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President 2012 GOP Poll Watch:Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney Tied at 16%, Tim Pawlenty at 13%, Michele Bachmann at 9%
According to the latest PPP Poll.
Even as the Republican field for president really starts to take final shape, there truly is no frontrunner, perhaps more than ever before. And several longshot contenders are getting significant traction in this unclear environment, while others decline. Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin share the lead at 16% in PPP’s latest national poll of Republican primary voters, with Tim Pawlenty at 13%, Herman Cain at 12%, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, and Michele Bachmann at 9% each, and Jon Huntsman at 4%.
While her potential candidacy has received renewed speculation in the last week, if Palin does not make a bid, it would boost Romney to 20%, Gingrich and Bachmann to 13%, and Paul to 11%, with the other three running in place.
PPP surveyed 574 usual Republican primary voters nationwide from May 23rd to 25th .The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.1%
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President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Romney Leads on Issues, Palin on Social Values
According to the latest Gallup Poll.Mitt Romney, one of the two leaders for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination, receives generally equal support across Republican political issue groups. Sarah Palin, the other leader, has a more segmented appeal, with greater support among Republicans most concerned about social and moral issues, and less interest from Republicans focused on government spending and power.
The largest segment of Republicans (36%) continue to say government spending and power is their top concern. Romney does best in this segment, followed by a group of four candidates between 10% and 13% support. Herman Cain, the less well-known candidate — who nevertheless generates a good deal of positive intensity among those who know him — does slightly better than Newt Gingrich, Palin, or Ron Paul within this issue group. Paul, an avowed libertarian, has made the push for restraining government power the hallmark of his political career, but he does not have an unusually strong position among these Republicans.
There has been some talk around the nets that Sarah Palin’s latest bus tour is a charade and that after she milks the media or attention and adoration will withdraw and endorse Herman Cain. Interesting, because Herman Cain has been drawing a lot of attention around Tea party circles.
The second-most-prevalent group consists of Republicans whose most salient issue is business and the economy (31%). Republicans in this group are most likely to favor Romney and Palin, with Paul and Gingrich lagging slightly behind. Romney is the only major GOP candidate who has an MBA and is one of the few candidates who have extensive experience in the corporate world. Cain’s experience includes his position as CEO of Godfather’s Pizza, but he does not do particularly well among Republicans whose main interest is business and the economy.
Fifteen percent of Republicans say their main political interest is social issues and moral values. Mike Huckabee dominated as the candidate of choice among this group in previous months, and his announcement on May 14 that he would not be running therefore left a void. Palin now fares best among this group, receiving 23% support, followed by Romney at 18% and Paul at 11%. No other candidate gets double-digit support. In April, Huckabee led with 26% support among this group, while Palin received 18%.
Another 15% of Republicans say national security and foreign policy is their biggest concern. Romney and Palin tie for the lead among this group, with Cain coming in third, slightly ahead of Gingrich.
Without a doubt Sarah Palin entering the race will be a game changer. It means that Tim Pawlenty and Jon Huntsman will be dead as an alternative to the “establishment candidate” in Mitt Romney. Michele Bachmann will remain a wild card since she will command a large presence in Iowa, the first GOP caucus state.
And, here is a poll of GOP issue priorities:
So, what does this all mean?
Romney’s roughly equal appeal among the four issue-defined segments of Republicans is one of the most interesting outcomes of this research. Romney in general has high favorable ratings and low unfavorable ratings, but he does not generate the same type of intense feelings as do other candidates. These data suggest that Romney does well among Republicans in all four issue segments, but doesn’t have unusually strong appeal in any.
Palin, on the other hand has a more segmented appeal. With Huckabee’s departure from the GOP race, she now fares best among Republicans who say social and moral issues are their top concern, and essentially ties for first among those who favor business and the economy and national security/foreign policy. Palin, however, lags among the largest group of Republicans — those most focused on government spending and power.
Cain, overall one of Republicans’ top five choices for their party’s nomination, despite being recognized by only a third of Republicans, places strongly among Republicans whose most important issue is government spending and power. Cain also does well among national security and foreign policy-interested Republicans.
The other two candidates among Republicans’ top five choices for the nomination — Paul and Gingrich — do not have highly segmented positioning across the GOP interest groups. Paul does less well among those interested in national security and foreign policy, and Gingrich does less well among those interested in social and moral values.
I say it is likely to see a Mitt Romney versus Sarah Palin face-off for the GOP nomination, unless the Bush donors tire of Romney. Then, at this late date, they will try to coerce Chris Christie into the race. In that case, Sarah Palin may win in a three-way contest.
