• American Economy,  Polling,  Unemployment Rate

    Poll Watch: U.S. Unemployment Rate is 10% in March – Down From February – But So What?

    March 31, 2011 /


    America’s unemployment rate was down in March 2011 and down from March 2010 as measured by Gallup.

    Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, was 10.0% in March — down from 10.2% in mid-March and 10.3% at the end of February, but above the 9.8% at the end of January. U.S. unemployment was 10.4% at the end of March a year ago.

    What about the percentage of part-time workers?

    And, underemployment also declined in March.

    But, what does this mean? Is America’s economy improving?

    Not according to Gallup.

    ADP on Wednesday reported that U.S. private-sector jobs increased by 201,000 in March — the third consecutive month at this level of job growth. At the same time, Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed a sharp decline in March U.S. layoffs compared with last year. All of this is consistent with Gallup’s Job Creation Index, which has shown slightly more jobs being created and comparatively low layoffs during the first quarter of 2011.

    However, contrary to the federal government’s recent job reports, Gallup’s unemployment and underemployment measures suggest that recent job increases have not been sufficient to significantly improve the jobs situation so far in 2011. Although both of Gallup’s measures were marginally better in March, they remain higher now than they were in January.

    The March improvement in the jobs situation compared with February may be partly the result of seasonal hiring patterns, with companies increasing their hiring at this time of year. However, the 2010 jobs situation didn’t show substantial improvement until the second half of April. Regardless, the decline in the underemployment rate year-over-year is consistent with a cautious hiring approach in which employers avoid layoffs while taking on more part-time workers and limiting their hiring of full-time employees.

    Despite the March uptick, Gallup’s view of the U.S. jobs situation remains substantially less optimistic than the government’s recent unemployment report might suggest. Added to this, late March Gallup Daily tracking results show a continuing decline in economic optimism, a pullback in consumer spending, and a drop in Gallup’s Job Creation Index. This suggests that recent behavior on Main Street does not reflect the government’s rosier assessment. It also implies that the recent marginal improvement Gallup finds may be more temporary than one might hope.

    Looks like the Obama Administration is spinning the numbers to creat some economic optimism but too many Americans remain out of work and economic activity remains stagnant at best.

  • Polling,  Scott Brown,  U.S. Senate 2012

    MA-Sen Poll Watch: Sen. Scott Brown Safe for 2012?

    March 31, 2011 /

    Massachusetts Republican U.S. Senator Scott Brown

    Apparently so, according to a DSCC poll.

    Massachusetts is a deeply Democratic state, one in which barely more than 15 percent of the seats in the state Legislature are held by Republicans and fewer than 15 percent of all registered voters belong to the GOP. So it’s hardly surprising that national Democrats have been making noise about defeating the state’s Republican senator, Scott Brown, when he stands for reelection next year.

    “It’s a priority for us,” Guy Cecil, the executive director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, told the Boston Globe when he made a two-day trip to the Bay State earlier this month.

    But the DSCC received some bad news this week when a poll it commissioned found that Brown’s popularity is soaring. The survey, which has been seen by at least one D.C. insider and was detailed for Salon, measured Brown’s approval rating at 73 percent — easily surpassing the scores for Barack Obama and the state’s two top Democrats,  Gov. Deval Patrick and Sen. John Kerry. It also found him running over the magic 50 percent mark against every potential Democratic challenger, and crushing the strongest perceived Democrats (Reps. Michael Capuano and Ed Markey and former Rep. Marty Meehan) by double-digit margins. The results only grew closer when respondents were primed with negative information about Brown.

    Good news for the GOP in taking over the U.S. Senate majority in 2012. The Republicans need to win a net of three seats to replace Harry Reid as Senate Majority Leader.

