Previously on Flap, California Special Election Watch: New Poll Results

A new Survey USA Poll has been released.

In an election today, 10/18/05, 3 weeks to the 11/8/05 vote, California voters approve Proposition 73, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76 and Proposition 77, according to an exclusive SurveyUSA poll of 613 likely voters.

Support for all 5 measures is strongly tied to approval of Governor Schwarzenegger. Those who approve of the job the Governor is doing, vote overwhelmingly “Yes” on all 5 Propositions. Those who disapprove of the job the Governor is doing oppose all 5 Propositions. Interest in ballot measures intensifies as the election approaches and ad dollars are spent to influence voters. These numbers can and should be expected to fluctuate,

Proposition 73 requires that physicians notify the parent of a pregnant minor at least 48 hours before performing an abortion. If the special election were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, would you vote Yes on Proposition 73? Or would you vote No?

60% Yes
38% No
2% Undecided

Proposition 74 extends the probationary period for new teachers from 2 years to 5 years, and makes it easier to dismiss teachers with unsatisfactory performance evaluations. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on Proposition 74? Or would you vote No?

53% Yes
45% No
1% Undecided

Proposition 75 prohibits public employee unions from using union dues for political purposes without the written consent of union members. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on Proposition 75? Or would you vote no?

56% Yes
42% No
2% Undecided

Proposition 76 limits growth in state spending so that it does not exceed recent growth in state revenues. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on Proposition 76? Or would you vote no?

54% Yes
41% No
5% Undecided

Proposition 77 changes the way California draws boundaries for Congressional and legislative districts. District boundaries would be drawn by a panel of retired judges and approved by voters in a statewide election. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on 77? Or would you vote no?

54% Yes
41% No
5% Undecided

This is continued good news for the Governor.

Absentee ballots have been mailed and requests for them are greater than Arnold’s last election in 2003.

Elections officials in Los Angeles County, which is home to nearly a quarter of California’s registered voters, already have sent out 445,784 absentee ballots. That’s up from 338,747 at the same point in the 2004 primary race and 350,747 in the recall.

“We’re actually running closer to the numbers we saw in the 2004 general election,” said Kristin Heffron, chief deputy registrar for Los Angeles County.

There’s a similar situation in Santa Clara County, where the 200,972 absentee ballots already mailed to voters are more than the 132,965 issued in the 2004 primary and not far behind the 232,231 mailed out for the November general election.

“I think there’s interest out there,” said Alma Rosas, a spokeswoman for the Santa Clara Country registrar. “It’s not like a governor’s race, with a 50 percent turnout, or the 70 percent that turns out for a presidential race, but we’re looking at a 40 to 45 percent turnout, like for a primary.”

Stay Tuned.

Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77

Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page

The Hoover Institution has Poll: Race Too Close to Call for Two Schwarzenegger Propositions.

A Stanford University-Hoover Institution-Knowledge Networks (S-H-KN) online survey shows two of the statewide ballot propositions backed by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in a statistical dead heat.

Prop. 74 (Teacher Tenure) and Prop. 77 (Redistricting) both split likely California voters right down the middle.

Another Schwarzenegger initiative, Prop. 76 (State Spending and School Funding Limits), is trailing by a wide margin, with 70% of likely California voters saying they will vote against it.

Prop. 75 (Public Employee Union Dues), endorsed by the Governor, currently has a commanding majority, with 70% of likely voters saying they will vote in favor.

This poll has a different methodology than the traditional telephone poll but looks promising for the Governor.

Flap senses that Proposition 75, Paycheck Protection Initiative is poised to win decisively.

Pressure will be on the Join Arnold folks to win 74 and 77, although 77 will be challenged by the Democrats in the courts (remember there is a stayed lawsuit about initiative circulation issues).

