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President 2012: State of the Race for the Presidency: April 25, 2012
With Mitt Romney locking up the Republican nomination last night, it is time to look at the general election face off between him and President Obama. The Real Clear Politics poll average has Obama up by 4.1 points.Now, let’s look at the Electoral College vote averages (Real Clear Politics):
Here we have the state of the race: President Obama is up by a few points and there are a number of key battleground states which will determine who wins in November.Here is my prediction:
This map is from the interactive site, 270towin.com
Let the campaigns begin…..
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President 2012 Poll Watch: Romney 48% Vs. Obama 43%
According to the latest Gallup Poll.These are the results when registered voters are asked: “Suppose the presidential election were held today. If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party’s candidate and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney were the Republican Party’s candidate, who would you vote for Barack Obama, the Democrat or Mitt Romney, the Republican?” Those who are undecided are further asked if they lean more toward Obama or Romney and their leanings are incorporated into the results.
However, the latest Pew national poll has President Obama leading, but his lead has narrowed from the previous month.
But, what really matters is a few key battleground states and in one, President Obama is winning – Florida.
The polls are likely to fluctuate now as each national campaign ramps up their advertising programs.
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President 2012 Poll Watch: Obama 49% Vs. Romney 45%
According to the latest Gallup Poll.If asked to choose between them today, 49% of U.S. registered voters say they would vote for Barack Obama for president, while 45% would choose likely Republican opponent Mitt Romney. While Obama’s advantage is not statistically significant, it is the largest he has had over Romney in Gallup polling to date.
Obama has a larger, significant lead, 51% to 43%, over Rick Santorum, Romney’s chief rival for the Republican nomination, in the March 25-26 USA Today/Gallup poll. In mid-February, when Santorum led as national Republicans’ choice for the nomination, he and Obama were tied.
Obama leads both Romney and Santorum among independent voters, faring slightly better against Santorum than he does against Romney. Romney and Santorum currently fare about equally well among Republican voters.
National polls don’t mean much as I have said over and over because of big urban areas that are predominantly Democratic. Also, registered voters rather than likely voters will skew results as well.
Let’s look at Gallup’s key battleground states poll.
Obama has a 51% to 42% lead over Romney in USA Today/Gallup polling of registered voters in 12 key swing states, conducted March 20-26. This is the first time in five measurements that Obama has held an advantage over Romney in those states.
Obama also leads Santorum in the swing states, by 52% to 41%.
What does this all mean?
Momentum has shifted towards President Obama because Americans perceive the economy getting a bit better. Also, the contraception flap with Rush Limbaugh and Rick Santorum has sullied the GOP national brand and Romney is receiving the fall out with women voters and independents.
You see, most Americans are not that tuned into what the real issues are and when Jon Stewart and Jay Leno start the mocking, perceptions will shift – especially with this no win issue. But, will they shift in key battleground states?
The key battleground state poll, however, is not an accurate portrayal. There are at this point of the campaign really only six states in play: Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire and North Carolina.
Romney will need to run the table with these states in order to win the Presidency.
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The 2012 U.S. Senate Races That Will Determine Who Controls the Senate
Tilting the toss ups — ranking toss-up Senate races from most likely to go Republican (top, dark red tint) to most likely to go Democratic (bottom, dark blue tint)
Larry Sabato et. al have the analysis here.Ah, the Senate. The battle for control fascinates us — and all election observers — because there are so many intriguing races and personalities. Yet, as we update our ratings today and move in a new direction on Congress’ upper chamber, it is worth stressing at the outset that no party will truly control the Senate come January 2013. There is no chance at all that Democrats or Republicans will hit the magic 60 seats required to break filibusters and thus run the Senate. Increasingly, it looks likely that the winning party will have a smaller majority than the Democrats do now (53 seats) — if there is a majority at all. The tiny margin for the winning party will enable the new Senate to do what Senates do best: a whole lot of nothing (discounting talk, of course).
I pretty much agree with their analysis. They deliver a good race by race analysis and it is worth the time to read.
The Senate races in Virginia and Nevada intrigue me and will be fiercely fought since they are key battleground states for the Presidency. If the GOP nominee, beats Obama in the state, then the Senate seat will likely go red.
