• Polling,  President 2012,  Tim Pawlenty

    GOP Presidential Poll Watch: Pawlenty Begins Race for 2012 with Only 41% Name Recognition



    According to the latest Gallup Poll.

    Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who this week became the first major Republican to announce the formation of a presidential exploratory committee, has 41% name recognition among Republicans nationwide. He trails a number of other potential GOP presidential candidates on this measure.

    Let’s face it, former Minnesota Governor tim Pawlenty will NOT be the 2012 Presidential nominee. Pawlenty is really running for either the 2012 Vice Presidential nomination or for 2016 when there will not be an incumbent President running for re-election.

    Here is a chart on intensity scores:

    Here, Tim Pawlenty is tied with Mitt Romney, but Romney will spend Pawlenty under the table. Plus, Romney is assured a primary victory in New Hampshire early on.

    The bottom line:

    Name recognition is a necessary ingredient in a politician’s race to win his or her party’s nomination for president. The last eight Republicans who won their party’s presidential nomination — John McCain, George W. Bush, Bob Dole, George H.W. Bush, Ronald Reagan, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, and Barry Goldwater — were well-known and well-established politicians. Even George W. Bush, who was a state governor with no national experience in the year before he won the Republican nomination, had a recognition score of over 80% when Gallup first measured him in February 1999, albeit aided in part by his famous last name.

    Additionally, Barack Obama, who stands as an example of an individual who came from relative obscurity to national prominence, had a name recognition score of over 75% by March 2007, the year before he gained the Democratic nomination.

    Pawlenty and Barbour thus face a serious challenge as they begin their quests to gain their party’s nomination. Well under half of their party’s rank-and-file members across the country at this point, less than a year before the first primaries and caucuses take place, know who they are. Both Pawlenty and Barbour, as well as other Republicans who are expected to formally announce their candidacies over the next few months, will be crisscrossing the country for the remainder of the year in an effort to make themselves known — and liked — by potential GOP primary voters. Gallup’s weekly tracking and reporting on the name recognition and Positive Intensity Scores of potential Republican presidential candidates will gauge how successful the candidates are in these endeavors.

  • Chris Christie,  John Huntsman,  Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Insiders Poll Hot on Mitch Daniels and Tim Pawlenty – NOT Hot on Sarah Palin

    According to the latest National Journal “Insiders” poll.

    In the view of Democratic and Republican political operatives, the potential 2012 GOP White House hopefuls whose fortunes are most on the rise are Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels and former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, while former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin is a rapidly depreciating asset, according to this week’s National Journal Political Insiders Poll.

    While no Republican could-be candidate towered above the field, GOP Insiders focused on Daniels and Pawlenty as two whose stock has been rising in recent months, but for very different reasons. Daniels, who has taken few overt steps towards mounting a national campaign, is seen as someone who could champion the Republican themes of shrinking government and cutting spending and also has the record in Indiana to back up that message in a campaign. “The more it becomes about deficit reduction, the better he does,” said one GOP Insider. Even Daniels’ serious demeanor is considered a positive. “Increasingly seen as the anti-Obama — no flash and slogans, but real leadership and a plan,” swooned another Republican.

    Pawlenty was rated equally well by GOP Insiders who have been impressed by his disciplined courtship of the party faithful in the early caucus and primary states. Pawlenty is also viewed as a candidate who is acceptable to a broad range of Republicans and has relatively little political baggage. “[He] continues to methodically define himself as the mainstream conservative Republican who can appeal to traditional and new Republican activists,” said one GOP Insider. “Daniels may not run because of family, Barbour has proven surprisingly tone deaf, Gingrich has failed to turn around the marital issue, Palin excites her core group and is unacceptable to everyone else, Romney-care has become the mark of death for Romney,” noted another GOP Insider. “It looks more and more as though everyone has a fatal weakness, other than Pawlenty.”

    Democrats generally concurred and saw Daniels as an “adult” and Pawlenty as “organized.”

    Agreed.

    As the GOP primary season heats up, voters will be looking for someone new – not Mitt Romney and not Newt Gingrich. 

    Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels (if he runs), former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman or New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (if he runs) would fit the bill.

    Note: The “Insiders” are NOT too high on Sarah Palin.

  • Mike Huckabee,  Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Paul Ryan,  Polling,  President 2012,  Ron Paul,  Sarah Palin,  Tim Pawlenty

    Wisconsin GOP President 2012 Poll Watch: Ryan 30% Vs Huckabee 17% Vs Gingrich 12% Vs Palin and Romney 9%

    According to the latest PPP poll.

    • Paul Ryan – 30%
    • Mike Huckabe – 17%
    • Newt Gingrich – 12%
    • Sarah Palin – 9%
    • Mitt Romney – 9%
    • Ron Paul – 5%
    • Tim Pawlenty – 4%
    • Mitch Daniels – 3%

    What is surprising is how poorly Mitt Romney is doing in Wisconsin, finishing tied with Sarah in fourth place. He does no better if you take Rep Paul Ryan out of the race, continuing to finish fourth.