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President 2012 GOP Poll Watch: Romney 17% Vs. Palin 15%
According to the latest Gallup Poll.Mitt Romney (17%) and Sarah Palin (15%) now lead a smaller field of potential Republican presidential candidates in rank-and-file Republicans’ preferences for the party’s 2012 nominee. Ron Paul, Newt Gingrich, and Herman Cain essentially tie for third, with Cain registering 8% support in his initial inclusion in Gallup “trial heat” polling. Notably, 22% of Republicans do not have a preference at this point.
Poll such as this must be scaring the GOP Establishment. Polling results with this field show a “weak” Mitt Romney who is the “Establishment” candidate, now that Huckabee and Daniels have decided not to run.
It is Interesting that Michele Bachmann who has given every indication that she WILL run is not polling better, especially since she is easily identified as a Tea Party candidate.
Again, this is a national poll, with the race starting in Iowa (where Michele Bachmann will run strong and Mitt Romney won’t) and with the uncertainty as to whether Sarah Palin will run, take the poll for what it is worth.
In the short term, Romney and Palin seem to have benefited most from several prominent potential Republican candidates’ decisions not to run for president. Should Palin follow suit and not enter the race, Romney would be the clear front-runner, but arguably the weakest front-runner in any recent Republican nomination campaign.
As such, the race remains wide open, which is underscored by the fact that one in five Republicans currently have no preference. -
President 2012: Tea Party’s FreedomWorks’ Goal is to Stop Mitt Romney
Former GOP Rep. Dick Armey of FreedomWorks and Mitt Romney
Yes, and why would it be any other way? Mitt Romney is NOT a Tea Party candidate, but a GOP establishment one.A top goal of the nation’s most influential national Tea Party group is to stop Mitt Romney from winning the Republican nomination for president.
Interviews with top officials at FreedomWorks, a Washington-based organizing hub for Tea Party activists around the country, revealed that much of their thinking about the 2012 election revolves around derailing the former Massachusetts governor.
“Romney has a record and we don’t really like it that much,” said Adam Brandon, the group’s communications director.
FreedomWorks is led by former House Majority Leader Dick Armey (R-Texas) and Matt Kibbe, an economist and former Capitol Hill aide. More than 30 employees, as well as a fresh class of several interns, work out of spacious seventh floor offices near the U.S. Capitol. The group knows they cannot impose their will on the fiercely independent conservative organizers fueling the Tea Party. But they say the activist base is just as anti-Romney as they are.
Kibbe said in an interview that FreedomWorks has no plans at the moment to endorse an opponent of Romney’s in the primary. But others in the organization made clear they will devote considerable resources toward helping whoever emerges as the most viable Republican in the primary other than the putative front runner.
Brendan Steinhauser, who travels around the country meeting with activists as FreedomWorks’ top liaison to the grassroots, said most people he talks to are “definitely trying to stop Romney.”
The Tea Party in 2012 will have one or two choices: Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachman or former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin. Bachmann for sure is running and Palin, as of today looks like it, but may wait until the late summer to announce.
Either of them will give Mitt Romney a race in Iowa and South Carolina. I, only see Palin, should she run, going beyond South Carolina at this point.
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Day By Day May 22, 2011 – Gladiatrix
Day By Day by Chris MuirChris, with it becoming more apparent that Sarah Palin will be a candidate for President in 2012, the GOP will have to decide whether they want to go forward with a 2008 retread in Mitt Romney or try a Tea Party candidate that will bring the fight against Big Government to the Democrats.Perhaps it won’t be Sarah but, maybe it will be Michele Bachmann. Americans will have a choice and a “real” alternative to the LEFT policies of Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid.
Will GOP voters pull the trigger?
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President 2012: The 2012 GOP Presidential Field is Set?
Republican Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty announces he is running for President in Des Moines, Iowa, May 23, 2011
High-level Republican leaders tell POLITICO that they now believe the top tier of the presidential field is set, and that no major donors or operatives will remain on the sidelines hoping a dream candidate will make a last-minute entry.
These leaders calculate that they are better off to accept the Mitch Daniels-less field as it is and not continue to waffle, letting President Barack Obama continue to build strength while the GOP dawdles.
“The waiting is over,” said Ed Gillespie, a former Republican National Committee chairman and counselor to President George W. Bush. “Things are going to accelerate pretty quickly now.”
“You’re seeing everything you’re going to get,” said a Republican who has talked privately with the leading candidates.
The energy in the party, of course, is currently in the tea-party and social conservative wings—there’s support in those quarters for Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.), who is increasingly looking like a candidate, and Sarah Palin, whose plans are a mystery.
And a group of Iowa GOP donors is scheduled to travel to New Jersey at the end of the month to encourage Gov. Chris Christie to run.
But the GOP establishment is now convinced that Mitt Romney is the front-runner, and that Tim Pawlenty and Jon Huntsman have a narrow window to determine who will become the stronger alternative – the anti-Mitt in the GOP field.
