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share save 120 16 Fiscal Cliff Poll: Obama Seen as Victor But What About the Legislation?

Pew Fiscal Cliff Poll Fiscal Cliff Poll: Obama Seen as Victor But What About the Legislation?

Maybe President Obama looks better than GOP Speaker John Boehner and the feckless Republicans/Democrats in Congress. But, what about the law itself?

Barack Obama is viewed as the clear political winner in the fiscal cliff negotiations, but the legislation itself gets only a lukewarm reception from the public: As many disapprove as approve of the new tax legislation, and more say it will have a negative than positive impact on the federal budget deficit, the national economy and people like themselves.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Jan. 3-6 among 1,003 adults, finds that 57% say that Obama got more of what he wanted from the tax legislation while just 20% say Republican leaders got more of what they wanted. And while 48% approve of the way Obama handled the fiscal cliff negotiations only 19% approve of the way GOP leaders handled the negotiations.

Republicans take a particularly sour view of the outcome: just 16% approve of the final legislation, and by a 74% to 11% margin they think Obama got more of what he wanted. Only 40% of Republicans approve of how their party’s leaders handled the negotiations; by comparison, fully 81% of Democrats approve of how Obama handled the negotiations.

Relatively few Americans expect that the tax legislation that resulted from those talks will help people like themselves, the budget deficit, or the national economy. Just three-in-ten Americans say the tax measure will mostly help people like them; 52% say it will mostly hurt. And even when it comes to the budget deficit, 44% say the deal will mostly hurt, while 33% say it will mostly help.

President Obama does not have to run for President again and the repercussions of the Fiscal Cliff legislation as of yet realized will have no effect on him. But, should the economy fail to rally his Democratic Party will pay the price at the 2014 elections.

Stay tuned as the details of fiscal cliff, sequestration and the debt limit play through the American economy. My bet is that Obama will NOT be viewed as a political winner, when all is said and done.

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share save 120 16 Gallup Poll: American Majority Against Government Healthcare Guarantee

Gallup Poll on Government Healthcare Guarantee Gallup Poll: American Majority Against Government Healthcare Guarantee

Not a good sign with ObamaCare implementation due by 2014.

For the first time in Gallup trends since 2000, a majority of Americans say it is not the federal government’s responsibility to make sure all Americans have healthcare coverage. Prior to 2009, a majority always felt the government should ensure healthcare coverage for all, though Americans’ views have become more divided in recent years.

The shift away from the view that the government should ensure healthcare coverage for all began shortly after President Barack Obama’s election and has continued the past several years during the discussions and ultimate passage of the Affordable Care Act in March 2010. Americans are divided on that legislation today — 48% approve and 45% disapprove — as they have been over the last several years.

Republicans, including Republican-leaning independents, are mostly responsible for the drop since 2007 in Americans’ support for government ensuring universal health coverage. In 2007, 38% of Republicans thought the government should do so; now, 12% do. Among Democrats and Democratic leaners there has been a much smaller drop, from 81% saying the government should make sure all Americans are covered in 2007 to 71% now.

One thing that has not changed is that Americans still widely prefer a system based on private insurance to one run by the government. Currently, 57% prefer a private system and 36% a government-run system, essentially the same as in 2010 and 2011. Prior to the passage of the Affordable Care Act in 2010, the percentage of Americans in favor of a government-run system ranged from 32% to 41%.

I think folks see that the costs will be tremendous and the government healthcare system bureaucratic and intrusive.

America continues as a right-center country where self-reliance is more innate than not.

Redistribution is not the American way and that is reflected in this poll.

Over the next few years, the U.S. healthcare system will undergo significant changes as more parts of the Affordable Care Act go into effect. To date, the passage of the law has not led to a major transformation in U.S. healthcare attitudes, apart from the shift away from the view that the government should ensure all Americans have healthcare.

However, this year’s Health and Healthcare poll could signal the beginning of somewhat less negative views of the U.S. healthcare system. Americans have always been positive about the quality of healthcare they receive. Though they remain more negative than positive about healthcare coverage, Americans’ opinions are trending toward a more positive view of health coverage. Americans remain broadly dissatisfied with U.S. healthcare costs, and it is unclear at this point whether the healthcare reforms will significantly reduce U.S. healthcare costs once the law is fully implemented.

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share save 120 16 Gallup: U.S. Unemployment Rate Increases to 7.4 Per Cent in Mid November

Gallup Unemployment Rate2 Gallup: U.S. Unemployment Rate Increases to 7.4 Per Cent in Mid NovemberAccording to the latest Gallup Poll.

