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President 2012 Video: Sarah Palin Organizer Confident She Will Run?
“Iowa Passion” Sarah Palin at the Iowa State Fair last weekNobody really knows what Sarah Palin will do but there is a lot of speculation and buzz today.
Sarah Palin’s Sept. 3 event has been relocated from Waukee to Indianola to better accommodate a larger crowd, organizers said.
Palin is the keynote speaker at the Tea Party of America’s “Restoring America” event, which is free and open to the public.
The event was originally scheduled at Hawkeye Antique Acres in Waukee. The event is now scheduled from 11 a.m. to 2 p.m. at the National Balloon Classic field, east of Indianola.
There has been speculation that Palin, a former governor of Alaska and 2008 Republican vice presidential candidate, could use the event as an opportunity to announce whether she plans to run for president in 2012.
“I don’t know if she’s going to announce or not,” said Charlie Gruschow, co-founder of Tea Party of America. “But whether or not she announces, we’re going to have a huge event.”
I think she will run.
With Rick Perry in the race, a multi-candidate field with two other conservatives and one moderate (Mitt Romney) is a “perfect” storm for her.
But, I. also, think that Rudy Giuliani may then run or endorse Rick Perry and tie up the delegates in Florida, East and Far West.
The next few weeks will prove to be a very interesting time.
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President 2012 GOP California Poll Watch: Romney 22% Vs. Perry 15% Vs. Palin 10% Vs. Bachmann 8.5%
According to the latest Probolsky Research Poll.
An interesting poll with a small sample size, includes Sarah Palin and does NOT include Rudy Giuliani who is very popular in California.So, I say take it as – meh……
It is likely, but NOT highly likely that with a crowded GOP field, the California Presidential Primary Election which will be held in June 2012 will actually matter. Most candidates in the GOP field and certainly the party would like the nomination contest to be over long before then.
Why?
California is a very large state and the media markets extremely expensive. Plus, California is going for Obama no matter what and any cross-over campaigning for the general election will not matter.
Also, remember, the California Primary has historically been “winner take all” and having the election so late will allow the party to set the rules in this manner
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President 2012 GOP New Hampshire Poll Watch: Romney 36% Vs. Perry 18% Vs. Paul 14% Vs. Bachmann 10%
According to the latest NH Journal/Magellan Strategies Poll.
In the wake of Texas Gov. Rick Perry’s entrance into the GOP presidential race, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney holds onto a double-digit lead in New Hampshire, according to a new poll.
Romney, who owns a home in the Granite State, attracts 36 percent support from likely GOP primary voters, according to a NH Journal/Magellan Strategies (R) poll released Wednesday. Perry makes a strong debut in the poll, however, placing second behind Romney with 18 percent support. Fellow Texan Ron Paul rounds out the top three with 14 percent.
Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, whose focus on the early state of Iowa paid off in the form of a straw poll victory in Ames over the weekend, garners 10 percent support. Bachmann’s Iowa victory likely won’t boost her prospects in New Hampshire, however, as 84 percent of likely voters polled say the straw poll results won’t impact their decision in the GOP primary.
A good initial New Hampshire poll for Texas Governor Rick Perry.
Not so good for Michele Bachmann who won last weekend’s Iowa Ames Straw Poll. It seems that Perry who just announced a few days ago is sucking the air out of Bachmann’s conservative base and her campaign.
And, Jon Huntsman. Why is he still in the race?
Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman attracts only 3 percent support from voters. The former U.S. ambassador to China has been polling near the bottom of national surveys, but his focus has been on New Hampshire. He visited the state last week, but the Magellan survey shows a plurality of voters in the state — 47 percent — have an unfavorable opinion of him. Twenty percent say they like him while 24 percent say they don’t know enough about him to make a decision.
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President 2012 GOP Wisconsin Poll Watch: Perry 20% Vs. Bachmann 20% Vs. Romney 13%
According to the latest PPP Poll.
Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann are tied for the Republican Presidential lead in Wisconsin at 20%…with Mitt Romney all the way back at 13%. Sarah Palin at 11%, Herman Cain at 7%, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul at 6%, Tim Pawlenty (the poll was conducted before he dropped out) at 3%, and Jon Huntsman at 1% round out the field.
