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The Morning Flap: March 6, 2013
These are my news headlines for March 5th through March 6th:
- Hugo Chavez, passionate but polarizing Venezuelan president, dead at 58 – Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, who went from a young conspiratorial soldier who dreamed of revolution to the fiery anti-U.S. leader of one of the world’s great oil powers, died March 5 in Caracas of complications from an unspecified cancer in his pelvic area.He was 58 and had been president since 1999, longer than any other democratically elected leader in the Americas. Vice President Nicolas Maduro announced the death.Mr. Chavez first revealed in a brief, dramatic television address in June 2011 that he had undergone two surgical procedures in Cuba. He would go under the knife two more times, greatly weakening the once robust leader. Mr. Chavez had been elected in October 2012 to a third six-year term. But he missed his swearing-in ceremony on Jan. 10 while lying gravely ill in a Havana hospital after undergoing what his aides had called a complex operation a month before.
The country was plunged into an institutional crisis, with Mr. Chavez’s foes accusing the government of violating the constitution. But Mr. Chavez’s lieutenants managed to buy time until their leader’s pre-dawn return to Venezuela on Feb. 18. He remained at a Caracas military hospital, with his Twitter account bursting out messages such as “Onward toward victory always!! We will live and we will triumph!!”
As an obscure 37-year-old lieutenant colonel, Mr. Chavez had led a failed coup in 1992 against President Carlos Andres Perez’s government. Six years later, on Dec. 6, 1998, Mr. Chavez was elected president in a landslide after pledging to replace a broken, corrupt political system and redistribute the country’s substantial oil-fueled wealth.
- Jeb Bush is back in the spotlight — and thinking about 2016 – Former Florida governor Jeb Bush, who has remained on the sidelines since his older brother left the White House with dismal ratings four years ago, has jumped back into the political fray this week with a new book, wall-to-wall television interviews and a round of public speaking engagements.His appearances mark a change in approach for Bush, 60, who has operated as more of a Republican elder statesman since leaving Tallahassee in 2007 but is now clearly considering a run for the White House.
- Journalists as Ring Wraiths – Today’s Washington journalists are like J. R. R. Tolkien’s ring wraiths, petty lords who wanted a few shiny golden Obama rings — only to end up as shrunken slaves to the One.The Bob Woodward/Ron Fournier/Lanny Davis psychodrama is another small reminder that the Obama administration continues to assume that the press should be little more than a veritable Ministry of Truth. Its proper duty is to serve the White House and promote the progressive agenda of Barack Obama. Any were considered suspect who questioned whether those exalted ends should really be achieved by any means necessary — but they were so few and far between that it mattered little.
- Massachusetts needs a waiver from Obamacare rules for small-business health plans – Massachusetts has made a concerted effort in the last few years to rein in health care costs for small businesses. But new federal regulations written to implement the Affordable Care Act threaten to undercut those efforts — and saddle thousands of Bay State businesses with big increases in premiums.
- God and Jeb at CPAC – CPAC Has Become the Defender of the Status Quo – John McCain’s presidential campaign manager from four years ago, Steve Schmidt, has compared the upcoming Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) to the “Star Wars bar scene.”Reflecting on the dysfunctional 2008 freak show that passed for a campaign against Barack Obama, Mr. Schmidt would know.The conference’s problem, for many longtime participants, is not the diversity and raucous freedom one might expect to find in a social club on an alien planet. The quandary is that what is now the largest gathering of conservative activists in the nation has wandered far from its original intent, which was a rejection of the status quo.
In the old days, the event represented the best intellectual revolutionary elements of the conservative movement. Panel after panel would argue and debate issues such as abortion, foreign aid, spending policies and about what the true Holy Grail of conservatism entailed – defending institutions or individuals?
The conference was always separate and apart from the GOP establishment, even in the Reagan years. Today it no longer represents a joyous insurgency but is instead part of the Washington political establishment.
- The Mighty Jeb Bush Comes Down to Earth – Bush’s flip flop on immigration will doom any chance he had for a 2016 Presidential race.
- Boehner Pledges to Stick to the ‘Hastert Rule’ – Speaker John A. Boehner sought to assure his conference on Tuesday that the “Hastert rule” is still regular practice, on the heels of breaking it for the third time this Congress.Republicans breached the rule — under which the speaker only brings forward bills that enjoy support from the “majority of the majority” — last week when a reauthorization of the Violence Against Women Act passed with a majority of Democratic votes. Of three major bills passed this session, two have passed in violation of the rule. The House passed the fiscal-cliff deal Jan. 1 despite the rule as well.The rule — named after former Speaker J. Dennis Hastert, R-Ill. — may be tested again in coming months on legislation relating to immigration and gun control, although a GOP leadership aide said that scenario is highly unlikely.
