Michele Bachmann,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Mike Huckabee Leading the GOP Field With Positive Intensity

March 15, 2011 /

According to the latest Gallup Poll.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee leads the field of possible GOP presidential candidates in “positive intensity” among Republicans nationwide with a score of +25 among Republicans who are familiar with him, followed by Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota with a score of +20. Huckabee is recognized by 87% of Republicans, compared with Bachmann’s 52%. A number of other possible Republican presidential candidates trail these two in Positive Intensity Scores, including Sarah Palin, who is the best known of the group.

Here are the results:

As with a number of Presidential polls released within the past month, these results verify that there is NO front runner in the GOP Presidential field.

Michelle Bachmann is a bit of a surprise to me but is her intensity rating a spill-over from a Sarah Palin decline in the polls? Hard to say. But, if anything is clear, Mike Huckabee might be reconsidering whether he wants to give up that Saturday night Fox News gig.

And, poor Mitt Romney is hoping for a miracle.

But, who knows, with the GOP primary voters all split apart, who will emerge with sufficient numbers of delegates? I can see a scenario where there is a “brokered” convention, where it is uncertain as to who the GOP nominee will be.

Here are the Republican candidate images among Republicans and GOP-leaning independents:

Here is a chart:

One last chart, Republican candidate images with a combination of recognition and favorability questions:

Again, what does this all mean?

  • No front runner in the GOP Presidential field.
  • Rep. Michelle Bachmann has emerged with intense feelings among the GOP faithful but with h less recognition
  • Mike Huckabee continues to lead the field, despite the likelyhood of him running is more remote.

If I were Huckabee this morning, I would be meeting with advisers. If I were Mitt Romney, I would be planning for a convention-based campaign after primary votes are scattered all over different candidates.

At this stage of the race for 2012, the GOP might be looking at a long primary season.

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