• Donald Trump,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Rudy Giuliani

    President 2012 New Hampshire GOP Poll Watch: Romney 32% Trump 17% Giuliani 8% Gingrich 8% Huckabee 8% Paul 8%

    According to the latest ARG Poll.

    The poll was conducted April 16 – 21 with 600 likely Republican primary voters. The margin of error is 4%.

    • Mitt Romney – 32%
    • Donald Trump – 17%
    • Newt Gingrich – 8%
    • Rudy Giuliani – 8%
    • Mike Huckabee – 8%

    With Mike Huckabee’s lead in Iowa, and Mitt Romney’s lead in New Hampshire, it looks like a stalemate until the Nevada caucuses, South Carolina and Florida primary elections. If no other candidates step forward soon, would the GOP consider a tag team of Romney and Huckabee?

  • Donald Trump,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 Iowa Poll Watch: Obama 45% Huckabee 45% – Obama 45% Vs Romney 41%

    According to the latest PPP Poll.

    Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:

    • President Barack Obama – 46% Vs. 48%

    Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

    • Mitt Romney – 36% Vs. 44%
    • Mike Huckabee – 41% Vs. 43%
    • Newt Gingrich – 24% Vs. 56%
    • Sarah Palin – 29% Vs. 63%

    General Election Head to Head:

    • Obama – 45% Vs. Romney 41%
    • Obama – 45% Vs. Huckabee 45%
    • Obama – 53% Vs. Palin – 36%
    • Obama – 51% Vs. Trump – 35%
    • Obama – 50% Vs. Gingrich – 39%
    • Obama – 43% Vs. Romney – 27% Vs. Trump – 21% (as an independent)

    Iowa like Larry Sabato mentioned this morning may indeed be in play for race for 2012.

    The entire PPP Poll is here.

    When PPP last polled Iowa in early January, President Obama was enjoying a bit of a surge in popularity following the lame-duck session of Congress. He has since slipped, and his small leads over his main prospective challengers have accordingly closed. Half of Iowans approved of the president’s job performance three months ago, and 43% disapproved. But he is now slightly underwater, as nationwide, with only 46% approving and 48% disapproving. The slippage has come across the board. In January, 13% of Republicans approved and only 8% of Democrats disapproved, but those numbers are now reversed, while independents have moved from 49-40 to 41-50.

    The good news is that the Republicans have all gotten slightly less popular as well, and none is better liked than the president. But re-election bids are more a mandate on the incumbent than the challenger, and a slightly unpopular incumbent against a slightly unpopular challenger usually produces a tie.

    Looks to me that Iowa voters will be comfortable with either Mike Huckabee who won the 2008 Iowa GOP caucuses and leads in the polls there for 2012 or Mitt Romney who has been showing strength in New Hampshire and Florida. It also looks like Iowa may be a key battleground state which is surprising to me.

    Does the Iowa trend mean that other battleground fronts may open for President Obama? Maybe like Pennsylvania and New Mexico?

    Also, an exit question to ponder: Might Romney and Huckabee make an early deal and be the 2012 ticket? It has happened before, thinking Reagan – Bush.

    Stay tuned…..

  • Donald Trump,  Michele Bachmann,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Rudy Giuliani,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 Iowa GOP Poll Watch: Huckabee 18% Romney 17% Gingrich 12% Trump 10% Bachmann 9% Giuliani 8% Palin 4%

    According to the latest ARG Iowa Poll.

    Interesting to me is how well Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani do in relation to Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann who is a native Iowan.

    But, polling in Iowa is tough because it is a caucus state and not a primary election.

    Mike Huckabee won Iowa in 2008 and continues to lead the race. Will we have a repeat race between Huck and Romney or will Mitt concede Iowa and concentrate on Florida?

  • Barack Obama,  Donald Trump,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 Poll Watch: Barack Obama 46% Vs. Mitt Romney 45%

    According to the latest McClatchy-Marist Poll.