- Analyst estimates Chávez’s family fortune at around $2 billion – But, u can’t take it with you RT @DRUDGE_REPORT: CLAIM: Chavez Had Amassed Private Fortune of $2 Billion…
- CDC Warns Of Spread Of Deadly Antibiotic-Resistant Bacteria « CBS Miami – CDC Warns Of Spread Of Deadly Antibiotic-Resistant Bacteria #tcot
- Twitter / RepJoseSerrano: Hugo Chavez was a leader that … – RT @jeffemanuel: So, is it McCarthyism to declare @RepJoseSerrano a dyed-in-the-wool, dictator-supporting socialist?
- Untitled (http://bigstory.ap.org/article/chavezs-successor-venezuela-nicolas-maduro) – RT @AP: Hugo Chavez’s successor in Venezuela: Nicolas Maduro: -CC
- Jeb Bush immigration comments spark uproar – Kevin Robillard – POLITICO.com – RT @politico: Jeb Bush immigration comments spark uproar:
- Jeb Bush: Actually, I could support a path to citizenship in theory « Hot Air – Jeb Bush is all over the place on immigration. He is as much feckless as his brother W was wrong #tcot
- Video: Jeb Bush on 2016: ‘I’ve Decided . . . Not to Think About It for a While’ – Former Florida governor Jeb Bush continued to fend off speculation about his 2016 presidential prospects this morning, saying that he hasn’t decided whether he’ll run and won’t for at least another couple years.“I’ve decided not to think about it for a while, and I have the discipline to do that,” Bush told CBS’s Charlie Rose, and that his focus is on being a voice in immigration reform, the subject of his new book, Immigration Wars. When co-host Norah O’Donnell suggested that it was interesting he hadn’t ruled out running, Bush laughed it off: “I guess that’s interesting, I don’t find it that interesting.”
- Rubio in ‘same place’ as Jeb Bush on immigration – POLITICO.com – “@politico: Marco Rubio in “same place” as Jeb Bush on immigration, @mkraju reports: “
- Ken Jeong AHA Hands-Only CPR video – YouTube – RT @RaDragon: Disco is NOT dead 😉 PSA: Hands-Only CPR
- Support @Flap – Gregory Flap Cole in the 2013 Los Angeles Marathon – Locum Tenens (Temporary) Dentist – Gregory Cole, D.D.S. – Support @Flap – Gregory Flap Cole in the 2013 Los Angeles Marathon #tcot
- Jeb Bush’s False-Flag Operation – Jeb Bush generated quite a bit of publicity for his new book yesterday by suggesting that amnestied illegal immigrants should not be eligible for citizenship. Instead, he’s suggesting they be given some kind of permanent status that would provide them work cards, Social Security numbers, driver’s licenses, and the right to travel abroad and return, but not allow for eventual naturalization — in effect, a kind of permanent guestworker program or a green-card-lite, rather than an actual green card. This is consistent with suggestions from other pro-amnesty Republicans, including Senator Rubio and a group of House members working up an amnesty deal.Unfortunately, it’s a trick.
- Two more casualities of Twitter’s power play | Android Central – @TweetDeck better give mobile users a better app RT @androidcentral: Two more casualities of Twitter’s power play
- Jeb Bush’s Poorly Timed Flip-Flop on Immigration – NationalJournal.com – Jeb knows exactly what he is doing |Jeb Bush’s Poorly? Timed Flip -Flop on Immigration
- A Market Solution to Immigration Reform | RealClearPolitics – A Market Solution to Immigration Reform #tcot
- Hugo Chavez, passionate but polarizing Venezuelan president, dead at 58 – Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, who went from a young conspiratorial soldier who dreamed of revolution to the fiery anti-U.S. leader of one of the world’s great oil powers, died March 5 in Caracas of complications from an unspecified cancer in his pelvic area.He was 58 and had been president since 1999, longer than any other democratically elected leader in the Americas. Vice President Nicolas Maduro announced the death.Mr. Chavez first revealed in a brief, dramatic television address in June 2011 that he had undergone two surgical procedures in Cuba. He would go under the knife two more times, greatly weakening the once robust leader. Mr. Chavez had been elected in October 2012 to a third six-year term. But he missed his swearing-in ceremony on Jan. 10 while lying gravely ill in a Havana hospital after undergoing what his aides had called a complex operation a month before.