In any event, there will not be a 60 vote majority obtainable by either party. So, the only people that will really care will be Harry Reid, Mitch McConnell and their staffs.
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President 2012 Poll Watch: New York Times/CBS Poll Has Obama at 41 Per Cent Approval
President Obama speaking at a Florida fundraiser in February
Contrary to the Gallup Poll released earlier today, the latest New York Times/CBS poll has President Obama not doing so well.Despite improving job growth and an extended Republican primary fight dividing his would-be opponents, President Obama is heading into the general election season on treacherous political ground, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.
At a time of rising gas prices, heightened talk of war with Iran and setbacks in Afghanistan, Mr. Obama’s approval rating dropped substantially in recent weeks, the poll found, with 41 percent of respondents expressing approval of the job he is doing and 47 percent saying they disapprove — a dangerous position for any incumbent seeking re-election.
The poll provides a statistical reminder of how unsettled and unpredictable this year’s political landscape remains. Just one month ago, Mr. Obama reached a critical benchmark by winning approval from 50 percent of Times/CBS News poll respondents, his re-election prospects lifting along with confidence that the nation was finally emerging from the aftermath of the Great Recession.
Mr. Obama’s approval numbers measure his performance against expectations. But elections are choices between candidates, and on that score, he showed greater resilience in the poll.
In a hypothetical matchup against his most likely Republican opponent, Mitt Romney, Mr. Obama had a 47 percent to 44 percent advantage, a statistical dead heat given the poll’s margin of sampling error of 3 percentage points. Against Rick Santorum, the president drew 48 percent compared with 44 percent. In both cases, the difference between the candidates was slightly smaller than it was last month.
In the head-to-head matchups, Mr. Obama also maintained much of the advantage he had built in the last year among important constituencies, including women, although he lost some support among women over the past month, even as the debate raged over birth control insurance coverage.
Remember what I said with the Gallup Poll.
It is all about the economy and the economy in the key battleground states of Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Nevada and Ohio.
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The Morning Flap: March 12, 2012
A Newt Ginrich – Rick Perry GOP Ticket?
These are my links for March 9th through March 12th:
- President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Too close to call in Alabama and Mississippi – Tuesday looks like it’s going to be a close election night in both Mississippi and Alabama. In Mississippi Newt Gingrich is holding on to a slight lead with 33% to 31% for Mitt Romney, 27% for Rick Santorum, and 7% for Ron Paul. And Alabama is even closer with Romney at 31% to 30% for Gingrich, 29% for Santorum, and 8% for Paul.
Gingrich and Santorum are both more popular than Romney in each of these states. In Mississippi Gingrich’s net favorability is +33 (62/29) to +32 for Santorum (60/28) and +10 for Romney (51/41). It’s a similar story in Alabama where Santorum’s at +32 (63/31), Gingrich is at +26 (58/32), and Romney’s at only +13 (53/40).
The reason Romney has a chance to win despite being less popular in both states is the split in the conservative vote. In Mississippi 44% of voters describe themselves as ‘very conservative’ and Romney’s getting only 26% with them. But he’s still in the mix because Gingrich leads Santorum only 35-32 with them. In Alabama where 45% of voters identify as ‘very conservative,’ Romney’s at just 24%. But again he remains competitive overall because his opponents are so tightly packed with those voters, with Santorum at 37% and Gingrich at 31%.
- Doonesbury strip on Texas abortion law dropped by some US newspapers – Doonesbury cartoonist Garry Trudeau has defended his cartoon strip about abortion, which several US newspapers are refusing to run, saying he felt compelled to respond to the way Republicans across America are undermining women’s healthcare rights.
The strip, published on Monday and scheduled to run all week, has been rejected by several papers, while others said they were switching it from the comic section to the editorial page.
In an email exchange with the Guardian, Trudeau expressed dismay over the papers’ decision but was unrepentant, describing as “appalling” and “insane” Republican state moves on women’s healthcare.