While the current numbers are generally consistent with other recent surveys conducted by the Field Poll and the Public Policy Institute of California, the S-H-KN survey indicates that support for both Proposition 74 and Proposition 77 is higher than previously reported. In the S-H-KN poll respondents view a facsimile of the actual ballot on their computer screens and make yes or no vote decisions just as they will do in the upcoming special election. No undecided option is offered, although survey respondents can choose not to vote on a proposition just as voters can in the election. Consistent with S-H-KN polling in the 2003 recall election (see www.knowledgenetworks.com/ganp for all materials related to this press release), this methodology resulted in far fewer undecided responses than telephone surveying.

The survey also tracked how the other four initiatives on the November ballot are faring.

The S-H-KN poll has the following for the other propositions:

Prop. 73 (Parental Notification) is currently leading by a margin of 54% to 46%, but this margin is within sampling error of the survey.

Prop. 78 is leading 59% to 41%

Prop. 79 is leading 58% to 42%

Since these are competing initiatives whichever receives the most positive votes wins.

Prop. 80 the final statewide initiative to appear on the November ballot (Electric Service Providers Regulation), currently trails by a wide margin. The poll finds that only 37% of likely voters are currently in favor, with 63% opposed.

The media campaigns are in full swing and Flap has noticed a reduced frequency in the Los Angeles market for big unions’ ads.

Are they out of money?

Will the California Teachers Association mortgage their future and/or be headed toward bankruptcy due to unwise media spending?

Stay tuned.

Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77, Proposition 73, Proposition 78, Proposition 79, Proposition 80, Hoover Institution, Proposition 73

Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page

and

Cross Posted to the SoCal Law Blog

Sacramento Bee columnist, Dan Walters, has Ultra-low turnout could spell semi-victory for Schwarzenegger.

By all appearances, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has been set up – or has set himself up – for a sharp setback in the Nov. 8 special election, but in the Alice-in-Wonderland world of California politics being so far down could give him a leg up.

On Flap previously, California Special Election Watch: It is the TURNOUT Stupid.

Uniformly, polls indicate that voters are not impressed with Schwarzenegger’s arguments that two major ballot measures – one overhauling the redrawing of legislative districts, the other imposing new limits on state spending – are needed.

They do, however, appear to be somewhat more amenable to his teacher tenure measure and two others he has endorsed, one requiring parental notification when minors seek abortions and another to require public employee unions to ask permission before taking campaign funds from members.

More importantly, perhaps, voters are turned off by the very notion of having this special election, having been convinced by a massive, union-financed media campaign that Schwarzenegger is wrong to have launched his ballot measure war this year. The latest polling by the Public Policy Institute of California found that more than half of likely voters think the election is a bad idea, but it’s just possible that the negative reaction to Schwarzenegger’s drive could, in a perverse way, produce a better result for him than the current polls indicate, perhaps even a semi-victory.

Absolutely a correct analysis.

Even the Unions seem to be “getting it”.

The Mercury News has Unions say it’s vital for allies in Bay Area not to sit out election.

But other Democratic strategists say the turnout problem is real and the union campaign so far has fallen into a trap that may inadvertently suppress the Democratic vote.

“We’re worried,” said Steve Smith, who is managing Planned Parenthood’s campaign against Proposition 73 because the measure is dead even in polls. The initiative, another the governor is supporting, would require that parents be notified when underage girls seek abortions.

“The kind of campaign that’s been run for months is, `Say no.’ One function of saying no is staying home. That’s a problem for us.”

Now Walters discusses the bungled union media campaign in surpressing their OWN voters.

Flap has noticed a reduction in frequency of anti-Schwarzenegger television ads in the Los Angeles market.

Will the Alliance for a Better California change their message in the last weeks of the campaign?

The tens of million of dollars that are being spent by pro-and anti-sides on the eight ballot measures are aimed, of course, at influencing voters’ decisions, but they may have the auxiliary effect of depressing turnout as voters become even more confused and alienated. And this election may hinge more on how many vote and who they are, rather than on the massive media campaigns.