    If you take the Wisconsin favorite son, Rep. Paul Ryan out of the race then:

    • Mike Huckabee – 23%
    • Sarah Palin – 15%
    • Newt Gingrich – 15%
    • Mitt Romney – 12%
    • Tim Pawlenty – 10%
    • Ron Paul – 5%
    • Mitch Daniels – 3%

    Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

    • Ryan – 67% Vs. 10%
    • Palin – 65% Vs. 25%
    • Huckabee – 58% Vs. 18%
    • Gingrich – 54% Vs. 23%
    • Romney – 49% Vs. 25%

    So, the race is bunched and two of the frontrunners, Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin are doubtful candidates.

    Huckabee’s shaping up to be the strongest Republican candidate in the Big Ten states- in addition to his lead on this Wisconsin poll, he’s also led in every other every state we’ve polled in the region so far in 2011- Pennsylvania, Nebraska, and Iowa. If Huckabee does end up running you’re going to have his strength in the South and Midwest butting up against Romney’s strength in the Northeast and West.

    This is a bit of a broken record but still an important point: Republican voters love Sarah Palin but don’t want her to be their Presidential candidate. She has the highest favorability of the GOPers besides Ryan, 7 points higher than Huckabee’s and 11 points higher than Gingrich’s. But she still runs 8 points behind Huckabee on Presidential nomination choice and just ties with Gingrich. Liking someone and thinking they should occupy the White House are two very different things.

    The entire poll is here.

  • Chris Christie,  Haley Barbour,  Jon Huntsman,  Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  President 2012,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012: Republicans Looking for the Anti-Romney Presidential Candidate?

    Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney speaks at the Values Voter Summit on Sept. 17, 2010, in Washington

    Such astute punditry from the Los Angeles Times this morning – NOT.

    Isn’t it obvious?

    1. Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels
    2. Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour
    3. Former Utah Gov. and departing ambassador to China Jon Huntsman
    4. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie
    5. Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty
  • Barack Obama,  Chris Christie,  Haley Barbour,  Jon Huntsman,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  President 2012,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012: The GOP Weirdness Factor – OUT Goes Mike Huckabee and Newt Gingrich

    Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee

    Goerge Will DISSES both Mike Huckabee and Newt Gingrich this morning.

    If pessimism isn’t creeping into Republicans’ thinking about their 2012 presi dential prospects, that is another rea son for pessimism. This is because it indicates they do not understand that sensible Americans, who pay scant attention to presidential politics at this point in the electoral cycle, must nevertheless be detecting vibrations of weirdness emanating from people associated with the party.

    The most recent vibrator is Mike Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor, who won the 2008 GOP Iowa caucuses and reached that year’s national convention with more delegates than Mitt Romney and might run again. Huckabee was asked by Steve Malzberg, a talk-radio host, this:

    “Don’t you think it’s fair also to ask [Barack Obama] . . . how come we don’t have a health record, we don’t have a college record, we don’t have a birth cer — why, Mr. Obama, did you spend millions of dollars in courts all over this country to defend against having to present a birth certificate. It’s one thing to say, ‘I’ve — you’ve seen it. Goodbye.’ But why go to court and send lawyers to defend against having to show it? Don’t you think we deserve to know more about this man?”

    Huckabee should have replied, “I’ve seen paranoia. Goodbye.” Instead, he said:

    “I would love to know more. What I know is troubling enough. And one thing that I do know is his having grown up in Kenya . . .”

    And, then Gingrich:

    Republicans should understand that when self-described conservatives like Malzberg voice question-rants like the one above and Republicans don’t recoil from them, the conservative party is indirectly injured — as it is directly when Newt Gingrich, who seems to be theatrically tiptoeing toward a presidential candidacy, speculates about Obama’s having a “Kenyan, anti-colonial” mentality.

    An article containing what Gingrich calls a “stunning insight” is “the most profound insight I have read in the last six years about Barack Obama.” Gingrich begins with a faux question: “What if he is so outside our comprehension” that he can be understood “only if you understand Kenyan, anti-colonial, behavior?” Then Gingrich says this isn’t just a question; it’s “the most accurate, predictive model for his behavior.”

    To the notion that Obama has a “Kenyan, anti-colonial,” worldview, the sensible response is: If only. Obama’s natural habitat is as American as the nearest faculty club; he is a distillation of America’s academic mentality; he is as American as the other professor-president, Woodrow Wilson. A question for former history professor Gingrich: Why implicate Kenya?

    Granted the references to Kenya and Obama’s birth certificate are just weird bu these two fellows have other baggage problems and I have never considered them serious Presidential candidates.

    So, who are Will’s favorites for 2012?

    1. Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels
    2. Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour
    3. Former Utah Gov. and departing ambassador to China Jon Huntsman
    4. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney
    5. Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty

    Agreed, except I would add New Jersey governor Chris Christie as a 6th.

    Who do I think could beat President Obama?

    At this point, I would say Mitch Daniels and Chris Christie. The others will be trounced but will do NO harm to protect GOP gains in the House and the 2012 take over of the Senate.

