According to the latest Washington Post poll.
Presidential Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:
- Barack Obama – 57% Vs. 40% (49% vs. 46%)
General Election Head to Head:
- Obama – 51% vs. Romney – 44% (48% Vs. 46%)
- Obama – 53% Vs. Huckabee – 44% (50% Vs. 46%)
- Obama – 55% Vs. Pawlenty – 35% (51% Vs. 38%)
- Obama – 61% Vs. Trump – 30% (54% Vs. 35%)
- Obama – 61% Vs. Palin – 30% (55% Vs. 36%)
Virginia is a key battleground state that the Republican nominee will need to deny President Barack Obama a second term. Undoubtedly, President Obama has received a bounce from the Osama bin Ladin operation and this is somewhat reflected in this poll.
However, the GOP will either have to nominate someone else or hope that Romney and/or Huckabee will be able to persuade Virginia voters.
Survey of 1,180 adults in Virginia was conducted April 28 – May 4, 2011; including 677 interviews before the killing of Osama bin Laden, with 503 afterward. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points. Results from interviews conducted before the announcement of bin Laden’s death are in parentheses.
Given a choice, 36% of Republicans say business and the economy are the most important political issues to them, up from 32% in March, and now on par with the percentage who say the same about government spending and power. Fewer Republicans choose either social issues and moral values or national security and foreign policy as their top political priorities.
This is really not surprising – it is the economy, stupid. The GOP nominee, whoever it may be, may very well ride to the Presidency on the back of Obama’s poor economic performance.
However, there should be a warning attached to this poll since polling occurred prior to the Osama Bin Laden killing operation.
Let’s look at the demographics of the GOP and the important issues:
Interesting that younger Republicans are more concerned about social issues than their older counterparts. I find this hard to believe so this may be an outlier in the sample.
Younger Republicans, those aged 18 to 29, are more likely than their elders to choose social/moral issues as their top priority, and less likely to choose government spending and power. This is somewhat counterintuitive. Younger Americans in previous Gallup research have been the most likely to rate the current state of moral values as excellent or good, and most likely to say moral values are getting better rather than worse.
And, who do social issue Republicans choose as their Presidential nominee?
So, what are the implications of this polling?
- Mike Huckabee has strength within the GOP and will now likely seek the Presidency.
- Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels, who has mentioned a “truce” on social issues, might very well do well emphasizing economic issues as the social issues do not appear to be a prominant concern for Republicans.
Republicans clearly have two main political concerns that now provide the prism through which they view next year’s presidential election — government spending/power and the economy. They are significantly less likely to say either social issues or national security and foreign policy are their top concerns.
Republicans who prioritize business and the economy are more likely to be moderate or liberal in their ideology than the average Republican. They do not have a strongly differentiated choice for president, spreading their support among Romney, Huckabee, and Palin, in that order.
Those who prioritize government spending and power are more likely than average to be conservative, and split their early support between Huckabee and Romney. Palin does much less well among this group, barely edging out Texas Congressman Ron Paul by one point.
More than a fourth of Republicans whose top priority is social/moral issues choose Huckabee for their party’s presidential nomination, the highest proportion of support for a candidate among any of the four issue groups. Social issue Republicans also like Palin, while giving only single-digit support to any other candidate.
The small group of Republicans whose priority focus is on national security and foreign policy split their support among Palin, Huckabee, and Romney.
Day By Day by Chris MuirThe South Carolina GOP Presidential debate last night was disappointing. None of the REAL candidates bothered to show up for this Fox News sponsored event.
I mean REALLY who can take Rick Santorum, Gary Johnson or Ron Paul seriously?
The GOP Presidential race is getting a late start and it is probably for the best. The REAL candidates will be savaged by an Obama supporitng MSM and why give them a head start prior to the summer.
So, who do I think will run?
Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich and Tim Pawlenty.
Who will be the nominee?
Mike Huckabee or Mitch Daniels.
But, we will see, since it it not clear at this time whether Huckabee or Daniels will even run.
According to the latest Quinnipiac National Poll.
By healthy margins, American voters say they would consider or be enthusiastic about backing former governors Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee for president, but 58 percent would never support Sarah Palin or Donald Trump, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
No surprise here.
Sarah Palin and Donald Trump will NOT be candidates, in any case.
The race will either be Huckabee Vs. Romney Vs. Daniels or Huckabee Vs. Romney Vs. Pawlenty. And, Jon Huntsman will be in the mix somewhere.
With Romney having a virtual lock on New Hampshire and Nevada, and him polling well in Pennsylvania and Arizona is Romney setting himslef up as the front runner?
And, what affect will this Florida polling have on a possible Mitch Daniels or even Mike Hucakbee’s candidacy?
A good day for Mitt Romney.
According to the latest PPP Poll.
Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:
- President Barack Obama – 46% Vs. 50%
Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:
- Newt Gingrich – 26% Vs. 59%
- Mike Huckabee – 35% Vs. 48%
- Sarah Palin – 32% Vs. 62%
- Mitt Romney – 45% Vs. 37%
- Donald Trump – 24% Vs. 66%
Interesting that Mitt Romney is the only GOP candidate in positive favorable territory.
