVOTER
    10. IBD/TIPP
    11. Angus-Reid
    12. ABC/WP
    13. Pew Research
    13. Hartford Courant/UConn
    15. CNN/ORC
    15. Monmouth/SurveyUSA
    15. Politico/GWU/Battleground
    15. FOX News
    15. Washington Times/JZ Analytics
    15. Newsmax/JZ Analytics
    15. American Research Group
    15. Gravis Marketing
    23. Democracy Corps (D)
    24. Rasmussen
    24. Gallup
    26. NPR
    27. National Journal
    28. AP/GfK

    As everyone, particularly on the right, started criticizing polling models, it drew attention to sampling and methodology. This is a good thing.

    Often campaigns use a recently release poll (even if an outlier) to spin a meme of momentum for their candidate or a lack therof for their opponent.

    Polling averages like Nate Silver’s and Real Clear Politics help aggregate the myriad of national and state oriented polls. I have found it best to look at the averages and it smooths out the results.

    The pollsters WERE pretty accurate – some better than others.

  • Barack Obama,  Mitt Romney,  President 2012

    President 2012 Prediction: Romney Wins Narrow Electoral College Victory

    Romney State of the Race October 23 2012 The Electoral College: State of the Presidential Race

    From 270towin.com

    I am an optimistic sort for the GOP and bucking the conventional wisdom believe that when all the votes are counted, Mitt Romney will be elected the 45th President of the United States. Note, my map above still has Iowa up in the air – but is irrelevant at this point.

    By the time, the early Midwestern votes come in via exit polls, America should know the trend.

    If Romney loses Ohio AND Wisconsin, he is probably toast.

    If Obama loses any other state like Pennsylvania or Ohio, the President is done.

    Others have offered their, I would say, balanced perspective.

    In the final weeks of the presidential campaign, there have been two major schools of thought about who is going to win. One school points to President Obama getting reelected for a very simple reason: polls show Mitt Romney losing Ohio, and all of the states that he would need to win to make up for a loss in Ohio. The other school argues that state polls have been systematically biased against Romney by assuming that Democratic turnout will rival – or even exceed – elevated 2008 levels, when Obamamania was at its peak. Those who believe that Romney will win have pointed to polls showing him ahead among independents, predicted a late break toward the challenger, or pointed to economic fundamentals. To read the conventional wisdom pointing to an Obama win, check out Nate Silver. To read predictions of a Romney win, check out our own Michael Barone, as well as Dan McLaughlin, Ben Domenech, Jay Cost. Also read Ted Frank, who still thinks Obama will likely win, though he makes a strong devil’s advocate argument for how Romney could pull it out.

    But, in the end, I think a majority of American voters are not happy with the direction of the country and will willing to vote for a change.

    In any case, the majority of the House of Representatives looks safely in the hands of the GOP. The U.S. Senate majority will remain under Democratic Party control.

    Balanced or split party government is what Americans desire and that is what they will have after the voting tomorrow.

  • Barack Obama,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012: Latest Key Battleground State Polls for November 5

    Rasmussen Poll Romney 49 vs. Obama 48Here are the latest key battleground state polls:

    The Real Clear Politics average of polls and more are here.

    As I have been saying for about a week now – the Presidential race is very close and we will be in for an exciting night of election returns.

    If the polls are correct, then we will be in for a very late night Tuesday and early morning Wednesday.

  • Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012: Latest Key Battleground State Polls for November 1

    Romney campaigning Oct 31 2012

    Mitt Romney campaigning yesterday in Florida

    Here are the latest key battleground state polls:

    The Real Clear Politics average of polls and more are here.

    The Presidential race is very close – no matter what the spin spews out over the next few days.

    This election can break either way and we may have a very exciting election night next Tuesday.

  • President 2012

    President 2012: The Latest Key Battleground State Polls

    https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-9dt_5zNjajk/T6FhYj0bJdI/AAAAAAAAFSc/Mp6P-P2z6rs/s600/Obama+and+Romney.jpg

    Here are the latest key battleground state polls:

    The Real Clear Politics average of polls and more are here.

  • Barack Obama,  Electoral College,  Mitt Romney,  President 2012

    The Electoral College: State of the Presidential Race

    Romney State of the Race October 23 2012 The Morning Flap: October 23, 2012

    From 270towin.com

    The above graphic is how the Presidential race will turn out in the Electoral College on November the 6th. I have Mitt Romney defeating President Obama 271 Electoral Votes vs. 261 Electoral Votes.

    Most notable recent changes I have made have been the loss of Ohio to the President and the pick up of Colorado for Romney.

    Here is my Electoral College map I made after Mitt Romney chose Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin for his Vice President running mate.

     Electoral College August 11 2012 Does Paul Ryan Help Mitt Romney in the Electoral College?

    From 270towin.com

    To say the least, the race is tight.

    Mitt Romney continues to make a play for Nevada and I understand as of yesterday, he made a very large television ad buy in Northern Nevada – the Reno market.

    Recent polling by Rasmussen and Gallup have Ohio all tied up – well within the margins of error. Ohio could go either way. I think Obama now needs Ohio more than Romney in order to win, which goes against the maxim that GOP Presidential wins go through Ohio.

    Stay tuned as more polls roll in throughout the next few days.

    However, I think, my first map with a 271 Electoral College Vote win for Romney will probably be the end result.