    When given the choice between former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and the president, voters divide. 46% of registered voters say they would back the president while 45% say they would cast their ballot for Romney. Nine percent are undecided.

    When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in January, Mr. Obama had a 13 percentage point lead over Romney. At that time, a slim majority — 51% — said they would vote for the president while 38% thought they would back Romney. 11% were undecided.

    The president has lost ground among independent voters. Currently a plurality — 45% — back Romney while 42% support Obama. 13% are undecided. Previously, the president held a 10 percentage point lead over Romney.

    And, what about if Mike Huckabee is the Republican nominee?

    When paired with former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, President Obama has a slight lead. 48% of voters say they would support the president in this hypothetical contest while 43% believe they would back Huckabee. Nine percent are undecided. However, Huckabee has narrowed the gap. In McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey, 12 percentage points separated the two. In January, half of voters — 50% — said Obama was their candidate while 38% said the same about Huckabee. 12% were undecided.

    Other GOP potential nominees don’t do so well against President Obama, including Sarah Palin (56% Vs. 34%)  and Donald Trump (54% Vs. 38%).

    The GOP Field Head to Head (Republicans and Republican Leaning Independents):

    • Mitt Romney – 18%
    • Mike Huckabee – 17%
    • Donald Trump – 13%
    • Rudy Giuliani – 9%
    • Sarah Palin – 8%
    • Ron Paul – 7%
    • Newt Gingrich – 4%
    • Michele Bachmann – 3%
    • Mitch Daniels – 2%
    • Tim Pawlenty – 2%

    Other notable findings:

    • Romney and Huckabee run evenly among Republicans with 19% each.
    • Huckabee is the favorite among Tea Party supporters with 20%.
    • Trump tops the list among Republican leaning independents with 18%.

    This is another national poll, so you really cannot read too much into it except that President Obama is not doing well against two Republican nominees who have not really started to campaign and one who has not even decided to run for the Presidency.

    President Barack Obama has officially announced that he will seek re-election next year, but he faces an electorate that still needs convincing. According to this McClatchy-Marist Poll, a plurality of registered voters nationwide — 44% — say they definitely plan to vote against Mr. Obama in 2012. 37% report they definitely plan to vote for him, and 18% are unsure.

    Despite the president’s transition into campaign mode, little has changed on this question since McClatchy-Marist last asked it in November. At that time, 48% of voters said they will not support the president in his re-election bid while 36% thought they would. 16%, at the time, were unsure.

  • Barack Obama,  Donald Trump,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 Poll Watch: Obama 49% Vs Romney 45%

    According to the latest Washington Post-ABC News Poll.

    This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone April 14-17, 2011, among a random national sample of 1,001 adults, including users of both conventional and cellular phones. The results from the full survey have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.

    Again, this is a national poll which, I have mentioned before, means little in the grand scheme of polling for the Presidency. What is important here is that the narrative from the left-leaning Washington Post is that President Obama is vulnerable because of the economy.

    Deepening economic pessimism has pushed down President Obama’s approval rating to a near record low, but he holds an early advantage over prospective 2012 rivals in part because of widespread dissatisfaction with Republican candidates, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

    In the survey, 47 percent approve of the job Obama is doing, down seven points since January. Half of all Americans disapprove of his job performance, with 37 percent saying they “strongly disapprove,” nearly matching the worst level of his presidency.

    Driving the downward movement in Obama’s standing are renewed concerns about the economy and fresh worry about rising prices, particularly for gasoline. Despite signs of economic growth, 44 percent of Americans see the economy as getting worse, the highest percentage to say so in more than two years.

    The toll on Obama is direct: 57 percent disapprove of the job the president is doing dealing with the economy, tying his highest negative rating when it comes to the issue. And the president is doing a bit worse among politically important independents.

    Then, there is the continuing narrative from the LEFT, that despite Obama’s problems with the economy, the GOP field is doing worse. Well, perhaps.

    If Obama is running into headwinds, however, his potential Republican opponents face serious problems, as well. Less than half of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say they are satisfied with the field of GOP candidates.