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The Morning Flap: March 5, 2013
Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush is interviewed on Fox News and discusses his new immigration bookThese are my links for February 28th through March 5th:
- Jeb Bush’s False-Flag Operation – Jeb Bush generated quite a bit of publicity for his new book yesterday by suggesting that amnestied illegal immigrants should not be eligible for citizenship. Instead, he’s suggesting they be given some kind of permanent status that would provide them work cards, Social Security numbers, driver’s licenses, and the right to travel abroad and return, but not allow for eventual naturalization — in effect, a kind of permanent guestworker program or a green-card-lite, rather than an actual green card. This is consistent with suggestions from other pro-amnesty Republicans, including Senator Rubio and a group of House members working up an amnesty deal.Unfortunately, it’s a trick.
- A Market Solution to Immigration Reform – Since the recession formally ended in June 2009, the American economy has been growing at a rate of 2%, about one percentage point below its long-term average. To improve this performance, the U.S. needs more people with skills, vision and a drive to improve themselves—qualities that lead to innovation, business creation, increased employment and higher wages. One quick way to get such people is through immigration. A market approach would do this.We propose that, instead of the current maze of rules and formulas, the U.S. should sell the right to become a citizen. Setting a price of perhaps $50,000 would attract those who place the highest value on citizenship.
- Jeb Bush’s Poorly Timed Flip -Flop on Immigration – Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush’s new book was aimed at nudging a reluctant Republican Party toward reforms that would allow illegal immigrants to live and work without fear of deportation.But by recommending only legal residency and backing off his past support for citizenship, Bush is throwing cold water over a fledgling deal in the Senate, denting his own reputation as a bold policymaker and stoking speculation that he will run for president in 2016.None of those things were supposed to happen.The stunning reversal by one of the Republican Party’s leading champions of immigration reform and Hispanic outreach, at least in part, comes down to a colossal political miscalculation.When Bush and coauthor Clint Bolick were writing the book during the 2012 presidential campaign, the GOP was veering far to the right. Republican nominee Mitt Romney had staked out a hard-line position against illegal immigration, blasting his primary rivals as pro-amnesty and promoting “self-deportation” for undocumented workers. Bush sent the book to the printer before Christmas – weeks before a handful of Senate Republicans embraced a sweeping overhaul that, like the proposals backed by Bush’s brother, former President George W. Bush, would allow illegal immigrants to earn citizenship.
In other words, Bush’s party unexpectedly moved a lot faster than the book-publishing world.
- Video: Jeb Bush Promotes Comprehensive Immigration Reform
- Obama job approval tumbles After Sequester Debate – President Obama’s job approval rating took a hit over the weekend, falling to its lowest level in the Gallup three-day average since his reelection.His approval rating was 46 percent between Feb 29 and March 2, down from 53 percent a week earlier.The drop comes after Obama and Congress failed to reach a last-minute deal and automatic sequester cuts kicked in across the government on Friday.His disapproval rating also jumped to its highest level since November, hitting 46 percent over the weekend, up from 40 percent a week earlier.
- Ashley Judd’s War With Kentucky’s Coal Industry Could Doom Candidacy – Comments Ashley Judd made in 2010 comparing the mining practices of Kentucky’s coal industry to rape could sink her much buzzed-about Senate candidacy before it even begins.In a 2010 speech to the National Press Club in Washington, Judd called mountain top removal — the controversial but principal type of surface mining in Appalachia that involves the removal of mountaintops to extract coal — “the state-sanctioned, federal government-supported, coal industry-operated rape of Appalachia.”Coal mines employe more than 19,000 people through
the year in Kentucky according to a report from the state, and the mining directly contributed approximately $4 billion to the state’s economy while accounting for 1 percent of the state’s employment. Kentucky’s economic reliance on coal ranks in the top three in the United States, behind only West Virginia and Wyoming.Judd’s use of rape to define the mining practice wasn’t a slip of the tongue. Later in her speech she doubled down on her remarks. - Tag-teaming Obama – John Boehner and Mitch McConnell are currently mopping the floor with Barack Obama – Don’t tell the Tea Party, but the tag team of John Boehner and Mitch McConnell are currently mopping the floor with Barack Obama.The president convincingly won a second term in November, but since that time, the congressional Republican leadership has outfoxed, outmaneuvered and plain out-strategized him on just about every issue.
- What’s Jeb Bush up to?