It will be Mitt Romney versus Tim Pawlenty in one semi-final contests to face off against Michele Bachman or Sarah Palin. Romney is the most likely victor here with T-Paw or Mitt Daniels as the Vice President selection.
Two game changers would be Sarah Palin and Chris Christie but despite some overtures for him to run, I think he probably stays out.
But, this from Romney advisors is kind of strange. Sarah Palin is unpredictable and why antagonize the Mama Grizzly?
In an interview with Fox’s Sean Hannity last week, Palin said she was “still seriously considering it.”
Republicans officials have no idea what she’s planning, although they agree she would have tons to lose by entering a race that would cost her the mystique she has built up. And Romney advisers said her entry would help the former Massachusetts governor dramatically.
“The shock value would cause elected officials and party officials to rally around Mitt, because she’d scare the daylights out of them,” one official said. “And it would allow him to position himself very much in the middle of Republican, conservative thinking and avoid the fringe, and look more moderate for the general election.”
Bachmann would have the same effect, the advisers said. Either of them “gives Romney a bogeyman: ‘Stop this crazy woman.’”
Another top Republican said he relishes the idea of a Palin candidacy: “She’ll be defeated, and we’ll be done with her.”I think Sarah Palin would be able to defeat Michele Bachmann in Iowa and then South Carolina becomes the battleground, where Romney could finish third or fourth. The race could then blow up and drag on for weeks or months – something the GOP can ill-afford against Obama.
It is probably better for the Romney staff to keep their mouths shut and ask Sarah to give some speeches and do some fundraising for them.
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Michele Bachmann, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Polling, President 2012, Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani, Tim Pawlenty
President 2012 New Hampshire GOP Poll Watch: Romney 32% Paul 9% Gingrich 6% Palin 5% Bachmann 4%
According to the latest University of New Hampshire/WMUR/CNN Poll.
Primary Election Head to Head:
- Romney 32%
- Paul 9%
- Gingrich 6%
- Giuliani 6%
- Palin 5%
- Bachmann 4%
- Cain 4%
- Daniels # 4%
- Huntsman 4%
- Pawlenty 4%
- Santorum 2%
- Johnson *
- Someone else 3%
- No opinion 17%
* Less than 1% # Daniels announced that he would not run on last day of interviewing.
Satisfied with GOP candidates? – Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the choice of candidates for the Republican nomination for President next year? Are you
very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
- Very satisfied 9%
- Somewhat satisfied 42%
- Somewhat dissatisfied 28%
- Very dissatisfied 15%
- No opinion 6%
Strongest GOP Leader:
- Romney 40%
- Giuliani 12%
- Gingrich 11%
- Palin 3%
- Paul 3%
- Pawlenty 3%
- Bachmann 2%
- Cain 1%
- Daniels 1%
- Santorum 1%
- Huntsman *
- Johnson *
- Someone else 2%
- No opinion 20%
Most Believable GOP candidate:
- Romney 20%
- Paul 12%
- Gingrich 7%
- Palin 6%
- Bachmann 5%
- Cain 5%
- Giuliani 5%
- Pawlenty 5%
- Huntsman 4%
- Daniels 3%
- Santorum 2%
- Someone else 2%
- No opinion 23%
Most Likeable GOP candidate:
- Romney 29%
- Palin 10%
- Giuliani 8%
- Paul 7%
- Bachmann 6%
- Pawlenty 6%
- Gingrich 4%
- Cain 3%
- Huntsman 2%
- Santorum 2%
- Daniels 1%
- Johnson *
- Karger *
- Roemer *
- Someone else 3%
- No opinion 17%
Best GOP candidate to beat President Obama:
- Romney 42%
- Giuliani 4%
- Pawlenty 4%
- Daniels 3%
- Gingrich 3%
- Palin 3%
- Bachmann 2%
- Cain 2%
- Huntsman 2%
- Paul 1%
- Santorum 1%
- Someone else 2%
- No opinion 31%
Is there any doubt that Mitt Romney is far and above any other candidate in New Hampshire?
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President 2012: The Pros and Cons of Mitch Daniels
On the positive side, he’s been a successful governor, implemented health-care reform that doesn’t rely on forcing people to buy insurance they don’t want, has a strong education plan and has won two statewide elections. In other words, his track record is nearly as good as Tim Pawlenty’s. He is smart, articulate, good with facts and figures, and is, by any measure, a serious candidate. In his gubernatorial runs he proved to be a very effective, down-to-earth candidate that could relate to relatively non-ideological, middle-class voters, the very ones who will be up for grabs in 2012. He is solidly grounded in a limited-government perspective. He has been an outspoken opponent of cap-and-trade.
