“Call your members of Congress. Write them an email. Tweet it using the hashtag #My2K.” —President Obama
— Barack Obama (@BarackObama) November 28, 2012
The President went on a PR offensive with his tweet and hashtag this morning.
The White House’s ‘My2k’ hashtag campaign is a success on Twitter, trending nationally on Wednesday and stirring up debate over the upcoming tax rate deadline. But conservatives are fighting back, appropriating the hashtag and arguing their side of the debate.
The #My2k hashtag began trending nationwide on Twitter on Wednesday morning when senior members of the administration — in a coordinated effort — began tweeting about the hashtag campaign. Use surged anew after President Obama’s speech about extending middle-class tax rates, when he urged supporters to call, write, tweet at and post on the Facebook walls of their members of Congress.
But, all Speaker Boehner and the House GOP leadership have to do is pass a bill.
Pass an extension of the Social Security payroll tax cut and block its automatic rise from 4.2 percent of wages to 6.2 percent. To raise that tax now and scoop off the discretionary income of most of America’s families in this anemic economy makes no sense economically or politically.
The House should then vote to extend the Bush tax cuts for another year, with a pledge to do tax reform — lowering tax rates in return for culling, cutting or capping deductions for the well-to-do in the new year.
Then let Harry Reid work his will. If the Senate votes to let Social Security taxes rise, let Harry and his party explain this to the middle class that gets hammered in January. If the Senate votes to let the Bush tax cuts lapse for those over $200,000, decide in the caucus whether to negotiate — or to go home for Christmas and New Year’s.
As for the automatic sequester that would impose $100 billion in cuts next year, half in defense, do nothing. Let it take effect. The budget has to be cut, and while these cuts are heavy on defense, the depth and mixture can be adjusted in the new year.
There you go – very expedient.
But, so far, Speaker Boehner appears to be tone deaf – even from members of his own party, like Rep. Tom Cole.
Plus, Obama’s effort is actually funny:
— James Pethokoukis (@JimPethokoukis) November 28, 2012
I am an optimistic sort for the GOP and bucking the conventional wisdom believe that when all the votes are counted, Mitt Romney will be elected the 45th President of the United States. Note, my map above still has Iowa up in the air – but is irrelevant at this point.
By the time, the early Midwestern votes come in via exit polls, America should know the trend.
If Romney loses Ohio AND Wisconsin, he is probably toast.
If Obama loses any other state like Pennsylvania or Ohio, the President is done.
Others have offered their, I would say, balanced perspective.
In the final weeks of the presidential campaign, there have been two major schools of thought about who is going to win. One school points to President Obama getting reelected for a very simple reason: polls show Mitt Romney losing Ohio, and all of the states that he would need to win to make up for a loss in Ohio. The other school argues that state polls have been systematically biased against Romney by assuming that Democratic turnout will rival – or even exceed – elevated 2008 levels, when Obamamania was at its peak. Those who believe that Romney will win have pointed to polls showing him ahead among independents, predicted a late break toward the challenger, or pointed to economic fundamentals. To read the conventional wisdom pointing to an Obama win, check out Nate Silver. To read predictions of a Romney win, check out our own Michael Barone, as well as Dan McLaughlin, Ben Domenech, Jay Cost. Also read Ted Frank, who still thinks Obama will likely win, though he makes a strong devil’s advocate argument for how Romney could pull it out.
But, in the end, I think a majority of American voters are not happy with the direction of the country and will willing to vote for a change.
In any case, the majority of the House of Representatives looks safely in the hands of the GOP. The U.S. Senate majority will remain under Democratic Party control.
Balanced or split party government is what Americans desire and that is what they will have after the voting tomorrow.
Here are the latest key battleground state polls:
- Florida: Romney 52%, Obama 47% (InsiderAdvantage)
- Florida: Obama 50%, Romney 49% (Public Policy Polling)
- Florida: Romney 50%, Obama 48% (Pulse Opinion Research)
- North Carolina: Obama 49%, Romney 49% (Public Policy Polling)
- Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 46% (Pulse Opinion Research)
- Pennsylvania: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (Pulse Opinion Research)
- Virginia: Obama 48%, Romney 47% (NBC/WSJ/Marist)
- Virginia: Obama 49%, Romney 48% (Pulse Opinion Research)
- Wisconsin: Obama 49%, Romney 48% (Pulse Opinion Research)
The Real Clear Politics average of polls and more are here.