- Gingrich, Perry deny they seek a joint ticket – Newt Gingrich’s spokesman on Sunday dismissed speculation about a potential Gingrich-Rick Perry ticket being announced before the Republican National Convention in August, saying the two camps have not discussed the idea “at any level.”
A report by Fox News cited “sources close to the Gingrich campaign” saying preliminary conversations about such a ticket have begun with the hopes that pairing the former Speaker of the House and the Texas governor might unite evangelical, tea party and other conservative voters.
But Gingrich spokesman R.C. Hammond said no one in the campaign has reached out to Perry’s camp about a shared ticket.
- Campaign 2012, 6th Congressional District: No cakewalk election for Rep. Spencer Bachus –
- Former Sarah Palin Adviser Says ‘Game Change’ Was ‘True Enough to Make Me Squirm’ –
- McCain slams ‘Game Change’ movie –
- Reid: Kerrey ‘promised nothing’ to run –
- Grayson Involved In Crash With Lynx Bus – –
- Amid anger over Afghan killings, U.S. faces growing public weariness about war –
- Speaking With the Speaker –
- Untitled (http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/03/election-expectations-move-obamas-way-yet-rising-gas-prices-fuel-gop-pushback/) – WaPo/ABC poll: Americans by a broad 65-26 percent disapprove of how the president is handling the price of gas
- Traitor Jane Fonda Wants Rush Limbaugh Kicked Off the Radio – Really? | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Traitor Jane Fonda Wants Rush Limbaugh Kicked Off the Radio – Really?
- @Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-03-12 | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – @Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-03-12
- Iron Dome Foils 90 Percent of Missiles – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News – Iron Dome Foils 90 Percent of Missiles – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News
- Iron Dome Foils 90 Percent of Missiles – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News – Iron Dome Foils 90 Percent of Missiles – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News
- Many California Election Filing Deadlines Extended to Wednesday » Flap’s California Blog – Many California Election Filing Deadlines Extended to Wednesday
- Untitled (http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/ccrov/pdf/2012/march/12083em.pdf) – The 2012 filing deadline was extended in dozens of seats w/ no incumbent. Here’s the full list:
- Iron Dome Foils 90 Percent of Missiles – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News – Iron Dome Foils 90 Percent of Missiles – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News
- Candidate-filing deadline extended in 3 Ventura County districts – The secretary of state has determined that the deadline for candidates to file to run for office will be extended until Wednesday in three political districts that include portions of Ventura County — the 26th Congressional District, the 19th Senate District and the 38th Assembly District.
State law provides for such extensions whenever an incumbent eligible to run for re-election decides not to do so.
- Iron Dome Foils 90 Percent of Missiles – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News – Iron Dome Foils 90 Percent of Missiles – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News
- Maxwell Keith – Attorney for Two of Charles Manson Family Has Died | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Maxwell Keith – Attorney for Two of Charles Manson Family Has Died
- Iron Dome Foils 90 Percent of Missiles – Defense/Security – News – Israel National News – Iron Dome Foils 90 Percent of Missiles
- Iron Dome Foils 90 Percent of Missiles – The Iron Dome system has intercepted 90 percent of missile attacks on urban centers during the latest rocket bombardment from Gaza.
The expensive systems were inaugurated last year amid controversy over its worth. A primitive Kassam rocket costs terrorists only a few hundred dollars while each Iron Dome anti-missile missile costs $50,000.
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu stated Saturday night, “We will continue to improve home front defense including by means of additional Iron Dome systems, the effectiveness of which was shown again over the weekend.”
- Nicolle Wallace On Sarah Palin ‘Game Change’ Movie – By Nicolle Wallace
“Game Change” is not a movie about Sarah Palin. And it’s definitely not about staffers like me.
It’s a film about the vast, murky gray area in which the majority of politics takes place. I’m not talking about what you see on television: the speeches, the rallies, the debates. I’m talking about the man-in-the-mirror moments, the decision-making that takes place behind closed doors, with the counsel of very few men and women, and with high stakes and irreversible consequences.
Watching “Game Change” is like reliving the most tumultuous professional roller coaster ride on which I’ve ever been. It brought back the highs – Palin’s surprise selection and her glorious moment on stage at our national convention – and the now well-documented lows.
