• Mitch Daniels,  President 2012

    President 2012 Video: My Man Mitch on the Campaign Trail?

    Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels on CNBC’s The Wall Street Journal Report; 4/18/2011

    Perhaps. Mitch Daniels says he will announce one way or another after the Indiana Legislative session.

    He would be a welcome addition to the lackluster field of GOP Presidential candidates but I would bet the likelihood of Daniels running at about 50-50.

    However, he would make a great running mate for either Mitt Romney or Mike Huckabee.

  • Barack Obama,  Chris Christie,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Rand Paul,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 Poll Watch: Barack Obama 48% Vs. Mike Huckabee 43%, Barack Obama 47% Vs. Mitt Romney 41%


    Chart from Pollster

    According to the latest PPP Poll.

    Job Approval Vs. Disapproval:

    • President Barack Obama – 47% Vs. 48%

    GOP Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:

    • Mike Huckabee – 36% Vs. 42%
    • Mitt Romney – 32% Vs. 43%
    • Sarah Palin – 31% Vs. 61%
    • Newt Gingrich – 28% vs. 55%
    • Rand Paul – 26% Vs. 45%
    • Chris Christie – 28% Vs. 30%

    General Election Head to Head:

    • Obama – 48% Vs. Huckabee – 43%
    • Obama – 47% Vs. Romney 41%
    • Obama – 54% Vs. Palin – 36%
    • Obama – 52% Vs. Gingrich – 38%
    • Obama – 48% Vs. Paul – 38%
    • Obama – 48% Vs Christie – 39%

    Again, this is an aggregate national poll but it shows a couple of things:

    • Obama has a negative approval rating
    • This GOP candidate field is weak against the President in the general election.

    Additionally, President Obama is doing well with independent voters.

    The president wins by racking up the independent vote by double-digit margins against everyone but Christie, who holds him to a seven-point advantage. The others trail with this group by ten (Huckabee and Romney) to a whopping 28 points (Palin). Obama also pads his leads by getting double-digit GOP support against Gingrich and Palin.

    If the GOP wants to beat Obama in 2012, they had better develop a better candidate field, consolidate behind him or her and be ready to hit the ground running after Labor Day 2011. The delay in the GOP selection process may allow say a Rep. Paul Ryan or Governor Mitch Daniels to jump into the field and become the fresh face of the GOP.

    The GOP needs such a candidate, if they wish to win next year.

  • Mitch Daniels,  President 2012

    President 2012: Sounds Like Mitch Daniels is a Presidential Candidate?

    Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels

    Sounds like it.

    Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels is appearing somewhat so-so about mounting a presidential bid, telling the Indianapolis Star the process is “savage” and suggesting it’s likely he’ll end up supporting another Republican White House hopeful.

    “I like all those folks,” said Daniels of the likely GOP presidential field in comments published Wednesday. “Odds are I’ll wind up supporting one of ’em, so I’ve got nothing but good things to say about them.”

    “I always thought if I had a contribution to make beyond being governor it might be to offer some thoughts like these and support somebody else who might do it. It might still work out that way,” the Indiana Republican added.

    Daniels, the former budget director under President Bush who – to the chagrin of some in his party – has long advocated the importance of fiscal concerns over social issues, also reiterated that he’ll make his final decision soon after his state’s legislative season ends at the end of this month.

    But, don’t take my word for it. Here is the take from an Indiana political observer.

    Wearing a green jacket that made him look like he’d just won the Masters, Gov. Mitch Daniels on Tuesday talked about the “savage process” politicians go through when running for president, and about the “certainty of hurtful things” occurring to the families of those seeking the job.

    But it’s clear he is deeply interested in launching a campaign.

    Daniels eagerly fielded questions about the idea of running for president during a meeting with The Indianapolis Star’s Editorial Board on Tuesday afternoon. His answers made clear what we already knew — that he is giving the question deep thought — and underscored how intently he has worked through the issues that would face him and the messages on which he would base a campaign.

    Much of his message would center on his concern about what he calls the “red menace” of federal debt, which has been the focus of many of his national speeches and writings.

    If he runs, he said, “it would simply be because I do think, and I hope I am wrong, that the country has put itself in a very difficult place.”

