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Day By Day August 22, 2011 – Odds
Day By Day by Chris MuirChris, Sarah Palin may very well run but according to most polls would be running against “all” odds. In a multi-candidate field she will do well in the early proportional GOP primary elections, but whether she can win at the GOP Convention is another story.I guess we will see on September 3rd in Iowa, although reports are now coming out that are downplaying this event.
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President 2012: Former New York Governor George Pataki to Run for President?
Former New York Gov. George Pataki, center right, is greeted as he leaves St. Patrick’s Cathedral after the funeral of former Gov. Hugh Carey Thursday, Aug. 11, 2011 in New York. The Brooklyn-born Carey served two terms as New York governor from 1975 to 1982 after seven terms as a congressman representing his home borough
I guess the more the merrier.A spokesman has confirmed that former Governor George Pataki is strongly considering entering the crowded race for the Republican presidential nomination.
Sources say Pataki, who left office in 2007, could make an announcement as early as next week.
If he were to run, Pataki would face several major obstacles including launching an operation with little campaign cash and facing several opponents who have been meeting voters in Iowa and New Hampshire for months.
Pataki has been a vocal critic of President Barack Obama’s health care plan.
There is a path to the GOP Presidential nomination for Rudy Giuliani but I do not know if Pataki will do particularly well. But, if and when Sarah Palin enters the race, in a multi-candidate field for GOP delegates, Pataki who is very experienced, may be a player.
But, can he raise sufficient campaign cash to run in New Hampshire and Florida?
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Day By Day August 21, 2011
Day By Day by Chris MuirBanco – you betcha…..When Sarah Palin enters the Presidential race for 2012, President Obama will indeed have his hands full. I mean., who does the LEFT attack?
- Romney?
- Perry?
- Bachmann?
- Newt?
or……
Sarah Palin?
Palin’s September 3rd speechin Iowa is the beginning of the end for “The One.”
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Day By Day August 20, 2012 – Open Season
Day By Day by Chris MuirThe issue of illegal immigration and the pandering by President Obama will be an issue in the 2102 Presidential race. You see, Obama needs to win those Hispanic votes in Florida and New Mexico for his re-election campaign. And, he hopes to fund raise in the Hispanic communities in California where he is a lock to win in this very “blue” state.With regards to Sarah Palin, I think she will run – as other D.C. pundits have said.
Former Bush advisor Karl Rove says he believes former Alaska governor Sarah Palin will enter the Republican presidential race sometime around Labor Day. Appearing on Fox News Saturday morning, Rove said Palin “has a schedule next week that looks like that of a candidate, not a celebrity.” Rove also cited a new campaign-style video Palin has released on her recent visit to the Iowa State Fair as evidence Palin is gearing up for a run.
Palin will be the keynote speaker at the Tea Party of America’s “Restoring America” event in Iowa September 3. The event location was recently moved from Waukee, Iowa, to Indianola, Iowa to accommodate a larger crowd.
“This is her last chance,” Rove said. “She either gets in or gets out [after the Iowa visit]. I think she gets in.”
A late entry into Iowa always raises questions about whether a candidate has the time to raise money, build an organization and meet voters face-to-face. Rove was asked whether a Palin candidacy might operate from “a different playbook” — that is, one that does not touch the traditional bases in Iowa. “She thinks the normal rules don’t apply,” Rove said. “If you’re Sarah Palin, you just show up and the money comes and the organization comes and the people come.”
Chris, congrats on your fund raising campaign. In this poor economy, where many are struggling, it is refreshing to see that people will sacrifice to support your quality work at Day By Day.
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President 2012 Video: Sarah Palin Organizer Confident She Will Run?
“Iowa Passion” Sarah Palin at the Iowa State Fair last weekNobody really knows what Sarah Palin will do but there is a lot of speculation and buzz today.
Sarah Palin’s Sept. 3 event has been relocated from Waukee to Indianola to better accommodate a larger crowd, organizers said.
Palin is the keynote speaker at the Tea Party of America’s “Restoring America” event, which is free and open to the public.
The event was originally scheduled at Hawkeye Antique Acres in Waukee. The event is now scheduled from 11 a.m. to 2 p.m. at the National Balloon Classic field, east of Indianola.
There has been speculation that Palin, a former governor of Alaska and 2008 Republican vice presidential candidate, could use the event as an opportunity to announce whether she plans to run for president in 2012.
“I don’t know if she’s going to announce or not,” said Charlie Gruschow, co-founder of Tea Party of America. “But whether or not she announces, we’re going to have a huge event.”
I think she will run.
With Rick Perry in the race, a multi-candidate field with two other conservatives and one moderate (Mitt Romney) is a “perfect” storm for her.
But, I. also, think that Rudy Giuliani may then run or endorse Rick Perry and tie up the delegates in Florida, East and Far West.
The next few weeks will prove to be a very interesting time.
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President 2012 GOP California Poll Watch: Romney 22% Vs. Perry 15% Vs. Palin 10% Vs. Bachmann 8.5%
According to the latest Probolsky Research Poll.
An interesting poll with a small sample size, includes Sarah Palin and does NOT include Rudy Giuliani who is very popular in California.So, I say take it as – meh……
It is likely, but NOT highly likely that with a crowded GOP field, the California Presidential Primary Election which will be held in June 2012 will actually matter. Most candidates in the GOP field and certainly the party would like the nomination contest to be over long before then.
Why?
California is a very large state and the media markets extremely expensive. Plus, California is going for Obama no matter what and any cross-over campaigning for the general election will not matter.
Also, remember, the California Primary has historically been “winner take all” and having the election so late will allow the party to set the rules in this manner
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President 2012 GOP Wisconsin Poll Watch: Perry 20% Vs. Bachmann 20% Vs. Romney 13%
According to the latest PPP Poll.
Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann are tied for the Republican Presidential lead in Wisconsin at 20%…with Mitt Romney all the way back at 13%. Sarah Palin at 11%, Herman Cain at 7%, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul at 6%, Tim Pawlenty (the poll was conducted before he dropped out) at 3%, and Jon Huntsman at 1% round out the field.
These numbers make it clear that Bachmann and Perry have all the momentum in the state, while all the other candidates are losing steam. Perry wasn’t even tested when we polled Wisconsin in May and Bachmann’s up 9 points now from her 11% standing then. Everyone else is on the decline- Pawlenty’s fall was the worst, down 8 points from 11% in May to now 3%. You can see why he dropped out.
Palin’s support is down 5 points, Romney, Paul, and Gingrich are each down 4, Cain’s down 3, and Huntsman’s down 1. At least in Wisconsin Perry and Bachmann are clearly sucking the wind out of the rest of the field and it’s going to be interesting to see if that’s the case everywhere in polling over the next couple weeks.
Another poor showing for Mitt Romney in an early GOP primary state after Texas Governor Rick Perry’s recent entrance into the Presidential race.
And, this poll assumes a Sarah Palin candidacy which at this time would likely be siphoning votes away from Bachmann and Perry.
If you take Palin out of the picture Bachmann gains even more steam, getting 24% to 20% for Perry, 17% for Romney, and 10% for Gingrich.
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President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Perry 29% Vs. Romney 18% Vs. Bachmann 13%
According to the latest Rasmussen Poll.
Texas Governor Rick Perry, the new face in the race for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination, has jumped to a double-digit lead over Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann with the other announced candidates trailing even further behind.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary voters, taken Monday night, finds Perry with 29% support. Romney, the former Massachusetts governor who ran unsuccessfully for the GOP presidential nomination in 2008, earns 18% of the vote, while Bachmann, the Minnesota congresswoman who won the high-profile Ames Straw Poll in Iowa on Saturday, picks up 13%.
Texas Congressman Ron Paul, who was a close second to Bachmann on Saturday, has the support of nine percent (9%) of Likely Primary Voters, followed by Georgia businessman Herman Cain at six percent (6%) and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich with five percent (5%). Rick Santorum, former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania, and ex-Utah Governor Jon Huntsman each get one percent (1%) support, while Michigan Congressman Thaddeus McCotter comes in statistically at zero.
Sixteen percent (16%) of primary voters remain undecided.
An Uh Oh moment for the presumed front-runner Mitt Romney.
Is there any wonder why Karl Rove said last night that he exepcted others to enter the race? In fact, rumors have been plentiful today that Representative Paul Ryan is now considering the race.
Wisconsin congressman Paul Ryan is strongly considering a run for president. Ryan, who has been quietly meeting with political strategists to discuss a bid over the past three months, is on vacation in Colorado discussing a prospective run with his family. Ryan’s concerns about the effects of a presidential campaign – and perhaps a presidency – on his family have been his primary focus as he thinks through his political future.
Then, there continues to be the real wild card candidate, Sarah Palin and Rudy Giuliani who likely would run, if Palin does.
Stay tuned…….
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President 2012: Why Rudy Giuliani Continues to Consider a Presidential Race
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has been quietly but steadily traveling to New Hampshire discussing his long shot Presidential ambitions. But, is this a Quixotic attempt to stay relevant or is there something more?Looking at the GOP nomination calendar, it may indeed be something more.
Now, Texas Governor Rick Perry and Rudy are friends. Perry endorsed Rudy’s Presidential race in 2008 and I do not know how this calculus works. Nor, do I know whether Sarah Palin will actually enter the Presidential arena.
But, let us assume that Sarah Palin runs and Rudy enters the race as a moderate alternative to Sarah and Michele Bachmann.
Can Rudy Giuliani win the nomination? Or, at least have a shot?