- Wait: Jeb Bush now opposes a path to citizenship for illegals? – So his plan is DOA in Congress, but he knows that already. The point here isn’t to float a viable compromise that might make comprehensive reform more salable to the base, it’s to give Bush a way to hit Rubio from the right in the primaries two years from now — which is ironic, because in another segment this morning, Bush told Lauer that Romney got in trouble with Latino voters by tacking a bit too far right on immigration in the debates in 2011. I assume he thinks he’s built up enough cred with Latinos over the years that backing away from a path to citizenship now won’t cost him many votes. We’ll see.
- Jeb Bush pushes back against pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants – Former Florida governor – and potential GOP presidential candidate – Jeb Bush said this week that a pathway to citizenship should not be a component of an overhaul of the nation’s immigration system.Bush, a Spanish-speaker who’s wife is Mexican-born, has long-been viewed as one of the more liberal-minded GOP leaders when in comes to immigration policy, warning Republicans for years that they oppose significant reform at their own political peril.
- Official Website for IMMIGRATION WARS by Jeb Bush & Clint Bolick – RT @JebBush Honored to work w/my friend Clint Bolick. #ImmigrationWars hits shelves tomorrow.
- Ow.ly – image uploaded by @JebBush – RT @JebBush Honored to work w/my friend Clint Bolick. #ImmigrationWars hits shelves tomorrow.
- Doctors report first cure of HIV in a child – Doctors report first cure of HIV in a child #tcot
- Exercise, less sitting time, linked to better sleep
| Reuters – Exercise, less sitting time, linked to better sleep #tcot - Journaling helps woman lose half her body weight – CNN.com – Journaling helps woman lose half her body weight #tcot
- Republican Consultants Plot New Tech-Savvy Infrastructure – After last year’s blowout election, the Republican digital strategist Patrick Ruffini went on a not-so-secret mission to find out how to fix what was wrong with his party. “In less than 12 hours, the #infiltration begins,” he tweeted, the day before the start of RootsCamp, an annual conference for Democratic digital, data and grassroots strategists that is held by a liberal non-profit group called the New Organizing Institute.What he found at the event came as a sort of revelation: A vast liberal brain trust bursting with young talent who had advanced far beyond Republicans in the art and science of using data, analytics and voter outreach. He live-tweeted his observations, and then began meeting with other young strategists in his party, like Katie Harbath, who handles Republican campaign outreach for Facebook, Kristen Soltis Anderson, a pollster at the Winston Group, and Reihan Salam, a political columnist for the National Review.
- Chris Christie will have an uphill battle for the 2016 nomination – Also of note?Wall Street Journal columnist and deputy editor, Daniel Henninger , claimed Christie has an “uphill battle” for the 2016 nomination, thanks to his conservative competition.”This is going to be a different group of people that Chris Christie will be competing against, and he’ll be competing as a governor from the liberal Northeast.I think it’s an uphill battle.”Finally, one more thing of note?
Gigot pointed out that New Jersey’s 9.6% unemployment rate was “one of the worst records in the country.”
- Tim Carney: Health industry pushes GOP states toward Obamacare | Mobile Washington Examiner – Health industry pushes GOP states toward Obamacare #tcot
- Health industry pushes GOP states toward Obamacare – Republicans around the country railed against President Obama’s health-care law for four years, but in recent weeks, GOP governors and state legislators have embraced some of the bill’s provisions.
How did Republicans learn to stop worrying and love Obamacare?
In a word: industry.Hospitals, insurers and drug companies have lobbied in state capital after state capital, leaning on Republicans until they agreed to create insurance exchanges or expand Medicaid as Obamacare prescribed. - Moderate Ex-Lt. Gov. Abel Maldonado “seriously” considers run against Jerry Brown | Politics Blog | an SFGate.com blog – Moderate Ex-Lt. Gov. Abel Maldonado “seriously” considers run against Jerry Brown
- Allysia Finley: The Reverse-Joads of California – WSJ.com – The Reverse-Joads of California
- Gallup Poll: Asian voters lean Democratic, but are not strongly committed – A new poll found that Asian-Americans lean Democratic, but that they are not strongly committed to either the GOP or the Democratic Party.Fifty-seven percent of Asian-Americans lean Democratic, compared with 28 percent who lean Republican and 13 percent who are independent, according to a Gallup poll released Monday. The remaining are undecided or did not respond.