    There is incentive to tackle the problem now, he said, before the problem is too dire. He warned that if the nation delays Medicare and Social Security reforms, the goal he and many others share of not reducing benefits for those approaching retirement age may prove to be out of reach.

    “We’re starting to run out of time,” he said.

    And, what would a Daniel’s campaign look like?

    Gov. Mitch Daniels’ campaign for president would be a crusade against federal debt and for major entitlement reform — if, that is, he runs.

    Daniels detailed for The Indianapolis Star Editorial Board on Tuesday a presidential campaign that would take on some of the biggest issues the nation has faced. But he insisted he hasn’t yet made up his mind that he’s the right candidate to lead that fight.

    Time, though, is running out.

    Time is running short but the GOP Presidential nomination process has been delayed – much to the consternation of the Obama re-election campaign. But, Daniels, who was President Ronald Reagan’s political director understands that the Presidental race is really one that focuses on just a few key battleground states.

    He does, though, see Obama as potentially vulnerable.

    “My best guess is he’s not a lock for re-election,” Daniels said. “People have pointed out there’s a number of states like this one that he won last time that he is very unlikely to win the next time. . . . If you peel away Indiana and North Carolina and Virginia and some say Florida, suddenly there’s not a whole lot of margin for error left.”

    Still, he added, it isn’t the polls that show Obama vulnerable or show the other candidates weak that is entering into his election analysis. Polls right now are meaningless, he said.

    The Presidential polls are not meaningless in one respect, however. There is NO GOP front-running candidate and the race is wide-open as a result.

    A race that Mitch Daniels may soon enter.

  • Mike Huckabee,  Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012 Poll Watch: Mike Huckabee 43% Vs. Barack Obama 43%

    According to the latest Rasmussen Poll.

    Job Approval Vs. Disapproval

    President Barack Obama – 46% Vs. 54%

    Head to Head:

    • Huckabee – 43% Vs. Obama – 43%
    • Obama – 45% Vs. Romney – 40%
    • Obama – 48% Vs. Palin – 38%
    • Obama – 49% Vs. Gingrich – 37%
    • Obama – 45% Vs. Pawlenty – 35%
    • Obama – 45% Vs. Daniels 32%

    For a non-candidate candidate, Mike Huckabee continues to poll well against President Obama. The ONLY announced candidate Tim Pawlenty is behind by 10 points and Mitt Romney who has announced a Presidential Exploratory Committee is behind by 5.

    But, it is still very early although President Obama looks, at least now, vulnerable.

  • Mike Huckabee,  Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Mike Huckabee is Strongest as President Obama Announces

    According to the latest Gallup Poll.

    With President Obama officially announcing his candidacy for re-election on Monday, the question of whom he will run against becomes even more relevant. Three possible Republican candidates — Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and Newt Gingrich — are currently best situated among Republicans nationwide in terms of name recognition and Gallup Positive Intensity Scores. Sarah Palin and Ron Paul are also well known, but generate lower net enthusiasm from those who know them. Of the less well-known potential GOP candidates, Herman Cain, Michele Bachmann, and Tim Pawlenty have the highest Positive Intensity Scores.

    Here is the positive intensity score chart.

    And, the name recognition chart.

    So, what does all mean?

    Gallup’s ongoing tracking shows that former Arkansas Gov. and current Fox News commentator Huckabee is the GOP leader at this point, based on his high name recognition and advantage in Positive Intensity. Huckabee also leads when Gallup asks Republicans whom they would support for the nomination. It remains unclear, however, whether Huckabee will end up running for his party’s nomination.

    Gingrich and Romney are clearly in second place behind Huckabee, based on their name identification and Positive Intensity Scores. However, neither man generates levels of support from Republicans that are as high as Huckabee’s, and neither has been able to change his status much over the last month. Gingrich has been more public about his intention to run for president, while Romney has maintained a somewhat lower national profile, even while traveling extensively to early primary and caucus states.

    As is the case for Huckabee, Palin’s intentions about running for president next year are unknown. By virtue of her inclusion on the national GOP ticket in 2008 and her ongoing television exposure, she is almost universally known among Republicans nationwide. But Palin’s positioning in the minds of Republicans who do know her is weaker than that of other potential candidates: 23% of those who recognize her have a strongly favorable opinion, compared with 7% who are strongly unfavorable.