U.S. unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, is 7.4% in mid-November, up from 7.0% in October but below the 7.9% of September. Seasonally adjusted unemployment is 7.9%, up from 7.4% in October but slightly lower than September’s 8.1%.

The American economy continues in the doldrums.

Let’s hope a good Christmas retail season bolsters employment some.

But, the elephant in the closet is the impending implementation of ObamaCare and business being leery of increasing their number of employees at the same time.

Gallup’s unemployment results for the 30 days ending on Nov. 15 suggest that the improvement in the U.S. unemployment situation found in October was short-lived. Still, on an unadjusted basis, Gallup’s unemployment and underemployment measures over the past two months show what might be expected holiday seasonal improvement. U.S. companies increase hiring for the Christmas holidays at this time of year.

At the same time, superstorm Sandy distorted weekly jobless claims, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and may be doing the same to Gallup’s unemployment results. The presidential election may also have disrupted the job market for a few days in early November.

Taking seasonal factors into account, it appears that the unemployment rate has remained around 8.0% since May. This seems consistent with other general economic data showing the economy growing slowly, the most recent of these being the 0.3% decline in October retail sales.

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share save 120 16 President 2012: The Final Electoral College Map

final 2012 presidential map President 2012: The Final Electoral College Map

Map courtesy of 270towin.com

The Romney campaign this afternoon conceded the last state (Florida) in play from Tuesday’s Presidential election.

In total, only two states from the McCain Vs. Obama race flipped red from blue in the Electoral College – Indiana and North Carolina.

President Obama won the election with a total of 332 ECV to Mitt Romney’s 206 ECV.

This is certainly different from my final map which narrowly had Romney beating the President. I was surprised and believe the Romney Campaign was surprised as well.

Poll assumptions, averages and calculations, most notably by Nate Silver at the New York Times 538 blog had the results more accurately predicted. Larry Sabato over at the University of Virginia also had some successful prognostications.

Look at Nate Silver’s Tipping Point Analysis graph – it lays out the work for the GOP in 2016.

Nate Silver Presidential tipping point President 2012: The Final Electoral College Map

The same key battleground states in the 2012 race may very well be in play. Of course, Hillary Clinton or New York Governor Cuomo will be the Democratic candidate and the Republicans will also choose another.

In order to flip more states red in the Electoral College and win the election, the Republicans must win more votes in Florida, Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Iowa, and perhaps Wisconsin.

There may be two approaches as noted by Silver and I concur.

The Republican Party will have four years to adapt to the new reality. Republican gains among Hispanic voters could push Colorado and Nevada back toward the tipping point, for example.

States like Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Iowa are overwhelmingly white – but also highly educated, with fairly progressive views on social policy. If Republicans moderated their tone on social issues, they might be more competitive in these states, while regaining ground in Northern Virginia and in the Philadelphia suburbs.

The Republican Party has a few months to adapt and adopt new messaging to prepare for the 2014 mid-term elections.

The data is there and now it is up to the GOP to make the necessary changes.

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share save 120 16 President 2012 Polling: The Best National Pollsters

natlpolls vs outcome President 2012 Polling: The Best National Pollsters

Graphic courtesy of John Sides at The Monkey Cage

As you know, I am really into polling since it gives us a scientific method to measure what is happening in the political world.

So, let’s take a look at who did the best.

This list and the graphic above is for the NATIONAL Presidential polls for 2012.

1. PPP (D)
1. Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP
3. YouGov
4. Ipsos/Reuters
5. Purple Strategies
6. NBC/WSJ
6. CBS/NYT
6. YouGov/Economist
9. UPI/CVOTER
10. IBD/TIPP
11. Angus-Reid
12. ABC/WP
13. Pew Research
13. Hartford Courant/UConn
15. CNN/ORC
15. Monmouth/SurveyUSA
15. Politico/GWU/Battleground
15. FOX News
15. Washington Times/JZ Analytics
15. Newsmax/JZ Analytics
15. American Research Group
15. Gravis Marketing
23. Democracy Corps (D)
24. Rasmussen
24. Gallup
26. NPR
27. National Journal
28. AP/GfK

As everyone, particularly on the right, started criticizing polling models, it drew attention to sampling and methodology. This is a good thing.

Often campaigns use a recently release poll (even if an outlier) to spin a meme of momentum for their candidate or a lack therof for their opponent.

Polling averages like Nate Silver’s and Real Clear Politics help aggregate the myriad of national and state oriented polls. I have found it best to look at the averages and it smooths out the results.

The pollsters WERE pretty accurate – some better than others.

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