- Untitled (http://www.sacbee.com/2013/03/03/5229747/cancer-stole-her-voice-but-tv.html#mi_rss=Opinion?utm&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed&u – Untitled (… #tcot
- (500) http://flapsblog.com/2013/03/04/flaps-blog-flap-twitter-daily-digest-for-2013-03-03/ – Flap’s Blog @ Flap Twitter Daily Digest for 2013-03-03 #tcot
- Untitled (http://www.sacbee.com/2013/03/03/5229747/cancer-stole-her-voice-but-tv.html#mi_rss=Opinion?utm&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter) – Untitled (… #tcot
- Untitled (http://www.sacbee.com/2013/03/03/5229747/cancer-stole-her-voice-but-tv.html#mi_rss=Opinion?utm&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter) – Untitled (… #tcot
- At state convention, Republicans try to chart a new way forward – latimes.com – At state convention, Republicans try to chart a new way forward
- Calif. GOP seeks answers for turning party around – San Jose Mercury News – California GOP seeks answers for turning party around
- Flap’s Blog @ Flap Twitter Daily Digest for 2013-03-02 – Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Flap’s Blog @ Flap Twitter Daily Digest for 2013-03-02 #tcot
- CA GOP Convention delegates urge retired congressmen to help party’s finances | CalWatchDog – CA GOP Convention delegates urge retired congressmen to help party’s finances
- Gregory Flap @ Glendale-Hyperion Bridge – Finished the almost 10 miles of hills at Dodger Stadium. Now, some good food at Walt’s studio. [pic]:
- Gregory Flap @ Dodger Stadium – Getting ready for hill training with LA Roadrunners (@ Dodger Stadium w/ 3 others) [pic]:
- Flap’s California Blog @ Flap Twitter Digest for 2013-03-01 – Flap’s California Blog – Flap’s California Blog @ Flap Twitter Digest for 2013-03-01
- Flap’s Blog @ Flap Twitter Daily Digest for 2013-03-01 – Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Flap’s Blog @ Flap Twitter Daily Digest for 2013-03-01 #tcot
- Joshua Treviño Admits to Shilling for Malaysia – Conservative commentator Joshua Treviño admitted today that he’s spent years doing down-low PR work for the government of Malaysia, and received $389,724.70 for the trouble. Some of that, but not most, was paid to writers who wrote negative pieces about the country’s opposition leader for the likes of the Huffington Post, National Review, and RedState. BuzzFeed’s Rosie Gray, in a report on the scam this afternoon, picks up where her boss Ben Smith left off. In 2011, Treviño told Smith, “I was never on any ‘Malaysian entity’s payroll,’ and I resent your assumption that I was,” which he now admits was a lie. But he’s not particularly sorry.
- Covert Malaysian Campaign Touched A Wide Range Of American Media – A range of mainstream American publications printed paid propaganda for the government of Malaysia, much of it focused on the campaign against a pro-democracy figure there.The payments to conservative American opinion writers — whose work appeared in outlets from the Huffington Post and San Francisco Examiner to the Washington Times to National Review and RedState — emerged in a filing this week to the Department of Justice. The filing under the Foreign Agent Registration Act outlines a campaign spanning May 2008 to April 2011 and led by Joshua Trevino, a conservative pundit, who received $389,724.70 under the contract and paid smaller sums to a series of conservative writers.
- Political Cartoons / So, you think Obama is over-hyping this sequestration thing? – So, you think Obama is over-hyping this sequestration thing? via @pinterest
- Twitter / SpaceX: LIFTOFF of Falcon 9 and #Dragon … – Beautiful! RT @SpaceX LIFTOFF of Falcon 9 and #Dragon to the International Space Station
- Twitter / NASA: Liftoff of the @SpaceX Falcon … – RT @NASA: Liftoff of the @SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket and #Dragon spacecraft to the #ISS!
- Watch Live: SpaceX’s Dragon Blasts Off to Space Station | Wired Science | Wired.com – RT @wired: Watch Live now: SpaceX’s Dragon Blasts Off to Space Station
- Flap’s California Blog @ Flap Twitter Digest for 2013-02-28 – Flap’s California Blog – Flap’s California Blog @ Flap Twitter Digest for 2013-02-28
- Flap’s Blog @ Flap Twitter Daily Digest for 2013-02-28 – Flap’s Blog – FullosseousFlap’s Dental Blog – Flap’s Blog @ Flap Twitter Daily Digest for 2013-02-28 #tcot
- ASICS Support Your Marathoner – I’m running the 2013 Los Angeles Marathon sponsored by ASICS. Cheer me on at via @ASICSamerica
- Club for Growth President Chocola: ‘Sooner or Later, They Won’t Want You to be their Speaker’ – I will be surprised if Boehner survives as Speaker more than through the summer.