In the end, it’s also a film about how far great men like John McCain are willing to go in order to serve the country they love. Ultimately, every candidate makes the same calculation he did: ”Whom can I select to help me win, and will that person make a good governing partner if we prevail.”
Movies like “Game Change” bring politics to life in an important way by showing the human beings behind the headlines and the caricatures. And on the eve of another national presidential contest, it’s probably a good idea to remind ourselves that all our candidates are human.
- Video: Support @Flap – Gregory Flap Cole in the Los Angeles Marathon | Smiles For A Lifetime – Temporary (Locum Tenens) Dentistry – Video: Support @Flap – Gregory Flap Cole in the Los Angeles Marathon
- Beautiful day in Austin. Really like this place! #sxsw – RT @LizMair: Beautiful day in Austin. Really like this place! #sxsw
- Day By Day March 11, 2012 – Off Course | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Day By Day March 11, 2012 – Off Course
- Bennett faces 3 challengers; no takers against Long and Zaragoza – Bennett faces 3 challengers; no takers against Long and Zaragoza
- Flap’s California Blog @ Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-03-11 » Flap’s California Blog – Flap’s California Blog @ Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-03-11
- @Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-03-11 | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – @Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-03-11
- Flap’s California Blog @ Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-03-10 » Flap’s California Blog – Flap’s California Blog @ Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-03-10
- @Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-03-10 | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – @Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-03-10
- Dodgers FYI: Clayton Kershaw effective in spring debut – latimes.com – RT @latimesbaseball: Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw effective in spring debut
- ‘Hack’ allows first-gen iPad owners to install iPhoto (hands-on video) | The Verge – ‘Hack’ allows first-gen iPad owners to install iPhoto (hands-on video)
- California lawmaker drops bid to oust Fish and Game commissioner – latimes.com – RT @LATPoliticsCA: California lawmaker drops bid to oust Fish and Game commissioner
- Why Job Growth Is Likely to Slow – If you looked only at the monthly jobs report, you could start getting pretty optimistic about the American economy. The largest, broadest survey of employment — a survey of businesses — shows the best job growth in more than five years over the last 12 months, with the pace mostly accelerating in recent months. The other survey that the Labor Department does — of households — shows even faster job growth, suggesting that the business survey may be understating the economy’s strength.
But the jobs report isn’t the only measure of economic activity, and another major measure — of gross domestic product — doesn’t look quite so cheerful. The most likely situation is that job growth will slow in coming months, economists say, which will make President Obama’s economic narrative a bit more complicated than it now is.
On Friday, Macroeconomic Advisers, one of the most closely watched forecasting firms, reduced its estimate of economic growth in the current quarter to an annual rate of 1.8 percent, from 2 percent. And 1.8 percent growth does not generally lead to very strong job growth. In the fourth quarter of last year, by comparison, the economy grew 3 percent.
Beyond the current quarter, forecasters expect the economy will grow at an annual rate of 2 to 2.5 percent for the rest of the year, according to Bloomberg.
- Elections board wants recalls on May 15, June 12 – Elections board wants recalls on May 15, June 12
- Elections board wants recalls on May 15, June 12 – Elections board wants recalls on May 15, June 12
- CA-25: Dante Acosta to Run for Congress Against Rep Buck McKeon | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – CA-25: Dante Acosta to Run for Congress Against Rep Buck McKeon
- Gloria Allred Loses Her Mind – Wants Rush Limbaugh Prosecuted | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Gloria Allred Loses Her Mind – Wants Rush Limbaugh Prosecuted
- Elections board wants recalls on May 15, June 12 – Wisconsin Elections board wants recalls on May 15, June 12
- Yes, Scott Walker has governed as he campaigned – With the recall effort against Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker heating up, Democrats are recycling the old claim that somehow Walker’s public union reforms came out of nowhere once he took office.
Earlier this week, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported that one of the Democrats hoping to challenge Walker, Kathleen Falk, “repeatedly accused Walker of being dishonest during his 2010 campaign, citing as a prime example his decision to all but eliminate collective bargaining for most public workers even though he didn’t talk about it during his run for office.”