The PPIC poll found, not surprisingly, that anti-election sentiment is concentrated heavily among Democrats (73 percent) and independents (56 percent). In sharp contrast, 63 percent of Republicans think the election is a good idea, so it may be intrinsically more difficult for Democrats and unions to persuade their voters even to cast ballots.

And then there are the Evangelical Christians and Proposition 73 (Parental Notification for Abortion).

This important base for the Republicans and Schwarzenegger WILL turn-out to vote.

Conservative churches are, with Republican Party encouragement, marshaling turnout for the parental notification measure, Proposition 73.

“If every Christian in California voted for this initiative, it would pass by a landslide,” one pro-Proposition 73 group, the Capitol Resource Institute, says in an appeal that includes suggested church bulletin fliers. Religious conservatives are likely to support Schwarzenegger’s measures.

The Unions are worried and they should be.

Schwarzenegger could possibly win two or three of his endorsed measures, including the Paycheck Protection Initiative which would be a knife to the union’s heart.

Who will the Union bosses blame for the ROPE-A-DOPE?

Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77, Proposition 73

Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page

The Public Plicy Institute of California has its latest poll, PPIC Statewide Survey: Special Survey on Californians and the Initiative Process, September 2005.

The poll numbers are not favorable for California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. However, the poll was conducted prior to the beginning Governor’s television campaign and did not poll on proposition 75, the Paycheck Protection Initiative.

Ok, here are the numbers:

* Proposition 74 (teacher tenure), 43% yes, 47% no

* Proposition 76 (spending and funding limits), 26% yes, 63% no

* Proposition 77 (redistricting), 33% yes, 50% no

* Proposition 78 (prescription drug discounts), 43% yes, 38% no

* Proposition 79 (prescription drug discounts), 34% yes, 40% no

The full report is here.

The Governor’s personal poll numbers are unfavorable as well:

Currently, 33 percent of Californians approve and 58 percent disapprove of the way Governor Schwarzenegger is handling his job as governor. His ratings today are similar to those of the state legislature (32% approve, 53% disapprove). Fewer Californians today than one year ago say the governor is doing an excellent or good job working for their best interests (from 46% to 28%). Likely voters are slightly more supportive of the governor than are Californians generally: 38 percent approve of his performance in office, while 55 percent disapprove. His ratings were virtually
unchanged before and after he announced his reelection plans on September 16th.

Flap believes the Governor can turn these numbers around with more media exposure – meaning television. The public employee unions have spent tens of millions of dollars and the Governor was late in raising and matching media dollars.

Time is fleeting for the Governor and the television spots need to be increased in frequency.

Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77, Proposition 78, Proposition 79

Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page

The Alliance for a Better California has a Blog.

The Alliance for a Better California represents nearly 2 million teachers, firefighters, nurses, health care workers and average, every day people who are devoting our careers to helping others. For some reason Governor Schwarzenegger has decided that we are the enemy. We are not. We want what’s best for Californians and we don’t understand why the Governor is blaming us for all the problems of our state.

Instead of dealing with the problems Californians care about, the Governor is still pursuing an agenda that will do nothing to fix schools, traffic or the state’s budget — and he’s still threatening to hold a special election costing taxpayers $70 million on ideas that aren’t ready for prime time.

Governor Schwarzenegger is out of touch with the people he claims to represent, and we won’t be fooled by his empty promises. If he insists on holding an unnecessary and expensive special election, we will put our own good ideas directly before the voters of California, and we will win.

The Alliance for a Better California includes:

* American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME)
* Association of California School Administrators (ACSA)
* California Correctional Peace Officers Association (CCPOA)
* California Faculty Association (CFA)
* California Federation of Teachers (CFT)
* California Labor Federation
* California Professional Firefighters (CPF)
* California School Employees Association (CSEA)
* California Teachers Association (CTA)
* Peace Officers Research Association of California (PORAC)
* Service Employees International Union (SEIU)
* SEIU Local 1000

Flap notices that the supporters are all public employee unions……

Oh! What a surprise.

These folks are the new Southern Pacific Railroad of the 21st Century.