  • Mike Huckabee,  Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012 Georgia Poll Watch: 19% Huckabee, 18% Gingrich, 14% Romney, 14% Cain, 11% Palin

    The latest Georgia Presidential poll is out from 20/20 Insight.

    GOP Presidential preference:

    • 19% Huckabee
    • 18% Gingrich
    • 14% Romney
    • 14% Cain
    • 11% Palin
    • 3% Pawlenty
    • 2% Barbour
    • 1% Daniels

    General election:

    • 47% Obama (D), 43% Palin (R)
    • 50% Romney (R), 44% Obama (D)
    • 50% Huckabee (R), 45% Obama (D)
    • 47% Gingrich (R), 45% Obama (D)

    Another poor poll for Sarah Palin against President Obama, as she fails to beat him in the very RED state of Georgia. The poll results have to be giving Mike Huckabee some pause as to whether he should run or not. I still believe he will pass on a run for the Presidency in 2012. 

    Exit question: If Palin is NOT the anti-Romney will Mitch Daniels step up to challenge him? Or, will it be Tim Pawlenty?

  • Mike Huckabee,  Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  President 2012,  Ron Paul,  Sarah Palin,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012 Poll Watch: Mitt Romney 24% Sarah Palin 19% Mike Huckabee 17%

    Another national survey for the GOP Presidential nomination is out – this time from Rasmussen.

    • Mitt Romney – 24%
    • Sarah Palin – 19%
    • Mike Huckabee – 17%
    • Newt Gingrich – 11%
    • Tim Pawlenty – 6%
    • Ron Paul – 4%
    • Mitch Daniels – 3%
    • Some other candidate – 6%
    • Undecided – 10%

    The survey of 1,000 Likely GOP Primary Voters was conducted on January 18, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. Likely GOP Primary Voters include both Republicans and unaffiliated voters likely to vote in a GOP Primary. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

    It is early and national polls are, well, national. But, Mitt Romney does not have a commanding lead and conservative candidates Palin, Huckabee and Gingrich polling totals combined overwhelm him.

    There is little doubt that Republican voters are looking for an alternative to Mitt Romney.

  • Sarah Palin,  Tim Pawlenty

    Tim Pawlenty Backs Away from Sarah Palin “Crosshairs” Comment


    Tim Pawlenty interview by Hot Air’s Ed Morrissey today

    OK, I will accept the former Minnesota Governor’s explanation. But, didn’t he know that his comment would be viewed and chewed by the left-slanting MSM?

    I think that Tim Pawlenty tried to get away with a cheap shot against Sarah Palin and got caught or is naive and not ready for the rough and tumble of a Presidential campaign.

    You take your pick.

  • Sarah Palin,  Tim Pawlenty

    Tim Pawlenty Takes a Jab at Sarah Palin Over “Crosshairs” – Needs to Go Away Now

    Former Minnesota Governor and Presidential candidate Tim Pawlenty and former Alaska Governor and VP Nominee Sarah Palin

    Go away Tim.

    Possible Republican presidential hopeful Tim Pawlenty took a jab at Sarah Palin, saying he wouldn’t have used gun crosshairs to target Rep Gabrielle Giffords and others.

    “I wouldn’t have done it,” the former Minnesota governor told The New York Times on Monday when asked if he would have created a map like the one posted last year on Sarah PAC’s website showing crosshairs on lawmakers who supported health care reform.

    Exploitation of the Tucson Massacre has been rampant on the LEFT. Tim, we really don’t need your banal comments about Sarah Palin.

    And, you REALLY think you can win the GOP Presidential nomination?

  • Barack Obama,  Chris Christie,  John Thune,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  Sarah Palin,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012 Poll Watch: Romney 41% Vs. Obama 41%, Christie 43% Vs Obama 40%, Huckabee 39% Vs. Obama 42%



    Not a very good poll for the President.

    On the Republican primary side it breaks out like this:

    • 27% Christie
    • 17% Romney
    • 16% Palin
    • 14% Huckabee
    • 5% Daniels
    • 2% Pawlenty
    • 2% Thune

    New Jersey Governor Chris Christie who has said he would not be a candidate is doing the best but all of the Republican contenders are within the ballpark.

    The poll, conducted from Dec. 30, 2010 to Jan. 3, 2011, shows Christie leads among conservative Republicans with 28%, followed by Palin (18%), Huckabee (15%) and Romney (14%). Christie also leads among Born-Again Christians with 27%. He also does well with moderate Republicans (23%). Romney leads that group with 28%. 

    Looking at age groups, Christie does best with those 18-29 (36%) and 30-49 (33%).

    Both Christie and Romney lead Obama among independent voters. For Christie, that margin is 42%-29%; and for Romney, 39%-31%. Of the listed Republicans, Palin does the worst against Obama among independents, losing 38%-32%.

    Obama loses to each of the Republicans among voters over age 65; and trails by the biggest margins to Romney (51%-38%) and Christie (49%-39%).