  • Pinboard Links

    Flap’s Links and Comments for March 31st on 01:21

    March 31, 2011 /

    These are my links for March 31st from 01:21 to 08:42:

  • Mike Huckabee,  Mitt Romney,  Newt Gingrich,  Polling,  President 2012,  Sarah Palin,  Tim Pawlenty

    President 2012 New Jersey Poll Watch: Mike Huckabee Running Even with President Obama

    March 31, 2011 /

    According to the latest Farleigh Dickinson Poll.

    For the GOP Nomination:

    • Mike Huckabee – 21%
    • Mitt Romney – 20%
    • Sarah Palin – 12%
    • Chris Christie – 10%
    • Newt Gingrich – 10%
    • Tim Pawlenty – 5%

    Head to Head with the President:

    • Obama – 46% Vs. Huckabee – 46%
    • Obama – 44% Vs. Romney – 43%
    • Obama – 46% Vs. Christie – 40%
    • Obama – 54% Vs. Palin – 34%
    • Obama – 52% Vs. Gingrich – 37%
    • Obama – 48% Vs. Pawlenty – 34%

    Among independent voters:

    Christie also shows appeal among independent voters.  While Palin runs behind Obama 34%-52% among independents, Christie runs ahead of Obama with independents 43%-40%. Similarly, Gingrich loses to the president 40%-45% among independents, and Pawlenty comes in behind by 33%-41%. “Christie can appeal to voters beyond the party base in a way that some other big-name Republicans can’t and won’t,” Woolley added.

    An interesting poilling result in what is generally considered a deep blue state. Mike Huckabee again is polling well whereas Sarah Palin is NOT.

    I wonder if Mike Huckabee might be reconsidering his seeming ambivalence to running for the Presidency?

    Exit question: How well would Mike Huckabee poll if Sarah Palin declared she was NOT a canddate?

  • Twitter

    @Flap Twitter Updates for 2011-03-31

    March 31, 2011 /

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  • Pinboard Links

    Flap’s Links and Comments for March 30th on 19:46

    March 30, 2011 /

    These are my links for March 30th from 19:46 to 20:18:

    • Republican leaders say, ‘No deal yet’ on Budget – However, Republicans deny this is the case. Michael Steel, spokesman for House Speaker Rep. John Boehner (R-Ohio) told me: “There have been discussion for weeks, and those discussions are continuing. There’s no agreement, and nothing will be agreed to until everything is agreed to.” A top adviser on the Senate side echoes that.

      The real issue may not be the dollar amount. A senior adviser to a top Senate Republican tells me that the riders on funding of Planned Parenthood, the EPA and ObamaCare are the bigger stumbling blocks. He believes that “in the end” there will be an agreement, although he jokes, “there are so many ways to screw it up.”

    • Planned Parenthood CEO’s False Mammogram Claim Exposed – A series of new undercover phone calls reveals that contrary to the claims of Planned Parenthood CEO Cecile Richards and other supporters of the nation’s largest abortion chain, the organization does not provide mammograms for women.

      In the tapes, a Live Action actor calls 30 Planned Parenthood clinics in 27 different states, inquiring about mammograms at Planned Parenthood. Every Planned Parenthood, without exception, tells her she will have to go elsewhere for a mammogram, and many clinics admit that no Planned Parenthood clinics provide this breast cancer screening procedure. “We don’t provide those services whatsoever,” admits a staffer at Planned Parenthood of Arizona. Planned Parenthood’s Comprehensive Health Center clinic in Overland Park, KS explains to the caller, “We actually don’t have a, um, mammogram machine, at our clinics.”

      Opponents of defunding Planned Parenthood have argued in Congress and elsewhere that the organization provides many vital health care services other than abortion, such as mammograms. Most prominently, Planned Parenthood CEO Cecile Richards recently appeared on The Joy Behar Show to oppose the Pence Amendment to end Planned Parenthood’s taxpayer subsidies, claiming, “If this bill ever becomes law, millions of women in this country are gonna lose their healthcare access–not to abortion services–to basic family planning, you know, mammograms.”

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      Read it all – and defund them….