General election Head to Head:
- Barack Obama – 47% Vs. Newt Gingrich – 40%
- Barack Obama – 46% Vs. Mike Huckabee – 44%
- Barack Obama – 49% Vs. Sarah Palin – 38%
- Mitt Romney – 48% Vs. Barack Obama – 44%
- Barack Obama – 48% Vs. Donald Trump – 36%
Again, only Mitt Romney leads President Obama. This is the third state in the last month, including Nevada and Pennsylvania that Romney is the ONLY Republican beating Obama.
There has been speculation that Sarah Palin may move from Alaska to Arizona. But, she would not receive a warm welcome as only 27% say they would like her to move to Arizona, whereas 57% hope she stays away. 16% don’t offer an opinion.
Again, it seems Arizona voters are unhappy with the GOP Field. Will the addition of Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels make a difference? Or is Mitt Romney good enough?
The entire poll is here.
Mitch Daniels is likely, I’m told, to announce his candidacy for the GOP presidential nomination in the next couple of weeks. Michelle Bachman will, I think, enter the race in June. And it now looks as if Mike Huckabee is also going to run.
Saturday evening, while tout Washington was “enjoying” the White House Correspondents Dinner—and while some of us, I might add, were truly enjoying the lovely wedding of Mary Katharine Ham and Jake Brewer—Mike Huckabee was speaking to the annual meeting of the National Rifle Association in Pittsburgh. It was the right place to be if you’re interested in the GOP presidential nomination. And by all accounts Huckabee gave a very effective speech, striking a populist tone while vigorously taking on Obama’s agenda across the board, linking social and economic issues, and asserting “I want you to know that I stand here tonight as a gun-clinger and as a God-clinger unapologetically.”
Mike Huckabee will enter as the front runner, especially in Iowa. Will Mitch Daniels compete there since Michelle Bachmann is a native Iowan or gear up for New Hampshire, where he will go up against Mitt Romney?
The next few weeks should get very interesting.
- Mike Huckabee – 16%
- Mitt Romney – 15%
- Sarah Palin – 10%
- Newt Gingrich – 4%
- Tim Pawlenty – 5%
- Someone Else – 26%
- Don’t Know – 11%
Another poll indicative of the fact that the GOP Presidential race is wide open. The filed will solidify in a couple of weeks and definitely by mid-June.
With the Republican field for the 2012 presidential nomination still in flux, the two major candidates who ran for president in 2008 — Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee — receive the most backing among GOP voters nationally.
Romney garners the support of 19 percent of Republicans and Huckabee 17 percent, according to a Fox News poll released Thursday. The next group of candidates is bunched together: Sarah Palin at nine percent, Donald Trump at eight percent, and Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul receive seven percent a piece.
Earlier this month, Huckabee was at 15 percent among Republican voters, Romney 14 percent, Palin 12 percent, Trump 11 percent and Gingrich 7 percent (April 3-5).
Among voters who consider themselves part of the Tea Party movement, Huckabee (19 percent) and Romney (17 percent) are still the top two choices, followed by Palin (10 percent) and Trump (10 percent). No other contenders receive double-digit support.
The GOP Primary:
- Mitt Romney – 19%
- Mike Huckabee – 17%
- Sarah Palin – 9%
- Donald Trump – 8%
- Newt Gingrich – 7%
- Ron Paul – 7%
The poll was taken Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday nights, so some interviews were conducted before and some were after the president released his birth certificate.
The Fox News poll is based on landline and cell phone interviews with 911 randomly chosen registered voters nationwide and was conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) from April 25 to April 27. For the total sample, it has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Is Mike Huckabee in or out of the Presidential race?
One of Mike Huckabee’s political confidantes in the early primary state of South Carolina spoke with the former Arkansas governor Thursday and received assurances that he is still “seriously” weighing a presidential bid.
Mike Campbell, who chaired Huckabee’s South Carolina campaign in 2008, told CNN that he called his former boss after a South Carolina blog erroneously claimed that Huckabee had decided against running again in 2012.
The report quickly shot around the web Wednesday and forced Huckabee’s team to knock down the rumor.
Campbell called the blog item “a bunch of bull” but said he decided to call Huckabee anyway.
“He said, ‘Mike, obviously that’s unfounded and completely untrue,'” Campbell said of his conversation with Huckabee. “He told me, ‘I’m just asking folks to keep their powder dry because there may be something coming in the future that may be worth keeping your powder dry for.”
Asked about his presidential intentions, the former Arkansas governor told Campbell, “I am weighing it very heavily and I am considering it as seriously as I have ever been.”
I say Huck will run and when you see Chuck Norris make an appearance, then we will know for sure. Ed Rollin’s statement a while ago was key.
Huckabee was NOT considering the race but with all of the polls showing him doing so well, he has been persuaded to go for it.