  • Barack Obama,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012

    Gallup Poll: Obama Losing Momentum With Voters

    Gallup Presidential Poll among likely votersPresident Obama’s loss of momentum traces back to the first Presidential debate when Mitt Romney schooled the President. But, the latest Gallup Poll is even more telling.

    Half of likely voters now prefer Mitt Romney for president and 46% back President Barack Obama in Gallup interviewing through Monday.

    While Romney’s four-percentage-point advantage is not statistically significant, he has consistently edged ahead of Obama each of the past several days in Gallup’s seven-day rolling averages conducted entirely after the Oct. 3 presidential debate. Prior to that debate — regarded as a decisive Romney win by political experts and Americans who watched it — Romney averaged less than a one-point lead over Obama among likely voters.

    The latest result, from Oct. 9-15, is based on 2,723 likely voters drawn from more than 3,100 registered voters.

    And, here is the registered voters poll chart – note the trend.

    Gallup Registered Voters Presidential PollGallup has also done a comparison between Obama Vs. McCain and Obama Vs. Romney.

    Here is the chart:

    Gallup Poll Presidential Preferences 2008 vs 2012Here is the summary of the differences between 2008 and 2012:

    Degreed voters backing off Obama: In 2008, Obama led McCain among postgraduate educated voters by a 30-point margin, while he ran roughly even with McCain among those with lower levels of education. Today, Obama’s postgraduate advantage has been cut to 14 points and he trails Romney among college graduates (those with four-year degrees only) by 22 points. His support from high school graduates and those with some college is also down slightly, providing no counterbalance to his major losses among the college educated.

    Southern losses: The South gave Obama the least support of any region in 2008, but still split their vote evenly for Obama vs. McCain. Today, Southerners favor Romney by a 22-point margin, the largest shift of any region. Voters in the East are also less supportive, while preferences in the West and Midwest are little changed.

    Young voters stick with him: Young voters were an important part of Obama’s 2008 coalition, and in 2012 they continue to support him overwhelmingly, at roughly the same level as four years ago. The difficulty for Obama is that he currently has less support among each older age group, particularly those aged 30 to 49 years.

    White support dwindles: Obama lost the white vote in 2008 by 12 percentage points, but that was more than offset by a 72-point lead among nonwhites. Today, Obama has a more daunting 22-point deficit among whites, while his margin over Romney among nonwhites is essentially unchanged.

    Men move away: In 2008, Gallup found a 14-point swing in gender preferences for president, with women favoring Obama by a 14-point margin and men tied in their preferences for Obama vs. McCain. Today, there is a 20-point gender gap. Women’s support for Obama shrank to six percentage points, while men favor Romney by 14 points.

    So, what does this all mean?

    The President is in trouble for re-election. Mitt Romney has been surging since the first Denver  Presidential debate and if Obama does not reverse this course in three weeks there will be a new President come 2013.

    Watch the President come out swinging in tonight’s debate.

    Obama really has to hit a home run or he is toast.

  • Day By Day,  President 2012

    Day By Day October 14, 2012 – Pattern

    Day By Day cartoon for October 14, 2012

    Day By Day by Chris Muir

    Chris, you mean the “Lame Stream” media might actually have some bias? Have family members or themselves working for the POLS before and subsequent to their media assignments?

    Fancy that!

    Now, there is a brewing kerfuffle over CNN’s Candy Crowley and tomorrow night’s Presidential debate.

    In a rare example of political unity, both the Romney and Obama campaigns have expressed concern to the Commission on Presidential Debates about how the moderator of this Tuesday’s town hall has publicly described her role, TIME has learned.

    While an early-October memorandum of understanding between the Obama and Romney campaigns suggests that CNN’s Candy Crowley would play a limited role in the Tuesday-night session, Crowley, who is not a party to that agreement, has done a series of interviews on her network in which she has suggested that she will assume a broader set of responsibilities. As Crowley put it last week, “Once the table is kind of set by the town-hall questioner, there is then time for me to say, ‘Hey, wait a second, what about X, Y, Z?’”

    In the view of the two campaigns and the commission, those and other recent comments by Crowley conflict with the language the campaigns agreed to, which delineates a more limited role for the debate moderator. The questioning of the two candidates is supposed to be driven by the audience members — likely voters selected by the Gallup Organization. Crowley’s assignment differs from those of the three other debate moderators, who in the more standard format are supposed to lead the questioning and follow up when appropriate. The town-hall debate is planned for Oct. 16 at 9 p.m. E.T. at Hofstra University in Hempstead, N.Y.

    Should Crowley be replaced?

    If she doesn’t agree with the rules of the format, she should step down.

    Oh, by the way, the “Lame Stream” media needs to prop up Obama so he has already won this debate.

  • Barack Obama,  President 2012

    Obama Campaign Gets Serious with Big Bird Ad?

    [youtube]http://youtu.be/bZxs09eV-Vc[/youtube]

    Of course, the Obama Campaign folks will say that this is just a light-hearted dig at Romney. But, the fact that in their press release they did not list the states where this purported television ad will air, everyone suspects that this was a “trial balloon.”

    The add is a pretty stupid move when the President just had his ass kicked on the issues in the first debate with Mitt Romney.

    I mean, really, 8 per cent unemployment for 44 months of his Presidency and a stagnant economy, then the President attacks Romney over Big Bird.

    Obama and his campaign are flailing….