  • Pinboard Links

    Flap’s Links and Comments for March 30th on 18:06

    March 30, 2011 /

    These are my links for March 30th from 18:06 to 18:20:

    • Budget Negotiators Reach Tentative Deal To Avert Government Shutdown – Sources tell me that  budget negotiators on Capitol Hill have tentatively agreed on a deal that would involve at least $33 billion in spending cuts from this year’s budget.  That’s $23 billion dollars more than Democrats have previously agreed to in short-term continuing resolutions, and $28 billion less than Republicans previously passed in the House.

      Members of the House Appropriations Committee will begin discussing how to hit that number with their Senate counterparts as soon as tonight, and Vice President Biden is heading to Capitol Hill for a 6pm meeting with the Senate Democratic leadership.

      The deal could still fall apart over the composition of the cuts, or policy “riders” previously passed by the House. These include issues like de-funding Planned Parenthood and President Obama’s health care legislation.  It’s also not clear that this compromise will fly with rank-and-file House Republicans, which means that the $33 billion goal could still climb by a few billion.  But this is most significant progress since the beginning of negotiations.

      Update: Kevin Smith, a spokesman for the Speaker of the House, tells me "“There is no agreement on a number for the spending cuts. Nothing is agreed to until everything is agreed to.”

      ======

      OK for this year but only with a balance budget amendment.

    • Arnold Schwarzenegger is back as ‘The Governator’ – He’s been a famous body builder. He’s been a killer cyborg from the future. He’s been Governor of California. And now, in this week’s exclusive cover scoop, Arnold Schwarzenegger reveals his plans for the next phase of his extraordinary career: He’s going be a cartoon superhero, known as The Governator. “When I ran for governor back in 2003 and I started hearing people talking about ‘the Governator,’ I thought the word was so cool,” Schwarzenegger, 63, tells EW in his first press interview since leaving office last January. (Watch an EW-exclusive video of Schwarzenegger talking about the project.) “The word Governator combined two worlds: the world of politics and the movie world. And [this cartoon] brings everything together. It combines the governor, the Terminator, the bodybuilding world, the True Lies…” 
      The animated TV show and comic book, being co-developed by no less a superhero authority than Spider-Man co-creator Stan Lee (pictured, right), won’t be out until next year,…

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      Hope the cartoon ends up better than his Governorship which was horrible.

    • Barack Obama authorizes secret help for Libya rebels – President Barack Obama has signed a secret order authorizing covert U.S. government support for rebel forces seeking to oust Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, government officials told Reuters on Wednesday.

      Obama signed the order, known as a presidential "finding", within the last two or three weeks, according to government sources familiar with the matter.

      Such findings are a principal form of presidential directive used to authorize secret operations by the Central Intelligence Agency. This is a necessary legal step before such action can take place but does not mean that it will.

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      Read it all.

    • Barack Obama’s jaw-dropping hypocrisy on energy – McConnell gave a speech on the Senate floor this morning that including these zingers:

      Over the past two years, the administration has undertaken what can only be described as a war on American energy. It’s cancelled dozens of drilling leases. It’s declared a moratorium on drilling off the Gulf Coast. It’s increased permit fees. It has prolonged public comment periods. In short, it’s done just about everything it can to keep our own energy sector from growing. As a result, thousands of U.S. workers have lost their jobs, as companies have been forced to look elsewhere for a better business climate.

      Consider this: just three of the areas we could tap in Alaska are thought to hold enough oil to replace our crude imports from the Persian Gulf for nearly 65 years. So the problem isn’t that we need to look elsewhere for our energy. The problem is that Democrats don’t want us to use the energy we have. It’s enough to make you wonder whether anybody in the White House has driven by a gas station lately.

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      Well, at least he made a speech on energy – finally.

      The Democrats will do nothing to end American dependence on foreign oil by domestic exploration and drilling.

  • Pinboard Links

    Flap’s Links and Comments for March 30th on 11:06

    March 30, 2011 /

    These are my links for March 30th from 11:06 to 14:25: