• Haley Barbour,  Mitch Daniels,  President 2012

    President 2012: Haley Barbour is OUT – Is Mitch Daniels IN?

    Governor Haley and Marsha Barbour – Governor Mitch and Cheri Daniels

    Republican Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour has withdrawn from an exploratory campaign for the Presidency. His statement is here.

    “I will not be a candidate for president next year. This has been a difficult, personal decision, and I am very grateful to my family for their total support of my going forward, had that been what I decided.

    “Hundreds of people have encouraged me to run and offered both to give and raise money for a presidential campaign.  Many volunteers have organized events in support of my pursuing the race.  Some have dedicated virtually full time to setting up preliminary organizations in critical, early states and to helping plan what has been several months of intensive activity.

    “I greatly appreciate each and every one of them and all their outstanding efforts.  If I have disappointed any of them in this decision, I sincerely regret it.

    “A candidate for president today is embracing a ten-year commitment to an all-consuming effort, to the virtual exclusion of all else.  His (or her) supporters expect and deserve no less than absolute fire in the belly from their candidate.  I cannot offer that with certainty, and total certainty is required.

    “This decision means I will continue my job as Governor of Mississippi, my role in the Republican Governors Association and my efforts to elect a new Republican president in 2012, as the stakes for the nation require that effort to be successful.”

    Haley Barbour has not been polling particularly well and as a Republican operative of the highest order can read the handwriting on the wall. But, now does this open the path for Barbour’s good personal friend Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels to run?

    Daniels has kept his decision close to the vest and will not announce one way or another until the Indiana Legislative session is over. The session ends this Friday. And, as Daniels has said, “It’s time to cut bait.”

    So, is this a convenient withdrawal?

    Stay tuned…..

  • Donald Trump,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Huckabee 16% Trump 16% Romney 13% Palin 10%



    According to the latest Gallup Poll.

    Donald Trump debuts in a first-place tie in Gallup’s latest update of Republicans’ preferences for the party’s 2012 presidential nomination among potential contenders. Trump ties Mike Huckabee at 16%, with Mitt Romney close behind at 13%. Sarah Palin is the only other potential Republican candidate to earn double-digit support.

    Again, another national poll that does not reflect the reality of early state GOP caucuses and primary elections.

    But, the fact that Donald Trump is polling better than Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty cannot give each of these declared candidates much pleasure.

    With Ed Rollins, Mike Huckabee’s former 2008 Presidential campaign manager leaking that he thought Huck would make the run, folks looking at these polls will have to consider his numerous first place finishes as being significant. If and when Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin drop out of potential candidacies then the heads up battle between Huckabee and Romney will be the race – unless Mitch Daniels enters the race as the Fred Thompson of 2012.

    So, what does this all mean?

    Trump’s strong showing in Republican nomination preferences is partly a function of his high profile. Currently, the top vote-getters are generally the best-known Republicans. Lesser-known potential candidates such as Tim Pawlenty, Mitch Daniels, and Rick Santorum have more limited support on the nomination ballot at this point.

    That is a typical pattern in early nomination preference polls. Once campaigning gets underway in earnest later this year, and after the initial primaries and caucuses next year, some of the currently lesser-known candidates may emerge as stronger candidates, and some of the better-known candidates may fade.

    In fact, the leaders in early nomination polls for the last two presidential election cycles — Joe Lieberman in 2003 and Hillary Clinton in 2007 on the Democratic side and Rudy Giuliani in 2007 on the Republican side — did not eventually win their party’s nomination, with Lieberman and Giuliani having poor showings in the early primaries.

    Giuliani’s performance aside, the early leader in GOP primaries has usually gone on to win the nomination. The lack of a clear front-runner in this year’s field is a distinct departure from prior Republican contests. That situation could still change in the current campaign, since Romney is the only one of the four leading contenders who has taken any formal steps toward running for president.

  • Barack Obama,  Jeb Bush,  Mitch Daniels

    President 2012 Florida Poll Watch Angst: Jeb Bush 57% Vs. Barack Obama 38%

    President Obama shakes hands with former Florida Governor Jeb Bush

    According to the latest Viewpoint Florida Poll.