To be sure, the eventual budget repair bill did include measures that weren’t specifically proposed during the campaign, but it’s typical to campaign on broad outlines and fill in the specifics when elected. The bottom line is that Walker’s reforms shouldn’t have come as a surprise to anybody. For more, check out this still relevant February 2011 Stephen Hayes piece.
- Wisconsin Elections board wants recalls on May 15, June 12 – The head of the Wisconsin state elections board recommended Friday that any recall elections against Gov. Scott Walker and five other Republicans be held on May 15 and June 12.
Government Accountability Board director Kevin Kennedy said in a memo to the full board that those dates make the most sense given the work that remains to be done verifying signatures on recall petitions and other timing concerns related to the proximity of the April 3 presidential primary election.
The full board was to discuss the issue Monday and if it agrees, ask a Dane County judge for more time on Wednesday.
The attorney for Democrats who launched the recall efforts said he would oppose the request in court.
“That seems totally unreasonable and unnecessary and it would change the character of the election,” attorney Jeremy Levinson said. Democrats have consistently argued the recalls should be held as soon as possible.
Republican Party spokesman Ben Sparks refused to comment on the proposed election dates. Instead, he reiterated the party’s position that multiple recalls be held on the same dates to cut down on election expenses. The elections board has also advocated for scheduling only two election dates.
Under the judge’s order currently in place, any primary elections would take place May 1 and the general election would happen May 29.
- Obama Photo of the Day | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Obama Photo of the Day
- The real unemployment rate? It sure isn’t 8.3% – Even if it were a legit number, the 8.3% February unemployment rate, released today by the Labor Department, would be simply terrible—and unacceptable. It would still extend the longest streak of 8%-plus unemployment since the Great Depression. The U.S. economy hasn’t been below 8% unemployment since Obama took office in January 2009. And back in May 2007, unemployment was just 4.4%.
But, unfortunately, the true measure of U.S. unemployment is much, much worse.
1. If the size of the U.S. labor force as a share of the total population was the same as it was when Barack Obama took office—65.7% then vs. 63.9% today—the U-3 unemployment rate would be 10.8%.
2. But what if you take into the account the aging of the Baby Boomers, which means the labor force participation (LFP) rate should be trending lower. Indeed, it has been doing just that since 2000. Before the Great Recession, the Congressional Budget Office predicted what the LFP would be in 2012, assuming such demographic changes. Using that number, the real unemployment rate would be 10.4%.
- President 2012 Poll Watch: Obama Beating Romney in Four Key Battleground States of VA, FL, OH, NC | Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – President 2012 Poll Watch: Obama Beating Romney in Four Key Battleground States of VA, FL, OH, NC
- Bill O’Reilly | Anita Dunn PR Firm | Sandra Fluke | The Daily Caller – O’Reilly: Former Obama adviser Anita Dunn’s PR firm representing Sandra Fluke
- President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Too close to call in Alabama and Mississippi – Tuesday looks like it’s going to be a close election night in both Mississippi and Alabama. In Mississippi Newt Gingrich is holding on to a slight lead with 33% to 31% for Mitt Romney, 27% for Rick Santorum, and 7% for Ron Paul. And Alabama is even closer with Romney at 31% to 30% for Gingrich, 29% for Santorum, and 8% for Paul.