    The potential for other less well-known Republicans to increase their name recognition and become serious contenders for their party’s nomination is the interesting question going forward. The data clearly show that Bachmann and Cain have a reaction-generating edge among those who know them, which in theory puts them in a position to make an impact if they can become better known. Pawlenty, who appears to be making a serious run at the presidency, is known by about 4 out of 10 Republicans and has a Positive Intensity Score slightly below Cain’s and Bachmann’s. Other, less well-known candidates such as Mississippi Gov. Barbour, Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman, and Daniels currently do not generate high positive emotions from those who know them, something that would need to change if they are to contend for the nomination.

    The GOP Presidential race is wide-open is what these polls really say.

    Mike Huckabee should he choose to run and there has been little indication that he would, would be in the best position with Romney and Gingrich trailing – with little enthusiasm. Sarah Palin, who has been AWOL from Presidential speculation lately is behind the three.

    My guess is that a candidate who is not registering on the radar, like Mitch Daniels, Rudy Giuliani or Chris Christie may indeed join the race and the perceived vacuum of GOP candidates.

  • Mitch Daniels,  President 2012

    Updated: President 2012: Mitch Daniels to Kick Off Presidential Run?; Wife Who Shuns Political Spot Light to Deliver Speech

    Indiana GOP Governor Mitch Daniels

    Perhaps or is it just another policy speech?

    Mitch Daniels has been mostly tethered to Indianapolis during a contentious legislative session, but he’s planning a trip to Washington next month to deliver what’s sure to be a high-profile speech on education.

    The Indiana governor will address the American Enterprise Institute on May 4, POLITICO has learned, discussing what has been the centerpiece of his agenda this year.

    Thousands of opponents and supporters have descended on the Indiana state capitol in recent months to weigh in on Daniels’ push to offer school vouchers, expand charter schools, overhaul teacher tenure and weaken the collective bargaining rights of teachers.

    The Hoosier has been mum about whether he intends to run for president, but has indicated he’ll make up his mind after his legislative session, now slated for April 29th. Should legislators meet their deadline, Daniels’ AEI speech could amount to his unofficial campaign debut. At the very least, it’ll be watched closely for clues as to whether he’s inclined to run.

    If Mitch Daniles is going to run, there will be a some sort of bat signal to the blogosphere – so stay tuned.

    Update:

    Sort of a bat signal here.

    Indiana’s low-profile first lady will step out as the main speaker at a state Republican Party dinner about the same time as Gov. Mitch Daniels could say whether he’ll run for president.

    Cheri Daniels will be the keynote speaker for the May 12 fundraising dinner in Indianapolis, focusing on her role as first lady, the state Republican Party announced Monday.

  • Mitch Daniels,  President 2012

    President 2012: Mitch Daniels to Kick Off Presidential Run?

    Indiana GOP Governor Mitch Daniels

    Perhaps or is it just another policy speech?

    Mitch Daniels has been mostly tethered to Indianapolis during a contentious legislative session, but he’s planning a trip to Washington next month to deliver what’s sure to be a high-profile speech on education.

    The Indiana governor will address the American Enterprise Institute on May 4, POLITICO has learned, discussing what has been the centerpiece of his agenda this year.

    Thousands of opponents and supporters have descended on the Indiana state capitol in recent months to weigh in on Daniels’ push to offer school vouchers, expand charter schools, overhaul teacher tenure and weaken the collective bargaining rights of teachers.

    The Hoosier has been mum about whether he intends to run for president, but has indicated he’ll make up his mind after his legislative session, now slated for April 29th. Should legislators meet their deadline, Daniels’ AEI speech could amount to his unofficial campaign debut. At the very least, it’ll be watched closely for clues as to whether he’s inclined to run.

    If Mitch Daniles is going to run, there will be a some sort of bat signal to the blogosphere – so stay tuned.

  • Barack Obama,  Chris Christie,  Mitch Daniels,  Polling,  President 2012

    President 2012 Poll Watch: President Obama as a Strong Leader = Not So Much

    According to the latest Gallup Poll.

