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President 2012: Is Sarah Palin Willing to Roll the Dice?
Say Good Bye Sarah?
Well, is she? Because of Palin loses in Iowa and New Hampshire, she is essentially done in politics and her celebrity status is destroyed – put a fork in her Fox News gig and her huge speaking fees.The main problem for Palin is how profoundly she’s alienated the Republican Party’s elites — the elected officials, fundraisers, political professionals, activist group leaders and commentators who help shape mass opinion on the right — since her 2008 vice presidential campaign. Instead of cultivating them and seeking to use her newfound celebrity to build a genuine national political operation, she pushed them all away, preferring to chart her own erratic course. The result has been a public relations nightmare. Relying on her own instincts, Palin has found herself in one needless, self-induced and no-win controversy after another, with virtually no opinion-shaping elites using their clout to defend her. This was best illustrated in the aftermath of the Gabrielle Giffords shooting in January, which influential conservative commentators took as an opportunity to inflict serious political damage on Palin.
Palin is now saddled with a truly poisonous level of unpopularity among all voters who aren’t conservative Republicans. And even within that group, her image isn’t what it used to be. If she were to mount a campaign, she would be entirely on her own, just like she has been since 2008, and that’s a recipe for disaster.
So, if Sarah Palin runs, she will be desperate for a win. Polls over the past six months have consistently showed her behind either Romney, Bachmann, Perry and/or RON PAUL in the early primary states.
In running, Sarah will be rolling the dice and hoping not to crap out.
If she jumped in, polls would initially show her in contention, but she’d be running a structure- and discipline-free campaign with no support from GOP opinion-shapers and on a message that really isn’t unique. Republican voters who haven’t yet figured it out would realize she’s not a viable option and abandon her for a candidate who seems to have a better chance. If she were to then suffer humiliating defeats in Iowa and New Hampshire, Palin might suddenly find that the media isn’t nearly as interested in her every tweet and Facebook post as it once was.
In other words, those who just want her to go away should consider a Palin presidential campaign an investment: You’d have to deal with a few weeks (or maybe even months) of saturation coverage, but there’d be a good chance it would all end with Palin’s presence in our lives severely and permanently diminished.
Are you willing to gamble, Sarah?
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President 2012: What If Sarah Palin Runs?
The latest Iowa poll is clear – Sarah Palin places behind Rick Perry, Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann. I don’t really think this is Palin’s cycle and if she runs and loses she is done.
Will Sarah roll the dice?
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President 2012 GOP Iowa Poll Watch: Perry 22% Vs. Romney 19% Vs. Bachmann 18% Vs. Paul 16%
According to the latest PPP Poll.
The race is pretty close four ways in Iowa but Rick Perry is the new favorite among Republican voters in the state. Among announced candidates he’s at 22% to 19% for Mitt Romney, 18% for Michele Bachmann, and 16% for Ron Paul. Further back are Herman Cain at 7%, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum at 5%, and Jon Huntsman at 3%.
If you throw Sarah Palin into the mix the numbers are pretty similar with Perry at 21%, Romney at 18%, Bachmann at 15%, Paul at 12%, and Palin registering at only 10%.
Looks like Texas Governor Rick Perry has leap frogged over Michele Bachmann to become the anti-Romney candidate. Bachmann is fading even after her Ames Straw Poll win.
Now, the question is will Sarah Palin jump into this race and if so, how will she play in light of her lower poll numbers? Will Palin even be a player in Iowa?
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President 2012: Sarah Palin – “GAME ON!”
Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin greets guests following a television appearance at the Iowa State Fair in Des Moines, Iowa August 12, 2011
Well, Sarah says it on a new radio ad, on air in Iowa today.An Iowa-based Tea Party group on Monday launched a radio advertising campaign in the nation’s first voting state to promote a Sept. 3 rally, which is expected to draw thousands of supporters to hear former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin give the keynote address.
Tea Party of America’s 60-second radio ad opens with the famous response that Ben Franklin reportedly gave a woman who asked what kind of government had been formed at the close of the Constitutional Convention in 1787: “A republic, madam, if you can keep it.”
The campaign-style ad then highlights President Obama’s vow — infamous in Tea Party circles — to “fundamentally” transform the United States.
“No, we must restore America and restore her honor,” Palin is heard saying in response.
The ad’s narrator notes that Palin will speak at the Labor Day weekend rally at the National Balloon Classic field in Indianola, just south of Des Moines. “Tea Party of America will be joining with you to take our nation back,” the narrator says.
The radio spot then directs interested parties to RSVP online for the free event and advises them to get there early, as the gates will open at 8 a.m. for the 11 a.m. event.
“Game on!” Palin shouts at the end of the ad in a sound bite taken from a Tea Party rally in Madison, Wis., in April.
I guess we will have to wait for the real deal on September 3rd. Either Sarah announces on this day or she is out.
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Day By Day August 22, 2011 – Odds
Day By Day by Chris MuirChris, Sarah Palin may very well run but according to most polls would be running against “all” odds. In a multi-candidate field she will do well in the early proportional GOP primary elections, but whether she can win at the GOP Convention is another story.I guess we will see on September 3rd in Iowa, although reports are now coming out that are downplaying this event.
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Day By Day August 21, 2011
Day By Day by Chris MuirBanco – you betcha…..When Sarah Palin enters the Presidential race for 2012, President Obama will indeed have his hands full. I mean., who does the LEFT attack?
- Romney?
- Perry?