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The GOP Rush to Immigration Reform
[youtube]http://youtu.be/jTtgx21VNls[/youtube]
Sen. Rubio Discusses His Immigration Principles on “The Mark Levin Show “
All of potential 2016 GOP Presidential candidates are rushing out their plan to provide comprehensive immigration reform.
Senator Marco Rubio has one and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush has a post today in the Wall Street Journal and is working on a book to be released in March.
Why?
Cynically, you could say in order to capture the growing Hispanic vote from the Democrats (Obama) who won over 70 per cent last November. You could also say in order to co-opt President Obama and his fellow Democrats who wish to “legalize” which equals citizenship and voting and permanently capture millions of Asian and Hispanic votes in future elections.
But, there really is NO rush for Republicans.
Let’s face it, the GOP brand does not do well at the polls with African-Americans, Asians or Hispanics. This is not a recent demographic fact. Even President Reagan did not do that great with these groups. Neither did the senior Bush. W did some what better, but was a disaster for the GOP brand.
A thorough review of immigration policy is fine.
Increasing skill-based immigration for certain workers, while increasing educationally opportunities for native born Americans is OK.
Implementing an employer based E-Verify enforcement of work documents is necessary, but will take some time.
Mexican border security needs to be further tightened, especially with regards to Mexican and Central American drug cartels.
But, the rest is just political pandering which will NOT benefit conservatives, nor the GOP in 2016 or anytime before.
Time for the discussion, but not the time to make a major immigration policy change. The GOP controlled House should exert its check on the Obama Administration and immigration amnesty prone GOP Senators.
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Jeb Bush 2016: Is There Any Doubt?
Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney is joined by former Florida Governor Jeb Bush (L) and U.S. Representative Connie Mack (R-FL) (R) onboard his campaign plane Reuters Photo
Looks like the 2016 Presidential field is already set.
Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush in a rematch of the Bush Vs. Clinton clan Presidential fight.
Former Florida governor Jeb Bush met Monday with a group of his former staffers at the J. W. Marriott hotel on Pennsylvania Avenue, just steps from the White House. Bush, a potential 2016 presidential contender, spent an hour in the hotel’s Cannon room, reminiscing and entertaining questions about his political future.
In an interview with NRO, Bush did not rule out a presidential run. “I am here to catch up with folks and promote education reform,” he said, smiling.
When asked again whether he will issue a Sherman-type statement about his future, Bush remained coy. “We have an alumni group that I like keeping in touch with,” he said. “I’m here to focus on educational reform, and that’s what I’m going to tell people.”
Neil Newhouse, Mitt Romney’s campaign pollster, among other GOP operatives, was at the meeting.
Here we go!
So, should we speculate as to Jeb’s Vice Presidential running mate?
Condoleezza Rice – without a doubt.
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President 2016: Insiders Say Bush, Rubio or Christie
Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush and Florida U.S. Senator Marco Rubio
The National Journal has one of its Political Insiders polls up and this time it is the Presidential race in 2016.
GOP insiders:
- Marco Rubio 40%
- Jeb Bush 27%
- Paul Ryan 9%
- Rick Santorum 9%
- Chris Christie 8%
Democratic insiders:
- Jeb Bush 47%
- Chris Christie 28%,
- Marco Rubio 13%
And, we all know that if Hillary Clinton wants the Democratic nomination that she will be the nominee.
What do I envision?
A Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush race.
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President 2012: If Mitt Romney Loses Michigan – We Need a New Candidate Says Top GOP Senator
Former Gov. Jeb Bush speaks at the Hispanic Leadership Network’s conference, Thursday, Jan. 26, 2012 in Miami
You knew it was going to start.The GOP establishment is getting antsy about Mitt Romney and if he does manage to lose Michigan – well, he is done.
A prominent Republican senator just told me that if Romney can’t win in Michigan, the Republican Party needs to go back to the drawing board and convince somebody new to get into the race.
“If Romney cannot win Michigan, we need a new candidate,” said the senator, who has not endorsed anyone and requested anonymity.
The senator believes Romney will ultimately win in Michigan but says he will publicly call for the party to find a new candidate if he does not.
“We’d get killed,” the senator said if Romney manages to win the nomination after he failed to win the state in which he grew up.
“He’d be too damaged,” he said. “If he can’t even win in Michigan, where his family is from, where he grew up.”
What about Rick Santorum?
“He’d lose 35 states,” the senator said, predicting the same fate for Newt Gingrich.
And, who would the new candidate be?
