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President 2012 GOP North Carolina Poll Watch: Romney 17% Vs. Perry 17% Vs. Palin 17% Vs. Bachmann 9%
According to the latest PPP Poll.
- Rick Perry 17%
- Mitt Romney 17%
- Michele Bachmann 9%
- Sarah Palin 17%
- Ron Paul 7%
- Herman Cain 11%
- Newt Gingrich 10%
- Tim Pawlenty 2%
- Jon Huntsman 1%
With Sarah Palin out of the race:
- Mitt Romney 16%
- Rick Perry 17%
- Michele Bachmann 17%
- Newt Gingrich 11%
- Ron Paul 11%
- Tim Pawlenty 4%
- Herman Cain 9%
- Jon Huntsman 2%
Another good initial poll for Texas Governor Rick Perry. It looks like he goes into North Carolina in a very good position with both Bachmann and Romney fading in the most recent polls.
Only two days into the race and in North Carolina, Rick Perry can be considered a co-front runner.
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President 2012 Video: Sarah Palin Rips Mitt Romney Over Finger in the Wind Position on Debt Limit Deal
Is this Sarah’s last stand before she decides NOT to run against Mitt?
Or, is she planning to get behind fellow Tea Partier Michele Bachmann?
The long painful wait for Sarah to either launch or not launch her Presidential campaign will soon be over, in any case.
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President 2012 North Carolina GOP Poll Watch: Romney and Bachmann Co-Front Runners
According to the latest PPP Poll.
In North Carolina the numbers are very similar. There Romney leads Bachmann 23-22 with Rick Perry debuting at 14% and Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich at 9%, Ron Paul at 6%, Tim Pawlenty at 5%, and Jon Huntsman at 2% rounding out the field.
North Carolina’s a rare state where Bachmann actually edges out Romney with centrist voters, 23-21. But his 12 point lead with voters just right of center at 30-18 outweighs her 9 point advantage with far right voters at 26-17.
If you add Palin to the equation in North Carolina she finished 4th at 12% behind Romney at 18%, Bachmann at 17%, and Palin at 12%.
But, the real questions remain:
- When will Texas Governor Rick Perry announce?
- Will Sarah Palin run?
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President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Rick Perry is Leading in the South While Mitt Romney Leads in the West
According to the latest Gallup Poll.Texas Gov. Rick Perry is the favorite among southern Republicans when they are asked to say who they are most likely to support for the party’s 2012 presidential nomination, with a 22% to 13% advantage over Sarah Palin in that region. Mitt Romney has a similar edge, 24% to 12%, over Michele Bachmann in the West. Romney and Rudy Giuliani essentially tie for first in the East, with Romney holding a slight advantage among midwestern Republicans.
These results are based on a July 20-24 Gallup poll that shows Romney (17%) and Perry (15%) in a statistical tie as the preferred nominee among Republicans nationwide. However, Romney has a more significant lead among the more limited set of announced GOP candidates, which excludes Perry, Palin, and Giuliani.
This is a good poll for Rick Perry who has NOT even anounced an official candidacy. When he does in late August he will zoom past Michele Bachmann into second place.
With regards to Sarah Palin, she remains a “wild card” in this race. I have written for weeks now that should she run, then Rudy Giuliani would run. Rudy figures his strength in the East and somewhat in California might propel him to a place at the table at a “brokered” GOP Convention.
But, remember Rick Perry and Rudy are friends. Perry endorsed Rudy in 2008 and it would not be surprising that should Palin not decide to run, that Rudy would endorse Perry which would swing support to him in the East and West.
So, we wait for a few weeks and see what Sarah Palin announces at a Tea Party rally in Iowa on September 3rd.
Given Romney’s positioning among southern Republicans, a candidate like Perry could pose the most significant threat to him. One key would be whether Perry, as he became better known (currently 56% of Republicans are familiar with him), would expand his appeal in other regions, or if his core support would remain limited to the South. If the latter, Romney may still be able to hold onto his status as the front-runner even if his support in the South drops. If the former, Perry could emerge as the new GOP front-runner should he become an official candidate.
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President 2012: Sarah Palin to Keynote Iowa Tea Party Rally on September 3
A movie poster advertising the Sarah Palin documentary “The Undefeated” is seen at the film’s premiere in Pella, Iowa June 28, 2011. The documentary traces Palin’s rise from mayor of tiny Wasilla, Alaska, to state governor and her rise as the Republican vice presidential nominee and John McCain’s running mate in 2008
It is not as if Sarah will announce her candidacy for President or anything.In the latest indication that her sights are still set on a presidential run, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin has accepted an invitation to keynote a Tea Party rally in Waukee, Iowa, on Sept. 3, RealClearPolitics has learned.
The Labor Day weekend visit to the nation’s first voting state comes after Palin indicated during an appearance on Fox News earlier this month that she would make her decision about whether to launch a campaign in August or September.
All signs now point to September as the month when Palin would throw her hat into the ring, as logistical concerns ranging from fundraising to getting her name on the ballot in various states would likely preclude further delay.
Many prominent political analysts and Republican operatives have expressed skepticism that Palin is seriously considering a presidential bid, since she has not taken many of the steps that candidates traditionally take before jumping into the race, such as signing early-state consultants, contacting key powerbrokers and boosting their travel schedules.
But Palin has a long history of shunning the Republican Party machinery and taking an unconventional approach to campaigns — a mind-set that appears to have been in play throughout the past several months.
Palin’s latest appearance in Iowa will come just two days after “The Undefeated,” a documentary film spotlighting her accomplishments in Alaska, will be released on Pay-Per-View and video-on-demand. In the film, Palin is portrayed as a continual thorn in the Republican establishment’s side. And it is the GOP, rather than the Democratic Party, that garners the better part of the movie’s scorn.
If Palin were to announce a White House run, the theme of her campaign would almost certainly focus on resisting the ingrained political culture and what she sees as being wrong with the status quo, and much of the Republican Party itself, in addition to continuing to offer one of the most strident contrasts to President Obama’s policies.
The outdoor rally on the first Saturday in September will take place at a field in Waukee, located just outside of Des Moines, and will be hosted by the Tea Party of America — an Iowa-based political action committee that was founded in May.
The midday affair will be the new group’s kickoff event and is sure to generate a large crowd and massive media attention.
I am tired of try to prognosticate what Sarah will do, because she is unpredicatble. I can dare say though, that if she runs, so will Rick Perry and Rudy Giuliani.
Sarah is the “wild card” without a doubt in the race for President in 2012.
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President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Romney 17% Vs. Perry 15% Vs. Palin 12% Vs. Giuliani 11% Vs. Bachmann 11%
According to the latest Gallup Poll.Mitt Romney is the leader for the GOP nomination among the current field of official candidates, supported by 27% of Republicans, compared with 18% for Michele Bachmann. However, Rick Perry would essentially tie Romney, with Sarah Palin and Rudy Giuliani close behind, in a scenario in which all three of these undecided candidates entered the race.
The results are based on a July 20-24 Gallup poll. Eight of the 11 Republicans included in the poll have announced their official candidacies. Giuliani, Palin, and Perry are not official candidates but are still actively considering becoming candidates even though the first nominating contests are less than seven months away. Any of the three would start from a relatively strong national position, with all registering at least double-digit support in the poll.
Nothing really has changed on this national poll. We continue to have an unsettled GOP field with Sarah Palin playing the “Wild Card.”
Texas Governor looks like the most likely unannounced candidate actually throwing his hat in the ring. Sarah and Rudy – well, not so much.
But, who knows?
I continue to maintain that if Sarah Palin runs, then so will Rudy Giuliani. If she doesn’t, then Rudy supports Rick Perry and Bachmann fades as the anti-Romney candidate.
Romney is the nominal front-runner for the Republican nomination, though his status is weaker now than a month ago and could be weakened further by the entry of a candidate like Perry, Palin, or Giuliani. Still, none of those potential candidates’ support exceeds Romney’s at the moment.
The time for any other candidates to enter the race is running short, though there is a precedent for candidates jumping in after Labor Day, as in 2003 (Democrat Wesley Clark) and 2007 (Republican Fred Thompson), though neither candidate fared well in the early primaries and caucuses.
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President 2012 South Carolina GOP Poll Watch: Mitt Romney 25% Vs.Sarah Palin 16% Vs. Michele Bachmann 13%
According to the latest ARG Poll.
But, with Texas governor Rick Perry soon to enter the race and Sarah Palin continuing to be undecided, this result is very fluid.
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President 2012: Iowa Governor Branstad Says Texas Governor Rick Perry Will Enter Presidential Race After Ames Straw Poll
Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad, right, listens as Hilton Garden Inn owner Larry Miller, foreground, talks about his hotel being surrounded by Missouri River floodwaters, during a tour Branstad took of flooding in Sioux City, Iowa, Monday, June 27, 2011
So, how will this affect the race?Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad said Friday that Rick Perry, his Texas counterpart, is “seriously considering” entering the Republican presidential race.
While he has not yet spoken to Perry about a possible run, Branstad said the Texas governor chatted recently by phone with Kim Reynolds, his lieutenant governor.
Branstad, who was in Utah for the National Governors Association annual meeting, told CNN that Perry’s fact-finding calls into Iowa have left him with the impression that a presidential bid is likely.
