President 2012 Poll Watch: Obama Gets a Bounce – Obama – 47% Vs. Romney – 42%

Posted 1 CommentPosted in Donald Trump, Mike Huckabee, Mitch Daniels, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Polling, President 2012, Sarah Palin

According to the latest PPP Poll.

The killing of Osama bin Laden has given Barack Obama a bounce in his approval ratings. But it doesn’t appear to have boosted his chances for reelection.

PPP this month finds Obama with a 49% approval rating to 43% of voters who disapprove. That’s a seven point improvement on the margin since last month’s national survey when slightly more voters (48%) gave him poor marks for his work than good ones (47%). Obama’s greatest improvement has come with Republicans (from 8% approval to 14%). He’s up with independents (from 44% to 49%) and with Democrats (from 81% to 83%) by smaller amounts.

More voters may like Obama for the moment, but there aren’t more planning to support him next year. Last month Obama led the Huckabee/Romney/Palin/Gingrich quartet by an average of 10.75 points. This month Obama leads those same four candidate by an average of…10.75 points. There’s been no improvement in his reelect numbers whatsoever since the bin Laden death and if there hasn’t been in the week after the killing it doesn’t seem likely there will be 18 months after the killing either. What Obama’s approval bounce appears to be is an increase in the percentage of people who say they like him, but still won’t vote for him. They appreciate him taking out bin Laden but that’s not going to outweigh everything he’s done that they don’t like over the course of the last 27 months.

Approval Vs. Disapproval:

  • Mike Huckabee – 33% Vs. 41%
  • Sarah Palin – 33% Vs. 60%
  • Newt Gingrich – 29% Vs. 53%
  • Mitt Romney – 32% Vs. 41%
  • Donald Trump – 24% Vs. 65%
  • Mitch Daniels – 14% Vs. 33% Vs. 53% (not sure)

Again, voters are not amored with the Republican Presidetial candidates and the one new face, Mitch Daniels is not really known.

We also tested Mitch Daniels on this poll and he trails 48-34 but what might be most interesting is his favorability numbers with Republicans. Only 23% express a favorable opinion of him to 25% with an unfavorable one. I think a fair amount of that ‘unfavorable’ rating can be explained by voters who rate just about any politician they’ve never heard of negatively- which I think is about 10% of the population- but those are not impressive numbers by any stretch of the imagination. Beltway journalists are clearly a lot more enamored with Daniels than actual GOP voters are.

General Election Head to Head:

  • Obama – 49% Vs. Huckabee – 42%
  • Obama – 54% Vs. Palin – 37%
  • Obama – 52% Vs. Gingrich – 38%
  • Obama – 47% Vs. Romney – 42%

Again, this is a national poll and the election contest is in key battleground sates. But, it is surprising that Obama did not receive more of a bounce with the killing of Osama Bin Laden. This event will fade with time.

What the GOP nominess should hope is that their favorability improves.

The entire poll is here.

PPP surveyed 814 American voters from May 5th to 8th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.4%.  This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political 

organization.  PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.  PPP  is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times

found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

President 2012 Virginia Poll Watch: Obama 52% Vs. Huckabee 43%

Posted Posted in Donald Trump, Mike Huckabee, Mitch Daniels, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Polling, President 2012, Sarah Palin

According to the latest PPP Poll.

Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:

  • President Barack Obama – 51% vs. 44%

Democrats are united for the President.

The biggest key for him is that he has the Democratic base completely behind him- 94% approve to only 4% who disapprove. Virginia still has a lot of white conservative Democrats, particularly in certain parts of the state, so for Obama to have almost unanimous approval within his party is very impressive. He even has more Republicans (albeit a paltry 7%) who approve of him than there are Democrats (4%) who disapprove. That’s not something we’re seeing in our polling very often right now. Independents narrowly give him good marks, 48/46, as well.

Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

  • Mike Huckabee – 37% Vs. 42%
  • Mitt Romney – 35% Vs. 43%
  • Newt Gingrich – 26% Vs. 54%
  • Sarah Palin – 31% Vs. 62%
  • Donald Trump – 22% vs. 69%

General Election Head to Head:

  • Obama – 52% Vs Huckabee – 43%
  • Obama – 51% Vs. Romney – 40%
  • Obama – 54% Vs. Gingrich – 37%
  • Obama – 55% Vs. Palin – 40%
  • Obama – 54% Vs. Trump – 32%

Virginia is a key battleground sate that the GOP needs to flip in 2012. Compare the results of the most recent Washington Post poll of Virginia.

Similar, no?

In Virginia, the GOP Presidential candidate field is not very popular and well received. If the Republicans want to take back Virginia’s Electoral College votes, they will need to run candidates other than the current field. Calling on Mitch Daniels and/or Chris Christie.

Even if Obama was unpopular in Virginia he’d still be in a decent position to win the state again because the GOP contenders are so weak there. Take those unpopular Republicans and combine them with a decently popular Obama and you have a very difficult battle for the GOP to get Virginia back. And it’s hard to imagine the party winning back the White House without Virginia- because of that fact and because of Obama’s relative strength there, this is looking to me like the most important state in the Presidential race next year.

Exactly and why Mitch Daniels or Chris Christie will jump into the race.

The entire poll is here.

President 2012 Virginia Poll Watch: Obama 51% vs. Romney 44%, Obama 53% Vs. Huckabee 44%

Posted 1 CommentPosted in Donald Trump, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Polling, President 2012, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty

According to the latest Washington Post poll.

Presidential Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:

  • Barack Obama – 57% Vs. 40% (49% vs. 46%)

General Election Head to Head:

  • Obama – 51% vs. Romney – 44% (48% Vs. 46%)
  • Obama – 53% Vs. Huckabee – 44% (50% Vs. 46%)
  • Obama – 55% Vs. Pawlenty – 35% (51% Vs. 38%)
  • Obama – 61% Vs. Trump – 30% (54% Vs. 35%)
  • Obama – 61% Vs. Palin – 30% (55% Vs. 36%)

Virginia is a key battleground state that the Republican nominee will need to deny President Barack Obama a second term. Undoubtedly, President Obama has received a bounce from the Osama bin Ladin operation and this is somewhat reflected in this poll.

However, the GOP will either have to nominate someone else or hope that Romney and/or Huckabee will be able to persuade Virginia voters.

Survey of 1,180 adults in Virginia was conducted April 28 – May 4, 2011; including 677 interviews before the killing of Osama bin Laden, with 503 afterward. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points.  Results from interviews conducted before the announcement of bin Laden’s death are in parentheses.

President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee Lead – Palin and Trump = Not So Much

Posted Posted in Donald Trump, Jon Huntsman, Mike Huckabee, Mitch Daniels, Mitt Romney, Polling, President 2012, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty

According to the latest Quinnipiac National Poll.
By healthy margins, American voters say they would consider or be enthusiastic about backing former governors Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee for president, but 58 percent would never support Sarah Palin or Donald Trump, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

No surprise here.

Sarah Palin and Donald Trump will NOT be candidates, in any case.

The race will either be Huckabee Vs. Romney Vs. Daniels or Huckabee Vs. Romney Vs. Pawlenty. And, Jon Huntsman will be in the mix somewhere.