Jeb Bush, said this Senator.
I, frankly, think it will be Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels or Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal – or even Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan.
If the GOP wants to win against President Obama, they had better hope Santorum beats Romney in Michigan.
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President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Newt Gingrich Poll Lead Collapses
According to the latest Gallup Poll.After enjoying 14- to 15-percentage-point leads over Mitt Romney in early December, Newt Gingrich is now statistically tied with Romney in national Republican preferences for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination: 26% for Gingrich vs. 24% for Romney. This follows a steady decline in support for Gingrich in the past 10 days.
The latest findings are from Dec. 13-18 Gallup Daily tracking, based on 1,177 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who are registered to vote. Gallup initiated Daily tracking of the Republican presidential trial heat on Dec. 1, and reports the results in continuous five-day rolling averages.
No single candidate has benefited proportionately more from Gingrich’s 11-point decline — from 37% to 26% — over the past 10 days. Rather, Gallup polling finds slight increases in support for the six remaining major candidates in the race. Also, the percentage of Republicans favoring none of the candidates or who are unsure has risen by three points, from 14% to 17%.
Twenty-four percent of registered Republicans and Republican-leaning independents now favor Romney for the nomination. This is up just slightly from the 22% to 23% level seen for much of the first two weeks of December. Support for Ron Paul is now 11%, up from 8% to 9% earlier in the month — marking the first time his support has been above 10% since mid-September. At that time, a Gallup poll of all Republicans/Republican-leaning independents put his support at 13%.
The GOP Establishment “pile on” against Newt Gingrich has been profound and frequent. Gingrich who has little campaign cash and/or organization to respond to the attacks both in the free media and “on air” has had as meteoric a rise as has been his collapse. Gingrich has wilted under all of the attacks. Here is the graph:
It seems the GOP voters are “settling” now for Mitt Romney or are giving other candidates a second look.
I maintain that there is still time for a third candidate to arise from the ash pile of former GOP Poll leaders. Today’s hunch is Jeb Bush who, today, has a piece in the Wall Street Journal.
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Chris Christie, Herman Cain, Jeb Bush, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Paul Ryan, Polling, President 2012, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty
President 2012 Iowa GOP Poll Watch: Romney 21% Cain 15% Palin 15% Gingrich 12%
According to the latest PPP Poll.
Favorable Vs. Unfavorable:
- Newt Gingrich – 39% Vs. 41%
- Sarah Palin – 59% Vs. 31%
- Mitt Romney – 51% Vs. 34%
- Tim Pawlenty – 48% Vs. 18%
- Herman Cain – 38% Vs. 24% Vs Not Sure = 38%
- Michele Bachmann – 53% Vs. 16%
- Jeb Bush – 51% Vs. 20%
- Ron Paul – 42% Vs. 29%
- Rick Santorum – 29% Vs. 18% Vs. Not Sure = 53%
- Rudy Giuliani – 49% Vs. 31%
- Donald Trump – 28% vs. 56%
- Jon Huntsman – 7% Vs. 23% Vs. Not Sure = 70%
- Chris Christie – 42% Vs. 12% Vs. Not Sure = 46%
- Rick Perry – 21% Vs. 16% Vs. Not Sure = 63%
- Paul Ryan – 42% Vs. 14% Vs. Not Sure = 45%
GOP Primary Caucus Head to Head:
Given the choices of Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney, who would you most like to see as
the Republican candidate for President next year?- Romney – 21%
- Palin – 15%
- Cain – 15%
- Gingrich -12%
- Pawlenty – 10%
- Ron Paul – 8%
- Jon Huntsman – 0%
If Sarah Palin does not run then?
- Romney – 26%
- Cain – 16%
- Gingrich – 15%
- Bachmann – 14%
- Pawlenty – 10%
- Paul – 11%
- Huntsman – 1%
If the Republican nomination came down to Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
- Romney – 48% Vs. Palin – 41% Vs. Not Sure = 11%
If the Republican nomination came down to Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty, who would you vote for?
- Romney – 41% Vs. Pawlenty – 41% Vs. Not Sure = 18%
If the Republican nomination came down to Mitt Romney and Herman Cain, who would you vote for?
- Romney – 48% Vs. Cain – 34% Vs. Not Sure = 19%
If the Republican nomination came down to Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann, who would you vote for?
Romney – 46% Vs. Bachmann – 38% Vs. Not Sure = 16%
Mitt Romney is leading in Iowa ever since Mike Huckabee exited the race, but he is being challenged by a surging Herman Cain. Iowa will be the first primary state for the 2012 Presidential nominee and is a caucus state.