He predicted that Perry will jump in “sometime after” the Ames Straw Poll on August 13.
Branstad also said Perry can “absolutely” afford to skip the straw poll, traditionally a test of each campaign’s organizational strength in the leadoff caucus state.
The wild card question is: will Sarah Palin jump into the race?
Texas Governor Rick Perry will replace Michele Bachmann as the anti-Romney candidate. But, Bachmann will run strong in Iowa but can she sustain her popularity into South Carolina and Florida?
As the long-time Governor of Texas, he certainly has the executive experience. Look for the GOP Washington Establishment to push a Rick Perry and Marco Rubio ticket.
Of course, Mitt Romney may have something to say about all of this and so might Sarah.
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President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Romney 25% Bachmann 14% Palin 12% Perry 10%
Republican presidential candidate, Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., speaks with Rep. Steve King, R-Iowa., during a news conference on Capitol Hill in Washington, Wednesday, July 13, 2011
According to the latest Quinnipiac University Poll.A new national poll shows Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann surging into second place behind longtime front-runner Mitt Romney in the Republican presidential race.
Romney leads Bachmann, 25 percent to 14 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday. Sarah Palin places third with 12 percent and Texas Gov. Rick Perry garners 10 percent support. Romney’s support remained unchanged since the last Quinnipiac poll taken a month ago, while Bachmann picked up eight percentage points. With Bachmann moving up, Palin lost three points.
The poll also suggests that Romney and Bachmann have the most to gain if Perry or Palin stays out of the race. In Perry’s absence, Romney leads Bachmann by 28 percent to 16 percent and Palin places third with 13 percent. In a Palin-less race, Romney continues to lead with 28 percent support, followed by Bachmann with 17 percent and Perry at 10 percent.
Romney comes the closest to President Obama in a head-to-head matchup, trailing the president, 47 percent to 41 percent. This margin has not changed since the last Quinnipiac poll. Though he trails overall, Romney edges Obama among independents, 42 percent to 40 percent.
The president leads the other top candidates with at least 50 percent support, topping Bachmann, 50-38; Palin, 53-34; and Perry, 50-37. He tops these candidates among independents as well.
So, the political world waits for Sarah Palin and/or Rick Perry to make their move. aAnd, don’t forget Rudy Giuliani who could win many Northeastern GOP states and create a “brokered” convention scenario.
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President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Sarah Palin Still a Formidable Presence Among Republicans
According to the latest Gallup Poll.Sarah Palin — who has not yet announced whether she will run for president — remains a formidable presence among Republicans nationwide. She is almost universally recognized, and her current Positive Intensity Score ties her with Mitt Romney, trailing only Herman Cain and Michele Bachmann.
A Newsweek cover story on the former Alaska governor and 2008 vice presidential candidate quoted Palin as saying, “I believe that I can win a national election,” and that she is still thinking about running.
Palin’s high 95% name recognition — the highest of any candidate or potential candidate Gallup is tracking — is one of her major political attributes. Her Positive Intensity Score, currently 15, has been in the 13 to 19 range throughout the year so far. This puts her behind Cain and Bachmann, but in roughly the same range as Romney. At the same time, Palin generates stronger emotions — both positive and negative — than Romney does. His Positive Intensity Score is based on the difference between the 18% of those who recognize him who have a strongly favorable opinion and the 3% who have a strongly unfavorable opinion. A significantly higher 25% of Republicans who recognize Palin have a strongly favorable opinion of her and a higher 9% have a strongly unfavorable opinion (Palin’s net Positive Intensity Score is 15 because of rounding when precise numbers are calculated).
Palin’s 25% strongly favorable rating is the highest of any candidate tested in the latest two-week average, from June 27-July 10, one percentage point ahead of Cain’s 24% and five points ahead of Bachmann’s 20%.
But, Sarah will have to do more than give interviews to Newsweek. She will have to run and run against Michele Bachmann and Mitt Romney. At least two candidates are waiting for Sarah to fish or cut bait in this race: Rick Perry, and Rudy Giuliani.
I continue to doubt she will run and if she does, Palin will hope that Perry and Giuliani jump in as well.
Sarah will do well in a multi-way race in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida.
The GOP field to some degree is in a holding pattern, with candidates such as Palin, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani sitting on the sidelines while pondering their decisions on whether to officially get into the race. If any or all of these politicians do decide to run, the nature of Republicans’ sentiments about the candidates and whom they favor for their party’s nomination may change. At the moment, Cain and Bachmann generate the highest levels of enthusiasm among rank-and-file Republicans who recognize them, with Palin and Romney trailing them. Of the remaining announced candidates, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul do best, while Jon Huntsman, Gingrich, and Gary Johnson are lagging behind in terms of Positive Intensity.