    If the 2012 Presidential election were held today, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush would defeat President Barack Obama in the Sunshine State by nearly 20 points.

    Governor Bush’s 57%-38% lead over Obama can be attributed to several interesting figures found in the crosstabs of our statewide survey of likely voters in Florida. For example, Bush enjoys a 66%-31% lead over President Obama among male voters, but only leads Obama 50%-44% among women.

    Governor Bush leads President Obama among all age groups except voters aged 18-34, where Obama hangs on to a slim 48%-45% lead. Bush holds a 56%-40% lead with voters over 65, and crushes Obama 66%-32% with voters between 35 and 49 years old.

    26% of Democrats stated they would vote for the younger brother of former President George W. Bush over Barack Obama if the Presidential election were held today. Bush has almost unanimous support from his base with 89% of Republicans supporting him, while Obama gets just 71% support from members of his own party. Governor Bush also leads President Obama 46%-40% among independent voters.

    Finally, our regional crosstabs show Governor Bush dominating the President in Jacksonville and Florida’s Panhandle. 71% of respondents in that region preferred Governor Bush, to just 27% who said they would pull the lever for President Obama. Bush earns 60% support in Orlando and the Space Coast, beating Obama in that swing region by 27 points. Bush even bests Obama in South Florida, where he holds a narrow 48%-46% lead.

    Except Jeb is not running…..

    But, can Bush help a candidate, perhaps like Mitch Daniels?

  • Mitch Daniels,  President 2012

    President 2012 Video: My Man Mitch on the Campaign Trail?

    Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels on CNBC’s The Wall Street Journal Report; 4/18/2011

    Perhaps. Mitch Daniels says he will announce one way or another after the Indiana Legislative session.

    He would be a welcome addition to the lackluster field of GOP Presidential candidates but I would bet the likelihood of Daniels running at about 50-50.

    However, he would make a great running mate for either Mitt Romney or Mike Huckabee.

  • Barack Obama,  Chris Christie,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Rand Paul,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 Poll Watch: Barack Obama 48% Vs. Mike Huckabee 43%, Barack Obama 47% Vs. Mitt Romney 41%


    Chart from Pollster

    According to the latest PPP Poll.

    Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:

    • President Barack Obama – 47% Vs. 48%

    GOP Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

    • Mike Huckabee – 36% Vs. 42%
    • Mitt Romney – 32% Vs. 43%
    • Sarah Palin – 31% Vs. 61%
    • Newt Gingrich – 28% vs. 55%
    • Rand Paul – 26% Vs. 45%
    • Chris Christie – 28% Vs. 30%

    General Election Head to Head:

    • Obama – 48% Vs. Huckabee – 43%
    • Obama – 47% Vs. Romney 41%
    • Obama – 54% Vs. Palin – 36%
    • Obama – 52% Vs. Gingrich – 38%
    • Obama – 48% Vs. Paul – 38%
    • Obama – 48% Vs Christie – 39%

    Again, this is an aggregate national poll but it shows a couple of things:

    • Obama has a negative approval rating
    • This GOP candidate field is weak against the President in the general election.

    Additionally, President Obama is doing well with independent voters.

    The president wins by racking up the independent vote by double-digit margins against everyone but Christie, who holds him to a seven-point advantage. The others trail with this group by ten (Huckabee and Romney) to a whopping 28 points (Palin). Obama also pads his leads by getting double-digit GOP support against Gingrich and Palin.

    If the GOP wants to beat Obama in 2012, they had better develop a better candidate field, consolidate behind him or her and be ready to hit the ground running after Labor Day 2011. The delay in the GOP selection process may allow say a Rep. Paul Ryan or Governor Mitch Daniels to jump into the field and become the fresh face of the GOP.

    The GOP needs such a candidate, if they wish to win next year.

  • Mitch Daniels,  President 2012

    President 2012: Sounds Like Mitch Daniels is a Presidential Candidate?

    Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels

    Sounds like it.

    Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels is appearing somewhat so-so about mounting a presidential bid, telling the Indianapolis Star the process is “savage” and suggesting it’s likely he’ll end up supporting another Republican White House hopeful.

