President 2012 Florida GOP Poll Watch: Romney 18% Huckabee 18% Gingrich 18% Palin 15% Bachmann 7%

Mitt Romney – 18%
Mike Huckabee – 18%
Newt Gingrich – 18%
Sarah Palin – 15%
Michele Bachmann – 7%
Ron Paul – 6%
Tim Pawlenty – 6%
Haley Barbour – 3%

But, Romney was thought of as the front runner in Florida since he won 31% of the vote in 2008 vs. only 13% for Mike Huckabee. So, Romney has fallen and Huckabee has increased some.

The reason Romney isn’t really proving to be the favorite in Florida is a lack of support from voters describing themselves as ‘very conservative,’ who at 40% constitute the largest share of the primary electorate in the state. Romney’s favorability with them is only 59%, placing him well behind Huckabee’s 81%, Gingrich’s 73%, Palin’s 71%, and even Ron Paul’s 60%. Only 12% of those voters say he’s their choice for the nomination, putting him firmly in fourth place.

Then, there are some other scenarios, should Huckabee and/or Palin not run. And, even with Rudy Giuliani in the field.

Testing a scenario in which Huckabee chose not to run, Gingrich leads Romney 24-23 with Palin at 19%. Testing a scenario in which Palin chose not to run, Huckabee leads with 24% to 22% for both Romney and Gingrich. In a scenario where both Huckabee and Palin sat the race out, Gingrich leads with 30% to 28% for Romney, 11% for Bachmann, and 10% for Pawlenty. Throwing Rudy Giuliani in the mix as a potential candidate you get basically a four way tie at the top with Huckabee, Gingrich, and Romney at 17%, Giuliani at 16%, and Palin at 11%.

So, what does this all mean?

Florida is up for grabs – no front runner.