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President 2012 GOP South Carolina Poll: Rick Perry 31% Vs. Mitt Romney 20% Vs. Michele Bachmann14%
According to the latest Magellan Strategies survey.
Magellan Strategies today released the results of an autodial survey of 637 likely 2012 Republican primary voters in South Carolina. The survey finds Rick Perry leading Mitt Romney by 11 points. Among all voters, Rick Perry has 31%, Mitt Romney has 20%, and Michele Bachmann is third with 14%. The rest of the Republican field rounds out with Herman Cain with 9%, Newt Gingrich with 5%, Ron Paul and the “Other Candidate” with 4%, Rick Santorum and Jon Huntsman with 2%, and 9% undecided.
Texas Governor Rick Perry has zoomed to the top of the polls. If he can beat Bachmann in Iowa, she may drop out before the South Carolina Primary election. But, then again, if Romney does not win New Hampshire by a substantial margin, he may be dead coming into South Carolina too.
Remember Republicans like to end their Presidential primaries EARLY.
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President 2012 Poll Watch: Tea Party Supporters Are Backing Rick Perry
According to the latest Gallup Poll.Rick Perry’s candidacy has attracted strong initial support from Republicans who identify themselves as supporters of the Tea Party movement. Perry leads by 21 percentage points over the closest contenders among this group, Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann. Among Republicans who say they do not support the Tea Party movement, Romney and Perry are essentially tied.
These results are based on an Aug. 17-21 Gallup poll, which showed Perry overtaking Romney as the front-runner for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination among all Republicans nationwide.
The poll finds that 58% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents identify themselves as supporters of the Tea Party movement, with 36% saying they do not consider themselves supporters. Included among the group of Tea Party supporters is a smaller group — representing 12% of Republicans — who say they are “strong” supporters of the movement. Among this smaller group, Perry’s lead is even greater, 46% to 16%, over Bachmann, with all other candidates in single digits.
Since his announcement, Texas Governor Rick Perry has consolidated his voter support and leaped into the lead in most polls. Perry has frozen out Michele Bachmann as the leader of the Tea Party and may have forestalled a run by Sarah Palin (but we will see about that on September 3rd).
Perry has immediately become the preferred Republican nomination candidate of Tea Party movement supporters and, by extension, those who view government spending and power as the most important issue. He also demonstrates strong appeal to moral values voters, and is competitive with Romney among Republicans rating business and the economy as the most important issue.
Perry will attempt to consolidate the support of these constituencies in the coming months as he begins his nomination campaign in earnest, including participating for the first time in candidate debates next month. Whether he is able to solidify his status as the new front-runner, or whether it turns out to be a temporary response to the excitement generated by his entry into the race, will become apparent in future Gallup updates of Republicans’ nomination preferences.
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President 2012 GOP Florida Poll Watch: Romney 51% Vs. Obama 43% Or Perry 46% Vs. Obama 45%
The 2008 Presidential Electoral College Results
According to the latest Sachs/Masson-Dixon Florida Poll.A new Sachs/Mason-Dixon Florida Poll finds Barack Obama trailing Mitt Romney in America’s biggest battleground and in a dead heat with Texas Gov. Rick Perry among Republicans.
“Unlike 2008, if the election were held today, President Obama would face a stiffer headwind to hold onto Florida and its 29 electoral votes against a top-tier Republican challenger – and that could cost him reelection,” said Ron Sachs, President of Ron Sachs Communications. “Judging by the poll, President Obama’s success in 2008 will be more difficult to duplicate in 2012. The Presidency will go to the candidate with the message that resonates with Florida’s unique and diverse population and the resources to ensure that message is received by voters across the state.”
Among the findings of the August Sachs/Mason-Dixon Florida Poll:
- 51 percent of Floridians would vote for Governor Romney compared to 43 percent for President Obama;
- In a hypothetical matchup with Texas Governor Rick Perry, Perry leads with 46 percent to Obama’s 45 percent
- President Obama leads Congresswoman Michele Bachmann 46 percent to 44 percent
- 41 percent of Floridians approve of President Obama’s job performance while 56 percent disapprove. Fifty five percent of independents disapprove
The GOP Presidential field is looking good in Florida. If they can avoid a messy primary election, then it looks likely for a 29 vote pick up in the Electoral College.