    “I like all those folks,” said Daniels of the likely GOP presidential field in comments published Wednesday. “Odds are I’ll wind up supporting one of ’em, so I’ve got nothing but good things to say about them.”

    “I always thought if I had a contribution to make beyond being governor it might be to offer some thoughts like these and support somebody else who might do it. It might still work out that way,” the Indiana Republican added.

    Daniels, the former budget director under President Bush who – to the chagrin of some in his party – has long advocated the importance of fiscal concerns over social issues, also reiterated that he’ll make his final decision soon after his state’s legislative season ends at the end of this month.

    But, don’t take my word for it. Here is the take from an Indiana political observer.

    Wearing a green jacket that made him look like he’d just won the Masters, Gov. Mitch Daniels on Tuesday talked about the “savage process” politicians go through when running for president, and about the “certainty of hurtful things” occurring to the families of those seeking the job.

    But it’s clear he is deeply interested in launching a campaign.

    Daniels eagerly fielded questions about the idea of running for president during a meeting with The Indianapolis Star’s Editorial Board on Tuesday afternoon. His answers made clear what we already knew — that he is giving the question deep thought — and underscored how intently he has worked through the issues that would face him and the messages on which he would base a campaign.

    Much of his message would center on his concern about what he calls the “red menace” of federal debt, which has been the focus of many of his national speeches and writings.

    If he runs, he said, “it would simply be because I do think, and I hope I am wrong, that the country has put itself in a very difficult place.”

    There is incentive to tackle the problem now, he said, before the problem is too dire. He warned that if the nation delays Medicare and Social Security reforms, the goal he and many others share of not reducing benefits for those approaching retirement age may prove to be out of reach.

    “We’re starting to run out of time,” he said.

    And, what would a Daniel’s campaign look like?

    Gov. Mitch Daniels’ campaign for president would be a crusade against federal debt and for major entitlement reform — if, that is, he runs.

    Daniels detailed for The Indianapolis Star Editorial Board on Tuesday a presidential campaign that would take on some of the biggest issues the nation has faced. But he insisted he hasn’t yet made up his mind that he’s the right candidate to lead that fight.

    Time, though, is running out.

    Time is running short but the GOP Presidential nomination process has been delayed – much to the consternation of the Obama re-election campaign. But, Daniels, who was President Ronald Reagan’s political director understands that the Presidental race is really one that focuses on just a few key battleground states.

    He does, though, see Obama as potentially vulnerable.

    “My best guess is he’s not a lock for re-election,” Daniels said. “People have pointed out there’s a number of states like this one that he won last time that he is very unlikely to win the next time. . . . If you peel away Indiana and North Carolina and Virginia and some say Florida, suddenly there’s not a whole lot of margin for error left.”

    Still, he added, it isn’t the polls that show Obama vulnerable or show the other candidates weak that is entering into his election analysis. Polls right now are meaningless, he said.

    The Presidential polls are not meaningless in one respect, however. There is NO GOP front-running candidate and the race is wide-open as a result.

    A race that Mitch Daniels may soon enter.

  • Mike Huckabee,  Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012 Poll Watch: Mike Huckabee 43% Vs. Barack Obama 43%

    According to the latest Rasmussen Poll.

    Job Approval Vs. Disapproval

    President Barack Obama – 46% Vs. 54%

    Head to Head:

    • Huckabee – 43% Vs. Obama – 43%
    • Obama – 45% Vs. Romney – 40%
    • Obama – 48% Vs. Palin – 38%
    • Obama – 49% Vs. Gingrich – 37%
    • Obama – 45% Vs. Pawlenty – 35%
    • Obama – 45% Vs. Daniels 32%

    For a non-candidate candidate, Mike Huckabee continues to poll well against President Obama. The ONLY announced candidate Tim Pawlenty is behind by 10 points and Mitt Romney who has announced a Presidential Exploratory Committee is behind by 5.

    But, it is still very early although President Obama looks, at least now, vulnerable.

  • Mike Huckabee,  Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Mike Huckabee is Strongest as President Obama Announces

    According to the latest Gallup Poll.

