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President 2012: Mitch Daniels to Kick Off Presidential Run?
Indiana GOP Governor Mitch Daniels
Perhaps or is it just another policy speech?Mitch Daniels has been mostly tethered to Indianapolis during a contentious legislative session, but he’s planning a trip to Washington next month to deliver what’s sure to be a high-profile speech on education.
The Indiana governor will address the American Enterprise Institute on May 4, POLITICO has learned, discussing what has been the centerpiece of his agenda this year.
Thousands of opponents and supporters have descended on the Indiana state capitol in recent months to weigh in on Daniels’ push to offer school vouchers, expand charter schools, overhaul teacher tenure and weaken the collective bargaining rights of teachers.
The Hoosier has been mum about whether he intends to run for president, but has indicated he’ll make up his mind after his legislative session, now slated for April 29th. Should legislators meet their deadline, Daniels’ AEI speech could amount to his unofficial campaign debut. At the very least, it’ll be watched closely for clues as to whether he’s inclined to run.
If Mitch Daniles is going to run, there will be a some sort of bat signal to the blogosphere – so stay tuned.
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President 2012 Poll Watch: President Obama as a Strong Leader = Not So Much
According to the latest Gallup Poll.Americans have grown increasingly less likely to view President Obama as a strong and decisive leader since he took office. Roughly half now believe this aptly describes, him compared with 60% a year ago and 73% in April 2009.
And, only 36% say Obama has a clear plan for solving America’s problems.
So, what does this mean?
Throughout this year in office, President Obama’s ratings on several dimensions, including job approval and most personal characteristics, trended downward, but have since more or less stabilized. One notable exception to that general pattern is perception of the president as a strong and decisive leader, which has continued to drop, and now only a slim majority of Americans rate him positively in this regard.
Given the timing of the two most recent ratings on Obama as a strong and decisive leader (March 2010 and 2011), it is not clear how much the recent events in the Middle East have contributed to this perception. Obama’s overall job approval rating in Gallup Daily tracking has fluctuated since mid-March, roughly coinciding with the military campaign in Libya. For the week of March 21-27, though, Obama averaged 45% approval and 47% disapproval, his worst since December.
Moreover, Obama’s ratings for handling the situations in Libya and Egypt have not been stellar but also not poor. In any case, much of the 2011 news coverage has focused on major international events and President Obama’s response to these events has been a key element of that coverage.
Politically, it means the President is vulnerable – if the Republicans can get their act together and nominate a strong leader = hello Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels or New Jersey Governor Chris Christie.
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President 2012 Michigan GOP Poll Watch: Romney 26% Huckabee 20% Gingrich 15% Palin 12%
According to the latest PPP Poll:
- 26% Romney
- 20% Huckabee
- 15% Gingrich
- 12% Palin
- 7% Paul
- 5% Daniels
- 3% Pawlenty
- 3% Walker
But, Romney is not polling as well as iin 2008 – in a state where his father, George Romney was once Governor and where Mitt was raised.
On the surface Romney’s lead is good news for him. But in 2008 he took 39% in the primary in the state while Huckabee got only 16%. So compared to then Romney is down by 13 points while Huckabee’s improved by four. That sort of trend in Romney’s numbers compared to the support he got in his first bid is becoming common place in our polls.
Romney’s weakness continues to be with voters who describe themsevlves as ‘very conservative.’ With moderates he gets a strong 39% and with ‘somewhat conservative’ voters he’s at a respectable 28%. But with ‘very conservative’ folks he just ties Huckabee at 20%. More over his favorability with them is only 63% compared to 83% for Palin, 71% for Huckabee, and even 65% for Gingrich. Romney’s weak standing with the far right is his greatest hurdle to potentially winning the nomination.
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Herman Cain, Mike Huckabee, Mitch Daniels, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Polling, President 2012, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty
President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Mike Huckabee Continues to Lead in Positive Intensity Tracking
According to the latest Gallup Poll.Mike Huckabee continues to generate the strongest favorable reactions from Republicans who recognize him, with a Positive Intensity Score of 26. Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann follow, with Positive Intensity Scores of 20. Newt Gingrich and Herman Cain are at 19, and Sarah Palin is at 18.