On the downside, he seems to have gone out of his way to needlessly antagonize social conservatives with his “truce” talk and anger hawks, by embracing defense cuts and suggesting America should do less in the world. He appears overly eager to seek the advice of and incur the approval of non-conservative elites. The prospect of Secretary of State Dick Lugar sends chills up the spine of many conservatives. According to many former Bush officials, he does not take input from anyone — subordinates, colleagues and certainly not critics. (The conviction that one is the “smartest man in the room” leads one to ignore important criticism and pile the miscues.) He has indicated his receptivity to a value-added tax. His tenure as George W. Bush’s OMB director may be a liability not a strength in this election. And finally, his tunnel vision on debt control, if adhered to in office, would wind up lacking focus on economic growth andsacrificing many other issues important to conservatives (e.g. judges,right-to-work).
But, Jennifer, who has never been a Daniels fan and who favors a run by Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin or New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, looks at Daniels in a vacuum. The primary election will be a face off between Daniels (if and when he decides to run) and Mitt Romney.
With Mike Huckabee out, there will be a vacuum on the RIGHT which either Michele Bachmann or Sarah Palin or both will fill. Paul Ryan and Chris Christie will NOT be running and it is doubtful that they will enter the race with these four candidates, plus Ron Paul and Tim Pawlenty in the race. Jennifer gives a hopeful, but flawed analysis.
These (Daniels Vs. Romney and Palin Vs. Bachmann) will be the semi-final races going into Super Tuesday and beyond.
So, Jennifer, who would you support Daniels or Romney? Who would be the better candidate against President Obama?
I would submit a ticket of Romney-Daniels or Daniels-Bachmann would make a very interesting team going into the summer of 2012.
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Day By Day, Michele Bachmann, Mike Huckabee, Mitch Daniels, Mitt Romney, President 2012, Sarah Palin
Day By Day May 17, 2011 – The Real Individual Mandate
Chris, I have for months downplayed the notion that Sarah Palin will run for the 2012 Presidency. Now, I am not so sure.With Mike Huckabee out, there is a vacuum for social conservatives on the RIGHT. Michele Bachmann is ramping up her campaign and she has the conservative cred but she cannot ignite a crowd like Sarah Palin.
Ultimately, it may be a Mitch Daniels Vs. Mitt Romney contest for the moderate candidate and Bachmann Vs. Palin for the conservative. This will be the semi-final contest and we may have to wait until late next spring to see who wins – maybe even the convention itself.
It will be a bumpy ride for the GOP and exciting at the same time.
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The Day By Day Archive -
Chris Christie, John Kasich, Michele Bachmann, Mike Huckabee, Mitch Daniels, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, President 2012, Sarah Palin, Scott Walker
President 2012: Huckabee is Out – Michele, Newt and Mitch In?
The presidential nominating process is a lot like the US Open tennis tournament. There is a final (the Republican v. Obama), a semifinal (the top conservative against the top moderate for the GOP nomination) and a quarter final (the conservatives against each other and the moderates competing together for the right to enter the semis).
Mitt Romney and Donald Trump are centrists. Businessmen, economic growth free market types who will vie with each other for the moderate nomination. In 2008, Romney fought and lost to Huckabee for the conservative nod to oppose McCain. But, because of his health care position, he now has to fight it out on the moderate court.
Mike Huckabee’s withdrawal opens the way on the right court for Gingrich, Bachmann, and Daniels. Had Mike run, he would have easily carried the day and faced Romney/Trump for the nomination. But, with Mike out, it’s an open field.
Bachmann has the most to gain from Huckabee’s withdrawal. Polling shows that the Tea Party types and the evangelicals are more or less the same people. With Mike out, Michele has a clear shot at their support (once they get over Herman Cain and Ron Paul, neither of whom can win — and Paul shouldn’t win). As the odd-woman-out dissenting from the Boehner deals with Obama, holding out for fiscal conservatism and tough Republican bargaining, she can pick up a lot of ground in a hurry.
Gingrich’s announcement puts the onus on him to dispel the negatives that dog his campaign. All agree that he would be the best opponent to Obama in a debate and that he is the brightest, best candidate would have. But many are scared off because of the negatives. He has six months to show them that they are wrong.
And then there is Mitch Daniels, potentially, the conservative establishment’s answer to Romney. Despite an absence of charisma, his extraordinary record as governor puts him right in the thick of the hunt for the nomination. He, along with his supporters (Scott Walker of Wisconsin, Chris Christie of New Jersey, and John Kasich of Ohio), have walked the walk not just talked the talk. His candidacy is a most attractive one.
And, if Sarah Palin decides to come in now, I would say the battle for the social conservatives will really heat up.
Newt Gingrich with his personal baggage should be used as a foil against Obama but he is unelectable – too old and too damaged.
Mitt Romney will have to compete in Iowa and will probably take a loss there even with Huckabee not in the race. Romney will be vulnerable in South Carolina too –then on to Florida.
Exit question: Will Mitch Daniels with Scott Walker, John Kasich and Chris Christie endorsing him be able to beat Michele Bachmann in Iowa?