    With President Obama officially announcing his candidacy for re-election on Monday, the question of whom he will run against becomes even more relevant. Three possible Republican candidates — Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and Newt Gingrich — are currently best situated among Republicans nationwide in terms of name recognition and Gallup Positive Intensity Scores. Sarah Palin and Ron Paul are also well known, but generate lower net enthusiasm from those who know them. Of the less well-known potential GOP candidates, Herman Cain, Michele Bachmann, and Tim Pawlenty have the highest Positive Intensity Scores.

    Here is the positive intensity score chart.

    And, the name recognition chart.

    So, what does all mean?

    Gallup’s ongoing tracking shows that former Arkansas Gov. and current Fox News commentator Huckabee is the GOP leader at this point, based on his high name recognition and advantage in Positive Intensity. Huckabee also leads when Gallup asks Republicans whom they would support for the nomination. It remains unclear, however, whether Huckabee will end up running for his party’s nomination.

    Gingrich and Romney are clearly in second place behind Huckabee, based on their name identification and Positive Intensity Scores. However, neither man generates levels of support from Republicans that are as high as Huckabee’s, and neither has been able to change his status much over the last month. Gingrich has been more public about his intention to run for president, while Romney has maintained a somewhat lower national profile, even while traveling extensively to early primary and caucus states.

    As is the case for Huckabee, Palin’s intentions about running for president next year are unknown. By virtue of her inclusion on the national GOP ticket in 2008 and her ongoing television exposure, she is almost universally known among Republicans nationwide. But Palin’s positioning in the minds of Republicans who do know her is weaker than that of other potential candidates: 23% of those who recognize her have a strongly favorable opinion, compared with 7% who are strongly unfavorable.

    The potential for other less well-known Republicans to increase their name recognition and become serious contenders for their party’s nomination is the interesting question going forward. The data clearly show that Bachmann and Cain have a reaction-generating edge among those who know them, which in theory puts them in a position to make an impact if they can become better known. Pawlenty, who appears to be making a serious run at the presidency, is known by about 4 out of 10 Republicans and has a Positive Intensity Score slightly below Cain’s and Bachmann’s. Other, less well-known candidates such as Mississippi Gov. Barbour, Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman, and Daniels currently do not generate high positive emotions from those who know them, something that would need to change if they are to contend for the nomination.

    The GOP Presidential race is wide-open is what these polls really say.

    Mike Huckabee should he choose to run and there has been little indication that he would, would be in the best position with Romney and Gingrich trailing – with little enthusiasm. Sarah Palin, who has been AWOL from Presidential speculation lately is behind the three.

    My guess is that a candidate who is not registering on the radar, like Mitch Daniels, Rudy Giuliani or Chris Christie may indeed join the race and the perceived vacuum of GOP candidates.

  • Mitch Daniels,  President 2012

    Updated: President 2012: Mitch Daniels to Kick Off Presidential Run?; Wife Who Shuns Political Spot Light to Deliver Speech

    Indiana GOP Governor Mitch Daniels

    Perhaps or is it just another policy speech?

    Mitch Daniels has been mostly tethered to Indianapolis during a contentious legislative session, but he’s planning a trip to Washington next month to deliver what’s sure to be a high-profile speech on education.

    The Indiana governor will address the American Enterprise Institute on May 4, POLITICO has learned, discussing what has been the centerpiece of his agenda this year.

    Thousands of opponents and supporters have descended on the Indiana state capitol in recent months to weigh in on Daniels’ push to offer school vouchers, expand charter schools, overhaul teacher tenure and weaken the collective bargaining rights of teachers.

    The Hoosier has been mum about whether he intends to run for president, but has indicated he’ll make up his mind after his legislative session, now slated for April 29th. Should legislators meet their deadline, Daniels’ AEI speech could amount to his unofficial campaign debut. At the very least, it’ll be watched closely for clues as to whether he’s inclined to run.

    If Mitch Daniles is going to run, there will be a some sort of bat signal to the blogosphere – so stay tuned.

    Update:

    Sort of a bat signal here.

    Indiana’s low-profile first lady will step out as the main speaker at a state Republican Party dinner about the same time as Gov. Mitch Daniels could say whether he’ll run for president.

    Cheri Daniels will be the keynote speaker for the May 12 fundraising dinner in Indianapolis, focusing on her role as first lady, the state Republican Party announced Monday.