As I have been saying for about a week now – the Presidential race is very close and we will be in for an exciting night of election returns.
If the polls are correct, then we will be in for a very late night Tuesday and early morning Wednesday.
The above graphic is how the Presidential race will turn out in the Electoral College on November the 6th. I have Mitt Romney defeating President Obama 271 Electoral Votes vs. 261 Electoral Votes.
Most notable recent changes I have made have been the loss of Ohio to the President and the pick up of Colorado for Romney.
Here is my Electoral College map I made after Mitt Romney chose Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin for his Vice President running mate.
To say the least, the race is tight.
Mitt Romney continues to make a play for Nevada and I understand as of yesterday, he made a very large television ad buy in Northern Nevada – the Reno market.
Recent polling by Rasmussen and Gallup have Ohio all tied up – well within the margins of error. Ohio could go either way. I think Obama now needs Ohio more than Romney in order to win, which goes against the maxim that GOP Presidential wins go through Ohio.
Stay tuned as more polls roll in throughout the next few days.
However, I think, my first map with a 271 Electoral College Vote win for Romney will probably be the end result.
Interesting, isn’t it that on the eve of the third and last Presidential debate there is a “leaked” report or an October Surprise about Iran?
The New York Times reports (and the White House denies) that “The United States and Iran have agreed for the first time to one-on-one negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, according to Obama administration officials, setting the stage for what could be a last-ditch diplomatic effort to avert a military strike on Iran.”
Two of the three assertions in that lead paragraph are demonstrably false. One-on-one negotiations have been going on for years (most recently, according to my friend “Reza Kahlili,” in Doha, where, he was told, Valerie Jarrett and other American officials recently traveled for the latest talks). The only news here is that the talks would no longer be secret. And the notion that only diplomacy can avert “a military strike on Iran” is fanciful. There are at least two other ways: sanctions may compel the regime to stop its nuclear weapons program, or the Iranian people may find a way to overthrow the regime, thereby (perhaps, at least) rendering military action unnecessary.
I rather suspect that you don’t have to do anything to avoid an American military strike on Iran. I can’t imagine an Obama administration authorizing a military attack. An administration that can barely bring itself to fly air cover in Libya, and can’t bring itself to take any serious action in Syria, strikes me as very unlikely to unleash our armed forces against the mullahs.
Even as the debate approaches, remember you can fool some of the people ONLY some of the time.
Anyone want to bet how many times Obama spikes the football regarding the demise of Osama bin Laden tonight?
Sorry readers that I have not recently posted Chris Muir’s Day By Day cartoon. I will try to be more prolific in my posting.
Chris, you have to watch women and that “WEIGHT” issue. Remember that this is way too shallow.
With regards to Candy Crowley’s conduct at the Presidential debate, now that can be criticized.
Is there any doubt that she helped President Obama escape a truthful explanation of the Libya terrorist debacle?
And, didn’t CNN’s Crowley derail Mitt Romney with constant interruptions and allowing President Obama to have more time for his explanations.
The Town Hall format of the debate was a fail and Crowley was a failure.
For the first time, Real Clear Politics and their poll averages has Mitt Romney beating President Obama in the Electoral College.
The map is similar to my map from several months ago.
This map is from the interactive site, 270towin.com
But, what is interesting is that a number of states that many have thought in the Team Obama camp, may be in play – most notably Pennsylvania and Michigan.
The battleground state polls after the Monday night debate, should deliver a clearer picture of what will happen on November 6th.
By the way, the magic number of Electoral College votes to win is 270.
President Obama’s loss of momentum traces back to the first Presidential debate when Mitt Romney schooled the President. But, the latest Gallup Poll is even more telling.
Half of likely voters now prefer Mitt Romney for president and 46% back President Barack Obama in Gallup interviewing through Monday.
While Romney’s four-percentage-point advantage is not statistically significant, he has consistently edged ahead of Obama each of the past several days in Gallup’s seven-day rolling averages conducted entirely after the Oct. 3 presidential debate. Prior to that debate — regarded as a decisive Romney win by political experts and Americans who watched it — Romney averaged less than a one-point lead over Obama among likely voters.
