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President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Sarah Palin Still a Formidable Presence Among Republicans
According to the latest Gallup Poll.Sarah Palin — who has not yet announced whether she will run for president — remains a formidable presence among Republicans nationwide. She is almost universally recognized, and her current Positive Intensity Score ties her with Mitt Romney, trailing only Herman Cain and Michele Bachmann.
A Newsweek cover story on the former Alaska governor and 2008 vice presidential candidate quoted Palin as saying, “I believe that I can win a national election,” and that she is still thinking about running.
Palin’s high 95% name recognition — the highest of any candidate or potential candidate Gallup is tracking — is one of her major political attributes. Her Positive Intensity Score, currently 15, has been in the 13 to 19 range throughout the year so far. This puts her behind Cain and Bachmann, but in roughly the same range as Romney. At the same time, Palin generates stronger emotions — both positive and negative — than Romney does. His Positive Intensity Score is based on the difference between the 18% of those who recognize him who have a strongly favorable opinion and the 3% who have a strongly unfavorable opinion. A significantly higher 25% of Republicans who recognize Palin have a strongly favorable opinion of her and a higher 9% have a strongly unfavorable opinion (Palin’s net Positive Intensity Score is 15 because of rounding when precise numbers are calculated).
Palin’s 25% strongly favorable rating is the highest of any candidate tested in the latest two-week average, from June 27-July 10, one percentage point ahead of Cain’s 24% and five points ahead of Bachmann’s 20%.
But, Sarah will have to do more than give interviews to Newsweek. She will have to run and run against Michele Bachmann and Mitt Romney. At least two candidates are waiting for Sarah to fish or cut bait in this race: Rick Perry, and Rudy Giuliani.
I continue to doubt she will run and if she does, Palin will hope that Perry and Giuliani jump in as well.
Sarah will do well in a multi-way race in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida.
The GOP field to some degree is in a holding pattern, with candidates such as Palin, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani sitting on the sidelines while pondering their decisions on whether to officially get into the race. If any or all of these politicians do decide to run, the nature of Republicans’ sentiments about the candidates and whom they favor for their party’s nomination may change. At the moment, Cain and Bachmann generate the highest levels of enthusiasm among rank-and-file Republicans who recognize them, with Palin and Romney trailing them. Of the remaining announced candidates, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul do best, while Jon Huntsman, Gingrich, and Gary Johnson are lagging behind in terms of Positive Intensity.
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President 2012 GOP New Hampshire Poll Watch: Romney 25% Bachmann 18% Palin 11% Paul 9% Perry 7% Cain 6%
According to the latest PPP Poll.
When PPP polled New Hampshire in April Michele Bachmann was stuck at 4%. She’s gained 14 points over the last three months and now finds herself within single digits of Mitt Romney. Romney continues to lead the way in the state with 25% to 18% for Bachmann, 11% for Sarah Palin, 9% for Ron Paul, 7% for Rick Perry and Herman Cain, 6% for Jon Huntsman and Tim Pawlenty, and 4% for Newt Gingrich.
Bachmann’s surge in New Hampshire is being built on the back of the Tea Party. Among voters identifying themselves as members of that movement she’s leading the way at 25% with Palin and Romney tying for second at 16%, and Cain also placing in double digits at 11%. Only 33% of Republican primary voters in the state identify themselves as Tea Partiers though and with the remaining folks Romney’s way ahead with 33% to 13% for Bachmann, and 10% for Huntsman and Paul.
Romney’s starting to show some signs of weakness in New Hampshire. His support is down 12 points from 37% on the iteration of our April poll that didn’t include Mike Huckabee or Donald Trump. His favorability numbers are headed in the wrong direction as well. He’s dropped a net 18 points from +49 at 68/19 to +31 at 60/29. He’s certainly still the front runner in the state but he’s not looking as inevitable as he did a few months ago.
Sorry I am a little late to this poll, but I have been traveling and now blogging from Indianapolis. Indiana.
This is quite a chance in circumstances for Mitt Romney. He has decided early on not to compete in the first in the nation caucus in Iowa, certain in his own mind to win the first in the nation primary election in New Hampshire. However, Michele Bachmann has thrown a monkey wrench into this plan.
Now, it is uncertain as to what will happen when Texas Governor Rick Perry officially enters the race and then if Sarah Palin gets in after Perry enters.
Exit question: Is Romney a safe bet to win New Hampshire by a large enough margin to show momentum going into South Carolina and Florida?
We shall see.
New Hampshire may become Romney’s one and only early win and fade thereafter.
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President 2012: Texas Governor Rick Perry Buying Space for the Ames Iowa Straw Poll
Texas Gov. Rick Perry speaks at the Lincoln Dinner, an annual fundraising event for the New York GOP, Tuesday, June 14, 2011 in New York. Perry stirred speculation Tuesday that he would seek the 2012 Republican presidential nomination, championing his state’s economy before a packed GOP gathering in New York and telling a television interviewer he would engage in a “thought process” before deciding whether to join the field
Well, it is the Draft Perry folks since the Texas Governor has not officially made up his mind on whether to enter the Presidential race.An advocacy group that wants Texas Republican Rick Perry to run for president is seeking a presence at the Iowa straw poll this summer.
Americans for Rick Perry is taking steps to purchase a vendor spot, organizer Bob Schuman told The Des Moines Register today.
“We intend to have some kind of impact at the straw poll,” Schuman said. “We just don’t know what that is yet, but we’re working on it.”
The straw poll is a test of campaign strength and candidate popularity. It’s also a fundraiser for the Republican Party of Iowa.
Campaigns had one opportunity, on June 23, to buy a physical space on the straw poll campus, which guaranteed a right to address the audience from the main stage and locked in a line on the ballot.
Party rules don’t allow campaigns to buy spaces after that date.
Vendors and advocacy groups still can, but the purchase doesn’t mean a candidate will be allowed to speak or get a slot on the ballot.
Perry’s name has circulated as someone Republicans would like to see jump into the race.
Americans for Rick Perry, a 527 independent expenditure group that’s unaffiliated with Perry, is raising money on Perry’s behalf while he contemplates a presidential bid.
Schuman flew to Iowa Wednesday and has met with Jenifer Bowen of Iowa Right to Life, Bob Vander Plaats of the Family Leader, Steve Scheffler of the Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition and others, he said.
The Texas governor is keeping his options open and the Team Sarah Palin is keeping a close eye on Perry.
If Perry runs, then there will be a happy dance in Wasilla because Perry undoubtedly will draw from the same base as Michele Bachmann. Sarah could then enter the fray and capture a plurality in Iowa, lose in New Hampshire and then test Romney in South Carolina and Florida.
Just as an aside, should Sarah Palin run, I think Rudy Giuliani enters the race maybe almost guaranteeing a long, protracted primary season and/or a “brokered” GOP convention.
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President 2012: Will Michele Bachmann Drive Mitt Romney to the GOP Nomination?
Yes, as I have written before here.Therefore, I agree with this analysis from Larry Sabato et. al..
In 2012 the Republican presidential nomination calendar starts off with Iowa, followed by New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. Florida is jockeying for a top position as well. As Chart 1 indicates, Iowa’s GOP electorate is the most conservative of those five states.
Iowa and South Carolina are dominated by evangelical Christian voters who could be more supportive of a religious conservative like Bachmann. New Hampshire and Florida, on the other hand, are more favorable for a moderate candidate such as Romney. (Nevada’s caucusgoers, a quarter of whom were Mormon, went for Romney by a wide margin in 2008.) Remember that ex-Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, an evangelical favorite, won Iowa in 2008, but that proved to be the peak of his campaign.
When considering the makeup of the early states, the map looks reasonably well-suited for Romney, so long as he wins New Hampshire, where polling indicates he is a huge favorite at this early stage. He likely will be favored to do well again in Nevada, and although evangelical-rich South Carolina will be a challenge for Romney, he could make up for a setback there in friendlier Florida.
A Bachmann victory in Iowa could eliminate at least one of Romney’s rivals, potentially even Pawlenty. Romney then could confront Bachmann on friendlier territory in New Hampshire, where her religious conservatism would not play quite as well. That would put Romney in the position of John McCain in 2008, as the ideologically questionable front-runner fending off a challenger more beloved by the base (Bachmann as 2012’s Huckabee). Romney is betting that the GOP establishment will get behind him this time, as it did for McCain four years ago.
Perhaps Romney, who is not participating in the Ames, IA straw poll in August, will mimic McCain’s path in another way: effectively skipping Iowa and letting Bachmann do his work there for him.
Will this strategy work? Can Romney truly count on rescue by a party establishment nervous about offending the Tea Party? Will GOP voters even listen to party and elected leaders after all those grassroots victories in 2010? These and so many more questions will keep us occupied for months to come.
And, then there may be a wild card of Sarah Palin in there. I don’t think Texas Governor Rick Perry will be much of a threat to Mitt Romney.
But, Sarah would…..
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President 2012: Sarah Palin Will Run for President?
Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, right, greets supporters in downtown Pella, Iowa on Tuesday, June 28, 2011, before attending the first public screening of “The Undefeated,” a documentary about her rise in politics. Palin said Tuesday she’s still thinking about whether to run for president, dismissing a comment from her daughter that she’d already made up her mind
Yes, according to her “man in Iowa.”Sarah Palin’s husband Todd may be the “First Dude” but according to some the former governor has “a man in Iowa” and that man says the hockey mom will definitely run for the White House in 2012.
Peter Singleton, a lawyer from California is the mysterious “man in Iowa” who says he has never met Palin but has been working tirelessly to help the conservative organize in the Hawkeye state.
Singleton who helped organize Wednesday’s premiere screening of the Palin film “The Undefeated” seems to have no problem comparing the former beauty queen with the likes of Winston Churchill and George Washington.
“She’s the right person at this time,” Singleton told the Telegraph Wednesday in Iowa. “If you look back at Churchill’s time, in 1938 Churchill was unelectable, in 1940 he was indispensable.
“I can’t see her sitting this one out,” he added. “The stakes are too high. It goes back to 1940. Can you see Churchill sitting it out? It’s unthinkable. Can you see George Washington in 1776 sitting it out? Unthinkable. He wanted to be back on his farm but they said we need you to be president of the republic.”
Well, maybe. Or is it wishful thinking and a trial balloon?
Hard to say, but we will know when Fox News suspends her.
So, what do you say on a 4th of July announcement?
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President 2012 Poll Watch: Obama 46% Vs. Romney 42%
According to the lastest Marist Poll.
Looking to 2012, 43% of registered voters nationwide report they plan to vote against President Obama in 2012. This compares with 36% who say they definitely plan to support him. A notable 21% are unsure. Little has changed on this question since McClatchy-Marist last reported it in April. At that time, 44% reported they planned to back someone else while 37% said they planned to vote for the president. 18%, at the time, were unsure.
Independents play a key role in Obama’s re-election bid. 43% say they would vote against Mr. Obama in 2012 while 29% are securely in his corner. Nearly three in ten independent voters — 28% — are unsure. The president has failed to make inroads with these allimportant voters. In McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey, 47% of independents reported they would not support the president while 32% said they would cast their ballot for Mr. Obama. 21% were unsure.
While 70% of Democratic voters report they will unequivocally cast their ballot for the president and only 10% say they will vote against him, a notable one in five — 20% — are unsure. Not surprisingly, most Republicans — 85% — don’t plan on supporting the president while just 4% say they will. One in ten — 10% — are unsure.
The gereral election:
- 56% Obama Vs. 30% Palin
- 46% Obama Vs. 42% Romney
- 48% Obama Vs. 41% Giuliani
- 48% Obama Vs. 39% Perry
- 49% Obama Vs. 37% Bachmann
- 47% Obama Vs. 33% Pawlenty
GOP primary election:
- 19% Romney
- 13% Giuliani
- 13% Perry
- 11% Palin
- 8% Bachmann
- 5% Pawlenty
- 5% Paul
- 5% Cain
- 2% Gingrich
- 2% Huntsman
- 1% Santorum
Again, this is a national poll and I give them lettile credence since they do not take into account the GOP Primary calendar realities. But, this poll does show that Obama is vulnerable to the GOP front-runner Mitt Romney.
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Michele Bachmann, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Polling, President 2012, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty
President 2012 New Hampshire GOP Poll Watch: Michele Bachmann Now in Second Place to Mitt Romney
According to the latest Suffolk University Poll.
While former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney remains a front-runner in New Hampshire, Michele Bachmann climbed 8 points since May, to 11 percent, according to a Suffolk University/7NEWS (WHDH TV) poll of likely voters in New Hampshire’s GOP presidential primary.
Bachmann’s gain was more than that of any other candidate. Romney, with 36 percent support, gained 1 point since Suffolk University’s last Granite State poll was released nearly two months ago.
GOP Primary election:
- Mitt Romney – 36%
- Michele Bachmann – 11%
- Ron Paul – 8%
- Rudy Giuliani – 5%
- Sarah Paln – 4%
- Jon Huntsman – 4%
- Tim Pawlenty – 2%
- Newt Gingrich – 2%
Michele Bachmann distinguished herself in he Manchester, New Hampshire debate a few weeks ago and it is paying her dividends in the polls.
Among those who watched the Republican Presidential debate in Manchester earlier this month, 33 percent said Romney won the debate, while 31 percent gave the win to Bachmann.
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President 2012 Oregon GOP Poll Watch: Without Sarah Palin in the Race Michele Bachmann Leads in Oregon
According to the latest PPP Poll.
GOP Primary election with Sarah Palin as a candidate:
- Mitt Romney – 28%
- Michele Bachmann – 18%
- Sarah Palin – 16%
- Ron Paul – 9%
- Herman Cain – 8%
- Tim Pawlenty – 6%
- Newt Gingrich – 6%
- Jon Huntsman – 0%
GOP Primary election without Sarah Palin as a candidate:
- Mitt Romney – 28%
- Michele Bachmann – 29%
- Ron Paul – 10%
- Herman Cain – 7%
- Tim Pawlenty – 6%
- Newt Gingrich – 9%
- Jon Huntsman – 2%
Michele Bachmann is polling well in Oregon and this poll and in other states are being referred to as the Bachmann “Surge.” The LEFT is sure picking on Michele with “gotcha moments” with everything she says.
I guess they can read the polls too.
After a well received debate performance, Michele Bachmann has surged forward. Before the debate, Bachmann garnered 8% nationally; but she has more than doubled this level of support in the three states PPP has polled the primary since the debate. However, if Sarah Palin runs, this isn’t enough to claim the lead in Oregon. Mitt Romney takes the lead with 28%, followed by Bachmann with 18%, Palin with 16%, Ron Paul with 9%, Herman Cain with 8%, Newt Gingrich and Tim Pawlenty with 6%, and Jon Huntsman with 0% support.
If Palin does not run, Bachmann is the clear choice of Palin’s supporters while Romney picks up an insignificant share. Bachmann leads with 29% to Romney’s 28%, Paul’s 10%, Gingrich’s 9%, Cain’s 7%, Pawlenty’s 6%, and Huntsman’s 2%. Bachmann’s strength lies in her appeal to very conservative voters who make up 44% of GOP voters in Oregon. If Palin runs, Bachmann wins very conservatives with 24% to Romney’s 22%. This margin is expanded to a 37-26 lead without Palin.
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President 2012: Sarah Palin Reaching Out to Iowa Republican Activists
Well, Sarah will be in Iowa for the premiere of her new documentary, “The Undefeated.”
Sarah Palin’s camp is reaching out to activists and operatives in Iowa about setting up meetings while she’s in the state Tuesday for the screening of a documentary about her – including with Chuck Laudner, a former Iowa GOP executive director and prominent conservative.
Laudner confirmed to POLITICO he’d gotten a call from Palin’s advisers either Friday or over the weekend asking about meeting with him while she’s in Pella for the screening of “The Undefeated.”
“They said I was on the list” for people she wanted to get together with, said Laudner, who has ties to staunch conservative Rep. Steve King – who, in congress, has formed an alliance with Rep. Michele Bachmann.
Laudner sounded a skeptical note about whether Palin is truly serious, or, as he said, “dancing around.”
“I’d be interested to see if she’s serious about a run,” he said. “That’d be (question) A, and B, would it be too late. That’s what it feels like, anyway. It’s not too late now, (but if you) dance around until fall” it will be.
Nonetheless, he said, many conservatives are waiting to see what happens with Palin and Rick Perry, he said – discounting Tim Pawlenty as a “dead stick” and Herman Cain and Rick Santorum as “cruising along.” He did not mention Newt Gingrich.
It really is getting late in the race and I think Sarah is dancing around and waiting for Rick Perry to make a move. If the Texas Governor runs there will be sufficient split votes to give Palin a chance to emerge as the anti-Romney candidate.
Frankly, Sarah has let time escape and will have a difficult time in regrouping and putting a winning campaign in place.
But, with Sarah, expect the unexpected.
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President 2012 Iowa GOP Poll Watch: Romney 23% Vs Bachmann 22% Vs. Cain 10%
Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney
According to the latest Des Moines Register Iowa Poll.Two-time candidate Mitt Romney and tea party upstart Michele Bachmann are neck and neck leading the pack, and retired pizza chief Herman Cain is in third place in a new Des Moines Register Iowa Poll of likely participants in the state’s Republican presidential caucuses.
The results are bad news for the earnest Tim Pawlenty, a former Minnesota governor who is in single digits despite a full-throttle campaign.
Romney, a former Massachusetts governor and business executive, claims 23 percent, and Bachmann, a Minnesota congresswoman and evangelical conservative, garners 22 percent. Neither has done heavy lifting in Iowa.
The rest of the Republican field is at least 12 points behind them.
As, I have said for the past few weeks, this race is boiling down to one between Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann. The only wild cards in the race are whether Texas Governor Rick Perry will run and of course, what Sarah Palin will do. Palin is traveling to Iowa this week for the debut of her documentary.