- Bachmann?
- Newt?
or……
Sarah Palin?
Palin’s September 3rd speechin Iowa is the beginning of the end for “The One.”
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Day By Day August 20, 2012 – Open Season
Day By Day by Chris MuirThe issue of illegal immigration and the pandering by President Obama will be an issue in the 2102 Presidential race. You see, Obama needs to win those Hispanic votes in Florida and New Mexico for his re-election campaign. And, he hopes to fund raise in the Hispanic communities in California where he is a lock to win in this very “blue” state.With regards to Sarah Palin, I think she will run – as other D.C. pundits have said.
Former Bush advisor Karl Rove says he believes former Alaska governor Sarah Palin will enter the Republican presidential race sometime around Labor Day. Appearing on Fox News Saturday morning, Rove said Palin “has a schedule next week that looks like that of a candidate, not a celebrity.” Rove also cited a new campaign-style video Palin has released on her recent visit to the Iowa State Fair as evidence Palin is gearing up for a run.
Palin will be the keynote speaker at the Tea Party of America’s “Restoring America” event in Iowa September 3. The event location was recently moved from Waukee, Iowa, to Indianola, Iowa to accommodate a larger crowd.
“This is her last chance,” Rove said. “She either gets in or gets out [after the Iowa visit]. I think she gets in.”
A late entry into Iowa always raises questions about whether a candidate has the time to raise money, build an organization and meet voters face-to-face. Rove was asked whether a Palin candidacy might operate from “a different playbook” — that is, one that does not touch the traditional bases in Iowa. “She thinks the normal rules don’t apply,” Rove said. “If you’re Sarah Palin, you just show up and the money comes and the organization comes and the people come.”
Chris, congrats on your fund raising campaign. In this poor economy, where many are struggling, it is refreshing to see that people will sacrifice to support your quality work at Day By Day.
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President 2012 Video: Sarah Palin Organizer Confident She Will Run?
“Iowa Passion” Sarah Palin at the Iowa State Fair last weekNobody really knows what Sarah Palin will do but there is a lot of speculation and buzz today.
Sarah Palin’s Sept. 3 event has been relocated from Waukee to Indianola to better accommodate a larger crowd, organizers said.
Palin is the keynote speaker at the Tea Party of America’s “Restoring America” event, which is free and open to the public.
The event was originally scheduled at Hawkeye Antique Acres in Waukee. The event is now scheduled from 11 a.m. to 2 p.m. at the National Balloon Classic field, east of Indianola.
There has been speculation that Palin, a former governor of Alaska and 2008 Republican vice presidential candidate, could use the event as an opportunity to announce whether she plans to run for president in 2012.
“I don’t know if she’s going to announce or not,” said Charlie Gruschow, co-founder of Tea Party of America. “But whether or not she announces, we’re going to have a huge event.”
I think she will run.
With Rick Perry in the race, a multi-candidate field with two other conservatives and one moderate (Mitt Romney) is a “perfect” storm for her.
But, I. also, think that Rudy Giuliani may then run or endorse Rick Perry and tie up the delegates in Florida, East and Far West.
The next few weeks will prove to be a very interesting time.
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President 2012 GOP California Poll Watch: Romney 22% Vs. Perry 15% Vs. Palin 10% Vs. Bachmann 8.5%
According to the latest Probolsky Research Poll.
An interesting poll with a small sample size, includes Sarah Palin and does NOT include Rudy Giuliani who is very popular in California.So, I say take it as – meh……
It is likely, but NOT highly likely that with a crowded GOP field, the California Presidential Primary Election which will be held in June 2012 will actually matter. Most candidates in the GOP field and certainly the party would like the nomination contest to be over long before then.
Why?
California is a very large state and the media markets extremely expensive. Plus, California is going for Obama no matter what and any cross-over campaigning for the general election will not matter.
Also, remember, the California Primary has historically been “winner take all” and having the election so late will allow the party to set the rules in this manner
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President 2012 GOP Wisconsin Poll Watch: Perry 20% Vs. Bachmann 20% Vs. Romney 13%
According to the latest PPP Poll.
Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann are tied for the Republican Presidential lead in Wisconsin at 20%…with Mitt Romney all the way back at 13%. Sarah Palin at 11%, Herman Cain at 7%, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul at 6%, Tim Pawlenty (the poll was conducted before he dropped out) at 3%, and Jon Huntsman at 1% round out the field.
These numbers make it clear that Bachmann and Perry have all the momentum in the state, while all the other candidates are losing steam. Perry wasn’t even tested when we polled Wisconsin in May and Bachmann’s up 9 points now from her 11% standing then. Everyone else is on the decline- Pawlenty’s fall was the worst, down 8 points from 11% in May to now 3%. You can see why he dropped out.
Palin’s support is down 5 points, Romney, Paul, and Gingrich are each down 4, Cain’s down 3, and Huntsman’s down 1. At least in Wisconsin Perry and Bachmann are clearly sucking the wind out of the rest of the field and it’s going to be interesting to see if that’s the case everywhere in polling over the next couple weeks.
Another poor showing for Mitt Romney in an early GOP primary state after Texas Governor Rick Perry’s recent entrance into the Presidential race.
And, this poll assumes a Sarah Palin candidacy which at this time would likely be siphoning votes away from Bachmann and Perry.
If you take Palin out of the picture Bachmann gains even more steam, getting 24% to 20% for Perry, 17% for Romney, and 10% for Gingrich.