These numbers make it clear that Bachmann and Perry have all the momentum in the state, while all the other candidates are losing steam. Perry wasn’t even tested when we polled Wisconsin in May and Bachmann’s up 9 points now from her 11% standing then. Everyone else is on the decline- Pawlenty’s fall was the worst, down 8 points from 11% in May to now 3%. You can see why he dropped out.
Palin’s support is down 5 points, Romney, Paul, and Gingrich are each down 4, Cain’s down 3, and Huntsman’s down 1. At least in Wisconsin Perry and Bachmann are clearly sucking the wind out of the rest of the field and it’s going to be interesting to see if that’s the case everywhere in polling over the next couple weeks.
Another poor showing for Mitt Romney in an early GOP primary state after Texas Governor Rick Perry’s recent entrance into the Presidential race.
And, this poll assumes a Sarah Palin candidacy which at this time would likely be siphoning votes away from Bachmann and Perry.
If you take Palin out of the picture Bachmann gains even more steam, getting 24% to 20% for Perry, 17% for Romney, and 10% for Gingrich.
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President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Perry 29% Vs. Romney 18% Vs. Bachmann 13%
According to the latest Rasmussen Poll.
Texas Governor Rick Perry, the new face in the race for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination, has jumped to a double-digit lead over Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann with the other announced candidates trailing even further behind.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary voters, taken Monday night, finds Perry with 29% support. Romney, the former Massachusetts governor who ran unsuccessfully for the GOP presidential nomination in 2008, earns 18% of the vote, while Bachmann, the Minnesota congresswoman who won the high-profile Ames Straw Poll in Iowa on Saturday, picks up 13%.
Texas Congressman Ron Paul, who was a close second to Bachmann on Saturday, has the support of nine percent (9%) of Likely Primary Voters, followed by Georgia businessman Herman Cain at six percent (6%) and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich with five percent (5%). Rick Santorum, former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania, and ex-Utah Governor Jon Huntsman each get one percent (1%) support, while Michigan Congressman Thaddeus McCotter comes in statistically at zero.
Sixteen percent (16%) of primary voters remain undecided.
An Uh Oh moment for the presumed front-runner Mitt Romney.
Is there any wonder why Karl Rove said last night that he exepcted others to enter the race? In fact, rumors have been plentiful today that Representative Paul Ryan is now considering the race.
Wisconsin congressman Paul Ryan is strongly considering a run for president. Ryan, who has been quietly meeting with political strategists to discuss a bid over the past three months, is on vacation in Colorado discussing a prospective run with his family. Ryan’s concerns about the effects of a presidential campaign – and perhaps a presidency – on his family have been his primary focus as he thinks through his political future.
Then, there continues to be the real wild card candidate, Sarah Palin and Rudy Giuliani who likely would run, if Palin does.
Stay tuned…….
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Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa Proposes Driving the Rest of California Business to Texas
Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, left, and Los Angeles County Supervisor Zev Yaroslavsky hold souvenir concrete chips as they celebrate the demolition of two lanes of the Mulholland Drive bridge over Interstate 405 ahead of schedule in Los Angeles Sunday, July 17, 2011. The event that many feared would be the “Carmageddon” of epic traffic jams cruised calmly toward a finish Sunday as bridge work on the Los Angeles roadway was completed 16 hours ahead of schedule and officials reopened a 10-mile stretch of one of the nation’s busiest freeways
Oh, I mean Mayor Villar has proposed to modify California’s Proposition 13 for business property taxes.In what could be an initial foray into statewide politics, Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa called Tuesday for a renewal of progressive politics in California in the nation, including an overhaul of the state’s iconic limit on property taxes, Proposition 13.
“Progressives have to start thinking – and acting – big again,” Villaraigosa declared in prepared remarks for the Sacramento Press Club, to counteract anti-tax and anti-government drives by the Tea Party and other conservative blocs.
“If the Tea Party in Washington and their counterparts here in Sacramento are intent on pitching jobs overboard in the mindless pursuit of ideology over country, we have to be willing to stand and defend our people,” Villaraigosa said, adding, “And yes, that means making a case for new revenue to sustain long-term investment.”
Villaraigosa was particularly critical of the spending cuts that Gov. Jerry Brown and the Legislature’s Democrats made to balance the state budget after their efforts to extend some state taxes were rejected by Republicans. Those cuts, he said, will damage California’s ability to educate its children and remain economically competitive.