Keep up with all of the Lefties and the California Special Election – tune in here.

Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77, Proposition 74, Proposition 80

Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page

The Sacramento Bee has Governor’s far behind on 2 issues, Spending limits and redistricting trail, while teacher tenure holds onto poll lead.

Two of the three initiatives Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has proposed to fix California government are losing badly and a third is trending in the same direction – toward defeat, according to a new Field Poll.

A fourth initiative aimed at the financial heart of Schwarzenegger’s union-funded political opposition continues to hold a substantial lead, although a huge bankroll of labor-generated campaign cash poses a threat to the measure.

The Field Poll is here.

Proposition 75 (Public Employee Union Dues) Paycheck Protection:

In its latest statewide survey, The Field Poll finds the Yes side on Prop. 75 maintaining a large
twenty-three point lead, unchanged from an earlier poll in June.

This measure would prohibit public employee labor organizations from using dues or fees from its
members for political contributions unless the employee provides prior written consent. Currently, 55% of likely voters favor the measure, while 32% are on the No side. This division of sentiment is virtually the same as was found in June, when it was 57% Yes and 34% No. Democrats and non-partisans are only narrowly supporting Prop. 75, while Republicans are overwhelmingly in favor 71% to 22%. Men and women, as well as voters in Southern and Northern California, currently favor Prop. 75.

Proposition 74 (Public School Teacher’s Tenure)

The Yes side on Prop. 74 continues to lead by nine points (46% to 37%), its preference margin is down from a twenty-nine point lead in June.

Prop. 74 is a measure called the “Public School Teachers: Waiting Period for Permanent Status;
Dismissal” initiative. It would increase the probationary period for public school teachers from
two to five years and modifies the process by which school boards can dismiss teaching employees who have received two consecutive unsatisfactory performance evaluations. The current poll shows that there has also been a big change in voter sentiment on this proposition. In June the Yes side had a large two-to-one lead – 61% to 32%. Now, Prop. 74 leads only narrowly, 46% Yes to 37% No.
While the Yes side maintains the lead overall, the poll shows that shifts in the opinion away from
Yes to No have among all voter sub-groups.

Proposition 76 (State Spending and School Funding Limits)

The measure which is reportedly the linchpin of the government reform measures being backed by
Governor Schwarzenegger is Prop. 76, the “School Spending and State Spending” initiative. According to its official ballot summary, Prop. 76 would limit state spending to prior year levels
plus the average revenue growth of the three previous years. It would also change the minimum
school funding requirements under Prop. 98 and permits the Governor to reduce state budgets
under certain circumstances. After being read this summary, the likely voters interviewed in this survey were asked how they would vote if the election were being held today. Statewide, 65% say they would vote No, 19%would vote Yes and 16% are undecided. This represents a big increase in opposition to Prop. 76 from what was found in an earlier June Field Poll, when its lead was only seven points (42% to 35%). Remarkably, majorities or pluralities across all voter subgroups, Democrats, Republicans, nonpartisans, men, women, Southern and Northern California, say they are disposed to vote No on Prop. 76.

Proposition 77 (Redistricting)

There has been no significant change in the voter preferences on Prop. 77 over the past two
months. The No side is leading 46% to 32%, about where it was in June.

Prop. 77 amends the state constitution’s process for redistricting California’s Senate, Assembly,
Congressional and Board of Equalization districts. In both the June and late August surveys more voters were inclined to vote No than Yes by margins of eleven to fourteen points. Democrats and non-partisans are strongly opposed to Prop. 77, while Republicans are supporting it. Women are strongly opposed 47% to 23%, while men only slightly so (45% to 42%). Opposition to the initiative is somewhat less among voters who had some prior knowledge of the initiative prior to their being surveyed than among voters who had not heard of the measure.