Here is the primary breakdown:
- Mitt Romney 28%
- Rick Perry 21%
- Michelle Bachman 13%
- Herman Cain 7%
- Newt Gingrich 5%
- Ron Paul 4%
- Rick Santorum 2%
- Jon Huntsman –
- Someone else 3%
- Undecided 17%
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President 2012 GOP Iowa Poll Watch: Perry 24% Bachmann 22% Romney 19%
According to the latest Magellan Strategies Poll.
Magellan Strategies today released the results of an autodial survey of 676 likely 2012 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus voters. The survey finds Rick Perry leading Michele Bachmann by 2 points, a statistical tie. Among all voters, Rick Perry has 24%, Michele Bachmann has 22% and Mitt Romney is a close third with 19%. The rest of the Republican field rounds out with Ron Paul with 9%, Herman Cain with 6%, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich with 4%, “Other Candidate” with 3%, Jon Huntsman with 1%, and 8% undecided.
A pretty close race in Iowa.
The CW was Iowa = a Michele Bachmann win.
Looks like Rick Perry will be playing there and may force Romney into a third position.
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President 2012: Rick Perry Will Have to Explain Why Rudy Giuliani Cannot Be His Attorney General
In 2008 Texas Governor Rick Perry endorses Rudy GiulianiI am pro-life but like and supported Rudy Giuliani in 2008. You don’t always agree with a POL on all issues.
Now, Jen Rubin points out a contradiction for the now front-running GOP Presidential candidate Texas Governor Rick Perry.
As other Republican contenders did before him, Texas Gov. Rick Perry signed the Susan B. Anthony List’s antiabortion pledge. That pledge includes this: “Select pro-life appointees for relevant Cabinet and Executive Branch positions, in particular the head of National Institutes of Health, the Department of Justice, and the Department of Health & Human Services.” This would exclude people such as Rudy Giuliani as attorney general. That might be fine for some Republicans, but Perry endorsed Giuliani for president in 2008. Good enough for the Oval Office but not the Justice Department? I asked the Perry campaign to explain but no answer was forthcoming.
What say you Governor?
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President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Perry 29% Vs. Romney 17% Paul 13% Bachmann 10% – Perry Now the Front-Runner
According to the latest Gallup Poll.Shortly after announcing his official candidacy, Texas Gov. Rick Perry has emerged as rank-and-file Republicans’ current favorite for their party’s 2012 presidential nomination. Twenty-nine percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents nationwide say they are most likely to support Perry, with Mitt Romney next, at 17%.
These results are based on an Aug. 17-21 Gallup poll, the first conducted after several important events in the Republican nomination campaign, including the second candidate debate, the Iowa Straw Poll, and Perry’s official entry into the race after months of speculation.
Romney and Perry essentially tied for the lead in late July, based on re-computed preferences that include the current field of announced candidates. Gallup’s official July report, based on the announced field at the time and thus excluding Perry, showed Romney with a 27% to 18% lead over Michele Bachmann. Romney enjoyed an even wider, 17-point lead in June over Herman Cain among the field of announced candidates (Gallup did not include Perry among the nominee choices before July).
Perry’s official announcement may have overshadowed the Aug. 13 Iowa Straw Poll, which Bachmann won narrowly over Ron Paul. Neither candidate appears to have gotten a big boost from the straw poll results; Paul’s support was up slightly from July and Bachmann’s down slightly.
What about the GOP demographics?
Perry is a strong contender among key Republican subgroups. Older Republicans and those living in the South show especially strong support for him, at or near 40%. Conservative Republicans strongly favor Perry over Romney, but liberal and moderate Republicans support the two about equally. Perry’s support is also above average among religious Republicans.
