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President 2012: Enter Mitch Daniels, Mike Huckabee and Michelle Bachman into the Race
According to Bill Kristol at the Weekly Standard.
Mitch Daniels is likely, I’m told, to announce his candidacy for the GOP presidential nomination in the next couple of weeks. Michelle Bachman will, I think, enter the race in June. And it now looks as if Mike Huckabee is also going to run.
Saturday evening, while tout Washington was “enjoying” the White House Correspondents Dinner—and while some of us, I might add, were truly enjoying the lovely wedding of Mary Katharine Ham and Jake Brewer—Mike Huckabee was speaking to the annual meeting of the National Rifle Association in Pittsburgh. It was the right place to be if you’re interested in the GOP presidential nomination. And by all accounts Huckabee gave a very effective speech, striking a populist tone while vigorously taking on Obama’s agenda across the board, linking social and economic issues, and asserting “I want you to know that I stand here tonight as a gun-clinger and as a God-clinger unapologetically.”
Mike Huckabee will enter as the front runner, especially in Iowa. Will Mitch Daniels compete there since Michelle Bachmann is a native Iowan or gear up for New Hampshire, where he will go up against Mitt Romney?
The next few weeks should get very interesting.
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Donald Trump, Michele Bachmann, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Polling, President 2012, Sarah Palin
President 2012 South Carolina GOP Poll Watch: Huckabee 20% Romney 18% Trump 13% Palin 10%
According to the latest ARG Poll.
- Mike Huckabee – 20%
- Mitt Romney – 18%
- Newt Gingrich – 9%
- Donald Trump – 13%
- Sarah Palin – 10%
- Michele Bachmann – 5%
Sample Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely Republican primary voters living in South Carolina (453 Republicans, 144 independents, and 3 Democrats).
Sample Dates: April 18-23, 2011
Margin of Error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.
So, the race is on in South Carolina, should Mike Huckabee decide to run for the Presidency.
Exit question: Where will Huck’s votes go if he decides NOT to run? How about Sarah Palins?
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Donald Trump, Michele Bachmann, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Polling, President 2012, Rudy Giuliani, Sarah Palin
President 2012 Iowa GOP Poll Watch: Huckabee 18% Romney 17% Gingrich 12% Trump 10% Bachmann 9% Giuliani 8% Palin 4%
According to the latest ARG Iowa Poll.Interesting to me is how well Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani do in relation to Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann who is a native Iowan.
But, polling in Iowa is tough because it is a caucus state and not a primary election.
Mike Huckabee won Iowa in 2008 and continues to lead the race. Will we have a repeat race between Huck and Romney or will Mitt concede Iowa and concentrate on Florida?
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President 2012 Iowa GOP Poll Watch: Huckabee 21% Romney 13.5% Trump 8.8% Gingrich 7.8% Palin 6.6% Bachmann 5.3%
According to the latest Neighborhood Research Poll.
A second ballot was then taken – excluding Mike Huckabee, Donald Trump and Sarah Palin.
And, a third ballot which included only these candidates: Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Tim Pawlenty, Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul.
So, what does this all mean?
1) Gingrich’s strength with the base, in spite of Scozzafava, the Pelosi ad and personal issues.
Despite no gain in the ballot test from January, he is clearly stronger with more conservative and
religious voters
2) Bachmann’s healthy showing and Pawlenty and Paul’s continued weak numbers
3) Cain’s better than expected numbers with conservative insiders, showing his ground game is
paying dividends.
4) Trump’s appeal to secular, more libertarian Republican voters is coming largely at Romney’s
expense.
5) Huckabee, Palin and Romney’s share drops since January is a sign voters are looking for a new
face and may be looking down on Huckabee and Palin’s lack of ground effort.
6) Neither Barbour nor Daniels has gained any traction thus far, and Santorum and Moore have
little. Johnson, Huntsman, Bolton and Roemer are non-existent.
7) Strong grass-roots support for the shutdown illustrates the ideological demands establishment
candidates will face, along with Congressional leaders.
In all reality, this poll is a mash of many numbers and possible scenarios. It simply points out that Huckabee would be a formidable candidate (should he run) and there is really no front runner in Iowa.
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Michele Bachmann, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Polling, President 2012, Rudy Giuliani, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty
President 2012 Florida GOP Poll Watch: Romney 18% Huckabee 18% Gingrich 18% Palin 15% Bachmann 7%
According to the latest PPP Poll.