    That field is still taking shape, but the sentiment is a big falloff from four years ago, when nearly two-thirds of Republicans were satisfied with their options.

    Lack of enthusiasm for the candidates came in other measures, as well. When Republicans and GOP-leaners were asked who they would vote for in a primary or caucus, only former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney registered in double digits, with 16 percent. More than double that number expressed no opinion and an additional 12 percent volunteered “none” or “no one.”

    Businessman Donald Trump (8 percent), former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee (6 percent) and former Alaska governor Sarah Palin (5 percent) were the only other names volunteered by more than 2 percent of respondents.

    The fact is the GOP is keeping its powder dry and waiting to tag team President Obama. This is a smart strategy.

    As Obama and the Democrats gear up their campaign (which, by the way, will only be in about 10 states), the GOP field is maturing. Frankly, a number of potential candidates will not be around past two or three primary electoral contests.

    On the bright side of this poll, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee are within the margin of error nationally and they really have not started to campaign.

    And, the attention the past two weeks has been on the surrogate Donald Trump who has been attacking Obama mercilessly without any of the baggage falling upon Romney or Huckabee. The question will be how much will Obama be able to take before attacking Trump with surrogates?

    Again, not too much in this poll, except that President Obama is vulnerable and especially vulnerable on the economy.

  • Barack Obama,  Donald Trump,  Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012 Poll Watch: Obama 49% Trump 34%

    According to the latest Rasmussen Poll.

    President Obama leads Donald Trump by 15 percentage points in a hypothetical 2012 match-up, but the president is unable to top the 50% level of support even against an opponent some are deriding as a joke.

    The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that the president earns support from 49% of Likely Voters nationwide, while Trump attracts the vote from 34%. Given that choice, 12% would vote for some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.

    Only 65% of Republican voters would vote for Trump over Obama. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 48% prefer Obama, 25% Trump, and 20% would opt for some other candidate.

    Regardless of what Republican is matched against the president, Obama earns between 42% and 49% support.  Trump doesn’t run as well against the president as the top tier of GOP candidates, but he does pick up more support than insider favorites Mitch Daniels and Jon Huntsman and entrepreneur Herman Cain.

    Donald Trump is all about name identification and would fare against President Obama worse than any of the possible GOP candidates, despite these early polls.

    Notice how there have been NO attacks from the LEFT abut his candidacy. They love the idea of his whacky candidacy and will later try to bash the GOP with it – but not now.

  • Donald Trump,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Trump 19% Huckabee 19% Palin 12% Romney 11% Gingrich 11%

    According to the latest CNN/Opinion Research Poll.

    The CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll was conducted by telephone, with 824 people questioned. The survey’s overall sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

    • Donald Trump – 19%
    • Mike Huckabee – 19%
    • Sarah Palin – 12%
    • Mitt Romney – 11%
    • Newt Gingrich – 11%
    • Ron Paul – 7%
    • Michele Bachmann – 5%

    So, where are Donald Trump’s votes coming from – meaning at whose expense?

    Trump jumped from 10 percent in a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll conducted last month, with Romney dropping from 18 percent to 11 percent.

    “Are Republicans switching from Romney to Trump? Some are, but it’s a lot more complicated than that, as you would expect with 11 potential hats in the ring,” adds Holland. “Only one in five Trump supporters say that Romney would be their second choice. It looks like Trump pulls as much support from Gingrich and Palin as from Romney, and Romney’s support would go down even if Trump were not in the list of potential candidates.”

    Not necessarily a good poll for Mitt Romney who earlier announced a Presidential exploratory committee, Tim Pawlenty who has already announced and Newt Gingrich who has been pseudo-running for over a year. Sarah Palin will likely not run and has been making no moves to do so.

    But, who do Republican voters really want?

    According to the survey, more than seven in ten Republicans say that regardless of whom they would support, they’d like to see Huckabee run for the party’s presidential nomination, with two-thirds saying the same thing about Romney.