    Americans have grown increasingly less likely to view President Obama as a strong and decisive leader since he took office. Roughly half now believe this aptly describes, him compared with 60% a year ago and 73% in April 2009.

    And, only 36% say Obama has a clear plan for solving America’s problems.

    So, what does this mean?

    Throughout this year in office, President Obama’s ratings on several dimensions, including job approval and most personal characteristics, trended downward, but have since more or less stabilized. One notable exception to that general pattern is perception of the president as a strong and decisive leader, which has continued to drop, and now only a slim majority of Americans rate him positively in this regard.

    Given the timing of the two most recent ratings on Obama as a strong and decisive leader (March 2010 and 2011), it is not clear how much the recent events in the Middle East have contributed to this perception. Obama’s overall job approval rating in Gallup Daily tracking has fluctuated since mid-March, roughly coinciding with the military campaign in Libya. For the week of March 21-27, though, Obama averaged 45% approval and 47% disapproval, his worst since December.

    Moreover, Obama’s ratings for handling the situations in Libya and Egypt have not been stellar but also not poor. In any case, much of the 2011 news coverage has focused on major international events and President Obama’s response to these events has been a key element of that coverage.

    Politically, it means the President is vulnerable – if the Republicans can get their act together and nominate a strong leader = hello Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels or New Jersey Governor Chris Christie.

  • Mike Huckabee,  Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 Michigan GOP Poll Watch: Romney 26% Huckabee 20% Gingrich 15% Palin 12%

    According to the latest PPP Poll:

    • 26% Romney
    • 20% Huckabee
    • 15% Gingrich
    • 12% Palin
    • 7% Paul
    • 5% Daniels
    • 3% Pawlenty
    • 3% Walker

    But, Romney is not polling as well as iin 2008 – in a state where his father, George Romney was once Governor and where Mitt was raised.

    On the surface Romney’s lead is good news for him. But in 2008 he took 39% in the primary in the state while Huckabee got only 16%. So compared to then Romney is down by 13 points while Huckabee’s improved by four. That sort of trend in Romney’s numbers compared to the support he got in his first bid is becoming common place in our polls.

    Romney’s weakness continues to be with voters who describe themsevlves as ‘very conservative.’ With moderates he gets a strong 39% and with ‘somewhat conservative’ voters he’s at a respectable 28%. But with ‘very conservative’ folks he just ties Huckabee at 20%. More over his favorability with them is only 63% compared to 83% for Palin, 71% for Huckabee, and even 65% for Gingrich. Romney’s weak standing with the far right is his greatest hurdle to potentially winning the nomination.

  • Michele Bachmann,  Mike Huckabee,  Mitch Daniels,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin

    President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Mike Huckabee Has a Slight Edge.. But..

    According to the latest Gallup poll.

    Mike Huckabee tops a large list of potential GOP presidential candidates in current support for the party’s 2012 nomination, with 19% of Republicans saying they are most likely to back him. This gives Huckabee a slight edge over Mitt Romney (15%). Sarah Palin is now at 12% after receiving 16% support in three prior Gallup polls. Newt Gingrich is the only other potential candidate who registers double-digit support. Sixteen percent of Republicans currently have no preference.

    The March 18-22 poll of more than 1,000 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents was conducted as the field of candidates has yet to emerge. Since Gallup’s February measurement of nomination preferences, Gingrich and Tim Pawlenty have taken formal steps toward announcing their candidacies but have stopped short of doing so, and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann is reportedly going to follow suit by the summer.

    There continues to be speculation about the leading candidates’ plans. Most political experts believe Romney will eventually enter the race, but questions remain about whether Huckabee and Palin will want to abandon their lucrative media careers to pursue the presidency.

    But, if Huckabee decides not run – very likely in my opinion, then it is between Romney and Palin.

    And, if Huckabee runs and Sarah Palin does not, then, Huck becomes the front-runner:

    So, what does all of this mean?

    There continues to be no front-runner for the GOP Presidential nomination and various scenarios will play out should either Mike Huckabee or Sarah Palin decide to run or not.

    I think the fact that Michele Bachman is gearing up for a possible run and that Dick Armey of the Tea Party organization, FreedomWorks, has said he could endorse Mitch Daniels may give an indication that there may soon be a different set of scenarios and candidates.