- Mitt Romney – 18%
- Mike Huckabee – 18%
- Newt Gingrich – 18%
- Sarah Palin – 15%
- Michele Bachmann – 7%
- Ron Paul – 6%
- Tim Pawlenty – 6%
- Haley Barbour – 3%
But, Romney was thought of as the front runner in Florida since he won 31% of the vote in 2008 vs. only 13% for Mike Huckabee. So, Romney has fallen and Huckabee has increased some.
The reason Romney isn’t really proving to be the favorite in Florida is a lack of support from voters describing themselves as ‘very conservative,’ who at 40% constitute the largest share of the primary electorate in the state. Romney’s favorability with them is only 59%, placing him well behind Huckabee’s 81%, Gingrich’s 73%, Palin’s 71%, and even Ron Paul’s 60%. Only 12% of those voters say he’s their choice for the nomination, putting him firmly in fourth place.
Then, there are some other scenarios, should Huckabee and/or Palin not run. And, even with Rudy Giuliani in the field.
Testing a scenario in which Huckabee chose not to run, Gingrich leads Romney 24-23 with Palin at 19%. Testing a scenario in which Palin chose not to run, Huckabee leads with 24% to 22% for both Romney and Gingrich. In a scenario where both Huckabee and Palin sat the race out, Gingrich leads with 30% to 28% for Romney, 11% for Bachmann, and 10% for Pawlenty. Throwing Rudy Giuliani in the mix as a potential candidate you get basically a four way tie at the top with Huckabee, Gingrich, and Romney at 17%, Giuliani at 16%, and Palin at 11%.
So, what does this all mean?
Florida is up for grabs – no front runner.
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BREAKING: President 2012: Sarah Palin Set to Endorse Rep. Michele Bachmann for President
Activists hold a sign as Congresswoman
Michele Bachmann (R-MN) speaks at the Tea Party Patriots “Continuing
Revolution” rally on Capitol Hill in Washington March 31, 2011Well, maybe – eventually.But, you see I am taking a dental continuing education course at USC, eating lunch in the student lounge, watching fox News and was just sayin’.
April Fool – everyone.
I have no idea, if this may be prophetic though.
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President 2012: Barbour and Huckabee Sitting in a Tree….K I S S I N G?
GOP Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee
Politico has a story this morning about Mike Huckabee and Haley Barbour getting together in Mississippi for some type of meeting – implying it is about the 2012 Presidential race.Mike Huckabee hasn’t publicly declared whether he’ll run for president, but one likely Republican hopeful is already moving to woo the former Arkansas governor.
Representatives of Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour have been trying to set up a time with Huckabee aides for the two Southern governors and longtime friends to meet, POLITICO has learned.
Both were in Mississippi on Monday, but aides to both Republicans were cagey and declined to confirm whether the pair sat down together.
It’s a delicate topic for the two prospective candidates. Barbour wants to be respectful of Huckabee’s decision-making process and not be seen as pressuring the 2008 winner of the Iowa caucuses. And Huckabee, despite doing little of what he himself has said would be necessary to mount a campaign, wants to keep the possibility of running open and isn’t quite ready to play kingmaker.
But for all their aides’ coyness, the two principals have been openly flirting with one another in recent weeks.
Well, there is every indication that Mike Huckabee will NOT be a candidate for the Presidency in 2012 for various reasons and that Haley Barbour WILL be. With those facts out of the way, then why wouldn’t Barbour a southern governor try to solicit the support of Huckabee.
But, why the leak?
Does Mitt Romney feel threatened? (as he should, particularly with regards to Iowa and South Carolina)
Or, is Barbour, a shrewd political operative, trying to force Huckabee out and out quickly?
Could be either or both – but it won’t make any difference because Haley Barbour is going nowhere with Michele Bachmann in the race. She will win Iowa, Romney wins New Hampshire and unless Huckabee, Christie or Daniels runs, Romney will probably be the Bob Dole of 2012, losing to Obama by 6 points.
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Michele Bachmann, Mike Huckabee, Mitch Daniels, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Polling, President 2012, Sarah Palin
President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Mike Huckabee Has a Slight Edge.. But..