The chart:
What is most interesting to me is the weakness of Perry and Romney in the East. Is there room in the field for an Eastern based candidate like former New York Governor George Pataki or former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani? And, who would that hurt the most?
While the eight announced candidates continue to campaign in key early primary and caucus states, Sarah Palin and Rudy Giuliani are two prominent Republican politicians who have indicated they are still contemplating getting into the race. Palin and Giuliani each receive about 10% of the vote when included in the nomination preference question, with Perry still holding a significant lead over Romney, 25% to 14%, on this measure.
With them in the race, Perry jumps to an 11 point lead over Romney. Also, remember that Rudy was endorsed by Perry in 2008 and that they are friends.
The chart:
So, what does this all mean?
Texas Governor Rick Perry has vaulted into being the front-runner for the GOP Presidential nomination.
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President 2012 Poll Watch: Obama 49% Vs. Perry 43% or Romney 45% Vs. Obama 45%
According to the latest PPP Poll.
Rick Perry is looking increasingly like the Republican favorite for President- he led in the Iowa poll we released this morning and he leads by double digits in the national poll we’ll release tomorrow. The biggest beneficiary of Perry’s rise? It might be Barack Obama.
In our first national poll pitting the two Obama leads Perry 49-43. That six point advantage is pretty comparable to Obama’s margin of victory over John McCain. Perry has certainly come on strong with Republicans but independents view him negatively already by an almost 2:1 margin, 29/55, and Democrats pretty universally give him bad ratings at a 10/71 spread. As a result Obama leads Perry thanks in large part to a 24 point advantage with independents at 56-32.
It’s a different story for Obama when it comes to the match up against Romney. There he can only achieve a tie at 45%, and because there are a lot more undecided Republicans than Democrats in all likelihood Romney would come out ahead if voters had to go to the polls and really make a decision today. Romney does better than Perry because he holds Obama to only a 9 point advantage with independents, 48-39, and because he loses only 5% of the Republican vote to Obama where Perry loses 10%.
My Oh My.
On the day where Rick Perry is seen to be pulling away from Mitt Romney, this new general election poll gives Romney some TV ad fodder as being the most electable alternative to President Obama.
This race is so on…..
One big reason Obama’s doing pretty well in these match ups is the Hispanic vote. Exit polls in 2008 showed him winning it by a 36 point margin over McCain but he builds on that in all of these match ups with a 37 point advantage over Romney at 66-29, a 46 point one over Perry at 72-26, a 48 point edge over Bachmann at 74-26, a 49 point lead on Palin at 74-25, and a 53 point spread on Herman Cain at 75-22. This is a good example of what Republican strategist Mike Murphy has described as the economics vs. demographics tension for next year’s election. The economy could sink Obama but at the same time an ever growing expanding Hispanic vote that he wins by a huge margin could be enough to let him eek out a second term. It’s certainly propping him up on this poll.
I wonder how this demographic breaks out, if either former Florida Governor Jeb Bush or Senator Marco Rubio, who speaks at the Reagan Library tonight, are added as a Vice Presidential pick?
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President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Rick Perry Rises in Recognition and Has a High Positive Intensity Score
According to the latest Gallup Poll.Texas Gov. Rick Perry is now recognized by 67% of Republicans and Republican leaners nationwide, an increase of 13 percentage points from two weeks ago. Still, six of the other nine candidates or potential candidates are better known than Perry, led by Sarah Palin (97%) and Rudy Giuliani (91%). Of the announced candidates, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, and Michele Bachmann are best known.
The latest results are based on Aug. 8-21 Gallup Daily tracking of 2012 Republican candidate images. Perry officially entered the race on Aug. 13. Prior to that announcement, 54% of Republicans were familiar with him. He is one of two candidates who have seen their recognition levels increase significantly over that time, a period that included the second candidate debate on Aug. 11 and the Iowa Straw Poll on Aug. 13. Bachmann, the winner of that straw poll, saw her recognition score increase five points.