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@Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-03-10
- California lawmaker drops bid to oust Fish and Game commissioner – http://t.co/5MtiqMbH http://t.co/i5kHQ6fM #
- Why Job Growth Is Likely to Slow http://t.co/OAYmtc1C #
- Elections board wants recalls on May 15, June 12 http://t.co/CWGI8wjF #
- T Minus 5 minutes and counting for California Elections filing deadline #catcot #
- Elections board wants recalls on May 15, June 12 http://t.co/8VngxFxS #
- CA-25: Dante Acosta to Run for Congress Against Rep Buck McKeon | Flap's Blog – FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog http://t.co/xEakIP1V #
- Gloria Allred Loses Her Mind – Wants Rush Limbaugh Prosecuted | Flap's Blog – FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog http://t.co/il8pCAjD #
- Elections board wants recalls on May 15, June 12 http://t.co/j50O56fO #
- CA-25: Dante Acosta to Run for Congress Against Rep Buck McKeon http://t.co/AyZVtD9H #
- Gloria Allred Loses Her Mind – Wants Rush Limbaugh Prosecuted http://t.co/FNDimChG #
- Yes, Scott Walker has governed as he campaigned http://t.co/mcqMB1He #
- Wisconsin Elections board wants recalls on May 15, June 12 http://t.co/6QsahcXR #
- Obama Photo of the Day | Flap's Blog – FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog http://t.co/dJnSZy08 #
- Obama Photo of the Day http://t.co/bztW3qaq #
- The real unemployment rate? It sure isn’t 8.3% http://t.co/Cs6oVAjv #
- Bill O'Reilly | Anita Dunn PR Firm | Sandra Fluke | The Daily Caller http://t.co/8UENeZlN #
- Bill O'Reilly | Anita Dunn PR Firm | Sandra Fluke | The Daily Caller http://t.co/2fmON2tU #
- President 2012 Poll Watch: Obama Beating Romney in Four Key Battleground States of VA, FL, OH, NC | Flap's Blog … http://t.co/zaYZl46u #
- Bill O'Reilly | Anita Dunn PR Firm | Sandra Fluke | The Daily Caller http://t.co/fKjy7Mvf #
- AD-44: On Election Deadline Filing Day Where is California Assemblyman Jeff Gorell? » Flap's California Blog http://t.co/yFHoLCCb #
- State, L.A. jobless rates show small declines for January http://t.co/JwxoPfFq #
- Special Series: Broke Municipalities Look to Bankruptcy Option http://t.co/8QnpAEwl #
- President 2012 Poll Watch: Obama Beating Romney in Four Key Battleground States of VA, FL, OH, NC http://t.co/o4rjaNYe #
- O’Reilly: Former Obama adviser Anita Dunn’s PR firm representing Sandra Fluke http://t.co/N6k55YPi #
- AD-44: On Election Deadline Filing Day Where is California Assemblyman Jeff Gorell? http://t.co/NfhLQ03M #
- Limbaugh Rejects Sleep Train After it Requests to be Advertiser Again http://t.co/6cP6PaPJ #
- Limbaugh attack boomerangs on the White House http://t.co/yQjk6ZY2 #
- Apple at center of e-book price-fixing allegations http://t.co/AJwTzrrq #
- Limbaugh spurns Sleep Train's bid to resume advertising ties http://t.co/fG4MFzKC #
- The Morning Flap: March 9, 2012 http://t.co/GWxJuagK #
- The Daily Extraction: March 9, 2012 http://t.co/gzFH7G2G #
- Why It Is Important to Stay Moving – Blood Sugar Levels http://t.co/A94LFSel #
- AD-38: What Makes Patricia McKeon Qualified to Run for California Assembly? http://t.co/qvxvL6fI #
- New Jersey Dentist Paresh Patel Accused of Medicaid Fraud in False Dental Records Submitted After a Fire http://t.co/gUXgFxSq #
- Hong Kong Dentist Ng Tze-cheun to Explore the Great Pyramid of Giza http://t.co/bE0Tm69D #
- Kucinich May Still Run from Washington http://t.co/j80p4NLI #
- Flap’s California Morning Collection: March 9, 2012 http://t.co/5OK3WaTk #
- Day By Day March 9, 2012 – Rush http://t.co/ltLGAF9D #
- Scandal at The Washington Post: Fraud, Lobbying & Insider Trading http://t.co/8z24S7RJ #
- Pro-Obama PAC Won't Give Back Maher's Money http://t.co/UOH4d1G8 #
- Flap’s California Blog @ Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-03-09 http://t.co/6Bpx9Sbl #
- Romney Really Might Not Have the Delegates by June http://t.co/odAfUMHd #
- I refuse to go to the Radio and Television Correspondents Association Dinner – no one should go http://t.co/IUBZTKNp #
- @Flap Twitter Updates for 2012-03-09 http://t.co/rtHmEijI #
- CA-26: Democrat David Pollock Will NOT Run for Congress http://t.co/APXWlbkt #
- @MattRexroad In AD-38, let's hope it is Wilk Vs. Headington in November. Patricia McKeon will NOT hold seat for GOP & it is a GOP AD in reply to MattRexroad #
- AD-38: Scott Wilk and Edward Headington Officially File For California Assembly http://t.co/qoT8M3Cc #
- Mayor Barrett Indicates When He'll Decide About Run For Wisconsin Governor http://t.co/v821hHyl #
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Day By Day February 16, 2012 – Home Delivery
The Obama Presidency via the “Truth,” I mean “SPIN” squads is out in full campaign mode. The President today is in Southern California raising even more money to carry to key battleground states.And, what is the GOP doing?