“Governor Brown, I say we need to have the courage to test the voltage in some of these so-called ‘third-rail’ issues, beginning with Proposition 13,” Villaraigosa told the press club. “We need to strengthen Proposition 13 and get it back to the original idea of protecting homeowners, Proposition 13 was never intended to be a corporate tax giveaway but that is what is has become.”
Some Democrats have backed changes in Proposition 13 that would remove, or at least modify, its protections for business property, but Brown has not signed onto that drive. He was governor when Proposition 13 passed in 1978 and although he opposed it prior to the election, after its passage he declared himself to be a “born-again tax cutter” and became a champion of state tax cuts and spending limits.
Does Villaraigosa who is termed out for another term as the Los Angeles Mayor, really think he has a shot at the California Governorship? And, by going to the LEFT of Jerry Brown, Lt. Governor and former San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom and/or Attorney General Kamala Harris?
I guess so.
But, Texas Governor Rick Perry must be licking his chops for all of the California businesses planning to move out of state, once this massive property tax increase hits the ballot.
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President 2012: Why Rudy Giuliani Continues to Consider a Presidential Race
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has been quietly but steadily traveling to New Hampshire discussing his long shot Presidential ambitions. But, is this a Quixotic attempt to stay relevant or is there something more?Looking at the GOP nomination calendar, it may indeed be something more.
Now, Texas Governor Rick Perry and Rudy are friends. Perry endorsed Rudy’s Presidential race in 2008 and I do not know how this calculus works. Nor, do I know whether Sarah Palin will actually enter the Presidential arena.
But, let us assume that Sarah Palin runs and Rudy enters the race as a moderate alternative to Sarah and Michele Bachmann.
Can Rudy Giuliani win the nomination? Or, at least have a shot?
The short answer is: Rudy Giuliani can either win or determine who the 2012 Presidential nominee will be.
Let’s look at the GOP primary nomination calendar.
Here are the early states.There are two things you really need to pay attention to here. First, note the states with asterisks. The RNC has decided to strip half of the delegates from any state that holds a primary or caucus before March 1, other than Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, or Nevada. Some states are considering pushing their primaries back, although these also tend to be the more moderate states, like Wisconsin and New Jersey. The more conservative states seem to be hanging tough, for now. In other words, you could end up with some of the more conservative states in the GOP electorate losing clout at the convention.
Please note the states of New Hampshire, Florida and New Jersey in the early state category where Rudy Giuliani will definitely win some delegates (remember these races are proportional contests – not winner take all).
I can see a scenario where the more conservative candidates of Perry, Bachmann, and Palin split the conservative wing of the party and Giuliani beats or remains a close second to Mitt Romney after the early contests.
Next, come the next tier of elections in March:
Here there are sufficient large and moderate GOP states to provide delegates to a Giuliani candidacy – Illinois, Michigan, Massachusetts and Vermont. Remember again, that the Republican National Committee has ruled that states who conduct primaries prior to April 1 must allocate their delegates proportionately.
Again, a Giuliani candidacy can remain credible with maybe not the plurality of delegates, but a sufficient amount leading into the post-April primaries:
Note that these post-April primary contests are considerably more moderate on political orientation and include New York and California. These are both states that Giuliani could win all of the delegates since they might become winner take all contests. Rudy would also do well in the other Eastern and Far West states, including Oregon, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Washington.
Giuliani could either gather a plurality of delegates by the end of the primary season and unite with a conservative candidate (namely Rick Perry, his friend) as his Vice President selection and go into the Florida GOP Convention with a majority of delegates.
Or, Rudy could broker his delegates to the “will” of the convention and accept the Vice Presidency.
Sean Trende over at Real Clear Politics begins his piece with the meme of how well Romney will do against Rick Perry.I think Sean has it a little wrong.
He has just made the case for a Rudy Giuliani candidacy.
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President 2012 GOP North Carolina Poll Watch: Romney 17% Vs. Perry 17% Vs. Palin 17% Vs. Bachmann 9%
According to the latest PPP Poll.
