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President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Perry 29% Vs. Romney 18% Vs. Bachmann 13%
According to the latest Rasmussen Poll.
Texas Governor Rick Perry, the new face in the race for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination, has jumped to a double-digit lead over Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann with the other announced candidates trailing even further behind.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary voters, taken Monday night, finds Perry with 29% support. Romney, the former Massachusetts governor who ran unsuccessfully for the GOP presidential nomination in 2008, earns 18% of the vote, while Bachmann, the Minnesota congresswoman who won the high-profile Ames Straw Poll in Iowa on Saturday, picks up 13%.
Texas Congressman Ron Paul, who was a close second to Bachmann on Saturday, has the support of nine percent (9%) of Likely Primary Voters, followed by Georgia businessman Herman Cain at six percent (6%) and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich with five percent (5%). Rick Santorum, former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania, and ex-Utah Governor Jon Huntsman each get one percent (1%) support, while Michigan Congressman Thaddeus McCotter comes in statistically at zero.
Sixteen percent (16%) of primary voters remain undecided.
An Uh Oh moment for the presumed front-runner Mitt Romney.
Is there any wonder why Karl Rove said last night that he exepcted others to enter the race? In fact, rumors have been plentiful today that Representative Paul Ryan is now considering the race.
Wisconsin congressman Paul Ryan is strongly considering a run for president. Ryan, who has been quietly meeting with political strategists to discuss a bid over the past three months, is on vacation in Colorado discussing a prospective run with his family. Ryan’s concerns about the effects of a presidential campaign – and perhaps a presidency – on his family have been his primary focus as he thinks through his political future.
Then, there continues to be the real wild card candidate, Sarah Palin and Rudy Giuliani who likely would run, if Palin does.
Stay tuned…….
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President 2012: Why Rudy Giuliani Continues to Consider a Presidential Race
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has been quietly but steadily traveling to New Hampshire discussing his long shot Presidential ambitions. But, is this a Quixotic attempt to stay relevant or is there something more?Looking at the GOP nomination calendar, it may indeed be something more.
Now, Texas Governor Rick Perry and Rudy are friends. Perry endorsed Rudy’s Presidential race in 2008 and I do not know how this calculus works. Nor, do I know whether Sarah Palin will actually enter the Presidential arena.
But, let us assume that Sarah Palin runs and Rudy enters the race as a moderate alternative to Sarah and Michele Bachmann.
Can Rudy Giuliani win the nomination? Or, at least have a shot?
The short answer is: Rudy Giuliani can either win or determine who the 2012 Presidential nominee will be.
Let’s look at the GOP primary nomination calendar.
Here are the early states.There are two things you really need to pay attention to here. First, note the states with asterisks. The RNC has decided to strip half of the delegates from any state that holds a primary or caucus before March 1, other than Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, or Nevada. Some states are considering pushing their primaries back, although these also tend to be the more moderate states, like Wisconsin and New Jersey. The more conservative states seem to be hanging tough, for now. In other words, you could end up with some of the more conservative states in the GOP electorate losing clout at the convention.
Please note the states of New Hampshire, Florida and New Jersey in the early state category where Rudy Giuliani will definitely win some delegates (remember these races are proportional contests – not winner take all).
I can see a scenario where the more conservative candidates of Perry, Bachmann, and Palin split the conservative wing of the party and Giuliani beats or remains a close second to Mitt Romney after the early contests.
Next, come the next tier of elections in March:
Here there are sufficient large and moderate GOP states to provide delegates to a Giuliani candidacy – Illinois, Michigan, Massachusetts and Vermont. Remember again, that the Republican National Committee has ruled that states who conduct primaries prior to April 1 must allocate their delegates proportionately.
Again, a Giuliani candidacy can remain credible with maybe not the plurality of delegates, but a sufficient amount leading into the post-April primaries:
Note that these post-April primary contests are considerably more moderate on political orientation and include New York and California. These are both states that Giuliani could win all of the delegates since they might become winner take all contests. Rudy would also do well in the other Eastern and Far West states, including Oregon, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Washington.
Giuliani could either gather a plurality of delegates by the end of the primary season and unite with a conservative candidate (namely Rick Perry, his friend) as his Vice President selection and go into the Florida GOP Convention with a majority of delegates.
Or, Rudy could broker his delegates to the “will” of the convention and accept the Vice Presidency.
Sean Trende over at Real Clear Politics begins his piece with the meme of how well Romney will do against Rick Perry.I think Sean has it a little wrong.
He has just made the case for a Rudy Giuliani candidacy.
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President 2012: Karl Rove Expects Sarah Palin, Chris Christie and/or Paul Ryan to Enter Presidential Race?
GOP Political operative Karl Rove on Fox News Channel last nightTexas Governor is the candidate of the hour, but Karl Rove makes the case that more may enter the Presidential arena.
ROVE: We’ve got a good field. I don’t think that’s the end, though, of the field. I think we’re likely to see several other candidates think seriously about getting in, and frankly, they have time to do so.
November 22 is the first deadline to file papers to get on a ballot — that’s the last day somebody could get in without starting to lose their place in some of the early primaries or caucuses.
I suspect we’re likely to see an early September, late August — people taking it seriously.
SEAN HANNITY: All right, who are these people you suspect might get in?
ROVE: I think Palin.
HANNITY: You do think Palin?
ROVE: Well, I think she’s going to look seriously at it. I don’t know if any of these are going to actually get in, but I think that the nature of the field, and the fact that we’ve now got three candidates when we could have had four, five, or six major candidates is going to lead people to say “Well, I could be in that contest.”
Palin has got a pretty active schedule in early September. I think Chris Christie and Paul Ryan are going to look at it again, and I wouldn’t be surprised if all three of them gave serious consideration to it….
HANNITY: I’ve talked to Governor Christie a lot and he says “No way”.
I was more convinced Gov. Palin after I saw her and interviewed her Friday night at the Iowa state fair that she might get in now.
Paul Ryan, I don’t think has given any indication. What makes you think those two will get in — meaning Ryan and Christie.
ROVE: Well, two things. There was an event in New York — [co-founder of Home Depot] Ken Langone pulled together some big moneyraisers and met with Christie and said “you need to think seriously about this.”
And it’s not just the meeting. What happened afterwards — from what I picked up around the country — I talked to a number of people who had picked up the phone and called Christie to tell him they thought that he ought to run. These are Republican activists, Republican donors, movers and shakers, activists around the country.
And the same on Paul Ryan, and I’m starting to pick up some sort of vibrations that these kinds of conversations are causing Christie and Ryan to tell the people who are calling them “Well, you know what, I owe it to you. I think I will take a look at it.”
Whether or not that happens or not, I don’t know, but I’m just picking that up that people have some sense, some belief that these two guys are going to take a look at it.
I agree that Sarah Palin is a wild card in the race fro 2012 and should Sarah enter the race, the conservative field would be scattered all over the map. I, also, predict that should Palin run, so would Rudy Giuliani which would really divide the GOP Presidential delegate distribution.
I can foresee a scenario where the GOP nomination comes down to the California GOP primary election in June (likely, a winner take all election) or a “brokered” convention – much like Ford Vs. Reagan in 1976.
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President 2012 GOP North Carolina Poll Watch: Romney 17% Vs. Perry 17% Vs. Palin 17% Vs. Bachmann 9%
According to the latest PPP Poll.
- Rick Perry 17%
- Mitt Romney 17%
- Michele Bachmann 9%
- Sarah Palin 17%
- Ron Paul 7%
- Herman Cain 11%
- Newt Gingrich 10%
- Tim Pawlenty 2%
- Jon Huntsman 1%
With Sarah Palin out of the race:
- Mitt Romney 16%
- Rick Perry 17%
- Michele Bachmann 17%
- Newt Gingrich 11%
- Ron Paul 11%
- Tim Pawlenty 4%
- Herman Cain 9%
- Jon Huntsman 2%
Another good initial poll for Texas Governor Rick Perry. It looks like he goes into North Carolina in a very good position with both Bachmann and Romney fading in the most recent polls.
Only two days into the race and in North Carolina, Rick Perry can be considered a co-front runner.
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President 2012 Video: Sarah Palin Rips Mitt Romney Over Finger in the Wind Position on Debt Limit Deal
Is this Sarah’s last stand before she decides NOT to run against Mitt?
Or, is she planning to get behind fellow Tea Partier Michele Bachmann?
The long painful wait for Sarah to either launch or not launch her Presidential campaign will soon be over, in any case.
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President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Rick Perry is Leading in the South While Mitt Romney Leads in the West
According to the latest Gallup Poll.Texas Gov. Rick Perry is the favorite among southern Republicans when they are asked to say who they are most likely to support for the party’s 2012 presidential nomination, with a 22% to 13% advantage over Sarah Palin in that region. Mitt Romney has a similar edge, 24% to 12%, over Michele Bachmann in the West. Romney and Rudy Giuliani essentially tie for first in the East, with Romney holding a slight advantage among midwestern Republicans.
These results are based on a July 20-24 Gallup poll that shows Romney (17%) and Perry (15%) in a statistical tie as the preferred nominee among Republicans nationwide. However, Romney has a more significant lead among the more limited set of announced GOP candidates, which excludes Perry, Palin, and Giuliani.
This is a good poll for Rick Perry who has NOT even anounced an official candidacy. When he does in late August he will zoom past Michele Bachmann into second place.
With regards to Sarah Palin, she remains a “wild card” in this race. I have written for weeks now that should she run, then Rudy Giuliani would run. Rudy figures his strength in the East and somewhat in California might propel him to a place at the table at a “brokered” GOP Convention.
But, remember Rick Perry and Rudy are friends. Perry endorsed Rudy in 2008 and it would not be surprising that should Palin not decide to run, that Rudy would endorse Perry which would swing support to him in the East and West.
So, we wait for a few weeks and see what Sarah Palin announces at a Tea Party rally in Iowa on September 3rd.
Given Romney’s positioning among southern Republicans, a candidate like Perry could pose the most significant threat to him. One key would be whether Perry, as he became better known (currently 56% of Republicans are familiar with him), would expand his appeal in other regions, or if his core support would remain limited to the South. If the latter, Romney may still be able to hold onto his status as the front-runner even if his support in the South drops. If the former, Perry could emerge as the new GOP front-runner should he become an official candidate.
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President 2012: Sarah Palin to Keynote Iowa Tea Party Rally on September 3
A movie poster advertising the Sarah Palin documentary “The Undefeated” is seen at the film’s premiere in Pella, Iowa June 28, 2011. The documentary traces Palin’s rise from mayor of tiny Wasilla, Alaska, to state governor and her rise as the Republican vice presidential nominee and John McCain’s running mate in 2008
It is not as if Sarah will announce her candidacy for President or anything.In the latest indication that her sights are still set on a presidential run, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin has accepted an invitation to keynote a Tea Party rally in Waukee, Iowa, on Sept. 3, RealClearPolitics has learned.
The Labor Day weekend visit to the nation’s first voting state comes after Palin indicated during an appearance on Fox News earlier this month that she would make her decision about whether to launch a campaign in August or September.
All signs now point to September as the month when Palin would throw her hat into the ring, as logistical concerns ranging from fundraising to getting her name on the ballot in various states would likely preclude further delay.
Many prominent political analysts and Republican operatives have expressed skepticism that Palin is seriously considering a presidential bid, since she has not taken many of the steps that candidates traditionally take before jumping into the race, such as signing early-state consultants, contacting key powerbrokers and boosting their travel schedules.
But Palin has a long history of shunning the Republican Party machinery and taking an unconventional approach to campaigns — a mind-set that appears to have been in play throughout the past several months.
Palin’s latest appearance in Iowa will come just two days after “The Undefeated,” a documentary film spotlighting her accomplishments in Alaska, will be released on Pay-Per-View and video-on-demand. In the film, Palin is portrayed as a continual thorn in the Republican establishment’s side. And it is the GOP, rather than the Democratic Party, that garners the better part of the movie’s scorn.