Good polling news for Governor Perry today. He is leading in the latest Iowa GOP poll and a national poll to be released tomorrow will have him leading nationally overtaking former front-runner Mitt Romney.
As Perry has become better known over the past two weeks, his Positive Intensity Score has been stable in the low 20s — now 22, compared with 23 two weeks ago. That score is based on the percentage of Republicans familiar with Perry who have a strongly favorable opinion of him minus the percentage with a strongly unfavorable opinion.
Perry’s Positive Intensity Score is higher than all other Republicans’ except Herman Cain’s. Cain’s 28 — tied with his score from late May/early June — is the highest Gallup has measured for any candidate this year.
Here is the chart.
So, what does this mean?Texas Governor Rick Perry is off to a good start and now has a target on his back, primarily from Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann. There appears now to be NO front-runner in this race.
Perry is off to a good start as a now-official candidate, seeing his familiarity among Republicans increase significantly in the last two weeks while maintaining a high Positive Intensity Score. The challenge for him is to keep that score up, now that he is actively campaigning. With that exposure comes the inevitable media scrutiny regarding his issue positions, personal qualities, and record for a broader audience, many of whom may not view them positively.
To date, Cain and Bachmann are the only candidates who have seen a rise in positive intensity as they became better known, although Bachmann’s scores have declined in recent weeks as her recognition level has surpassed three-quarters of Republicans.
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President 2012 GOP Iowa Poll Watch: Perry 22% Vs. Romney 19% Vs. Bachmann 18% Vs. Paul 16%
According to the latest PPP Poll.
The race is pretty close four ways in Iowa but Rick Perry is the new favorite among Republican voters in the state. Among announced candidates he’s at 22% to 19% for Mitt Romney, 18% for Michele Bachmann, and 16% for Ron Paul. Further back are Herman Cain at 7%, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum at 5%, and Jon Huntsman at 3%.
If you throw Sarah Palin into the mix the numbers are pretty similar with Perry at 21%, Romney at 18%, Bachmann at 15%, Paul at 12%, and Palin registering at only 10%.
Looks like Texas Governor Rick Perry has leap frogged over Michele Bachmann to become the anti-Romney candidate. Bachmann is fading even after her Ames Straw Poll win.
Now, the question is will Sarah Palin jump into this race and if so, how will she play in light of her lower poll numbers? Will Palin even be a player in Iowa?
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President 2012 Poll Watch: Romney 48% Vs. Obama 46%, Perry 47% Vs. Obama 47%
According to the latest Gallup Poll.President Barack Obama is closely matched against each of four possible Republican opponents when registered voters are asked whom they would support if the 2012 presidential election were held today. Mitt Romney leads Obama by two percentage points, 48% to 46%, Rick Perry and Obama are tied at 47%, and Obama edges out Ron Paul and Michele Bachmann by two and four points, respectively.
These prospective election ballots — measured Aug. 17-18, well over a year before the Nov. 6, 2012, election — indicate that the race for president at this point is generally competitive, with voters fairly evenly divided in their preference for giving Obama a second term or electing a Republican candidate. Even though the four Republican candidates tested have varying degrees of name recognition, they all fare roughly the same.
Gallup’s generic presidential ballot — measured six times this year — shows a close race between Obama and a generic “Republican presidential candidate,” although there have been survey-to-survey variations on this measure, with the Republican candidate leading in June and July.
This a poor poll for President Obama’s re-election efforts. Just about any GOP Presidential candidate, including Ron Paul are within striking distance.
Plus, this poses a dilemma of sorts because who does the LEFT attack when any of the candidates that are running for the GOP nomination are in a good position to beat you.
President Obama is at the moment in a rough parity position when registered voters are asked whether they would vote for him in election matchups against four potential Republican candidates. Romney fares slightly better than the other GOP candidates, and Bachmann slightly worse, but these are not large differences. Gallup research shows that these types of election measures at this stage in the campaign are not highly stable, and one can expect changes in the relative positioning of Obama and various GOP candidates in the months ahead.