    But that figure drops to 56 percent for Trump, with 43 percent saying they don’t want to see him run. By a narrower 53 to 47 percent margin, they would like to see Palin make a bid for the White House, and by a 51 to 45 percent margin, they would like to see Gingrich run.

    I would say a fresh face but if that is not available, then MIke Huckabee – if he runs.

  • Donald Trump,  Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012 Poll Watch: Donald Trump 43% Favorable Vs. 47% Unfavorable

    According to the latest Gallup Poll.

    Americans have mixed opinions about businessman, television personality, and potential presidential candidate Donald Trump, with 43% saying their opinion is favorable and 47% holding an unfavorable opinion. Trump’s public image is roughly the same now as it was in September 1999, just before the real estate mogul formed an exploratory committee to investigate the possibility of running for president on the Reform Party ticket.

    Heartbreak…..But, then again, I stopped watching the Celebrity Apprentice a few years ago.

    By the way, the chances of Donald Trump obtaining the GOP Presidential nomination are slim to none, irrespective of some polls showing otherwise.

    At this point, no one except perhaps Trump himself knows how serious he is about running for president. Although Trump has a more positive image among Republicans than among independents or in particular among Democrats, his 52% favorable rating among Republicans is relatively modest. The competitive field for 2012 is generally fairly open, however, given that no major candidate has formally declared that he or she is running, and there is no dominant front-runner.

    Trump does enjoy what many candidates strive hard to develop — 90% name recognition among all Americans and among Republicans. This generally makes him one of the most recognized potential GOP candidates Gallup tracks, in the same general territory as Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, Newt Gingrich, and Mitt Romney. Whether Trump could parlay that familiarity into voter support in primaries and caucuses is an open question.

    A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll released on Wednesday showed Trump does generate some support from Republicans. The poll found Trump essentially tied with Huckabee for second place behind Mitt Romney in a trial-heat test for the nomination among Republicans.

    Trump has been critical of President Obama in recent weeks, particularly focusing on the “birther” issue of whether Obama was actually born in the United States. At this point, the president’s image among Americans is more positive than Trump’s. Fifty-four percent of Americans in the March 25-27 survey rate the president favorably, compared with the 43% who view Trump favorably.

  • Donald Trump,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 New Hampshire GOP Poll Watch: Romney 27% Trump 21% Huckabee 12% Gingrich 12%

    According to the latest PPP Poll.

    Mitt Romney’s still the clear early front runner to take the Republican primary in New Hampshire next year but for the first time in our polling of the race PPP finds someone within single digits of him…Donald Trump.

    If Trump actually run 21% of New Hampshire GOP voters say they’d vote for him, compared to 27% for Romney. The key to Trump’s relatively strong showing? He does well with birthers and Tea Partiers, two groups he has seemed to actively court with his public comments of late. 42% of primary voters firmly say they do not believe Barack Obama was born in the United States to 35% who believe that he was and 23% who aren’t sure. Trump leads Romney 22-21 with the birther crowd, but Romney holds the overall lead because he’s up by a much wider margin with the folks who dismiss the birther theory.

    Trump also leads Romney 23-21 with the Republican primary voters who consider themselves to be Tea Party members but that’s only 30% of the electorate and Romney’s up by a good margin with the folks who don’t identify with that movement.

    If you take Trump out of the picture Romney maintains the customary wide lead he has shown in most polling of the state. On the standard Republican primary question we ask in every state Romney gets 31% to 15% for Mike Huckabee, 13% for Newt Gingrich, 10% for Sarah Palin and Ron Paul, 4% for Michele Bachmann and Tim Pawlenty, and 2% for Haley Barbour.

    Yeah, but don’t get to excited Donald Trump or anti-Romney fans. Mitt still owns New Hampshire and nobody does particularly well there except him.

    I suspect most candidates, when the field becomes more defined, will ignore New Hampshire or try for a second/third place finish before moving on to primary elections that will matter, South Carolina, Nevada and Florida.