According to the latest Gallup poll.Mike Huckabee tops a large list of potential GOP presidential candidates in current support for the party’s 2012 nomination, with 19% of Republicans saying they are most likely to back him. This gives Huckabee a slight edge over Mitt Romney (15%). Sarah Palin is now at 12% after receiving 16% support in three prior Gallup polls. Newt Gingrich is the only other potential candidate who registers double-digit support. Sixteen percent of Republicans currently have no preference.
The March 18-22 poll of more than 1,000 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents was conducted as the field of candidates has yet to emerge. Since Gallup’s February measurement of nomination preferences, Gingrich and Tim Pawlenty have taken formal steps toward announcing their candidacies but have stopped short of doing so, and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann is reportedly going to follow suit by the summer.
There continues to be speculation about the leading candidates’ plans. Most political experts believe Romney will eventually enter the race, but questions remain about whether Huckabee and Palin will want to abandon their lucrative media careers to pursue the presidency.
But, if Huckabee decides not run – very likely in my opinion, then it is between Romney and Palin.
And, if Huckabee runs and Sarah Palin does not, then, Huck becomes the front-runner:
So, what does all of this mean?There continues to be no front-runner for the GOP Presidential nomination and various scenarios will play out should either Mike Huckabee or Sarah Palin decide to run or not.
I think the fact that Michele Bachman is gearing up for a possible run and that Dick Armey of the Tea Party organization, FreedomWorks, has said he could endorse Mitch Daniels may give an indication that there may soon be a different set of scenarios and candidates.
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President 2012 Video: Rep Michele Bachmann Running for President?
Just over ten months before next February’s Iowa caucuses Sarah Palin is returning from a recent trip to Israel. But Tea Party darling Rep. Michele Bachmann is already hitting the Hawkeye state capital.
Unlike Palin, all signs point to Bachmann running for the Republican presidential nomination later this year. In an Iowa version of ABC News’ “Subway Series” shot on the Des Moines city trolley, the Minnesota Republican told ABC’s Jonathan Karl, “I’m in.”Well, sort of.
“I’m in for 2012 in that I want to be a part of the conversation in making sure that President Obama only serves one term, not two, because I want to make sure that we get someone who’s going to be making the country work again. That’s what I’m in for,” Bachmann said.
“But I haven’t made a decision yet to announce, obviously, if I’m a candidate or not, but I’m in for the conversation.”
Michele will NOT be a serious candidate in 2012 but she is preparing for the future. What future that is will be anyone’s guess.
Exit question: With Sarah Palin out of the way, will the LEFT Press go after Bachmann as the next boogie woman on the RIGHT?
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President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Mike Huckabee Leading the GOP Field With Positive Intensity
According to the latest Gallup Poll.Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee leads the field of possible GOP presidential candidates in “positive intensity” among Republicans nationwide with a score of +25 among Republicans who are familiar with him, followed by Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota with a score of +20. Huckabee is recognized by 87% of Republicans, compared with Bachmann’s 52%. A number of other possible Republican presidential candidates trail these two in Positive Intensity Scores, including Sarah Palin, who is the best known of the group.
Here are the results:
As with a number of Presidential polls released within the past month, these results verify that there is NO front runner in the GOP Presidential field.
Michelle Bachmann is a bit of a surprise to me but is her intensity rating a spill-over from a Sarah Palin decline in the polls? Hard to say. But, if anything is clear, Mike Huckabee might be reconsidering whether he wants to give up that Saturday night Fox News gig.
And, poor Mitt Romney is hoping for a miracle.
But, who knows, with the GOP primary voters all split apart, who will emerge with sufficient numbers of delegates? I can see a scenario where there is a “brokered” convention, where it is uncertain as to who the GOP nominee will be.
Here are the Republican candidate images among Republicans and GOP-leaning independents:
Here is a chart:
One last chart, Republican candidate images with a combination of recognition and favorability questions:
Again, what does this all mean?- No front runner in the GOP Presidential field.
- Rep. Michelle Bachmann has emerged with intense feelings among the GOP faithful but with h less recognition
- Mike Huckabee continues to lead the field, despite the likelyhood of him running is more remote.
If I were Huckabee this morning, I would be meeting with advisers. If I were Mitt Romney, I would be planning for a convention-based campaign after primary votes are scattered all over different candidates.
At this stage of the race for 2012, the GOP might be looking at a long primary season.