Isn’t it interesting the two relative new candidates in Michele Bachmann and Herman Cain are polling so well? Also, Mitch Daniels scores rose. Seems Republicans like the prospect of a new group of candidates.
Although Tim Pawlenty announced the formation of a presidential exploratory committee last week, there was no change in his positioning in Gallup’s March 14-27 polling compared with the previous two-week rolling average.
Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels’ and Romney’s Positive Intensity Scores each rose by five points from two weeks ago — Daniels’ from 10 to 15, and Romney’s from 15 to 20. This week’s update puts Romney in a tie for second place behind Huckabee for the first time.
This marks the first report on Republicans’ views of Herman Cain, a former restaurant association executive from Georgia, who has formed a presidential exploratory committee. Cain is not well known among Republicans — 21% recognize his name — but generates enthusiasm among those who do know him, giving him an overall Positive Intensity Score of 19.
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Michele Bachmann, Mike Huckabee, Mitch Daniels, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Polling, President 2012, Sarah Palin
President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Mike Huckabee Has a Slight Edge.. But..
According to the latest Gallup poll.Mike Huckabee tops a large list of potential GOP presidential candidates in current support for the party’s 2012 nomination, with 19% of Republicans saying they are most likely to back him. This gives Huckabee a slight edge over Mitt Romney (15%). Sarah Palin is now at 12% after receiving 16% support in three prior Gallup polls. Newt Gingrich is the only other potential candidate who registers double-digit support. Sixteen percent of Republicans currently have no preference.
The March 18-22 poll of more than 1,000 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents was conducted as the field of candidates has yet to emerge. Since Gallup’s February measurement of nomination preferences, Gingrich and Tim Pawlenty have taken formal steps toward announcing their candidacies but have stopped short of doing so, and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann is reportedly going to follow suit by the summer.
There continues to be speculation about the leading candidates’ plans. Most political experts believe Romney will eventually enter the race, but questions remain about whether Huckabee and Palin will want to abandon their lucrative media careers to pursue the presidency.
But, if Huckabee decides not run – very likely in my opinion, then it is between Romney and Palin.
And, if Huckabee runs and Sarah Palin does not, then, Huck becomes the front-runner:
So, what does all of this mean?There continues to be no front-runner for the GOP Presidential nomination and various scenarios will play out should either Mike Huckabee or Sarah Palin decide to run or not.
I think the fact that Michele Bachman is gearing up for a possible run and that Dick Armey of the Tea Party organization, FreedomWorks, has said he could endorse Mitch Daniels may give an indication that there may soon be a different set of scenarios and candidates.
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President 2012 Ohio Poll Watch: Obama 46% Vs. Romney 40% – Obama 52% Vs. Palin 36%
According to the latest PPP Poll.
Obama Job approval:- 47% Approve, 46% Disapprove
Favorable Vs. Unfavorable
- Mitt Romney – 33% Vs. 43% (-10)
- Sarah Palin – 31% Vs. 59% (-28)
- Mick Huckabee – 36% Vs. 42% (-6)
- Newt Gingrich – 24% Vs. 56% (-32)
Head to Head with the President:
- Obama 50% Vs. Gingrich 38%
- Obama 48% Vs. Huckabee 41%
- Obama 52% Vs. Palin 36%
- Obama 46% Vs. Romney 40%
In the key battleground state of Ohio, President Obama is either leading his GOP opponent by 6 or 16 points. It is becoming clear in poll after poll that if the GOP wants to field a competitive candidate then they better look beyond these four.
I would recommend either Mitch Daniels or Chris Christie and they better gear up quickly.
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President 2012 Video: Is Mitch Daniels Being Unfairly Attacked from the Right?
Probably, but listen to the give and take btwween Conor Friedersdorf and Conn Carroll.
What GOP voters will have to decide (should Daniels decide to run, and I am not all that sure that he will) is whether they want an accomplished conservative POL or an ideologue who has no chance of beating President Obama as their nominee?