Cain and Palin have been the biggest beneficiaries in Iowa of Huckabee and Trump’s decisions not to run. Cain is at 15% now despite not even having been included on our last poll. Palin’s gained 7 points in the six weeks since our last poll compared to 5 point gains for Romney, Pawlenty, and Bachmann, a 3 point gain for Gingrich, and a 2 point bump for Paul.
Romney’s leading in Iowa based on his strength with centrist and center right Republican voters. With moderates he’s at 34% to 16% for Palin, 13% for Paul, and 11% for Gingrich. With ‘somewhat conservative’ voters he’s at 24% to 15% for Pawlenty, 13% for Palin, and 12% for Gingrich and Cain. His strength with those two groups outweighs his continuing weakness with the furthest right group of voters in the state, which constitute the largest segment of the Republican electorate at 41%. With those ‘very conservative’ folks Romney can muster only a fourth place finish at 13%. Cain and Palin tie for the lead with that group of voters at 19% followed by Bachmann at 15%.
I would think one would have to say that while Mitt Romney is leading, conservative candidates Cain, Palin and Bachmann are splitting votes. If Iowa conservatives were to consolidate on one candidate, then Romney is in trouble. Surprisingly, Tim Pawlenty, a moderate-conservative does the best head to head with Romney though.
Here is a summary of the favorable vs unfavorable data:
So, what does this all mean?
There is definitely room for the entry of a “new” candidate like Paul Ryan, Chris Christie or Jeb Bush. The $1 million question is whether Sarah Palin runs and if she does, whether the GOP establishment then run someone else against her, ie. Ryan,Christie or Bush?
Tim Pawlenty is not catching fire and Jon Huntsman fledgling campaign is on life support – at least in Iowa.
The entire poll is here. -
President 2012: Jeb Bush is Still a NO
Nothing like a busted Amtrak train to bring me face-to-face with the one man Republicans would love — and I mean LOVE — to get into the 2012 race for the Republican presidential nomination. Former governor Jeb Bush (R-Fla.) and his wife Columba were just a few rows behind me. So, of course, I couldn’t resist asking him a question he has heard myriad times. “Is there any possible way your party could convince you to run for president,” I asked? “I don’t think so,” he said. “A lot of people are asking me that, and it’s flattering. But the Magic Eight Ball says, ‘Outlook not so good.’ ”
This comes mere hours before former House speaker Newt Gingrich alerts the world via Twitter, Facebook and Fox News that he will seek the 2012 Republican nomination for president. According to Gallup, he will enter the race with high name recognition and low positive intensity. I’d love to say there’s nowhere to go but up for him, but that wouldn’t be true.
My bet is that Mitch Daniels and/or Chris Christie will jump in very soon.
After Mitt Romney’s disastrous blow up on RpomneyCare today, he is out and Mike Huckabee is still not showing any effort.
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President 2012 Florida Poll Watch Angst: Jeb Bush 57% Vs. Barack Obama 38%
President Obama shakes hands with former Florida Governor Jeb Bush
According to the latest Viewpoint Florida Poll.If the 2012 Presidential election were held today, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush would defeat President Barack Obama in the Sunshine State by nearly 20 points.
Governor Bush’s 57%-38% lead over Obama can be attributed to several interesting figures found in the crosstabs of our statewide survey of likely voters in Florida. For example, Bush enjoys a 66%-31% lead over President Obama among male voters, but only leads Obama 50%-44% among women.
Governor Bush leads President Obama among all age groups except voters aged 18-34, where Obama hangs on to a slim 48%-45% lead. Bush holds a 56%-40% lead with voters over 65, and crushes Obama 66%-32% with voters between 35 and 49 years old.
26% of Democrats stated they would vote for the younger brother of former President George W. Bush over Barack Obama if the Presidential election were held today. Bush has almost unanimous support from his base with 89% of Republicans supporting him, while Obama gets just 71% support from members of his own party. Governor Bush also leads President Obama 46%-40% among independent voters.
Finally, our regional crosstabs show Governor Bush dominating the President in Jacksonville and Florida’s Panhandle. 71% of respondents in that region preferred Governor Bush, to just 27% who said they would pull the lever for President Obama. Bush earns 60% support in Orlando and the Space Coast, beating Obama in that swing region by 27 points. Bush even bests Obama in South Florida, where he holds a narrow 48%-46% lead.
Except Jeb is not running…..
But, can Bush help a candidate, perhaps like Mitch Daniels?