The latest result, from Oct. 9-15, is based on 2,723 likely voters drawn from more than 3,100 registered voters.
And, here is the registered voters poll chart – note the trend.
Here is the chart:
Degreed voters backing off Obama: In 2008, Obama led McCain among postgraduate educated voters by a 30-point margin, while he ran roughly even with McCain among those with lower levels of education. Today, Obama’s postgraduate advantage has been cut to 14 points and he trails Romney among college graduates (those with four-year degrees only) by 22 points. His support from high school graduates and those with some college is also down slightly, providing no counterbalance to his major losses among the college educated.
Southern losses: The South gave Obama the least support of any region in 2008, but still split their vote evenly for Obama vs. McCain. Today, Southerners favor Romney by a 22-point margin, the largest shift of any region. Voters in the East are also less supportive, while preferences in the West and Midwest are little changed.
Young voters stick with him: Young voters were an important part of Obama’s 2008 coalition, and in 2012 they continue to support him overwhelmingly, at roughly the same level as four years ago. The difficulty for Obama is that he currently has less support among each older age group, particularly those aged 30 to 49 years.
White support dwindles: Obama lost the white vote in 2008 by 12 percentage points, but that was more than offset by a 72-point lead among nonwhites. Today, Obama has a more daunting 22-point deficit among whites, while his margin over Romney among nonwhites is essentially unchanged.
Men move away: In 2008, Gallup found a 14-point swing in gender preferences for president, with women favoring Obama by a 14-point margin and men tied in their preferences for Obama vs. McCain. Today, there is a 20-point gender gap. Women’s support for Obama shrank to six percentage points, while men favor Romney by 14 points.
So, what does this all mean?
The President is in trouble for re-election. Mitt Romney has been surging since the first Denver Presidential debate and if Obama does not reverse this course in three weeks there will be a new President come 2013.
Watch the President come out swinging in tonight’s debate.
Obama really has to hit a home run or he is toast.
Mitt Romney leads President Obama by four percentage points among likely voters in the nation’s top battlegrounds, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, and he has growing enthusiasm among women to thank.
As the presidential campaign heads into its final weeks, the survey of voters in 12 crucial swing states finds female voters much more engaged in the election and increasingly concerned about the deficit and debt issues that favor Romney. The Republican nominee now ties the president among women who are likely voters, 48%-48%, while he leads by 12 points among men.
The battle for women, which was apparent in the speakers spotlighted at both political conventions this summer, is likely to help define messages the candidates deliver at the presidential debate Tuesday night and in the TV ads they air during the final 21 days of the campaign. As a group, women tend to start paying attention to election contests later and remain more open to persuasion by the candidates and their ads.
That makes women, especially blue-collar “waitress moms” whose families have been hard-hit by the nation’s economic woes, the quintessential swing voters in 2012’s close race.
The conventional wisdom is that President Obama will be the aggressor at tomorrow night’s town-hall style Presidential debate. But, there is risk to that approach, especially with women.
In any case, Mitt Romney is in far better shape on the eve of the second Presidential debate than he was before the first.
The Obama Administration has NOT been truthful on the Benghazi debacle.
But, alas, it was her boss who chose to “politicize” a security fiasco and national humiliation in Benghazi. At 8:30 p.m., when Ambassador Stevens strolled outside the gate and bid his Turkish guest good night, the streets were calm and quiet. At 9:40 p.m., an armed assault on the compound began, well planned and executed by men not only armed with mortars but capable of firing them to lethal purpose — a rare combination among the excitable mobs of the Middle East. There was no demonstration against an Islamophobic movie that just got a little out of hand. Indeed, there was no movie protest at all. Instead, a U.S. consulate was destroyed and four of its personnel were murdered in one of the most sophisticated military attacks ever launched at a diplomatic facility.
This was confirmed by testimony to Congress a few days ago, although you could have read as much in my column of four weeks ago. Nevertheless, for most of those four weeks, the president of the United States, the secretary of state, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, and others have persistently attributed the Benghazi debacle to an obscure YouTube video — even though they knew that the two events had nothing to do with each other by no later than the crack of dawn Eastern time on September 12, by which point the consulate’s survivors had landed safely in Tripoli.
So, a pants on fire Jay Carney should NOT be a surprise.