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President 2012 Poll Watch: Voters Tepid on Obama But Favor Him Over GOP Field
According to the latest PPP Poll.
Barack Obama’s looking somewhat weak in our national polling. The good news for him is that his prospective Republican opponents look even weaker, and that’s allowing him to maintain healthy leads in head to head match ups against each of them looking toward next year.
Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:
- Obama – 47% Vs. 47%
- Huckabee – 35% Vs. 42%
- Romney – 32% Vs. 44%
- Palin – 35% Vs. 57%
- Gingrich – 26% Vs. 57%
Head to Head:
- Obama – 48% Vs. Huckabee – 43%
- Obama – 47% vs. Romney – 42%
- Obama – 50% Vs. Gingrich – 39%
- Obama – 53% Vs. Palin – 38%
- Obama – 47% Vs. Pawlenty – 33%
With Romney and Huckabee (do NO harm candidates) the GOP could possibly do better than McCain-Palin in 2008 but would likely lose. Gingrich, Palin and Pawlenty are really non-starters.
So, the GOP has a choice – develop new candidates like Chris Christie and Mitch Daniels or concentrate on winning the Senate and maintaining their majority in the House.
The entire poll is here (PDF). -
IN-Sen Video: Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels Supports Sen Richard Lugar for Re-Election But…..
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Why, of course, you would expect Mitch Daniels to endorse Indiana U.S. Senator Richard Lugar (towards the end of the video above). Mitch Daniels is a political protege of Lugar.
Daniels had his first experience in politics while still a teenager when, in 1968, he worked on the unsuccessful campaign of fellow Hoosier and Princeton alum William Ruckelshaus, who was running for the U.S. Senate.[8] After the campaign Ruckelshaus helped Daniels secure an internship in the office of then-Indianapolis Mayor Richard Lugar. In 1971, Daniels worked on Lugar’s re-election campaign and then joined his mayoral staff. Within three years, he became Lugar’s principal assistant. After Lugar was elected to the U.S. Senate in 1976, Daniels followed him to Washington, D.C. as his Chief of Staff.[15]
Daniels served as Chief of Staff during Lugar’s first term (1977–82); and, during this time, he met Cheri Herman, who was working for the National Park Service. The two married in 1978 and had four daughters; they divorced in 1993 and Cheri married a second husband. Cheri soon divorced her second husband and remarried Daniels in 1997.[6]
In 1983, when Lugar was elected Chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, Daniels was appointed its Executive Director. Serving in that position (1983–84), he played a major role in keeping the GOP in control of the Senate. Daniels was also manager of three successful re-election campaigns for Lugar. In August 1985, Daniels became chief political advisor and liaison to President Ronald Reagan.[15]
Daniels even met his wife as a result of his service with Lugar. But, note what Daniels specifically said under the radar:
Daniels said that he never intervenes in primary elections, admires Lugar, hedged on whether he would appear with Lugar (i.e. campaign with him) and implied that perhaps Lugar deserves another term – “if he wants it.”
Sounds to me that in a subtle way, Mitch Daniels is telling his old mentor that it is time to retire and NOT want to run for re-election.
But, make no mistake about it, Mitch Daniels WILL do ads for Senator Lugar if he runs for re-election.
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President 2012 Video: Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels Responds to Social Issues “Truce” and Defense Cuts Critics
An interview of Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels by Peter Robinson of Uncommon Knowledge of the Hoover IstitutionThe entire interview will air next Monday and we have heard Daniel’s before explain his rationale.
“If you don’t believe that the American republic is mortally threatened, as I do, by this one overriding problem we have built for ourselves [the debt], then of course I’m wrong.
But if that is the case, then all I was really saying was: I don’t want to lose one person — you keep talking about how hard it’s going to be, and it is — to make the kind of changes that will restore America’s greatness, and all I was saying was [that] we’re going to need to unify all kinds of people, and freedom is going to need every friend it can get.”
But, it appears that Mitch is going on the offense now and there really is only one reason to do so.
Read the tea leaves.