Proposition 80 (Electric Service Providers Regulation)

Prop. 80 subjects electric service providers to regulation by the California Public Utilities
Commission, restricts consumers’ ability to switch from private utilities to other providers, and
requires that all retail suppliers of electricity increase their renewal energy resource purchases by
2010.
Only a relatively small proportion (17%) of voters were aware of this initiative, which has not
been getting as much media attention as the other propositions.
Voter sentiment at this time divides almost evenly into three groups: 33% Yes, 35% No and 32% undecided.

Good news for Proposition 75 in the polls and in that the special interest public employee unions are commiting some serious campaign cash to defeat it. Campaign money that will not be available next year, particularly since the national labor movement is in disarray and declining.

Flap has always thought Proposition 76 and 77 were dog of initiatives. The voters don’t understand and most folks do not care about such measures. This is inside Sacramento politics and voters are disinterested – no matter how much is spent on a media campaign.

When Proposition 76 goes down, California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is free to raise taxes to balance the California state budget and raise he will….. with the consent of the electorate.

When Propositiion 77 fails, then the Governor can blame the gerrymandered Democrat legislature for spending the state bankrupt.

Flap recommends the Governor concentrate his resources on:

1. Proposition 75 (Paycheck Protection)

2. His re-election campaign fund

California business who will be affected by the coming state tax increases better get busy supporting the Governor because they know that an Angelides or Westly governorship will mean even HIGHER taxes and MORE regulation – all controlled by the public employee unions.

Oh, by the way, the Governor has already won the special election.

Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 75, Proposition 76, Proposition 77, Proposition 74, Proposition 80

Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page

Reuters has Poll finds Schwarzenegger’s popularity remains low.

California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger’s popularity has not improved as he heads into the campaign season for a special election he has called for November, according to a poll released on Friday.

The Field Poll found just 36 percent of 891 registered voters approved of Schwarzenegger’s performance as governor, compared to 52 percent disapproval.

In a June Field poll, 37 percent of those surveyed approved, with 53 percent disapproving.

The latest survey, which had 3.4 percent margin of error, found that 57 percent opposed the November special election, which will consider issues such as how California draws its legislative districts.

The latest Field Poll is here.

This is continuing bad news for the Governor and what is to be expected when you allow your opponents to seize the initiative with an early media campaign.California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger waves to the crowd as he watches the game between the Oakland Athletics and the Los Angeles Angels with Los Angeles Angels owner Arte Moreno (L) in Anaheim, California, August 30, 2005

Schwarzenegger can rebound and Flap has given his suggestions here and here.

A Fall campaign cannot happen soon enough.

The one good note for Schwarzenegger from the Field Poll:

State legislature ratings even lower than Governor’s

As poorly as voters view the Governor’s performance, their assessment of the job the state legislature is doing is even more negative. More than one-half (54%) now disapprove of the job that the lawmakers are doing and just 27% approve. Since The Field Poll began rating the performance of the state legislature more than twenty years ago, voter assessments of that body over the past two and one-half years have been among its poorest.

Voters of all political parties have a more negative than positive view of the legislature’s
performance.

If the Governor can run a modest campaign this Fall he has won this special election – even if he loses every proposition and the status quo remains.

CNN has California labor unions lack resources in special election fight.

The lack of national labor money means California’s local unions will have to pick up most of the tab for their campaigns, and they have already spent millions to discredit Schwarzenegger and his ballot measures.

Whether that will be enough to counter the campaign by Schwarzenegger and his supporters is unclear. The governor has set a goal of raising $50 million to promote the measures.

This is campaign money that will not be used against the Governor in the Fall of 2006, nor in election year propositions, nor in Democrat Primary races, nor in California State Senate or Assembly contests…..

and…. should the Paycheck Protection Initiative, Proposition 75 pass ( it is leading in the latest poll) it will freeze the ability of public employee unions to exploit their memberhsip with dedicated dues increases to fund liberal initiatives and candidates…..

Well….. you get the idea.

Technorati Tags: Arnold Schwarzenegger, California Recovery Team, California Special Election, Bear Flag League, Proposition 75, Proposition 77

Cross-posted to the Bear Flag League Special Election Page