A bare majority. Actually, there are only 39 seats listed in the “lean Democratic” and “Democratic toss-up” columns, but as Taegan Goddard points out, if you toss in Bart Gordon’s retirement today in a very winnable GOP district you’re down to the magic number. But never mind that. Follow the first link to Cook and skim the column of “likely Democratic” seats, which are considered safe-ish, to see how many come from districts with a Republican-leaning PVI. If you see multiple retirements in that column — and the NRCC thinks you very well might — then suddenly a bunch of seats are in play on top of the 40 that are already shaky

After a few phone calls and secret mole conversations, I’ve learned that Tom Campbell has been fielding calls from high ranking Republican Party members, each expressing their views that Campbell should exit the heated gubernatorial and enter the primary against Assemblyman Chuck Devore and former HP CEO Carly Fiorina.

Another source convinced me that Campbell is seriously considering the switch to the Republican primary to face incumbent Senator Barbara Boxer.

The story goes this way, Campbell has been fielding calls from wealthy, heavily funded GOP contributors who are said to be “unconvinced” of Carly Fiorina’s abilities, and are best described as party ‘centrists’ who have more leanings toward a ‘Campbell-like candidate’ versus the staunch conservative moniker-ed Devore.

Reports state that these GOP “funders” have already committed to a gubernatorial canidate, and they are looking for someone to attack their funds to in the US Senate race.
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Doubtful….but maybe Controller

Former South Bay Rep. Tom Campbell, asked about buzz that he's being urged to rethink his 2010 GOP gubernatorial run — and enter the U.S. Senate race — was unusually tightlipped Monday.

"I'm in the governor's race and I've got nothing else to comment on,'' he told the Chronicle. Asked about the accuracy of reports that he has been contacted regarding jumping into the GOP Senate race aimed at unseating Democratic incumbent Barbara Boxer, Campbell declined comment. "What I said is just it,'' he said.

We reached Campbell following the rumors this week that popped up in Chris Cilizza's blog, The Fix, in the Washington Post Monday:
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Tom Campbell is a candidate looking for a government position for which to run. Campbell will NOT be the next Governor nor Senator – maybe California Controller though —-> for the past business school Dean.

Remember he cannot transfer the money he has raised so far for Governor to a Senate race.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee is not officially taking sides in the California Senate primary, but that hasn't stopped it from forming a joint fundraising committee with Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett-Packard, one of two candidates vying to take on Sen. Barbara Boxer (D).

The NRSC and the Fiorina campaign joined forces to form the Fiorina Victory Committee, according to paperwork filed with the Federal Election Commission on Dec. 4. The committee allows the party and Fiorina to split funds raised via joint events or appeals.

President Obama and Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. won't be on the midterm ballot next year, but their former Senate seats will be, and both races are now either tossups or leaning Republican in high-visibility contests.

Mr. Obama, who was a freshman senator from Illinois when he was elected president, and Mr. Biden, who was in his sixth term as a senator from Delaware, come from states that have been running strongly Democratic in past elections. No one doubts that Mr. Obama would have been a re-election shoo-in had he remained in the Senate and that Mr. Biden had his seat for the foreseeable future.

Senate Democrats who thought they had found a workable compromise on health care reform learned otherwise from independent Sen. Joe Lieberman over the weekend.

The Connecticut senator, whose vote is critical to the bill's prospects, threatened Sunday to join Republicans in opposing health care legislation if it permits uninsured individuals as young to 55 to purchase Medicare coverage.

Lieberman expressed his opposition twice Sunday: first in an interview with CBS, and more strongly later, according to Democratic officials, in a private meeting with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.

Reid, who is hoping to pass the legislation by Christmas, needs 60 votes to overcome Republican objections and has been counting on Lieberman to provide one.

What do you do when you're the odd man out in California's battle of the multi-millionaires running for governor? You consider a more winnable fight.

The Fix reports that Tom Campbell (R) is "weighing a possible switch from the governor's race to a Senate bid, according to sources familiar with his thinking. Campbell consultant James Fifsis confirmed to the Fix that several Republican officials have approached the former congressman about making the switch but that no final decision had been made. Campbell has long been the odd man out in the governor's race — outshined by Whitman and Poizner. If Campbell makes the move, it will mark his third race for Senate in the last two decades."

State Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner will contribute $15 million of his personal fortune to his GOP campaign for governor this month as he battles another Silicon Valley multimillionaire for the nomination, his campaign spokesman said Sunday.

Spokesman Jarrod Agen told The Associated Press that the donation will be transferred by the end of December, bringing Poizner's personal contributions to more than $19 million. That's about the same amount his rival and front-runner, former eBay chief executive Meg Whitman, has given her campaign to date.

Whitman, a political novice, has so far dominated in fundraising and polls against Poizner and the other Republican seeking the party's nomination, former Congressman Tom Campbell.

Poizner said in a statement Sunday that he intends to communicate to voters his proposal to slash taxes and spending and create a $10 billion rainy day fund….
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Dang, that is a hunk of change.

Let the television wars begin between Meg Whitman & Poizner

Confidential intelligence documents obtained by The Times show that Iran is working on testing a key final component of a nuclear bomb.

The notes, from Iran’s most sensitive military nuclear project, describe a four-year plan to test a neutron initiator, the component of a nuclear bomb that triggers an explosion. Foreign intelligence agencies date them to early 2007, four years after Iran was thought to have suspended its weapons programme.

An Asian intelligence source last week confirmed to The Times that his country also believed that weapons work was being carried out as recently as 2007 — specifically, work on a neutron initiator.

With relatively little cash to finance his long-shot bid for the U.S. Senate next year, it's safe to say state Assemblyman Chuck DeVore, R-Irvine, needs every cent he can get.

But after a Minnesota man complained that DeVore had successfully solicited money from his mother-in-law, who suffers from dementia, the candidate quickly returned the money.

"Ethical fundraising is a tremendous concern of ours," said Joshua Treviño, DeVore's communications director.

The story began with an e-mail last week to the Mercury News from one Jim Gelbmann of Woodbury, Minn. He complained that DeVore — who's battling former HP mogul Carly Fiorina in the GOP primary for the chance to take on incumbent Barbara Boxer, D-Calif. — was one of dozens of solicitors to whom his 87-year-old mother-in-law had sent money over the preceding few months.
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Direct mail indeed and DeVore raised a whole $16.00. Not ready for prime time?

There are a couple reasons worth mentioning why I think you haven't seen much of what some people are calling for. First, the Democrats are desperate to talk about anything other than the problems with their bills, so obvious Republican shenanigans would be a godsend for them. Dick Durbin loves nothing more than going to the floor to complain about process and obstructionism. Democrats would much rather talk about how awful Republicans are than the merits of their legislation.

The other reason is, I'd argue, that I think our strategy is having an effect. Since these bills debuted, Republicans have spoken almost nonstop about how the bills cut Medicare, raise taxes, increase premiums, and increase the debt
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Obstructionism not yet since the GOP is making headway. Erickson at Red State is premature.

Two key senators criticized the most recent healthcare compromise Sunday, saying the policies replacing the public option are still unacceptable.

Sens. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) and Ben Nelson (D-Neb.) both said a Medicare "buy-in" option for those aged 55-64 was a deal breaker.