The short answer is: Rudy Giuliani can either win or determine who the 2012 Presidential nominee will be.
Let’s look at the GOP primary nomination calendar.
Here are the early states.There are two things you really need to pay attention to here. First, note the states with asterisks. The RNC has decided to strip half of the delegates from any state that holds a primary or caucus before March 1, other than Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, or Nevada. Some states are considering pushing their primaries back, although these also tend to be the more moderate states, like Wisconsin and New Jersey. The more conservative states seem to be hanging tough, for now. In other words, you could end up with some of the more conservative states in the GOP electorate losing clout at the convention.
Please note the states of New Hampshire, Florida and New Jersey in the early state category where Rudy Giuliani will definitely win some delegates (remember these races are proportional contests – not winner take all).
I can see a scenario where the more conservative candidates of Perry, Bachmann, and Palin split the conservative wing of the party and Giuliani beats or remains a close second to Mitt Romney after the early contests.
Next, come the next tier of elections in March:
Here there are sufficient large and moderate GOP states to provide delegates to a Giuliani candidacy – Illinois, Michigan, Massachusetts and Vermont. Remember again, that the Republican National Committee has ruled that states who conduct primaries prior to April 1 must allocate their delegates proportionately.
Again, a Giuliani candidacy can remain credible with maybe not the plurality of delegates, but a sufficient amount leading into the post-April primaries:
Note that these post-April primary contests are considerably more moderate on political orientation and include New York and California. These are both states that Giuliani could win all of the delegates since they might become winner take all contests. Rudy would also do well in the other Eastern and Far West states, including Oregon, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Washington.
Giuliani could either gather a plurality of delegates by the end of the primary season and unite with a conservative candidate (namely Rick Perry, his friend) as his Vice President selection and go into the Florida GOP Convention with a majority of delegates.
Or, Rudy could broker his delegates to the “will” of the convention and accept the Vice Presidency.
Sean Trende over at Real Clear Politics begins his piece with the meme of how well Romney will do against Rick Perry.I think Sean has it a little wrong.
He has just made the case for a Rudy Giuliani candidacy.
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President 2012: Karl Rove Expects Sarah Palin, Chris Christie and/or Paul Ryan to Enter Presidential Race?
GOP Political operative Karl Rove on Fox News Channel last nightTexas Governor is the candidate of the hour, but Karl Rove makes the case that more may enter the Presidential arena.
ROVE: We’ve got a good field. I don’t think that’s the end, though, of the field. I think we’re likely to see several other candidates think seriously about getting in, and frankly, they have time to do so.
November 22 is the first deadline to file papers to get on a ballot — that’s the last day somebody could get in without starting to lose their place in some of the early primaries or caucuses.
I suspect we’re likely to see an early September, late August — people taking it seriously.
SEAN HANNITY: All right, who are these people you suspect might get in?
ROVE: I think Palin.
HANNITY: You do think Palin?
ROVE: Well, I think she’s going to look seriously at it. I don’t know if any of these are going to actually get in, but I think that the nature of the field, and the fact that we’ve now got three candidates when we could have had four, five, or six major candidates is going to lead people to say “Well, I could be in that contest.”
Palin has got a pretty active schedule in early September. I think Chris Christie and Paul Ryan are going to look at it again, and I wouldn’t be surprised if all three of them gave serious consideration to it….
HANNITY: I’ve talked to Governor Christie a lot and he says “No way”.
I was more convinced Gov. Palin after I saw her and interviewed her Friday night at the Iowa state fair that she might get in now.
Paul Ryan, I don’t think has given any indication. What makes you think those two will get in — meaning Ryan and Christie.
ROVE: Well, two things. There was an event in New York — [co-founder of Home Depot] Ken Langone pulled together some big moneyraisers and met with Christie and said “you need to think seriously about this.”
And it’s not just the meeting. What happened afterwards — from what I picked up around the country — I talked to a number of people who had picked up the phone and called Christie to tell him they thought that he ought to run. These are Republican activists, Republican donors, movers and shakers, activists around the country.
And the same on Paul Ryan, and I’m starting to pick up some sort of vibrations that these kinds of conversations are causing Christie and Ryan to tell the people who are calling them “Well, you know what, I owe it to you. I think I will take a look at it.”
Whether or not that happens or not, I don’t know, but I’m just picking that up that people have some sense, some belief that these two guys are going to take a look at it.
I agree that Sarah Palin is a wild card in the race fro 2012 and should Sarah enter the race, the conservative field would be scattered all over the map. I, also, predict that should Palin run, so would Rudy Giuliani which would really divide the GOP Presidential delegate distribution.
I can foresee a scenario where the GOP nomination comes down to the California GOP primary election in June (likely, a winner take all election) or a “brokered” convention – much like Ford Vs. Reagan in 1976.