If Palin were to announce a White House run, the theme of her campaign would almost certainly focus on resisting the ingrained political culture and what she sees as being wrong with the status quo, and much of the Republican Party itself, in addition to continuing to offer one of the most strident contrasts to President Obama’s policies.
The outdoor rally on the first Saturday in September will take place at a field in Waukee, located just outside of Des Moines, and will be hosted by the Tea Party of America — an Iowa-based political action committee that was founded in May.
The midday affair will be the new group’s kickoff event and is sure to generate a large crowd and massive media attention.
I am tired of try to prognosticate what Sarah will do, because she is unpredicatble. I can dare say though, that if she runs, so will Rick Perry and Rudy Giuliani.
Sarah is the “wild card” without a doubt in the race for President in 2012.
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President 2012 South Carolina GOP Poll Watch: Mitt Romney 25% Vs.Sarah Palin 16% Vs. Michele Bachmann 13%
According to the latest ARG Poll.
But, with Texas governor Rick Perry soon to enter the race and Sarah Palin continuing to be undecided, this result is very fluid.
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President 2012: Iowa Governor Branstad Says Texas Governor Rick Perry Will Enter Presidential Race After Ames Straw Poll
Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad, right, listens as Hilton Garden Inn owner Larry Miller, foreground, talks about his hotel being surrounded by Missouri River floodwaters, during a tour Branstad took of flooding in Sioux City, Iowa, Monday, June 27, 2011
So, how will this affect the race?Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad said Friday that Rick Perry, his Texas counterpart, is “seriously considering” entering the Republican presidential race.
While he has not yet spoken to Perry about a possible run, Branstad said the Texas governor chatted recently by phone with Kim Reynolds, his lieutenant governor.
Branstad, who was in Utah for the National Governors Association annual meeting, told CNN that Perry’s fact-finding calls into Iowa have left him with the impression that a presidential bid is likely.
He predicted that Perry will jump in “sometime after” the Ames Straw Poll on August 13.
Branstad also said Perry can “absolutely” afford to skip the straw poll, traditionally a test of each campaign’s organizational strength in the leadoff caucus state.
The wild card question is: will Sarah Palin jump into the race?
Texas Governor Rick Perry will replace Michele Bachmann as the anti-Romney candidate. But, Bachmann will run strong in Iowa but can she sustain her popularity into South Carolina and Florida?
As the long-time Governor of Texas, he certainly has the executive experience. Look for the GOP Washington Establishment to push a Rick Perry and Marco Rubio ticket.
Of course, Mitt Romney may have something to say about all of this and so might Sarah.
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President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Romney 25% Bachmann 14% Palin 12% Perry 10%
Republican presidential candidate, Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., speaks with Rep. Steve King, R-Iowa., during a news conference on Capitol Hill in Washington, Wednesday, July 13, 2011
According to the latest Quinnipiac University Poll.A new national poll shows Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann surging into second place behind longtime front-runner Mitt Romney in the Republican presidential race.
Romney leads Bachmann, 25 percent to 14 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday. Sarah Palin places third with 12 percent and Texas Gov. Rick Perry garners 10 percent support. Romney’s support remained unchanged since the last Quinnipiac poll taken a month ago, while Bachmann picked up eight percentage points. With Bachmann moving up, Palin lost three points.
The poll also suggests that Romney and Bachmann have the most to gain if Perry or Palin stays out of the race. In Perry’s absence, Romney leads Bachmann by 28 percent to 16 percent and Palin places third with 13 percent. In a Palin-less race, Romney continues to lead with 28 percent support, followed by Bachmann with 17 percent and Perry at 10 percent.
Romney comes the closest to President Obama in a head-to-head matchup, trailing the president, 47 percent to 41 percent. This margin has not changed since the last Quinnipiac poll. Though he trails overall, Romney edges Obama among independents, 42 percent to 40 percent.
The president leads the other top candidates with at least 50 percent support, topping Bachmann, 50-38; Palin, 53-34; and Perry, 50-37. He tops these candidates among independents as well.
So, the political world waits for Sarah Palin and/or Rick Perry to make their move. aAnd, don’t forget Rudy Giuliani who could win many Northeastern GOP states and create a “brokered” convention scenario.