- Rick Perry 17%
- Mitt Romney 17%
- Michele Bachmann 9%
- Sarah Palin 17%
- Ron Paul 7%
- Herman Cain 11%
- Newt Gingrich 10%
- Tim Pawlenty 2%
- Jon Huntsman 1%
With Sarah Palin out of the race:
- Mitt Romney 16%
- Rick Perry 17%
- Michele Bachmann 17%
- Newt Gingrich 11%
- Ron Paul 11%
- Tim Pawlenty 4%
- Herman Cain 9%
- Jon Huntsman 2%
Another good initial poll for Texas Governor Rick Perry. It looks like he goes into North Carolina in a very good position with both Bachmann and Romney fading in the most recent polls.
Only two days into the race and in North Carolina, Rick Perry can be considered a co-front runner.
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President 2012 GOP Colorado Poll Watch: Romney 20% Vs. Perry 20% Vs. Bachmann 12% Vs. Palin 11%
According to the latest PPP Poll.
- Rick Perry 20%
- Mitt Romney 20%
- Michele Bachmann 12%
- Sarah Palin 11%
- Ron Paul 8%
- Herman Cain 7%
- Newt Gingrich 6%
- Tim Pawlenty 3%
- Jon Huntsman 2%
With Sarah Palin out of the race:
- Mitt Romney 22%
- Rick Perry 21%
- Michele Bachmann 15%
- Newt Gingrich 9%
- Ron Paul 7%
- Tim Pawlenty 6%
- Herman Cain 5%
- Jon Huntsman 2%
With Texas Governor Rick Perry having just announced his Presidential bid on Saturday, he has already rocketed to be the main challenger to front-runner Mitt Romney. This poll was conducted August 4-7 with Colorado Republican voters. There is a 5.5% margin of error.
The entire poll is here. -
President 2012: Question of the Hour?
Republican presidential candidate Rep. Michele Bachmann (L) and her husband Marcus Bachmann encourage people to vote for her outside the Hilton Coliseum at Iowa State University in Ames, Iowa. Bachmann won the Iowa straw poll on Saturday, in an early boost for her campaign for the White House
Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann has won the Iowa Straw Poll against a competing and non-competing field.
Texas Governor Rick Perry has announced his candidacy for the Presidency at a Red State Conference in South Carolina.So, what is the question of the hour?
As for Romney, the former Massachusetts governor is proving far more formidable than many imagined. He can sidestep an attack. He can reel off a list of policies in a one-minute answer. And to date he has been the contender who most looked and sounded the part of a presidential nominee. Perry can and almost certainly will try to knock Romney on health care and make the pitch that he, rather than Romney, is the most authentic conservative who can beat Obama. But I don’t think that is going to get him very far. For one thing, their position on issues is not likely to differ substantially.
Moreover, those who won’t vote for Romney, for example, because of health care or because they still can’t trust him on social issues, have already drifted to Bachmann. If Perry simply says, “Romney’s not conservative enough,” the question will still remain: Why Perry?
Perry’s task is therefore to prove himself more forceful, appealing, capable and dynamic than both Romney and Bachmann. Romney’s got a seven-point pitch on jobs; Perry has to be more credible (by stressing his own job creation record). Romney sounds solid on national security; Perry must appear more determined. In the same way that Romney seems more presidential than Bachmann, Perry must seem to be a more vivid, effective combatant than Romney.
Perry’s late entry is also a reminder (both in a positive and negative sense for his own fortunes) that the rest of the field is decidedly un-Southern. Romney, Bachmann and the rest of the field, in speech and manner, don’t rekindle the memory of George W. Bush; Perry does. He’ll have to demonstrate he has appeal to non-Texans. It’s telling he announced in South Carolina, but will he wear well in New Hampshire?
It won’t be easy for Perry to rise to the top of the pack.. Romney is well versed on the issues; Perry has gaps (e.g., foreign policy). Romney is a very experienced debater; Perry’s untested. Romney has a private-sector background to point to; Perry does not. Romney at this point has been fully vetted; Perry is going to have to withstand the downpour of unflattering accounts that question how good his record as governor has been. And voters concerned about electability will no doubt worry that Perry’s accent and Texas pride may not play well in all parts of the country.
Perry will have plenty of money, a record of job creation and a persona that matches up with the Tea Party’s populism. The challenge for Perry is to prove himself a superior candidate and the most effective opponent to go up against Obama in the general election. Can he do it? Well, that is the question of the hour.
Well, the race is on and the media campaigns will begin very soon. Whoever, can best frame the issues on television and perform well in the debates will win.
Welcome to the race of 2012.