The Presidential field is involved in a counter-productive attacks on each other instead of attacking the Obama record.
Looks like a long and losing Republican campaign for the Presidency.
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President 2012: How Do Gingrich and Romney Look Against Obama in the Electoral College?
The 2012 Republican presidential primary battle shifts to Florida, where Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney are locked in a tight battle. And, already, Republicans are starting to have visions of a Newt candidacy — and they don’t like what they see. That includes an electoral map that could look quite different — and much worse for them — than the one Romney or another Republican might compete on.Larry Sabato over at the University of Virginia Center for Politics has this excellent analysis. Long and short of it is: Newt Gingrich is more of a gamble to beat President Obama, should he win the Republican nomination.
To be clear, President Obama is vulnerable. His approval rating – 46% approve, 48.6% disapprove, according to the RealClearPolitics approval average — is middling. And against Mitt Romney, Obama’s vulnerability shows: in Pollster.com’s average of national polling, Obama leads Romney just 46.5% to 45.3%. But against Gingrich, the average tells a very different story — Obama, at 49.9%, leads Gingrich (39.1%) by more than 10 points.
Granted, there are outliers: Gallup on Tuesday had both Romney and Gingrich running evenly with Obama, both down 50% to 48%. But the bulk of the polling data indicates that Romney, at least at this point, is the stronger candidate against Obama.
Why does Romney fare better? Well, the best candidate against Obama remains “generic Republican” — that make-believe person who leads Obama by a single slim point, according to RealClearPolitics. Let’s be honest here: Romney’s the closest thing out there to a generic Republican available. He is not going to steal the presidency away from the incumbent if Obama’s having a good year and the economy is solid. Rather, if the country is ready to make a change, then Romney would be a credible alternative. The national polling numbers bear that out; they also show that Gingrich, at least right now, is not seen as a similarly acceptable alternative.
In other words, in the key battleground states of Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, Iowa and Florida, Gingrich looks like a risk to LOSE these states.
Here is my Electoral College Map from some months ago:
This map is from the interactive site, 270towin.com
Sobato and his staff make the argument that Gingrich will perform worse (at least he is polling worse now) than Romney in the states, the GOP needs to win to beat Obama.
This may very well be true, and the GOP Establishment have their own maps and are looking at the Senate and House race polls across the nation.
Romney is SAFE and Gingrich MAY underperform Obama.
But, what does the GOP base want in a candidate? A generic Republican, Romney nominee or a firebrand, big idea guy, like Gingrich.
Guess we will find out next tuesday in Florida.
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President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Gingrich Opens Up Large Leads in Florida and South Carolina
Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy
According to the latest NBC/Marist Poll.
Newt Gingrich’s surge in the polls isn’t limited to just the early presidential-nominating contest of Iowa.
According to new NBC News-Marist polls, the former House speaker has now opened up commanding leads in South Carolina and Florida — two states that historically have played important roles in deciding the eventual Republican nominee.
Fueled by the support from conservatives and the Tea Party, Gingrich is ahead of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney by nearly 20 points in South Carolina. The winner of that state’s primary has gone on to capture each GOP nomination since 1980.
And he leads Romney by double digits in Florida, whose primary ultimately ended up deciding the party’s pick in 2008.
I think this GOP primary race is just about over, unless Gingrich fumbles the ball with some momentous gaffe or something comes out that is very very damaging.
Now, the real questions are whether Newt Gingrich can unite the GOP and win against President Obama in the key battleground states or…..will another candidate come along.